BIRMINGHAM, England — Liz Truss campaigned for the Conservative leadership on a message of hope. This is a rare quality among his devotees.

The mood at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham this week was grim, as Tories unconvinced by Truss’ economic agenda despaired of their chances of winning the next election.

“What I think more and more is that we are going to accept our fate. She will just shrivel up – her administration and her ability to do anything will shrivel up,” said a former government aide.

A Minister added: “A lot of people are waiting for his speech now. If it’s crap, and it’s wooden as usual, it could be curtains.

Signs for Truss – is due to deliver his conference address late Wednesday morning – are a bad omen. Since its tax cut ‘mini-budget’ plunged the pound and rattled financial markets, the opposition Labor Party has taken the lead in the polls.

The Prime Minister – who entered No 10 saying she was not afraid to make unpopular decisions – has already been forced into multiple policy reversals. Most explosive was a late-night U-turn on controversial plans to cut the top tax rate, an idea that had sparked open revolt among his backbench MPs.

His media appearances were also unconvincing, and this week the normally favorable Daily Mail ransacked his leadership.

More worryingly, discipline among his top ministers appears to be breaking down. As Truss pondered a real cut in welfare on Tuesday, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt argued on Times Radio that it actually “makes sense” for payments to increase with inflation. Truss’ Welsh secretary Robert Buckland told reporters the “safety net” was “important”. Immediately, Truss’ fledgling plan seemed dead on arrival.

In this context, the future of Truss seems perilous. Former Cabinet Minister Grant Shapps, who backed his rival Rishi Sunak in the recent leadership race, warned“I don’t think the MPs — Conservatives – if they see the polls continue as they are, will sit on their hands. We would find a way to make that change.

Certainly, the Conservative Party is renowned for its ruthlessness, having killed its last two leaders in just over three years. Would the deputies really have the courage to start all over again?

‘Catastrophic’

Some are optimistic about the idea. “It is quite clear that this has been the most disastrous start to a government that can be remembered,” said a senior Tory MP.

Another, pointing to the polls, added: “If we are faced with a choice between extinction and change, the party will choose change.

The same minister quoted above confirmed there was already ‘a lot of chatter’ about censorship letters sent to Conservative backbench leader Graham Brady. Bloomberg reported one of these letters had already been sent.

Technically, Truss is immune from challenge for a full year under current party rules. Only after this, if 15% of all Tory MPs submitted letters to Brady’s backbench committee in 1922, would its executive members meet to discuss a vote of confidence in the leader.

But another minister warned: “If things get bad enough, the rules can be changed or tampered with. If Graham Brady receives 80 letters of censure, I can’t imagine him sitting on his hands.

A senior Tory official who met the famous tight-lipped Brady last month said he had pointed out that there would be a potentially busy month ahead. Brady reportedly just rolled his eyes and replied, “Who can tell?”

An additional complication that may work in the prime minister’s favor is that the executive cannot meet until October 18, when new MPs will be added to its roster. Several former members of the executive who gave Boris Johnson headaches have now been given ministerial posts under Truss and cannot serve.

Brady has already demonstrated his influence over the new administration, having apparently taken it upon himself on Sunday night to inform Truss in person that his tax cut for the wealthy would not fly. His U-turn quickly followed.

Who’s next?

If Conservative MPs work the nerve and create a mechanism — to get rid of their new leader quickly, some think they shouldn’t then risk repeating the bloody two-month leadership contest that unfolded over the summer.

“It would have to be a coronation,” warned a minister. “We can’t spend another six weeks tearing ourselves apart while Labor are 30 points ahead in the polls.”

But it’s unclear how such a bitterly divided party could possibly unite around a single successor. Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, whose recent leadership bid has disappointed many colleagues, has retreated into the shadows, keeping himself out of the press and the Birmingham conference.

Some have mentioned former cabinet minister Michael Gove – an outside bet, having failed twice before – and even Shapps, seen as competent and a decent media performer.

Some names are now pushed openly into the boardroom. In another sign of party indiscipline, Truss’s recently appointed trade minister, Conor Burns, told a side event that his former leadership rival Kemi Badenoch was “the future of our party”.

Also in the background is Boris Johnson, about whom rumors of a possible return had begun even before he took office. Although he also stayed away from Birmingham, Johnson’s presence was keenly felt. Even MPs who still support Truss were eager to publicize the fact that he had been named chair of the Conservative Friends of Ukraine this week.

lose the will

But others think the idea of ​​defenestrating Truss so soon is a no-start.

“The country would think we were crazy,” said one MP, who observed that the recency of Johnson’s ousting was the main thing protecting her.

Indeed, a sort of fatalism has begun to creep in among some conservatives who believe that an electoral desert is looming after 12 years in power.

“People will walk away, they won’t care, they know their seats are going to go. People will lose the will to fight,” the same ex-assistant quoted above said.

A former No 10 official, who served under the previous four Tory prime ministers since 2010, added: ‘It feels like it’s over – and maybe that’s healthy. It has been a long time.”

Already, Truss’ options seem limited, given his rapidly diminishing authority over an unruly party. One idea being floated is a reset of her No. 10 operation, or even a Cabinet reshuffle she appointed just a month ago.

Speaking at a side event, former Brexit minister David Frost said: “The team around him already needs a refresh, and maybe some new voices. It’s obvious that the party is a bit unhappy, and there must be some contact.”

A senior cabinet minister has suggested that Truss may even be forced to go for the nuclear option.

“I have a horrible feeling that this is just the tip of the iceberg,” they said. “[Her critics] can be a real drag on her, so that she finds herself in a checkmate position, where she is forced to go to the elections.

But another cabinet minister walked away from that idea, saying an election was the last thing most Tory MPs wanted given the alarming state of the polls.

They acknowledged the situation was “difficult”, but insisted that Truss had the “resilience to pull through” after eight years at the top of government.

Truss would run Downing Street ‘more like a real office and not like a court’, the favorable minister said, comparing it to Johnson’s No 10 operation which was run like a ‘large Grace Brothers store – different people at each floor with their own little agenda.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman, another Truss ally, told POLITICO: ‘I just hope this is the last of the Tories’ infighting and we can focus on the battle ahead… This is just indulgent, a waste of time and very, very damaging.”

Several MPs posited that Truss’ current situation was at least likely to be her lowest ebb, and that things would surely improve now as she finds space to deliver her message and the polls of opinion would stabilize.

Even among the most supportive MPs, the bar is set pretty low. As one put it, the party’s best hope now was that Truss would recover slightly and “lead us to a worthy defeat.”

Eleni Courea, Emilio Casalicchio, Annabelle Dickson and Ailbhe Rea contributed reporting.