By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DATELINE TEL AVIV — President JOE BIDEN landed less than three hours ago at Ben Gurion International Airport, where he was greeted and embraced on the tarmac by Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and President ISAAC HERZOG. AP photo

Biden on the deadly Gaza hospital blast … "Based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you," he told Netanyahu, per AP. He added, “But there’s a lot of people out there who are not sure, so we’ve got a lot — we’ve got to overcome a lot of things.”

The agenda … Biden will meet later today with Israeli first responders and families of the victims of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. He will also deliver remarks before returning to Washington later tonight, spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters on Air Force One.

“He's going to get a sense from the Israelis about the situation on the ground and, more critically, their objectives, their plans, their intentions in the days and weeks ahead,” Kirby said. “And he'll be asking some tough questions. He'll be asking them as a friend — as a true friend of Israel. But he will be asking some questions of them.” More below

The unlikely centrist rebellion has backed Rep. Jim Jordan into a corner. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP

THE SPINAL COLUMN — By any measure, House Republican centrists are an endangered species.

As the GOP has drifted steadily right, their ranks have steadily thinned and their crucial role in making Congress work has become increasingly threatened. Being called a “moderate” these days isn’t even really ideological — it’s about keeping your head down, building the relationships and making the compromises that have kept American democracy on track for 247 years.

For that flexibility — and their willingness to fall in line behind party leaders — they’ve earned themselves a sneering nickname from their own colleagues: “Squishes.”

So when Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), godfather of the conservative hard-liners, won the Republican nomination to be elected speaker last week, you’d be forgiven for expecting them to, y’know, squish once again.

As one GOP aide put it to NBC’s Sahil Kapur, “Either he gets it or the moderates for the first time ever grow a spine.”

Turns out the moderates are vertebrates, after all.

Among the 20 Republicans who opposed Jordan’s bid for the gavel yesterday were a few junior frontliners with little to lose, such as Reps. JEN KIGGANS (R-Va.), MIKE LAWLER (R-N.Y.) and LORI CHAVEZ-DEREMER (R-Ore.).

But they were backed up by a cadre of powerful House veterans — people like Appropriations Committee Chair KAY GRANGER (R-Texas) and subcommittee “cardinals” MARIO DIAZ-BALART (R-Fla.), MIKE SIMPSON (R-Idaho) and STEVE WOMACK (R-Ark.), who said no to Jordan after years of watching their jurisdiction over federal spending come under attack by the hard right.

“The adults were fed up,” said one top aide to a member opposing Jordan. “They knew they had to act now or never.”

WHAT’S NEXT: The unlikely centrist rebellion has backed Jordan into a corner. His allies expected a conservative media pressure campaign to subdue any resistance. Instead —as Jordain Carney, Sarah Ferris and Olivia Beavers report — it backfired, hardening the opposition.

Now, for his candidacy to remain viable, he will need to show significant progress today when the House reconvenes for the second ballot at 11 a.m.

That his campaign for the gavel has stretched to a second day on the floor is itself a setback. Jordan allies expected a handful of protest votes, perhaps enough to force a second ballot. But they didn’t count on 20 of them.

Jordan can count on at least one vote flipping his way: Rep. DOUG LaMALFA (R-Calif.) said yesterday he’d come home to the nominee after registering his displeasure with the ouster of KEVIN McCARTHY, a close California ally.

But other holdouts seem even more dug in after receiving hundreds of calls and messages from Jordan supporters. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) shared text messages with Olivia that his wife had received, trying to pressure him into backing Jordan. They believe they can actually grow their numbers in subsequent ballots as it becomes clear Jordan has no path forward.

Still, one Jordan ally told us last night to settle in. Jordan isn’t known for backing down from a fight, and he’s not about to start now, the person predicted. “It took McCarthy 15 ballots; we’re only at one,” this person said. “This might be a waiting game.”

