As the NBA approaches its midseason point, regression is settling in for fluky stat lines or performances. Slow starts are becoming disappointing seasons; fast starts are now breakout campaigns; led by Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, the Boston Celtics look legit. With that said, I’ve assembled a roundtable of Def Pen NBA writers focused on midseason award picks and intriguing storylines among other things.
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Let’s dive in.
What’s been the biggest pleasant surprise this year for you?
Saahil Pawar: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s evolution into a top scorer (All stats as of Dec. 31).
Though Giannis Antetokounmpo’s standing as a top talent in the NBA was never in question, his ceiling as a scorer without a consistent jump shot was. Those questions have been quelled as the Greek Freak is averaging 29.1 points per game, good for second in the league behind MVP frontrunner James Harden. Antetokounmpo is pouring in nearly 30 a night on less 3-pointers made and attempted per game than last year and with an additional complementary star in Eric Bledsoe.
Dylan Enfield: Tobias Harris
It didn’t take a detective to know that the rest of the Detroit Pistons’ players would get more touches/shots after the team’s two biggest ball-stoppers, Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, were off the roster. As a Pistons fan, I’ve always known Tobias could take on the role as a No. 1 option, but the way he has come into his own as a scorer has even caught me off guard. He did come from Orlando, so an improvement on pretty much any other NBA team was evident, but Harris has raised his 3-point percentage 13 percent since his last season in Orlando and never takes a shot he knows he can’t make. He has cooled off quite a bit since the beginning of the season, so an All-Star berth is off the table at this point, but Harris has been nothing short of spectacular this season.
Mike Anguilano: Indiana Pacers staying afloat without Paul George
When you trade away a player like Paul George, the expectation is not to be a playoff team still. However, that is exactly what the Pacers have done. Victor Oladipo has quickly made Pacers fans forget about George. Myles Turner is one of the more underrated young players in the league. Head Coach Nate McMillan, who caught flack last year, has Indiana playing surprisingly well.
Tony East: New York Knicks in the playoff hunt sans Carmelo Anthony (All stats as of Jan. 1).
How about the Knicks? They have been one of the most surprising teams to me. They traded away Carmelo Anthony and expectations for them were very low. They also have a lackluster point guard rotation and little depth on the wings. All the signs pointed to them being awful. They now sit at 18-18 thanks to a much-improved Kristaps Porzingis and better than expected play from pretty much everyone. It has been very interesting to see the Knicks succeed.
Zack Geoghegan: Impressive crop of rookies
The biggest pleasant surprise for me this year has been the overall play of the rookie class. Everyone already had an idea coming into the season that this year’s rookies would be better than past seasons, but this has been unprecedented. From Kyle Kuzma and Donovan Mitchell quickly becoming their team’s most reliable offensive weapons, with Jayson Tatum never missing a shot, to Jordan Bell proving the Chicago Bulls wrong and much much more. This year’s batch of rookies has the future of the NBA in great hands.
David Morrow: Jayson Tatum’s play (All stats as of Dec. 29).
Can I be biased? I’m going to be biased. JAYSON TATUM!!! Hayward’s tragic injury has forced Tatum to play in a starting role from day one and he’s thrived. The poise, fluidity and consistency that I’ve seen in Tatum’s game is something that I literally don’t think I’ve ever seen from a rookie. It’s nuts. He’s shooting 47.5 percent from beyond the arc. The Celtics have played almost 40 games; we’re well past the low-sample-size days. He’s averaging 14.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game and has actually been good on the defensive end. The Fultz trade is looking amazing for Boston. Never doubt Danny Ainge.
Daniel Richardson: Kyle Kuzma’s scoring prowess (All stats as of Jan. 2).
What Kyle Kuzma has been able to do since Summer League is nothing short of impressive. I admit that I originally believed it to be a flash in the pan, but the more I watch the Lakers play, the more I’m impressed with his natural ability to put up points without consistently stepping out of the confines of the offense. Kuzma is going to be able to score for a long time in this league.
Orazio Cauchi: Victor Oladipo’s emergence
Victor Oladipo, definitely the MVP among the normal ones so far. It’s definitely something that I didn’t see coming.
