By Eli Okun and Rachael Bade

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST — In the second shocking about-face of the week, KENNETH CHESEBRO is pleading guilty in federal court in Fulton County, Ga., Lawfare’s Anna Bower scooped. His decision came in the midst of the first day of jury selection for his 2020 election subversion trial. Chesebro will reportedly plead guilty to conspiracy to file false documents and, in return, will have to pay restitution, do community service, write an apology letter and go on probation (prosecutors recommend five years).

It’s another major flip from a prominent DONALD TRUMP ally who helped create the plan for fake electors to try to undo the 2020 result. Notably, Chesebro — like SIDNEY POWELL before him — also agreed to testify at future trials in the sprawling case, in a win for DA FANI WILLIS.

There’s reason to believe Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) will keep losing support if he presses ahead. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THIRD TIME’S NO CHARM — All signs pointed to Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) gathering no steam ahead of a third attempt at the speakership this morning. But he forged ahead anyway — and his support indeed fell even further.

Reps. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.), TOM KEAN JR. (R-N.J.) and MARC MOLINARO (R-N.Y.), all of whom represent swing districts, flipped against Jordan on this vote, bringing the number of opponents to 25. The Ohioan gained no new supporters. And with two GOP absences — including Rep. DERRICK VAN ORDEN (D-Wis.), who’s in Israel for a “fact-finding mission” — Jordan dropped from 199 votes in his favor to 194.

With no clear path forward for the party or the chamber, Republicans are heading into yet another conference meeting at 1 p.m.

There’s reason to believe Jordan will keep losing support if he presses ahead. Reps. TROY NEHLS (R-Texas), leader of the Trump-for-speaker movement, and VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.), leader of the House’s Keep ’Em Guessing Caucus, told reporters today that they likely wouldn’t be able to keep voting for Jordan past today.

It wasn’t for lack of trying: Recently deposed speaker KEVIN McCARTHY delivered the nominating speech for Jordan in a show of support, making the case publicly that Jordan’s lack of bills passed doesn’t mean he’s been an ineffective legislator. Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) is still holding out hope for a strong speech from House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE.

In the absence of one neat trick to reverse the trend, the outside and inside pressure on Republicans to back Jordan has continued. The Gun Owners of America said they would score any vote against him for speaker as an anti-gun rights vote, per WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor. Strikingly, the eight members who ousted McCarthy offered themselves up in a new letter for punishment — even expulsion from the conference — if that would get the holdouts on board with Jordan. (Confusingly, the letter includes Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), who opposes Jordan.)

It all adds up to a catch-22 for the conference, as CBS’ Robert Costa writes: “Jordan, under outside pressure from Trump allied media types and activists, won’t quit the race. But his critics inside the House will never let him win the gavel.”

Meanwhile, acting Speaker Pro Tempore PATRICK McHENRY offered some clarity on reporting that he would threaten to resign if Republicans temporarily empowered him. In fact, McHenry said, he was open to taking on a greater role if it were given to him properly: “Having some overruling of the chair in order to give me powers I would not support. If there’s a formalized vote for a speaker pro tem, it can be done. It’s proved to be constitutional,” he told reporters.

“There’s a way through this, and a way that the institution can function, but you have to have a formal vote to do anything else. And any other matter here, there is no, like, mysterious way, a triple bank shot, of doing this. There’s a constitutional way and a way that conforms with the rules, and everything else is a deeply flawed and ill-conceived workaround.”

The stakes of a headless House are getting clearer, and more significant for the world than ever. Today, the White House unveiled its $105 billion supplemental funding request to Congress, which seeks funds for Ukraine, Israel, the border, international humanitarian aid and countering China in the Indo-Pacific. But the House will have trouble making any progress on that until it has a speaker. Details from the AP

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TRUMP CARDS

YOWZA — In Trump’s civil business fraud trial in New York, Judge ARTHUR ENGORON openly asked today why he shouldn’t put the former president behind bars for defying the judge’s order to take down a post about his law clerk, the N.Y. Daily News’ Molly Crane-Newman reports. Trump’s apparent weekslong violation of Engoron’s partial gag order is coming to a head: Though he deleted the post criticizing the law clerk from Truth Social, it remained on Trump’s website. But Trump attorney CHRIS KISE told Engoron that was just an oversight.

