By Madison Fernandez

Some battleground districts don’t yet have viable candidates, with primaries for competitive House races fast approaching.

Most targeted races already have at least one credible challenger in the race. But a handful don’t — and unless there is a self-funder waiting in the wings, the advantage for the incumbent is only going to grow as it gets closer and closer to 2024.

IA-03, held by Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, is a target district for Democrats. | AP

In a bid to retake the House, every seat that Democrats can pick up helps them chip away at Republicans’ narrow majority. But there are a handful of gaps in the Democrats’ map.

That includes IA-03, which Republican Rep. Zach Nunn narrowly flipped last year from then-Rep. Cindy Axne — then the sole Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation. The district voted for former President Donald Trump by less than one point in 2020. But there’s no strong Democratic candidate there yet: One Democrat filed earlier this year, but has not reported any fundraising. Late last week, Melissa Vine, a motivational speaker and executive director of a nonprofit, also filed to run.

Democrats face an uphill climb in Florida, where they have targeted FL-13 and FL-27, held by Republican Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Maria Elvira Salazar. Both of these districts became redder after redistricting, although Trump would have won them in 2020 by 6 points and less than one point, respectively. No prominent Democrats have yet announced a campaign against Salazar. Two little-known candidates have filed against Luna, one of which only did so earlier this month.

The DCCC has also targeted Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in WI-01, but all three Democrats who have filed have dismal fundraising hauls. Two have not raised any money yet, and the other has only brought in $5,000 since joining the race in August. Trump would have won that district by around 2 points in 2020.

Republicans have holes in their targeted districts, too. The NRCC is looking to flip OR-04 from Democratic Rep. Val Hoyle, who won last year by around 7 points. Three Republicans have filed, but none of them reported fundraising. And no one major has announced a challenge to Democratic Rep. Seth Magaziner in RI-02, another Democrat on Republicans’ target list.

Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright only won his Pennsylvania district by around 2 points in 2022 — a district that Trump would have won by around 3. But the field of Republicans seeking to claim the district has yet to materialize. Businessperson Rob Bresnahan is the sole notable candidate. He filed to run earlier this month, but has yet to formally launch a campaign. Still, he’s capable of self-funding, meaning a late launch might have less of a detrimental impact.

Happy Monday. Reach me at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2023 election: 15

Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 84

Days until the Republican National Convention: 266

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 301

Days until the 2024 election: 379

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IT’S A NO FROM ME — Maryland Democrat Will Jawando dropped his bid for Senate. Jawando, a Montgomery County councilmember, was one of the first candidates to jump into the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin. Jawando’s fundraising has lagged behind Democratic opponents Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who have brought in $10 million and $3 million this cycle, respectively.

BATTLEGROUND MAP — Democratic Reps. Dina Titus (Nev.) and Vicente Gonzalez (Texas) are the DCCC’s newest addition to its Frontline program, which supports vulnerable incumbents. There are 31 other incumbents on the list.

SPEAKER SHENANIGANS — Three more vulnerable Republicans flipped on Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan during the third round of votes for speaker on Friday: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Tom Kean Jr. (N.J.) and Marc Molinaro (N.Y.). That brought the number of DCCC-targeted Jordan detractors to 11. It didn’t matter much, though — after that third vote, House Republicans ditched Jordan as their speaker pick, opening the floodgates of Republicans vying for the gavel.

CAMPAIGN PAINS — Republican presidential candidate Perry Johnson, a Michigan businessperson who failed to gain traction in the polls and largely self-funded his bid, suspended his campaign. He blamed “corruption among leaders at the RNC” after not making the stage during the first two debates. Johnson is keeping a small political team on staff “in the event the dynamics of the race change,” he said on Friday.

Another struggling candidate to keep an eye on: Former Vice President Mike Pence. “Nearly six months into his presidential campaign, and fewer than 90 days until the Iowa caucuses, Pence is not seeing massive crowds,” writes POLITICO’s Adam Wren. “It’s difficult to find a political prognosticator who is not on his payroll who gives Pence any plausible shot at winning the nomination, a reality he acknowledged on the trail earlier this month.”

And it’s not just Pence. Some fans of South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott “are beginning to acknowledge Scott’s presidential campaign has been a disappointment, and that his path forward appears dim,” POLITICO’s Natalie Allison and Burgess Everett write. “That lack of oxygen in the primary has been a major problem for all of Trump’s rivals. But Scott’s campaign appeared to do less than others to force him into the conversation.”

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Trump, unsurprisingly, is not taking part in the third GOP presidential primary debate on Nov. 8. Instead, he’s holding a rally in Hialeah, Fla., a predominantly Hispanic city. So far, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, businessperson Vivek Ramaswamy and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley have qualified for the debate.