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JORDAN’S CHALLENGE: Other senior Republicans don’t think Jordan has that much time. McCarthy spent years building goodwill with his colleagues by raising money for their campaigns and traveling extensively to their districts. That bought him patience back in January, giving him time and space to negotiate with his own holdouts.

Jordan hasn’t earned that level of goodwill. And some senior Republicans predict that after flailing for another round or two, he’ll see a mass jailbreak as members get antsy and want move on. Team Jordan suggested they know as much by postponing the second vote, which had initially been scheduled for 6 p.m. yesterday.

What’s happened since the first vote, however, hasn’t seemed to help his case. In fact, his camp’s apparent decision to leak details of a tense post-vote meeting with Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE only further inflamed Scalise loyalists who feel as though Jordan sandbagged Scalise’s own speaker bid. (Scalise, for his part, denied the allegation that he refused to give a floor speech nominating Jordan.)

Jordan’s peace offering, an online post calling on Republicans to “stop attacking each other and come together,” came several hours later.

It did little to take the edge off the House GOP. Amid the drama yesterday, Rep. DEBBIE LESKO (R-Ariz.) announced she is retiring to spend more time with her family — a decision that surely left her colleagues thinking: After the past few weeks, who the hell can blame her?

Related reads: “Jordan’s floor failure strengthens private push to empower McHenry,” by Sarah, Olivia, Jordain and Anthony Adragna … “How conservative media figures helped to fuel the GOP speaker chaos,” by WaPo’s Sarah Ellison and Will Sommer … “A decade after one shutdown ended, the House shutdown goes on and on,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Are you at least getting a decent Halloween costume idea out of this mess? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

TOP-ED — “Nobody for Speaker of the House,” WSJ editorial: “Mr. Jordan was still seeking votes by our deadline, but if he falls short, perhaps the solution, for now, is to empower acting Speaker PATRICK McHENRY.”

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On the Hill

The House will meet at 11 a.m. for another speaker vote.

The Senate will meet at 10:30 a.m. to take up a resolution to undo a CFPB regulation, with a vote at noon. The chamber will recess in the afternoon for a Middle East briefing. The Commerce Committee will vote on nominations at 10 a.m. including MICHAEL WHITAKER as FAA administrator and several FTC commissioners. The HELP Committee will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. on MONICA BERTAGNOLLI’s nomination as NIH director.

3 things to watch …

1. Tick-tock: Congress now has a mere 30 days until the next government shutdown deadline, and there hasn’t been much forward movement on appropriations, to say the least. The House is preoccupied with other things, obviously, and the Senate, meanwhile, has yet to get any spending bills on the floor. There’s some hope that could change in the coming days, with party leaders working to jump-start a three-bill “minibus.”
   
2. Democrats are rushing to confirm former Treasury Secretary JACK LEW as ambassador to Israel, and his Senate confirmation hearing is set to kick off before the Foreign Relations Committee at 10:30 a.m. But even with war raging in Gaza, he’s not going to get a smooth ride from Republicans. Several have signaled that they see Lew as part of a failed policy toward Iran, and Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) is accusing him of having “misled and lied to Congress in the past” on the subject. 
   
3. Senators will meet at 3:30 p.m. for a classified briefing on the Israel-Hamas war from DNI AVRIL HAINES, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs Chair C.Q. BROWN. One person who will not be attending: Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), who announced yesterday he would skip the briefing amid questions about a new charge that he back-channeled illegally with the Egyptian government.

At the White House

Biden is in Israel today, before returning later to Washington.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will speak at a Hispanic Heritage Month reception in the Rose Garden at 5 p.m.

