By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

HAPPENING TODAY — AP: “Jury selection is set to begin Friday for the first defendant to go to trial in the Georgia case that accuses former President DONALD TRUMP and others of illegally scheming to overturn the 2020 election in the state. Lawyer KENNETH CHESEBRO was indicted just over two months ago along with Trump and 17 others.”

DEPT. OF SILVER LININGS — “Republicans Are Dodging a Bullet with Jim Jordan’s Collapse,” by Andrew Taylor for POLITICO Magazine

President Joe Biden speaks to the media on Air Force One during a refueling stop at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Oct. 18, 2023, as he traveled back to Washington from his trip to Israel. | Evan Vucci/AP Phoro

THE POLITICS OF A FOREIGN POLICY PRESIDENCY — The good news for JOE BIDEN this week is that he’s suddenly very popular.

The bad news is that this burst of support for the American president is in Israel.

Since the shocking 10/7 attacks by Hamas, there have been four national polls in the U.S. that show Biden stuck where he’s been for a while now, with an approval rating averaging about 40%.

These numbers come as the news has been dominated by two stories playing out in splitscreen for two solid weeks: (1) a Republican party arguably showing itself at its worst in the House and (2) Biden arguably showing himself at his best in his response to the war between Israel and Hamas.

And so far the polling data shows … nothing has changed.

To be fair, CNN’s Harry Enten notes that voters are giving Biden good marks for his handling of both Israel and Ukraine, the two issues he addressed last night in his second primetime speech from the Oval Office. Maybe that speech and his successful trip to Israel a day earlier will start to soak in and move Biden’s stubborn approval ratings.

Biden will make a new push today for a nearly $100 billion supplemental package that will largely go to aid for Ukraine. According to USA Today’s scoop, the breakdown is $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, $14 billion for border security, and $10 billion “for humanitarian assistance.”

Biden’s new lobbying campaign will continue a phase of his presidency framed around defending America’s beleaguered allies. The White House and the Biden campaign naturally argue that this is all a political winner.

Close Biden pal Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) makes the case to Michael Hirsh in a must-read piece for POLITICO Magazine this morning:

“The contrast with Republicans could not be sharper,” Coons, a co-chair of Biden’s reelection campaign, said Wednesday. He then rattled off a well-honed critique of GOP disarray: how a paralyzed House can no longer function on critical issues like aid to Israel and Ukraine; how former President Trump praised Hezbollah as “very smart” and criticized Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU just hours after the deaths of more than 1,400 Israelis; and how American voters will come to realize, at such a dangerous moment, they can’t afford an “erratic” president “who’s a disruptor.”

“I don’t think your average American wants that,” Coons said, emphasizing that Biden has far more experience than any candidate in dealing with key leaders such as Netanyahu, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN and Chinese President XI JINPING. “Having a president who is presidential, solid and trusted around the world is important to the American people and will play an important role in their [2024] decision.”

There is upside for a president acting on the world stage. The atmospherics are hard for an opponent to match: Summit meetings, denouncing America’s enemies, speeches in foreign capitals extolling freedom and democracy.

But reelection campaigns focused on foreign policy are tricky. Long before our current populist moment when more Americans are turning inward and questioning the liberal consensus about free trade and forever wars, presidents seen as overly distracted by foreign policy, no matter how noble the cause, have suffered.

There was the extreme case of LYNDON JOHNSON, who resigned over the failures in Vietnam. But no American soldiers are fighting or dying in Ukraine and Israel. The closer analogy is GEORGE H.W. BUSH, the last president who loved foreign policy and knew as much about it as Biden does. Bush won the Gulf War with minimal American casualties and expertly managed the end of the Cold War — and was then defeated by a 46-year-old governor from a small southern state whose most well-known foreign experience was not inhaling marijuana while he was a student in England.

This is a cruel fact of American presidential politics: A bad economy will beat standing up for the liberal international order almost every time. Unless Americans are directly threatened, it can be a tough sell for a president.