BETTER THAN REVENGE — In her new book, MELISSA DeROSA claims that the Trump administration trashed plans for New York infrastructure projects after then-Gov. ANDREW CUOMO publicly criticized Trump, WSJ’s Jimmy Vielkind scooped. DeRosa says Cuomo struck an agreement to get infrastructure help if he stopped criticizing Trump over the pandemic — and then the morning after Cuomo did blast the administration at the Democratic National Convention, JARED KUSHNER called and said the deal was off.

2024 WATCH

RIGHT ON THE EDGE — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ affiliated Never Back Down super PAC has been paying for his flights on private planes, significantly easing a major financial burden in a move that “could test the limits of campaign finance laws,” NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien, Nicholas Nehamas, Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman report. Never Back Down, which has been running more and more of his operation, says they pay for the flights only when DeSantis attends events they host. It’s not clear whether that is kosher or amounts to excessive coordination between the campaign and super PAC.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS — Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) is tentatively planning a presidential campaign kickoff for Oct. 27 in Concord, N.H., per WSJ’s Ken Thomas, though he reports that Phillips has not yet definitively committed.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

LATEST ON THE MIDDLE EAST WAR — How long will the conflict in Israel and Gaza last? The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser reports a “grim prognosis” despite U.S. efforts at diplomacy: Top Israeli officials told the Americans to expect the war to last as long as 10 years.

The U.S. political fallout: Death threats have surged against Muslim members of Congress, and Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) worries that her life may be at risk, NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald scooped. “Omar’s office said the threats in the past 10 days have been worse than ever” — and NBC has shocking quotes from several voicemails left for her. “I’m from a militant group,” one says. “I can’t wait till our group sees you one day and I can rip your f------ rag off your head … I hope the Israelis kill every f------ one of you.”

— “On Israel, Progressive Jews Feel Abandoned by Their Left-Wing Allies,” by NYT’s Jennifer Medina and Lisa Lerer: “This wartime shift represents a fundamental break within a liberal coalition that has long powered the Democratic Party. … [There’s] a politically engaged swath of American Jewry who are reaching a breaking point.”

Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER may be one of them: He told Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio in an emotional interview, “The threat of Hamas has to be eliminated. This idea of a ceasefire — and let Hamas continue to exist so they can do it again? Nuh-uh.”

IMMIGRATION FILES — It’s not just the U.S. border: Mexico is struggling itself with a deluge of migrants, like multiple countries throughout Central America, WaPo’s Mary Beth Sheridan reports from San Luis Potosí. That “surge has exposed the limits of relying on Mexico as a buffer zone for the United States.”

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MORE POLITICS

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — Montgomery County, Md., Councilmember WILL JAWANDO today dropped out of the Maryland Democratic Senate primary, Brakkton Booker reports. That basically turns it into a two-person race between Prince George’s County Executive ANGELA ALSOBROOKS and Rep. DAVID TRONE. Jawando made no endorsement.

NEW ON THE SCENE — Dallas Mayor ERIC JOHNSON, who recently switched from Democratic to Republican, is going all in on his new party: Today, he launched the Republican Mayors Association to push for more GOP leaders of America’s biggest cities. Johnson aims to “create a network of like-minded mayors who can learn from each other, share best practices, and lead our cities to a brighter future.”

POLICY CORNER

WHAT JOE MANCHIN IS WATCHING — The Treasury Department today will put out the official metric of the federal budget deficit, and in a surprise, it’s expected to have ballooned to roughly $2 trillion, NYT’s Jim Tankersley reports. Experts thought that the relative strength of the economy and the Supreme Court’s decision to ax President JOE BIDEN’s student loan forgiveness plan would both ameliorate the deficit. Instead it looks set to blow past the administration’s original prediction of $1.7 trillion for the fiscal year. The biggest culprit is falling tax revenue, which has somewhat puzzled budget watchers.

THE TAXMAN COMETH — “IRS Heightens Scrutiny of Foreign, Large Corporate Businesses,” by Bloomberg Tax’s Erin Slowey

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PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies hosted a VIP reception Wednesday night to open its 2023 Future of Black Communities Summit, where the Fed’s Lisa Cook received the Louis E. Martin Great American Award and was the VIP guest speaker. SPOTTED: Jessica Fulton, Steve Benjamin, Kristin Johnson, William Reese, Rick Wade, Sesha Joi Moon, Paul Thornell, Ashley Lewis, Tony Williams and Brian Dixon.