COMMUNITY OUTREACH — Biden’s campaign is looking to expand its $25 million advertising campaign in an attempt to buoy his polling in battleground states, The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer and Tyler Pager report. “Biden signed off on the initial fall television and digital campaign despite concerns from some advisers who feel the money could be better allocated for other priorities like building out staff sooner or building cash reserves. Other Democrats continue to question whether the upbeat sales pitch in some Biden ads fails to reflect the economic realities of voters.”

In addition to the battleground states, the Biden campaign faces challenges with communities of color. “Biden can’t safely assume he’ll be able to reassemble the coalition that he rode to victory three years ago,” POLITICO’s Steve Shepard writes of Black voter support, which has waned for Democrats across the country. The most recent sign was last week’s Louisiana gubernatorial race, where there’s evidence Black voters didn’t turn out — which in part led to Republicans flipping the seat. The outcomes of the Mississippi gubernatorial race and Virginia state legislative elections will also give a sense of Black voters’ attitudes toward Democrats.

Biden is also “facing anger from many Arab Americans, Muslims and their progressive allies over what they see as an uneven response and failure to push for deescalation” in the aftermath of Hamas attacking Israel earlier this month, POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein reports. “They have amplified their warnings, telling Biden’s team that frustrations among Arab Americans and Muslims could hurt him in the presidential race next year. While those voters make up a small portion of the electorate, they can be a key bloc in tightly contested battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.”

PRESIDENTIAL — SFA Fund, the super PAC backing Haley, is running a spot in Iowa and New Hampshire attacking DeSantis. The spot continues the barbs Haley and DeSantis have been trading over the Israel-Hamas war, and follows an ad last week from pro-DeSantis group Never Back Down attacking Haley on the issue. The narrator in the SFA Fund spot accuses DeSantis of “throwing mud” at Haley because he’s “losing.”

… Never Back Down is running another spot in Iowa hitting Haley over China.

… Tell It Like It Is, the PAC supporting Christie, is touting the former governor’s foreign policy experience in an ad running in New Hampshire. It shows a clip of Trump in a courtroom as the narrator says that the next president needs to not be “distracted by personal issues.”

KY GOV — Club for Growth, which has endorsed Republican Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron’s gubernatorial bid, is continuing to tie Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear to Biden — and is leaning into Cameron’s endorsement from Trump. “If you stand with Trump, vote Cameron for governor,” the narrator says. Meanwhile, Defending Bluegrass Values, the Democratic Governors Association’s affiliate group in Kentucky, is pressing on with its attacks connecting Cameron to former Republican Gov. Matt Bevin.

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PARTY CHECK-IN — Here’s how the party committees did last month, from Sept. 1-30, based on reports that were due to the FEC on Friday.

— The NRCC raised $9.3 million and finished the month with $36.1 million in the bank. It had no debts. The committee raised $18.5 million in total for Q3.

— The DCCC brought in $11.1 million in September and had $44.7 million on hand. It had no debts. The Q3 fundraising total was $26.1 million.

— The NRSC posted a $8.1 million haul. It had $8.2 million on hand and $500,000 in debts. The committee raised $18.6 million in Q3.

— The DSCC raised $6.2 million, had $14.1 million in its coffers and it had no debts. It raised $16.3 million in the third quarter.

— The RNC had $6.3 million in receipts last month. There was $9.3 million on hand, and it had no debts. The committee raised $22.5 million in Q3.

— The DNC raised $13.3 million in September and had $20.5 million on hand. It had $247,000 in debt. In Q3, the DNC’s fundraising total was $29.9 million.

KY GOV — Bluegrass Freedom Action, the super PAC boosting Cameron’s gubernatorial bid, released an internal poll conducted by Coefficient showing Beshear with 47 percent of support and Cameron with 45 percent. The memo notes: “Beshear's strong ties to Biden negatively resonate with undecided voters, swinging them in Cameron's direction.” Republicans have been looking to tie the governor to Biden in the final stretch of the campaign (1,845 likely general election voters, Oct. 18-19, MoE +/- 3.2 percentage points).

— Democratic MN-03 candidate Ron Harris, who mounted a primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips, announced his campaign team: George Hornedo is senior strategist; Change Research is conducting polling; Blue State is doing digital fundraising; Jack Lofgren is running fundraising; Marv McMoore Jr. is in charge of digital advertising; and Opalite Media is doing multimedia production.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I literally threw my entire life into the toilet and flushed it to get elected.” — Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) to The New York Times.

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