It has been a while since my last post so I want to cover the political odds spectrum and get up to date. I will have a separate post later on the markets, MLB and the Upcoming NFL season.
Let’s start with political odds:
I have long been saying the best wager of 2020 is going to be fading the “dirty 30”. (Dems in House seats where Trump won the general in 2016). Some of those matchups are now out and here are my wagers.
GA-06 29/71 price now 26/74 -3
ME 02 51/49 price now 48/52 -3
IA-01 32/68 price now 26/74 -6
SC -01 54/46 price now 42/58 -12
NY-11 36/64 price now 32/68 -2
NJ -03 34/66 price now 26/74 -6
IA-02 29/61 price now 26/74 -3
MN-07 68/32 price now 65/35 -3
NY-22 47/53 price now 50/50 +3
OK-05 68/32 price now 43/57 -15
VA-07 43/57 price now 31/69 -12
So of the 30 only 11 matchups have been posted. I will be fading each one as they are posted. The line has moved against me in almost everyone 🙂 So if your planning on taking these you will be getting a better price. I am not going to cherry-pick but just fade all 30. As expected in most cases you are getting around 2 to 1. I expect that will continue at least until we get a bit closer to the election when these races should tighten up a lot. My expectation is to win at least 50% of these.
Now let’s look at the rest of the political odds:
Dem Nominee:
Biden
Biden is the Nominee
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris
Harris is the VP Nominee
Presidential winner:
Trump 43/57 +7Pts I took Trump at 45/55.
Biden 60/40 -1Pts
I think Trump getting 3 to 2 is an excellent wager. Starting to get as good as the dirty 30 wagers in terms of equity.
There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts. As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.
The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins 2. He is costing the establishment a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.
I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:) Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 62/42 -2 Pts
Again I believe the value is on the Republicans, It looks like a repeat of 2016 to me with the polling.
Control of the House:
86/16 Democrats: -1 Pts
I took 4 to 1 and now staring at 5 to 1. Lots of EV in getting 5 to 1 here. I may end up wagering more at this price. Another good wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
59/42 in favor of the Democrats -2 Pts
I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda. The better wager to me is getting 6 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House.
I think most likely Collins is going to lose Maine, but Alabama is a certain pickup. So we are back to +3 Republicans. I cannot imagine the Dems picking up 3 seats. The problem of course is that if they do and it is 50/50 you have Romney who will torpedo Trump every chance he gets. Then there is Murkowski. If Collins wins which I do not think she is even trying, then it is +4 Republicans which will give them some breathing room.
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: This wager is over and I lost it
A new line popped up that is interesting:
Will Kanye run in 2020 95/5
I do not think you can wager on this market the way the rules are. There is a lot of play in the interpretation of what constitutes running:) If the rules were hard and fast I would easily bet against this. Sure he has announced he is running, but with Kayne, that can change on a dime. There needs to be a date certain in the wager. That would make it easier to wager on.
That pretty much sums it up for this post. I will try to post some market comments and go through my short put sales tomorrow before the open. This has been a very profitable endeavor since I started it, as you will see in my next post.
Another wager I made that I felt had a lot of value is Where the Dems will sweep all 3 branches:
I received 43/57 that they would not, and the line is now 52/48 +9
Getting odds on this to me was a no brainer:)
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds
Skype:riccja
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The post Updated Political Odds and wagers, My thoughts this Sunday Morning on some positive EV wagers heading into November appeared first on Rickj's Handicapping Picks.