Last night, Biden made what is generally the hardest sales pitch in politics: trying to prove a negative.

This was the heart of his argument: “I know these conflicts can seem far away, and it’s natural to ask: Why does this matter to America? So let me share with you why making sure Israel and Ukraine succeed is vital for America’s national security.

“You know, history has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. They keep going. And the cost and the threats to America and the world keep rising. So if we don’t stop Putin’s appetite for power and control in Ukraine, he won’t limit himself just to Ukraine.”

Most people in Washington would agree with this — and that’s why the odds for passage of the supplemental are high. But we probably shouldn’t be surprised that if Biden does win this next big legislative fight, those poll numbers don’t change much.

Further reading:

— “Biden’s Moment: A President Convinced of America’s Role in the World,” by NYT’s David Sanger: “In a fractured political moment at home and abroad, it is unclear whether President Biden can bring many Americans along.”

— “Biden’s Influence Turns Israel's Ground War Plans Into ‘Something Different,’” by Bloomberg’s Ethan Bronner and Henry Meyer

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A message from Business Roundtable:

America’s status as the global leader in innovation is at risk. Key tax incentives for investment in the U.S. are being phased out while other countries double down on domestic investment. Unless Congress fully reverses these tax increases on U.S. job creators, American businesses and workers will be at a competitive disadvantage. Congress, it’s time to support American jobs and innovation. Restore essential business tax incentives. Learn more.

TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest column: “America Really Needs a W Right Now: Love him or loathe him, former President GEORGE W. BUSH provides a perfect foil for our current political mess.”

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: MIKE LAWLER — The Republican congressman from New York is one of the leaders of the resistance to Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), and yesterday was quite a day for Lawler and the #NeverJordan Republicans. Lawler spent most of the late morning and early afternoon in the GOP’s epic, nearly four-hour conference meeting, where members yelled, cursed and blamed each other for the current crisis.

At one point, one member seemed to threaten MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) with physical violence, per this account from Olivia Beavers, Jordain Carney and Sarah Ferris:

“When Matt Gaetz stepped to the microphones during Thursday’s three-hour private House GOP meeting on the speakership, the speaker he ousted promptly yelled at him to ‘sit down.’ KEVIN McCARTHY was not the only Republican to vent fury with Gaetz, the Florida conservative who successfully ousted the House’s leader. The room met Gaetz with booing, profanities and calls to back off, according to multiple lawmakers in the room. When Gaetz refused, Rep. MIKE BOST (R-Ill.) stood up and hollered a command at him that one Republican recalled as: ‘If you don’t sit down, I’ll put you down.’”

After that family meeting, Lawler huddled privately with Jordan and the other holdouts. Lawler said he did not believe Jordan persuaded any of them to change their minds. In between those meetings, his office was barraged with thousands of threatening calls demanding that Lawler reverse course and back the Ohio Republican for speaker.

In the evening, Lawler sat down with Ryan in his office in Longworth to review what exactly happened yesterday. Midway through the conversation, he learned that Jordan would force another vote at 10 a.m. today. (Jordan also announced he will hold a press conference at 8 a.m. this morning.)

Lawler was unmoved. He said he will vote no again and predicted that Jordan’s opposition will grow.

“I think he’s probably going to lose a handful more votes,” Lawler told Playbook.

You can listen to the full interview with Lawler on this week’s episode of Deep Dive. What follows are some key excerpts:

— On how yesterday went down: “It was, uh, what the French call ‘a clusterfuck.’”

— On the mood inside the Republican Conference: “[The] conference over the last few weeks has been like Festivus: the airing of the grievances. But we're past the airing of the grievances. Obviously, there's a lot of anger and frustration about why we're even here.”

— On what he said to Jordan yesterday: “Frankly, it doesn't matter who the speaker is, because if we can't govern as a group, as a conference, it doesn't matter.”