Honi Ahmadian: Victor Oladipo leading a scrappy Pacers team
The only correct answer is Victor Oladipo and the Indiana Pacers. I hadn’t given up on Dipo, but it certainly seemed like he had stagnated a bit. At the very least, he didn’t look like the best player on a playoff caliber team. And yet, here we are with Oladipo (as well as Myles Turner) leading the way for the Pacers to get back to the playoffs despite Paul George leaving the team. This might be the story of the season so far.
What’s been the biggest disappointment this season for you?
SP: Andrew Wiggins’ regression (All stats as of Dec. 31).
Even with the addition of Jimmy Butler, fourth-year man Andrew Wiggins was expected to continue his development toward NBA stardom. Instead, the Kansas product has regressed in nearly every major category. Though his 23.7 points per game pace from last season was unsustainable with Butler now in the fold, no one saw a near-six-points-per-game drop out of the electrifying wing. Along with the scoring decrease, Wiggins’ field goal percentage has dropped, as well as his rebounding and assists numbers, plus he’s posting a putrid 61.8 percent mark from the charity stripe.
DE: Charlotte Hornets’ decline (All stats as of Jan. 3).
Going into the season, I predicted Charlotte would fall outside of the playoff race and end up with the ninth seed, so I’ve never really been high on anyone on their roster besides Kemba Walker. However, I wouldn’t have been surprised if they slipped in as one of the last playoff teams in the East. Instead, they’ve taken bad to a whole new level, and are currently closer to the worst record in the league than a playoff spot. They don’t have much spacing outside of Kemba, Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky, Malik Monk has been an absolute disaster, Nicolas Batum can’t stay healthy and nothing has gone right for a Charlotte team that looked to be on the way up a couple seasons ago.
MA: Oklahoma City’s mediocrity
This will be the consensus choice for many fans. A lineup that features Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony being this pedestrian is tough to watch. To make matters even tougher, this team is running against the clock with George and Anthony able to opt-out after the season. What appeared to be a Western Conference powerhouse, OKC has a lot of work to do in order to make some noise in the playoffs.
TE: Andrew Wiggins plateauing
Choosing between Memphis and Charlotte was too hard for me, so I went with a player instead: Andrew Wiggins. It’s not that I expected him to be good because he has never been good, but I did expect him to be better as a third option on Minnesota. A career low in field goal percentage, rebounds, assists and his lowest scoring output since his rookie year are all disappointing. Even with his physical tools, his defense is not good. In fact, it’s awful. His max contract looks worse and worse every day. He has been very disappointing.
ZG: Charlotte’s struggles
My biggest disappointment so far has been the Charlotte Hornets (and not just because I predicted them to make the playoffs). They had all the potential for this to be a cornerstone season in their franchise’s history, but they just couldn’t get things rolling. Whether it was ill-timed injuries or the team’s inability to do literally anything without Kemba Walker, the Hornets have drastically underwhelmed relative to what they were capable of coming into the season.
DM: Los Angeles Clippers (All stats as of Dec. 29).
I guess the Clippers? I was really excited to watch #PointBlake with no CP3, but injuries have derailed this team. I feel like a lot of people are going to pick OKC for this one, but A) I wasn’t expecting too much from them anyway, and B) They’ve won six straight now.
Honorable mention: The Bulls, who can’t even tank right.
DR: Sacramento’s abysmal season
The Kings. I know it’s weird to say, but I still don’t understand why Sacramento signed George Hill this past offseason. De’Aaron Fox not playing as much as other rookie point guards like Mitchell in Utah and Dennis Smith Jr. in Dallas hasn’t been my favorite thing about this season.
OC: Washington’s inconsistency
The Washington Wizards. For a team that wants to be a contender in the Eastern Conference, the Wizards are still living too many ups and downs. Winning against great teams is a good sign, but taking bad losses against sub-.500 teams mean that this team is still not ready to give their best every single night. Of course, it happens to have bad nights during an 82-game regular season but if you don’t show a certain kind of effort in every single game you’re going to play, you’re not going to make many roads in the playoffs.