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Wounded Palestinian children lay at the al-Shifa hospital, Oct. 17, 2023. | Abed Khaled/AP

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The Gaza hospital blast, estimated to kill more than 500 people by Palestinian authorities, immediately upended Biden’s trip to the region: Palestinian President MAHMOUD ABBAS pulled out of his summit with Arab leaders and Biden then canceled the trip’s entire leg in Jordan. While Biden suggested Israelis were not at fault for the catastrophe, there has not yet been a reliable independent assessment of who was to blame: Hamas immediately fingered an Israeli airstrike, while Israel said it was a Palestinian blast gone wrong. The U.S. is examining intelligence about the incident that Israel has shared, per CNN.

Biden’s trip to Israel carries significant risk as a test of Biden’s regional influence, policy decisions and political sway, the WSJ writes. It also carries some literal physical risk for him, entering into a mercurial active war zone, WaPo writes. His goals for the trip include not just showing support for Israel but also preventing the U.S. from getting drawn more deeply into the conflict, Alex Ward and Jonathan Lemire report. Yet the White House has been discussing potentially using military force in the war if Hezbollah enters, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. More from NBC on how the trip was planned

Back in Washington, the administration is weighing asking Congress for a massive $100 billion supplemental funding package that spans Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the border, Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs, Roxana Tiron and Zach Cohen report.

Biden also has to navigate rising fears about related violence stateside: Top Arab American and Muslim leaders told the administration harshly and directly that his language risks dehumanizing Palestinians, Holly Otterbein scoops this morning. And there are concerns about growing threats on all sides around the U.S., per the AP.

More fallout: “U.S. Response to Israel-Hamas War Draws Fury in Middle East,” NYT … “To Return Hostages Taken by Hamas, the U.S. Calls Its Friend Qatar,” Bloomberg … “Treasury to launch new sanctions against Hamas this week,” Axios … “Middle East War Adds to Surge in International Arms Sales,” NYT … “Israel flights become latest partisan feud,” by Alex Daugherty … “Meet the man tasked with keeping a lid on the Middle East,” NBC

ALL POLITICS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — New polling from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shows an intensely divided country in which partisan rancor has grown so deep that many Americans support authoritarian or unconstitutional proposals. To wit, here’s the percentage of respondents that at least somewhat back radical ideas:

• Exploring alternatives to democracy: 31% of DONALD TRUMP supporters, 24% of Biden supporters.
• Using violence to stop the other side: 41% of Biden supporters, 38% of Trump supporters.
• Suspending elections in times of crisis: 30% of Trump supporters, 25% of Biden supporters.
• Red or blue states seceding from the union: 41% of Trump supporters, 30% of Biden supporters.

There’s lots more in the poll, which also finds Biden leading Trump 52% to 48% in the 2024 horse race. See all the details here

DEMOCRACY DIES IN DARKNESS — “The GOP’s Secret to Protecting Gerrymandered Electoral Maps? Claim Privilege,” by ProPublica’s Marilyn Thompson: “Through new and expansive assertions of privilege, Republican legislatures around the country are shielding their work on allegedly discriminatory voting maps to prevent the public from finding out how and why they made their decisions.”

DYNAMIC TO WATCH — “Black Voters Have New Power in Mississippi. Can They Elect a Democrat?” by NYT’s Nick Corasaniti: “The fall of a Jim Crow-era election law and a restoration of felons’ voting rights have given Black voters new sway in the state. Democrats’ underdog nominee for governor is looking to capitalize.”

RETIREMENT ROUNDUP — Following Lesko’s retirement announcement, two familiar names emerged in the race to replace her: ABE HAMADEH immediately jumped in, and Ally Mutnick reports there’s some noise about BLAKE MASTERS. Her district in the Phoenix suburbs is seen as a fairly safe Republican seat.

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WAR IN UKRAINE

President Joe Biden speaks at Tioga Marine Terminal on October 13, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. | Mark Makela/Getty Images

THE LONG-RANGE GAME — What’s the backstory behind Biden’s escalatory decision to provide longer-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, which surged into public view yesterday when Kyiv deployed them? For 1.5 years, Ukraine had placed the missiles at the top of their requests from the West — and Biden had said no. Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary and Alex Ward scooped that Biden made the call a month ago, reversing himself and deciding to send an older, medium-range version of the system.

