By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

THE LATEST IN ISRAEL — “Israel strikes Gaza, Syria and West Bank as war against Hamas threatens to ignite other fronts,” by AP’s Najib Jobain, Samy Magdy and Ravi Nessman

Donald Trump's firm grip on the 2024 GOP primary has the other candidates jockeying for the chance to consolidate the field. | Getty Images

SHADES OF THE 2016 PRIMARY — We are 85 days away from the Iowa caucuses, and unfortunately for nearly every single Republican candidate not named DONALD TRUMP, the fundamentals of the race haven’t really budged.

The GOP base is still largely with the former president. His legal troubles aren’t sending party leaders — or, for that matter, primary voters — running away from him. And his opponents’ campaigns are doing little to inspire confidence that they’ll be able to eke out a win.

Sen. TIM SCOTT’s campaign started with a whole lot of promise. For years, the South Carolinian’s compelling background — raised by a single, working mother, rising up to become the lone Black Republican in the Senate — and hopeful tone made him a uniquely promising politician in the Trump-era GOP: a happy warrior amongst some very angry ones.

But Scott’s presidential campaign continues to struggle, notching somewhere “below 2 percent in national polls,” underperforming at the two debates so far and forcing a shift in strategies in a hope to find a foothold, as our Natalie Allison and Burgess Everett write this morning.

Even big fans of Scott are publicly acknowledging his bid is in big trouble. That’s how you know the agita is real.

• MARK SANFORD, former South Carolina governor: “In talking to people here at home, what they have told me is that it’s unfortunate that the Tim that they know in South Carolina is not the Tim that people may be perceiving in Iowa and New Hampshire and other states.”
  
• Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas): “I’m disappointed, because he’s such a terrific guy and has got a great message. … At some point, there’s going to have to be consolidation when the outcome is inevitable.”

But that consolidation seems far from likely at this point.

Campaigning in Iowa over the weekend, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS knocked Trump from the right on both the border and guns.

• On the border: “Trump said you can’t just force Mexico to pay [for the wall because] there was no legal mechanism,” DeSantis said, per the Dubuque Telegraph Herald’s Michelle London. “What we’ll do is impose fees on all the remittances that people that work here send back to Mexico and Central America and South America.”

• On guns: He called for a repeal of “restrictions on bump stocks instituted during the Trump administration and on pistol braces by the Biden administration,” per the Des Moines Register’s Phillip Sitter.

But in recent days, much of DeSantis world’s ire has been aimed at former UN Ambassador NIKKI HALEY.

On Friday, Never Back Down, the DeSantis super PAC, released an ad accusing Haley of flip-flopping on Gazan refugees. The spot “features Haley in 2017 defending sending assistance to people in the West Bank and Gaza alongside a 2023 clip of her saying of the prospect of the United States accepting Gazan refugees, ‘That is not the role of [the] U.S. to do that. I've always said that, and I continue to say that,’” per ABC.

Yesterday, Haley responded and didn’t mince words. “You know, [the] first thing I’ll say is, God bless Ron DeSantis, because he continues to try and bring up this refugee situation. He has said that I want to take Gazan refugees. I have never said that. And he’s got an ad on TV, and I will tell you, from CNN to Newsmax, they have all said that his ad is a lie.”

When asked about the ad, DeSantis doubled down, both in remarks in Iowa and then to ABC in South Carolina, and criticized Haley for expressing “a lot of support for [the United Nations Relief and Works Agency] and stuff in the past.”

The whole spectacle feels a lot like 2016, as the non-Trump candidates continue to fight with each other rather than the clear frontrunner, each candidate thinking that they should be the one to take on Trump — that if they could just get into a one-on-one race, they could win.

Meanwhile, the field isn’t consolidating — a reality that the editorial board at the Post and Courier, South Carolina’s biggest newspaper, addressed in a scorching editorial encouraging every GOP candidate except Nikki Haley to leave the race so she can take Trump on one-on-one, billing her as “the one Republican who is clearly ascending — in the polls, in fundraising, in her willingness to challenge the former president.”

They tout her foreign policy expertise, which has a renewed salience after Hamas’ attacks on Israel. And while true that it could be a boon, unless the field thins out, it’s a moot point.

It’s Trump’s primary to lose, and the multicandidate field less than three months out — with many of the campaigns so weak that they wouldn’t qualify for life support — virtually ensures that he’ll win.

Related reads:

• “How Ron DeSantis Lost the Internet,” by NYT’s Ken Bensinger and Nicholas Nehamas: “The G.O.P. contender’s campaign tried to take on Donald Trump’s online army. Now it just wants to end the meme wars.”
  