— The Canadian Embassy hosted a fall BBQ on its rooftop Wednesday night in recognition of the launch of the new American Canadian Economy and Security Caucus, better known as ACES. The embassy recognized 38 members with glass maple leaf awards for congressional districts that export a lot to Canada. Guests enjoyed poutine, bison burgers and traditional Montreal “steamies.” Drinks included a signature “Saskatoon Sangria” and Quebec beer Fin du Monde. SPOTTED: co-chairs of the ACES Caucus Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) and Angus King (I-Maine) and Reps. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) and Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas); Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), and Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.), Jerry Carl (R-Ala.), Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Danny Davis (D-Ill.), plus more than a dozen others.

— Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) hosted a goodbye party Wednesday night at the Kennedy Center for his chief of staff Jon Stahler, who will be chief of staff for the U.S. Mission to the U.N. for Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield. SPOTTED: Reema Dodin, Jon Kott, Todd Webster, Chris Slevin, Louisa Terrell, Tricia Russell, Brian Winseck, Liz Johnson, John McCarthy, Cassie Fields, Erica Songer and Al Fitzpayne.

— The National Museum of Women in the Arts celebrated its reopening Wednesday night with a gala that featured remarks in the newly refurbished and renamed Mars Performance Hall by first lady Jill Biden and live performance by soprano Ana Maria Martinez. SPOTTED: Crosby Kemper III, Anne-Imelda Radice, Jacqueline Mars, Cindy Jones, Winton Holladay, Susan Goldberg, Marcia Carlucci, Marlene Malek, Anita McBride, Sharon Rockefeller, Amy and Bret Baier, Ashley Davis, Tony Podesta, Trijsa Malisoff, Alejandra and Enrique Segura, Susan Fisher Sterling, Nancy and Marc Duber, Amy Weiss, Bonnie McElveen-Hunter, Angie Gates and Michael Kaiser. 

— Interfaith Alliance honored Rabbi Jack Moline with its annual Walter Cronkite Faith & Freedom Award on Wednesday evening at Immigrant Food at the Planet Word Museum. He previously was president of the organization. SPOTTED: Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Chris Coons (D-Del.).

— At the “Annual Bipartisan Tribute to Veterans and Those Who Serve” on Wednesday night at the Capitol Hill Club, Nikole Killion emceed and tenor Anthony Kearns performed. He dedicated “Bring Him Home” from “Les Miserables” to the 50th anniversary of the return of prisoners of war from Vietnam. SPOTTED: retired Col. Paris Davis, retired Lt. Gen. G.I. Tuck, Reps. Jim Baird (R-Ind.), Keith Self (R-Texas), Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas), retired Col. Mike Brazelton, Samuel Aronson, Susan Phalen, Kirsten Fedewa, Rick Yount, Matt Cary, Heather Hopkins and retired Col. Jim Tierney.

— The Hispanic Lobbyists Association concluded Hispanic Heritage Month on Wednesday night by celebrating Latino leaders with the Avanza Awards, including Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Resident Commissioner Jenniffer González-Colón (R-P.R.), Elena Rios, Cesar Gonzalez, Rich Lopez and Liz Lopez. Also SPOTTED: Reps. Lou Correa (D-Calif.), Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.) and Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.), Lucia Alonzo, Ivelisse Porroa-García, Art Motta, Erica Romero, Maria Luisa Boyce, Norberto Salinas, Osiris Morel, Javier Gamboa, Carlos Becerra, René Muñoz, John Mark Kolb, Marcus Garza, Erica Johnson Creamer and Gisselle Reynolds.

TRANSITION — Michelle Liz Tabajonda is joining Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán’s (D-Calif.) office as legislative assistant covering the Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee. She previously was an APAICS fellow specializing in health care with Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.).

WEEKEND WEDDING — Michelle Shevin-Coetzee, senior defense and foreign policy adviser for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), and Zack Laven, VP at Fulcrum Public Affairs and a David Schweikert alum, got married Saturday at District Winery.

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