By Daniella Diaz

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

A meeting this evening between Jim Jordan and some of the 20-plus Republicans opposing him generated no breakthrough. | AP

TICK TOCK: The government will shut down in 29 days if Congress can’t pass a funding patch … and it has been 17 days since the House had an elected speaker.

ONE AND DONE: Newly appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) announced she will not seek re-election next year: “Knowing you can win a campaign doesn’t always mean you should run a campaign,” she said in a statement. “It may not be the decision people expected but it’s the right one for me.” (NYT’s Shawn Hubler had the scoop.)

WHAT MIGHT MOVE THE HOUSE?

The House GOP’s civil war has become a battle of attrition.

Plans for a third speaker vote, originally expected earlier this afternoon, are in serious doubt at this hour. Republican lawmakers widely panned an effort to empower acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry to move bills on the floor while speaker nominee Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) tries to figure out a way forward.

A meeting this evening between Jordan and some of the 20-plus Republicans opposing him generated no breakthrough. Several encouraged Jordan to drop out.

"We took our leader out, we took our second in command out, we took our grassroots folk hero out, or at least we're in the process of doing that,” Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) said. “That's unsustainable.”

What we know: Republicans are split. Jordan, for now, isn’t ready to call it quits, and some of his backers are gearing up for trench warfare.

"I can tell you, nobody in our conference can get to 217 on two rounds, and three legislative days. So I think he deserves more time,” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a Jordan ally, told reporters. "I'm in favor of trying. For Jordan, I would go at least another week."

Yet his opponents insist there is no negotiation to be had that would result in him winning the gavel. They’ve already detailed death threats and intimidation efforts that they say have only hardened their anti-Jordan stance.

Is there any unstoppable force that could dislodge the immovable object of House Republican turmoil?

Here’s a few things that could force a resolution:

• Escalation in the Middle East: As the devastating war continues between Israel and Hamas, lawmakers have been clear the “world is on fire” and that the  chamber needs to quickly reaffirm support for Israel, the U.S.’s strongest ally in the region. Hanging over the current conflict is the possibility that it could expand, with Iran or its proxy forces opening new fronts against Israel. Members in both parties say they’re feeling pressure from constituents to aid Israel, which has kept talks about a possible bipartisan governing compact alive.

• Money, money, money: The White House is expected to formally request funding for Israel, Ukraine and other national security priorities on Friday (more on that below), and every day that request lies dormant — remember, McHenry isn’t even referring bills to committee right now — pressure will grow for action. While some conservatives have made clear they don’t plan to support aid to Ukraine, the vast majority support aid to Israel, and that could compel Republicans to get serious about selecting a speaker.

• An approaching shutdown deadline: As we noted above, federal appropriations will expire on Nov. 17, less than a month away. It’s a sore subject for the House GOP — McCarthy was deposed as speaker because he put a clean continuing resolution on the floor after hard-liners rejected more conservative alternatives. But there’s no prospect of achieving a more GOP-friendly outcome so long as there’s no speaker. The alternative, halting paychecks for millions of government workers, isn’t good for anybody.

VIBE CHECK: “I can tell you this — there ain’t 217 votes in there for Jesus, Mary or Joseph in there, on anything,” Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) said. “Opinions on whether you need [an empowered speaker pro tem] or not are like, fill in that blank. Pick a part of the anatomy that you only have one of. Everyone’s got one.”

— Daniella Diaz, with assist from Jordain Carney

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

Don’t Let Durbin-Marshall Steal YOUR Data: Senators Dick Durbin and Roger Marshall introduced legislation allowing big-box retailers like Walmart and Target to process credit card transactions based solely on what is cheapest for them, disregarding YOUR data security. Durbin-Marshall would shift billions in consumer spending to higher-risk payment networks, weakening America’s payment system and putting consumers in a vulnerable position. Last year, Congress wisely rejected a similar Durbin-Marshall bill, and they must do so again.

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Oct. 19 where it is almost Friday (but what does that matter anymore?).

SUPPLEMENTAL SPLIT COMING

The Biden administration’s supplemental request for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the border is already dividing Senate Republicans — and it’s not even out yet.

Nine conservative senators wrote to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell urging the leaders to keep things separate. And the eye-popping expected price tag of roughly $100 billion could further alienate Republicans when it drops on Friday.