• “He Was Once a Favorite of the Right. Now, Mike Pence Can’t Get a Crowd of 15 to a Pizza Ranch,” by Adam Wren in Atlantic, Iowa: “The former vice president has gone all out to win Iowa. But is anyone listening?”

WHAT COULD TRIP UP TRUMP — “Back-to-back plea deals pose grave legal threat to Donald Trump,” by CNN’s Zachary Cohen and Marshall Cohen: “The pleas [by SIDNEY POWELL and KENNETH CHESEBRO] are a stark display of the reality that the Georgia case against Trump and his co-defendants is getting stronger. … Chesebro directly implicated Trump in a criminal conspiracy, and his plea establishes for the first time that the fake electors plot was illegal. Notably, Chesebro has now admitted that ‘the purpose’ of the fake electors conspiracy was to ‘disrupt and delay the joint session of Congress on January 6, 2021,’ which is a key element of the federal charges Trump is facing.”

A message from Business Roundtable:

America’s status as the global leader in innovation is at risk. Key tax incentives for investment in the U.S. are being phased out while other countries double down on domestic investment. Unless Congress fully reverses these tax increases on U.S. job creators, American businesses and workers will be at a competitive disadvantage. Congress, it’s time to support American jobs and innovation. Restore essential business tax incentives. Learn more.

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN on whether all unaccounted for Americans are being held hostage by Hamas, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “We don’t know. As you said, we have got 10 unaccounted for Americans. We believe that some significant number are hostages.”

On concerns of Iranian escalation: “We expect that there’s a likelihood of escalation. Escalation by Iranian proxies directed against our forces, directed against our personnel. We are taking steps to make sure that we can effectively defend our people and respond decisively if we need to.”

On whether the U.S. is opposed to a preemptive strike by Israel: “No one wants a second or third front, including when it comes to Lebanon, northern Israel, southern Lebanon. That’s not in anyone’s interest. And that’s exactly why we’ve sent a very strong message to try to deter Hezbollah, deter Iran more directly from opening up a second front.”

— Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL on President JOE BIDEN’s $100 billion supplemental funding request, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I think neither side has done a very good job of dealing with the deficit. However, you have to respond to conditions that actually exist that are a threat to the United States. The Iranians are a threat to us as well. And so this is an emergency. It’s an emergency that we step up and deal with this axis of evil — China, Russia, Iran — because it’s an immediate threat to the United States.”

On Republicans not supporting Ukraine funding: “There are some differences of opinion among Republican senators about this. I don’t view this about whether we give Biden credit or not. This is a question of whether it’s a serious threat to the United States. If the Russians aren’t defeated, they will go into a NATO country next.”

— Rep. KEVIN McCARTHY (R-Calif.) on the speakership saga, on “Meet the Press”: “This is embarrassing for the Republican Party. It’s embarrassing for the nation and we need to look at one another and solve the problem.”

Asked if he would rule out running for speaker again: “I don’t need the title. I’m going to help in any way I can.”

On linking Ukraine funding with Israel aid: “I would not want to delay any aid for Israel. I would have already sent aid to Israel. When I – if I was still speaker today, I would have done a number of things. We wouldn’t even be talking about it today.”

On why he hasn’t endorsed Trump for reelection yet: “The campaign is still going. There’s a very good chance I would endorse him. … I’ve got a southern border wide open. I have war in the Middle East. I got things I’m focused on right now. I believe President Trump will be our nominee and I believe President Trump will get reelected.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

• “We Must Not Kill Gazan Children to Try to Protect Israel’s Children,” by Nicholas Kristof for NYT

• “Why We Should Fear China More Than Middle Eastern War,” by Ross Douthat for NYT

• “Gaza: The Cost of Escalation,” by Ben Rhodes for NY Review of Books

• “Where Is the Republican Lina Khan?” by Matt Stoller for Compact

• “The World Can No Longer Sideline the Israeli-Palestinian Issue. But the U.S. Doesn’t Have to Be the Only Broker,” by Elise Labott for Politico Magazine

• “How Social Media Abdicated Responsibility for the News,” by Kyle Chyka for The New Yorker

• “Can an Unpopular Populist Still Damage Democracy?” by Thomas Edsall for NYT

• “The True Story Behind ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Is Being Erased From Oklahoma Classrooms,” by Jim Gray and David Grann for NYT

• “Understanding democratic decline in the United States,” by Vanessa Williamson for Brookings

• “No, Disruption Isn’t Coming for Higher Ed,” by Mark Garrett Cooper for the Chronicle of Higher Education
  
• “The Shattered Myth of Benjamin Netanyahu,” by Yair Rosenberg for The Atlantic

A message from Business Roundtable:

At the White House

Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing listed on their public schedules.