— On Gaetz and McCarthy’s ouster: “Matt Gaetz is, you know, the dog that caught the car. He didn't have a plan. He didn't have a plan for what would come next. I think he just assumed the conference would just, you know, fall in line and it'd be fine. And ‘yay, I removed Kevin McCarthy.’ … It is a constitutional crisis that has been created.”

— On expelling Gaetz from the Republican Conference: “I think there needs to be accountability. … [I]f that were to come up … that's something that I would support.”

— On the bigger issue at stake in the speakership drama: “If we don't deal with the fundamental issue here — the ability of the conference, the eight that vacated the chair, the 21 that voted against the conservative C.R., the 20-plus that voted against Kevin McCarthy in January, those that voted down the rules, if they can't coexist with the swing district members — those of us in Biden districts — if we can't find compromise within it, doesn't matter who the chair of the speaker is, you're irrelevant.”

— Who will be the next speaker of the House? “If I knew, I'd go over to the MGM right now and place a bet.”

A message from Business Roundtable:

On the Hill

The Senate is out. Massachusetts Gov. MAURA HEALEY will testify before a Banking subcommittee at a field hearing in Lowell, Mass., about federal investments in the state.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. and then take a third vote to elect a speaker.

3 things to watch …

1. Biden confirmed in his primetime address that a request for $100 billion in supplemental national security appropriations will be transmitted to the Hill today. But there’s a second supplemental in the works, covering domestic priorities such as child care, broadband and disaster relief. As our colleagues covering the White House and approps point out, it’s “likely to gain far less traction with Republicans on the Hill than its counterpart.”
   
2. House Republicans have finally made a date with DAVID WEISS, the federal prosecutor pursuing charges against HUNTER BIDEN. He’s set for a closed-door Nov. 7 interview with Jordan’s Judiciary Committee, Jordain Carney reports, adding that “means Weiss is unlikely to testify publicly before the committee.” The panel has also scheduled a key interview in another probe, into political pressure on social media platforms, with former Twitter exec YOEL ROTH, per NYT’s Luke Broadwater.
   
3. Another big bipartisan group of lawmakers is headed to Israel this weekend — this time a clasp of senators led by LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and JACK REED (D-R.I.). No details have been published on their schedule, except that their expected absence has prompted the cancellation of the customary Monday-night votes in the Senate.

At the White House

Biden will host European Council President CHARLES MICHEL and European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN for a U.S.-EU Summit at noon. In the evening, he’ll go to a campaign reception in D.C., and then the Bidens will head to Rehoboth Beach, Del.

VP KAMALA HARRIS has nothing on her public schedule.

CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

ALL POLITICS

Sen. Laphonza Butler meets with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in his office on Capitol Hill on Oct. 3, 2023, in Washington. | Anna Rose Layden/Getty Images

BUTLER SERVES BUT WON’T RUN — Newly sworn-in Sen. LAPHONZA BUTLER (D-Calif.) told NYT’s Shawn Hubler in Sacramento that she will not run for a full term next year, instead simply filling the late DIANNE FEINSTEIN’s seat on a caretaker basis. Butler said she thinks “this is not the greatest use of my voice” in the long term. “I know it’s surprising — folks don’t traditionally see people who have power let it go, but this is a moment where I’ve had to mind my own truth and hold it in my own heart.”

Butler’s choice leaves the Senate field without a significant upheaval, but it’s still mighty crowded: Democratic Reps. ADAM SCHIFF, KATIE PORTER and BARBARA LEE are jostling for the top spot, along with Republican former MLB star STEVE GARVEY and several others. Butler said she hasn’t decided whether she’ll back anyone.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT — The Supreme Court yesterday pumped the brakes on Democrats’ efforts to change the congressional map in Louisiana, declining to speed up the arrival of new district boundaries that could flip one previously gerrymandered seat to Dems. That leaves “uncertainty over the timing of a replacement map that may include a second majority-Black congressional district,” Reuters’ Andrew Chung writes.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Family members of Wadea Al Fayoume bring his casket into Mosque Foundation in Bridgeview, Ill., Oct. 16, 2023. | Nam Y. Huh/AP

MORE ON THE MIDDLE EAST — After his speech last night, Biden called the family of WADEA AL-FAYOUME, the Palestinian American boy murdered in an alleged hate crime in Illinois, NBC’s Natasha Korecki scooped.