Now comes NYT’s David Sanger with the fuller backstory: Blinken had already backed sending the missiles for a while, but the new plan finally overcame concerns from the Pentagon. The story of the decision, Sanger writes, “is more complex than a caricature circulating in Washington that Mr. Biden is cautious to a fault, and says no until the pressure is insurmountable.”

2024 WATCH

DeSANTIS’ DOLLAR DOWNSWING, PART I — “Ron DeSantis has a money problem hiding behind his donation numbers,” by Jessica Piper: “[R]oughly 75 percent of all money raised by DeSantis came from donors who can no longer give again for the primary … No other candidate comes close to those figures.”

DeSANTIS’ DOLLAR DOWNSWING, PART II — “Nikki Haley nabs fundraiser from GOP donor who previously supported DeSantis,” by ABC’s Olivia Rubin and Will Steakin: “Investor KEITH RABOIS, a Florida-based venture capitalist and alum of the so-called ‘PayPal Mafia,’ is expected to host the fundraiser for [NIKKI] HALEY in Miami later this month.”

TRUMP CARDS

GAGGED — Trump’s lawyers said yesterday that they plan to appeal Judge TANYA CHUTKAN’s partial gag order on the former president in his federal criminal election subversion case, per the AP. Insightful stories from Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney and NYT’s Charlie Savage and Alan Feuer lay out the many questions and obstacles looming over this gag order: How can Chutkan possibly enforce it? Whom does it gag — and whom does it protect? And how will higher courts rule on this essentially unprecedented issue on appeal? Trump has already attacked the order and inaccurately described its purview.

A RARE PULLBACK — “Special counsel Jack Smith pulls subpoena over pro-Trump fundraising,” by WaPo’s Josh Dawsey, Perry Stein and Devlin Barrett: “The withdrawal of the subpoena [to Save America] earlier this month indicates [JACK] SMITH is scaling back at least part of his inquiry into the political fundraising work that fed and benefited from unfounded claims that the election was stolen.”

A SMART STEPBACK — “Trump’s pileup of courtroom battles isn’t looming. It’s here,” by Kyle, Erica Orden and Josh: “Trump’s firehose of civil and criminal encumbrances is beginning to keep him off the campaign trail — and he wants everybody to know it.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

An electric vehicle is plugged into a charger in Los Angeles, on Aug. 25, 2022. | Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

BOOGIE WOOGIE WOOGIE — The electric vehicle revolution Biden wants to create depends on mayors and other local leaders to make it happen. And POLITICO’s latest survey of 50 mayors across the country finds that while the vast majority support the goal, less than half say they’re even somewhat prepared to implement it, Liz Crampton reports this morning. There’s plenty of work yet to do to accelerate this key piece of the clean energy transition, from more charging stations to improvements to the grid to more skilled electric workers.

Electric vehicles are stuck in a catch-22: “Consumers won’t feel comfortable buying an EV until they have adequate access to public chargers to avoid getting stranded on the road. But cities don’t currently have enough money to incentivise wide scale adoption.” But the Biden administration’s massive funding investments are just starting to roll out.

MEDIAWATCH

FOR YOUR RADAR — “In book, former Cuomo aide claims inappropriate behavior by NYT reporter,” by WaPo’s Erik Wemple: “New York Times reporter JESSE McKINLEY helped to bring down New York Gov. ANDREW M. CUOMO. … Then he disappeared.”

KNOWING BROOKE SINGMAN — “The Most Powerful Fox News Reporter You’ve Never Heard Of,” by The Daily Beast’s Justin Baragona and Jake Lahut: “She’s … ruffled feathers with her seemingly unfettered and recent access to Trump … [Several GOP and Fox sources] suspect Singman could be a candidate for press secretary