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

The Biden reelection campaign is considering pushing further into early advertising as it tries to turn around some lagging poll numbers. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

1. WORRIES IN BIDEN WORLD: With Biden increasingly unsettled with his numbers in the early battleground states, his reelection campaign is considering “expanding its unconventional $25 million early advertising effort this year,” WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Tyler Pager report. The early investment in advertising was a somewhat unusual approach and came despite “concerns from some advisers who feel the money could be better allocated for other priorities like building out staff sooner or building cash reserves.”

“At the heart of the Democratic conflict over Biden’s strategy is a debate over how much the traditional blueprint for presidential campaigns needs to change and the best way for Biden to sell his accomplishments in office without alienating voters who remain dissatisfied with the economy, unaware of his accomplishments and wary of his running for reelection.”

2. AIRBALL JORDAN: The ongoing speaker saga that is playing out among House Republicans opened with a bruising week for Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), who suffered a “career-defining flameout that burned so many bridges Jordan might never again have a chance to be speaker,” WaPo’s Paul Kane writes. “Rather than unifying the group and claiming the most important job in Congress, Jordan further repelled older colleagues who never trusted his recent makeover. He also infuriated newer colleagues who saw the bullying campaign on his behalf as unseemly and dangerous.”

Related read: “Meet the Republicans Running for Speaker,” by NYT’s Catie Edmondson and Luke Broadwater

3. HOW IT’S PLAYING: “Americans Back Israel but Are Wary of Getting Pulled Into Conflict, WSJ-Ipsos Poll Finds,” by WSJ’s Aaron Zitner and Annie Linskey: “Some 42% in the survey said the U.S. should side with Israel, a record high dating to 2002, while 3% said the U.S. should take the Palestinians’ side. The share with favorable views of both the Israeli people and their government is higher in the new survey than in similar polls in recent years, though young people are much less supportive of the longtime U.S. ally than are older Americans. At the same time, the survey found Americans reluctant to become engaged in the region. Some 52% said the U.S. shouldn’t back either Israel or the Palestinians in their long-running conflict.”

4. UNDER THE INFLUENCE: “An unsanctioned coterie of pro-Israel quasi-lobbyists has descended on D.C.,” by Hailey Fuchs and Caitlin Oprysko: “Their overarching goal is to shape how elected officials in the U.S. react to the crisis. But their work also underscores how much of the political fight around the nascent war is being done on the fly; and how much is being waged in unconventional theaters: college campuses, corporate boardrooms, K Street offices and stuffy Capitol Hill restaurants.”

A message from Business Roundtable:

5. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: As Chicago begins preparations for the Democratic National Convention next year, officials are tinkering with a new problem: an overload of migrants that are coming to the city. “The city has seen fluctuating numbers of busloads of migrants, adding to the difficulty of planning for arrivals. Last week, 28 busloads landed in Chicago, but as many as 60 have arrived in one week. The mayor’s office told POLITICO it’s seen a noticeable increase of migrants since Chicago was announced as the host city for the Democratic National Convention. Now, however, the topic is coming up in meetings about convention planning,” Shia Kapos reports from Chicago.

Related read: “Illegal Immigration Is a Bigger Problem Than Ever. These Five Charts Explain Why,” by WSJ’s Andrew Mollica, Alicia Caldwell, Michelle Hackman and Santiago Pérez

6. TESTER PILOT: “Montana Has Had It With Rich Outsiders. Will That Help Jon Tester Win Re-Election?” by WSJ’s Eliza Collins and Paul Overberg in Kalispell, Mont.: “GOP campaign officials see Montana as one of their most promising potential pickups, along with West Virginia and Ohio, all states Trump won in 2020. In dozens of interviews across the state, voters said they are more worried about local issues — land development, agriculture, energy and Native American priorities — than the national political concerns that are expected to shape other competitive Senate contests.”

7. THE SANTOS CLAUSE: “George Santos Swore He’d Never Talk to Me. Then the Phone Rang,” by NYT’s Grace Ashford: “I asked him if he would ever consider resigning, just to make the circuslike attention stop. He dismissed the idea out of hand. Not only did he need to support his family, he said, but he loved being a congressman. He loved working with people. And of all of the things he has said, this is the one that is most believable.”