HA: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s poor play
As a Lakers fan, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been mostly disappointing. His perimeter defense is a large part of the Lakers’ improvements overall on that end, but offensively he’s made no improvements and has regressed in certain areas. KCP handling the ball on the break gives me a nightly heart attack and his pick-and-roll playmaking (a skill coming into the season) has been abysmal. He took a one-year prove-it deal with the Lakers but KCP may have lost a ton of money this season.
What’s been the most compelling storyline in your mind?
SP: Kyrie Irving’s Celtics
Through the first parts of the season, the Kyrie Irving experiment has worked wonders for the Boston Celtics. The flashy point guard is maintaining his impressive numbers from his days with the Cleveland Cavaliers and is showing increased presence on the defensive end. The Celtics’ torrid start could be unsustainable, however, and it has shown in recent weeks as they’ve visibly slowed down on both ends as Irving’s defensive motivation begins to dwindle, making this team as intriguing as ever.
DE: Historic rookie class
I said before that Ben Simmons should win ROY if he continues to put up unreal numbers, but nothing is given in this league, and the other rookies in this class have made that known. Kyle Kuzma has come out of nowhere to become arguably the best true rookie in the class, Donovan Mitchell has single-handedly made the Utah Jazz a watchable team with Gordon Hayward gone and Rudy Gobert being sidelined for most of the season thus far, and Jayson Tatum has filled in admirably for the injured Hayward all season. Lonzo Ball has shown vision we haven’t seen from a rookie since Magic and LaVar has involved himself in his son’s career like no other. Malik Monk is already in the G-League, De’Aaron Fox, John Collins and Dennis Smith Jr. have had spectacular moments for teams that are anything but spectacular. This rookie class is one for the ages and the season isn’t even half over.
MA: Philadelphia’s young talent
We have waited what feels like a decade for the 76ers to be a competitive team and it appears they are finally there. Once Markelle Fultz comes back from injury and the fleet of young talent the Sixers boast is available, this team should be even more fun to watch. Joel Embiid may be the most entertaining player in the league too.
TE: Rookie of the Year race
The ROY race – and the dominance of young players in general – has been compelling to me. Mitchell, Simmons, Tatum, Kuzma, Bell and many young players have been so good this season, I can’t remember a season where so many youngsters had a positive impact. The league is in a good place going forward thanks to all these guys.
ZG: The Chicago Bulls Experience
My personal favorite so far has been the Chicago Bulls. They had the Mirotic-Portis drama before the season even started and then got off to a horrendous start and were quickly (and justifiably so) viewed as the worst team in the NBA. Lauri Markannen and — surprisingly — Kris Dunn were their lone bright spots, but then things started to shift. Portis returned from his suspension and Mirotic returned from having his face bashed in and now the Bulls are actually good? But what makes it even better is their fans would prefer they tank the season away and grab a lottery pick in another loaded draft. So much confusion and hilarity!
DM: Boston’s unheralded success
I’m going to go with the Celtics’ success. They’re 32-10, Kyrie’s fun, Horford’s leading all big men in assists, is a DPOY candidate and is shooting 42.2 (!!!) percent from outside. Stevens is the Coach of the Year, Jaylen Brown has been awesome, Rozier has been fun off the bench, Aron Baynes has been great, Daniel Theis came out of nowhere and is a legit rotation big. The list goes on; this team has been so exciting.
DR: Can Oladipo and the Pacers sneak into the postseason?
Victor Oladipo and the success of the Indiana Pacers. Oladipo is making it increasingly difficult to not see him as an All-Star, as his play has elevated the Pacers position in the Eastern Conference. It’s too early to talk about who won the Oladipo-George trade, but it’s a clear win for Indianapolis.
Orazio Cauchi abstained from answering this question for reasons unknown to me.
HA: Can OKC retain both PG13 and Melo?