Working it: Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday morning in advance of the formal request. And Foreign Relations ranking member Jim Risch (R-Idaho) is keeping his powder dry.

“I don’t know what it looks like. The only number I’ve heard is from media,” Risch said shortly before the Senate’s last vote of the week.

Sure, getting the House GOP to go along with anything will be tough, but the Senate and its 60-vote threshold is no cakewalk, either. While McConnell has been able to bring along a chunk of his conference on past bipartisan spending deals, the nine-figure topline and the shrinking corps of Republican dealmakers stands to complicate things.

“I do support funding for Ukraine and Israel, I don’t know what the border provisions will be,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). “It’s designed to take us through the 2024 election which probably makes sense.”

Meanwhile: The Senate is still struggling to find a path forward on full-year FY2024 appropriations, with its three-bill minibus still stuck in an amendment thicket. In the interim, Schumer set up votes for next week on Michael Whitaker’s nomination to be FAA administration and Jessica Looman to lead the Wage and Hour Division at the Labor Department.

— Burgess Everett

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THE *OTHER* SUPPLEMENTAL

Lawmakers are also expecting Biden to send a separate emergency funding request next week for domestic needs, including for child care, broadband and disaster relief, according to sources familiar with the request.

"It is important for us to remember that, while Israel and Ukraine matter, what matters most to our constituents is the fact that they're having trouble making ends meet," Sen. Christopher Murphy (D-Conn.) told reporters today, neither confirming nor denying an impending domestic funding request. "If we end up too focused on the rest of the world and not focused on them, our democracy and our reputation pays a price."

Some Democrats want the president to ask for extra cash to bolster other at-home priorities, including funding for AI and quantum computing efforts authorized under the CHIPS and Science Act that Biden signed into law last year.

“Those investments are critical jobs at home and our security around the world,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) tells us. “So I think that would be a good fit.”

Reality check: The GOP-controlled House, speakerless or not, is in no mood to plus-up domestic spending. And with border security funding expected to ride on the other supplemental, there’s not much on offer here to sweeten the pot for conservatives.

— Jennifer Scholtes, Joe Gould and Caitlin Emma

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

Chuck Grassley, matchmaker: Twenty couples who met working for the Iowa Republican have gotten married. But does that put him ahead of that other Cupid named Chuck?

Patrick McHenry got a C-SPAN glowup.

Our favorite memer is at it again.

Virginia Foxx is owning it.

QUICK LINKS 

Rob Menendez’s balancing act: Defending his indicted father while not being dragged down by him, from Ry Rivard

Senate fills the void as House GOP burns from within, from Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris

Who is Patrick McHenry? A crash course on the temporary speaker, from Zachary Warmbrodt

Republicans Are Dodging a Bullet with Jim Jordan’s Collapse, from Andrew Taylor in POLITICO Magazine

Amid House speaker chaos, Georgia’s Mike Collins finds comedic relief, from Tia Mitchell at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:

CONGRESS: Don’t Let Durbin-Marshall Steal YOUR Data:
Cyber-attacks against consumers are on the rise, with large retailers like Target falling victim to breaches that expose customer information to hackers and foreign countries.

Now, mega-retailers like Walmart and Target want to leave you even more vulnerable to credit card cyber-attacks so they can pocket billions of dollars in additional profits.

After Senator Dick Durbin passed similar routing mandates for debit cards in 2010, the fraud rate for debit cards increased by NEARLY 60%. A similar outcome for credit cards would likely cost OVER $6 BILLION in additional fraud and likely require passing much of the bill onto consumers.

Last year, Congress wisely rejected a similar Durbin-Marshall bill, and they should do so again. Congress must protect consumers, preserve the integrity of the payment ecosystem, and reject this detrimental and unnecessary government intervention into the U.S. payment system.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House is ???

The Senate is out.

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FRIDAY AROUND THE HILL

*crickets*

WEDNESDAY’S ANSWER: Mike Dunn correctly answered that those chairing subpanels of the Appropriations Committee are nicknamed “cardinals.”

TODAY’S QUESTION from Mike: The first elected speaker pro tempore of the House was George Dent of Maryland. What year was he made pro temp?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to [email protected].

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening.

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