By Brittany Gibson

With help from Ella Creamer, Rishika Dugyala, Jesse Naranjo and Teresa Wiltz

POLITICO illustration/Photo by AP

Hello, Recast fam! Another Trump lawyer who pushed to overturn the 2020 election pleads guilty, Hamas frees two more Israeli hostages and the GOP battle over the next House speaker wages on. But today, we’re taking a look at a key voting bloc. 

Latino Voters could determine the next president of the United States as Donald Trump seeks to make inroads with the community.

Increasingly, GOP operatives believe the same voting bloc will decide control of the House of Representatives, too.

An internal analysis from the National Republican Congressional Committee based on data from the Census Bureau shared with POLITICO shows something interesting: Nearly half of the most competitive districts have an above-average Latino voter population, which is about 14 percent. Many of these seats were decided by just a few thousand votes — including Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, currently held by GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert, which was decided by fewer than 600 votes in 2022.

The NRCC's belief that Hispanics will play a critical role in determining control of the House foreshadows a 2024 cycle in which the parties are even more aggressively targeting this demographic. And some Democrats have been sounding the alarm that Hispanics are moving away from the party.

Both parties recognize the growing demographic as political kingmakers.

“Latino voters in those races will determine who controls the House of Representatives,” says veteran Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, who ran Latino outreach on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign.

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The main House campaign committees for both parties, along with the two biggest super PACS (and their corresponding nonprofits), have already bought ads in some of these key districts, airing media in English and Spanish, according to AdImpact.

The Democratic-aligned House Majority Forward launched a new $20 million voter registration and mobilization program, running in multiple districts with significant percentages of Latino voters. This builds on the work from its PAC, which last midterm cycle launched a Latino-focused field program in two California districts and Virginia's 7th Congressional District, currently held by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has also hired a “Hispanic press secretary,” a specialized role on the communications team to handle messaging around Latino issues.

The DCCC and House Majority PAC have also invested in what Colin Rogero, a Latino media consultant who works with the DCCC, calls “cultural expertise.” That means hiring staffers who understand the myriad Latino cultures in this very diverse community, but also knowing how to use that knowledge to execute a nuanced campaign strategy, according to Rogero.

The Republican National Committee led the party in its Latino outreach in the midterms, mainly through cultural centers aimed at voters of color across the country. But there are currently just seven of these cultural centers still open, of which five are dedicated to Hispanic voters. The RNC didn't renew leases on most of the 38 centers it opened last cycle (for which it received glowing coverage) but said the objective is to have 40 centers running by the end of 2024.

During the midterms, Republicans made a big push to woo Latino voters. In addition to the Hispanic voter outreach centers, the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund spent $1.5 million on Spanish-language broadcast media and stepped up its candidate outreach.

“We’re identifying the best and brightest recruits who reflect their districts and America,” says CLF President Dan Conston. “And in many cases, that is more diverse candidates. We also come at each of these races with the goal of engaging every winnable voter.”

Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), a battleground-seat member, said voters are “willing to actually vote for you even if you're not in the same party as them because you have the same values and the same principles."

Garcia noted that the NRCC didn't recruit him with the idea that he would be an ideal candidate for a district that is about 39 percent Hispanic. In fact, when Garcia first ran for office, the NRCC donated to Steve Knight, his Republican opponent in the primary.

Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) speaks to reporters Oct. 11 on Capitol Hill. | Mariam Zuhaib/AP

“I'm very grateful for the NRCC and the RNC support,” Garcia says. “But they have a playbook and a recipe that they use. And I know how to win in my district so I keep using that one.”

The NRCC has not announced a staff position focused on Latino voter outreach for 2024, and it declined comment for this story.

Over the years, Republicans have been derided for their clumsy handling of the Latino electorate — spending less than Democrats on Spanish language ads in the midterms and at the last Republican presidential debate, only three candidates mentioned Hispanic voters at all. But the party has seen gains in their favor anyway. Republicans improved their standing with Latino voters by 14 points between 2018 and 2022, according to a post-election analysis from Pew Research. And their performance with Latinos was a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing midterm election last year.

"What Republicans have really learned over the last few years is you don’t have to have a highly specialized issue that only works for the Hispanic community,” says Amanda Iovino, who worked on Latino outreach for Glenn Youngkin’s successful gubernatorial campaign. Youngkin won a majority of the Latino vote in Virginia in 2021.

Members of Latinos for Youngkin participate in a parade during Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's inauguration ceremony, Jan. 15, 2022, in Richmond. | Julio Cortez/AP

Claudia Frometa, an executive board member of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials and a Republican mayor of a southern California city, says Latinos “don't really care" if there's an “R” or a “D” next to their name. Instead, she says, they’re much more receptive to messages about bread-and-butter issues like the high cost of living.

Still, Democrats such as Rep. Vicente Gonzalez of South Texas doubt Republicans can persuade voters with these arguments.

“We invite them to come and spend more resources in South Texas because it really benefits our party at the end of the day,” Gonzalez says. “If you watch their strategy of how they talk to Latinos on the border, I don't know where these people are from but certainly they're not from South Texas.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are leaning into their historical advantage with Latinos.

Mariafernanda “Marifer” Zacarias, national engagement director for the DCCC, who was hired away from the Biden White House, has become House Democrats’ go-to staffer for Latino voter outreach.

“Too often, folks think of engaging the Latino communities in a very siloed manner — that’s not what we’re doing at the DCCC,” Zacarias says.

When it comes to competitive swing districts, harnessing the power of this growing demographic has the potential to make up decisive margins in elections.

“Every single election is going to have a larger and larger number of Latinos who are eligible to be registered to vote,” says Arturo Vargas, CEO of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.

“To appreciate that is going to be really essential for either political party, or even for independents. To be able to put together a winning coalition of voters, they're going to need Latino voters as part of that coalition.”

As always, we’ll be watching to see how this all plays out in 2024.

All the best,
The Recast Team

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