The Thunder were arguably the most compelling storyline of the preseason and that’s continued deep into the year. Oklahoma City took a chance by trading for both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to surround Russell Westbrook with stars and it’s had mixed results so far. On any given night, the Thunder can have an impressive win with equal contributions from their stars as well as suffocating defense from role players like Steven Adams and Andre Roberson. Other nights, they can lose to bottom feeders while George seems uninterested, Melo plays no defense and misses a bevy of midrange shots, and Russ goes 10 of 33 from the field but racks up a triple-double, exerting energy everywhere except on defense. OKC’s attempt to turn their season around, paired with the option of trading George if they believe he won’t stay past this summer, is going to continue to be a storyline for the next couple of months.
What are you most looking forward to seeing the rest of the season?
SP: OKC’s ascent (All stats as of Dec. 31).
Don’t look now, but the OKC Thunder seem to finally be gelling after a rocky start. The chemistry between Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George is improving nightly and it’s shown with their recent play. OKC has secured wins in six of their last eight and have performed markedly better on both ends of the floor. As their three stars figure out how to play with each other, this OKC team has no ceiling thanks to their sheer talent and could shake things out West as the season wears on.
DE: Can Harden hang onto MVP?
After the Harden injury, I am definitely looking ahead to how the MVP race will shape out. Harden still has a chance if he isn’t off the court for too long, but LeBron is turning back the clock with his play and really could win the MVP every season. Kevin Durant has continued to be the deadly scorer that he has always been while also surprisingly inserting himself into the race. Giannis Antetokounmpo has firmly entrenched himself into the tier of “superstars” this season, and if he can lead his Bucks to a higher seed in the improved Eastern Conference, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Greek Freak came away with it.
MA: Isaiah Thomas’ return
The Cavaliers have not been healthy all season, but they finally got their star point guard back from injury. The chip has always been on Isaiah Thomas’ shoulder, especially seeing how he took the trade from Boston from an emotional standpoint. Cleveland has shown bouts of dominance, but we felt there would be another gear once Thomas comes back. The next few months will hopefully display just that.
TE: Can the Bulls go from rags to (relative) riches? (All stats as of Jan. 1).
The Bulls! 9 wins in their last 12 games is insane for a team that started off so horribly. It reminds me so much of the Heat last season. I selfishly hope they can keep it up because it is so exciting to see a young team turn it around and do well. With Zach LaVine in the fold, hopefully the Bulls can keep up the fun.
ZG: The Isaiah Thomas Revenge Tour
I’m incredibly interested to see how Isaiah Thomas fits in Cleveland. He has a demeanor that insists he’s going to unleash bloody hell on anyone that dares step in his path and I am all here for it. The Cavaliers are the best team in the East without him and adding him into the mix and giving them a go-to option at point guard is only going to make them that much more dangerous.
DM: Can Joel Embiid carry his dominance into the playoffs? (All stats as of Dec. 29).
I’m really hoping the Sixers become a playoff team because I am so very ready for a playoff series with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in it. They’re 15-19 right now and are three games out of the eighth seed. I’d so much rather watch this young, talented team than watch Miami (the current team in the eighth seed).
DR: The OKC enigma
I would love to see the Oklahoma City Thunder continue to develop into their identity come playoff time. They’ve suffered some recent slippage in terms of their defense the last couple of weeks, which ranked in the top three for much of the year, but if they can regain their discipline on that end, they can make some real noise in the postseason.
OC: Isaiah Thomas is back!
I’m very curious to see how the Cavs will adapt to the return of Isaiah Thomas. His scoring abilities will definitely help the team in unloading some pressure from Lebron James and Kevin Love but his defensive issues may become a huge problem, especially in the playoffs.
HA: Can anyone in the East challenge Cleveland?
The NBA is at this weird stage where the Finals winner is almost a certainty and yet there are so many compelling storylines and loaded talent that it keeps us interested. I’m mostly looking forward to the Eastern Conference playoffs. Although the East is relatively weak, the lower seeded teams will still have young superstars (Giannis, Embiid, Porzingis) that can make things interesting. Seeing those players’ development at the biggest stage will be incredibly entertaining. Deeper into the postseason, I’m looking forward to seeing what kind of challenge the Raptors, Celtics or a dark horse team can provide for the Cavaliers.
This behemoth of a piece is part two of a two-part series regarding NBA talking points at the season’s midpoint. Special thanks to the nine writers who contributed.
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