1. Faster Global Growth? - The International Monetary Fund expects faster global growth this year - 3.4% against 2016's 3.1%. It's forecasting a further rise to 3.6% by 2018, but the Fund is warm-ning that there are a large number of risks that could derail that recovery.
2. A Shift In US Tax And Spending Policy? - One big uncertainty is the impact of a change in US tax and spending policy. President elect Trump has talked of tax cuts and much greater infrastructure spending. Some economists think that could push US growth sharply higher.
3. Can China's Rebalancing Continue? - Over recent years, Chinese growth has switched from exports to domestic demand. Supporting this has been very high growth in credit (20% per annum). Some view this as benign - an effective recycling of high Chinese savings. Others, including the IMF, warn it could end in tears.
4. Can Europe Weather Political Storms? - in 2016, the eurozone probably grew by 1.8%. That was too weak to make much of a dent in unemployment. The EU expects similar growth this year. But uncertainty due to elections in France, Germany, the Netherlands and, possibly, Italy, could act as a drag.
5. Will Battles Over Trade Undermine Growth? - After weak growth in 2016, international trade is set to expand more quickly. But it's unlikely to meet the long term average of 5% a year. And with the US raising concerns about unfair trade, there's a risk trade tensions could undermine the recovery.