Political fallout from the war is continuing to grow on the American left. More than 400 Hill staffers signed onto an anonymous open letter calling for members of Congress to urge an immediate cease-fire, per HuffPost.

In the State Department, HuffPost’s Akbar Shahid Ahmed reports on broad frustration and low morale over what staffers perceive as insufficient U.S. support for Palestinian lives. A “dissent cable” is in the works, as one official describes “a mutiny brewing within State at all levels.” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN last night penned a lengthy note to his employees, acknowledging many staffers’ unhappiness, Nahal Toosi reports. “He insisted, however, that the administration’s approach to the crisis has been balanced.”

More: At a congressional hearing yesterday, U.S. ambassador to Egypt nominee HERRO MUSTAFA GARG pledged to push Cairo on getting aid to Gaza, Joe Gould reports. … The latest U.S. estimate of the Palestinian death toll in this week’s hospital blast is now 100 to 300, lower than Gaza officials’ initial report of 500, NYT’s Julian Barnes scooped.

WHAT THEY’RE READING IN MIAMI — “Florida Dems hopeful Biden’s Venezuela move won’t come back to haunt them,” by Kimberly Leonard and Mia McCarthy

A message from Business Roundtable:

2024 WATCH

Rep. Dean Phillips, speaks about the infrastructure bill during a news conference, Nov. 9, 2021, in St. Paul, Minn. | Steve Karnowski/AP

ANOTHER ONE — The presidential race keeps getting more crowded, and Biden may not have the Democratic-ice-cream-lover lane to himself for long: Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.), a former gelato company co-owner, has told colleagues that he plans to launch an uphill primary challenge, Nick Wu, Elena Schneider and Holly Otterbein revealed last night. Two sources said Phillips had declared his intent, though a third says Phillips is still hedging. The moderate congressman has long made noise about Biden’s vulnerability as a nominee, and more recently made moves toward a primary run after nobody else heeded his call.

But time is ticking: It’s already too late for Phillips to get on the Nevada ballot. He could choose to focus on New Hampshire, which looks primed to hold an unsanctioned primary that “would not net Phillips substantial delegates but … could prove a major embarrassment for Biden.”

Back home, Phillips is facing his own primary challenge from Democrat RON HARRIS if he chooses to run for reelection. This morning, Playbook can exclusively report that Harris is staffing up with several senior strategists: GEORGE HORNEDO, Change Research, Blue State, JACK LOFGREN, MARV McMOORE JR. and Opalite Media.

More top reads:

• Counterprogramming: The Trump campaign is considering staging an event of its own near Miami to compete with the GOP debate he’s skipping Nov. 8, NBC’s Jake Traylor scooped. Plans are fluid, but it could be a rally in Hialeah.
• No Labels sued yesterday to try to prevent Democrats in Arizona from running on its party line in an attempt to spoil the spoilers, AP’s Jonathan Cooper reports.
• Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS is heading to Massachusetts on Monday for two high-dollar fundraisers and a meeting to benefit the state GOP, Lisa Kashinsky is scooping in Massachusetts Playbook this morning.

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Dana Bash, Franklin Foer, Steve Inskeep and Nancy Youssef.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell … retired Gen. Jack Keane … Newt Gingrich. Panel: Emily Compagno, Julia Manchester, Karl Rove and Juan Williams.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell … Philippe Lazzarini … Liz Cheney.

ABC “This Week”: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) … Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas). Panel: Donna Brazile, Terry Moran, Rachael Bade and Ramesh Ponnuru.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Mike Pence. Panel: Peter Baker, David Ignatius and Amna Nawaz.

CNN “State of the Union”: Liz Cheney … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio).

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.).

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