8. CULTURE WAR COMES FOR CYBER WAR: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency was set up by former President DONALD TRUMP to protect elections and U.S. infrastructure from cyberattacks from foreign hackers. But the agency is under attack at home from those on the right, who insist that it “singles out conservative voices and infringes upon free speech rights — an allegation the agency vehemently denies and the Biden administration is contesting in court,” John Sakellariadis writes. “The accusations started in the wake of the 2020 election and are ramping up ahead of 2024, with lawmakers now calling for crippling cuts at the agency.”

9. THE OPIOID CRISIS: “The opioid crisis has gotten much, much worse despite Congress’ efforts to stop it,” by Carmen Paun: “In 2018, Republicans, Democrats and then-President Donald Trump united around legislation that threw $20 billion into treatment, prevention and recovery. But five years later, the SUPPORT Act has lapsed and the number of Americans dying from overdoses has grown more than 60 percent, driven by illicit fentanyl. The battle has turned into a slog.”

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Meridian House for the 55th annual Meridian Ball on Friday night: Spanish Ambassador Santiago Cabanas, Reps. Dina Titus (D-Nev.), Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), Ami Bera (D-Calif.), Don Beyer (D-Va.), Neal Dunn (R-Fla.), John Garamendi (D-Calif.), Josh Harder (D-Calif.), Michael McCaul (R-Texas), Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), Stuart Holliday, Jim Acosta, Paul Ryan, Symone Sanders-Townsend, Kellyanne Conway, Mike Donilon, Bruce Reed, Steve Ricchetti, Jon Finer, Liz Allen, John McCarthy, Lee Satterfield and Patrick Steel, Kylie Atwood, Jacqueline Alemany, Margaret Brennan, Nichole Francis Reynolds, Geoff Browning, Heather Wingate, Art Collins, Steve Hilton, DeDe Lea, Lance Mangum, Sudafi Henry and Becca Bycott.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Molly Nagle, a producer and reporter with ABC’s White House team, and Greg Hughes, a producer with CNN’s “State of the Union,” got married on Saturday at Bluemont Vineyard in Bluemont, Va. The bride and groom exchanged their own vows in front of family and friends overlooking the Blue Ridge Mountains. The wedding was officiated by friends Sarah Kolinovsky and Max Mancher. Later, guests were treated to beautiful toasts, dancing and plenty of “Parks and Rec” references. SPOTTED: Jake Tapper, Dana Bash, Cecilia Vega, Martha Raddatz and Tom Gjelten, Mary Bruce and Phil Levis, Rachel Streitfeld and Tim Runfola, Abigail Crutchfield and Alex Arzoumanov, Jordyn Phelps and Caleb Skeeth, Polson Kanneth and Sandy Kotha, Ryan Struyk, Veronica Stracqualursi, Jenny Hansler, Ben Geldon, John Robinson, Karen Travers, Mary Alice Parks, Pat O’Gara, Ben Gittleson and Rachel Gevirtz and Misha Wee.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) … Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson … Hilary Rosen … Stephanie Cutter of Precision Strategies … former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour … NYT’s David Halbfinger … Kurt Bardella … Guy Harrison of OnMessage Inc. … Brett O’Donnell … Chris Licht … Jerry Zremski … FiscalNote’s Mallory Howe Molina … Atlantic Council’s Trey Herr … Helen Milby … Patrick Dolan of BGR Group … Jeff Grappone of Rokk Solutions … WSJ’s Warren Strobel … Casey Phillips … Sara Swezy of Sena Kozar Strategies … Michael Beckel … former Reps. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.) and Ed Feighan (D-Ohio) … Brian Dodge … Samantha Friedman Kupferman ... Tom Basile … Rachel Petri … Jennie Bragg of Malaria No More … Alice Henriques … Simone Campbell … Michael Ceraso of Winning Margins and Community Groundwork … Adam Parkhomenko … Amalia Corby of the American Society for Microbiology … Altana Technologies’ Jonathan Prince

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine.

A message from Business Roundtable:

From lifesaving medical devices to essential household goods, U.S. companies and the hardworking Americans they employ have developed many of the world’s most cutting-edge products. These technological advancements were made possible by a competitive, pro-growth tax system that spurred robust investment at home.

But now, America’s status as the global leader in innovation is at risk. Key tax incentives for investment in the U.S. are being phased out while other countries double down on domestic investment. Unless Congress fully reverses these tax increases on U.S. job creators, American businesses and workers will be at a competitive disadvantage.

Congress, don’t let American innovation fall behind. It’s time to restore vital business tax incentives. Learn more.

Follow us on Twitter