When horrible things happen, people naturally want to hold someone accountable. We've seen that time and again with the Israel-Hamas conflict. Last week, Israeli hospital staff members threw out a government minister, yelling that they "destroyed this country." In the days since the war against Hamas began, Israelis have been trying to figure out how Hamas was a) emboldened enough to launch an attack and b) able to completely evade Israel's security. Many appear to have decided the answer to both questions is this: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government messed up.
According to Ha'aretz, a leading Israeli newspaper, polls may provide a clarifying picture about what Israelis are feeling right now. When asked who they would prefer to see as prime minister after the war, two-thirds of Israelis answered "anyone else" other than Netanyahu. Only 21 percent supported Netanyahu.
Netanyahu and his government were at the center of controversy well before Hamas's assault, as its push for far right policies generated enormous backlash and protests in Israel. The war has only intensified concerns about Netanyahu's governance, and made it clear Israelis are willing to criticize their government — even if it may seem counterintuitive to some in time of war.
I spoke with democracy and policy reporter Zack Beauchamp about what the Israeli public's frustration with its leaders could mean for the war and for Israel.
Izzie: After 9/11, Americans rallied around the Bush administration. Are Israelis doing the same with Netanyahu's government?
Zack: Israelis support their government's military operation against Hamas and are putting that first. But it's also very clear that they are furious at Netanyahu for allowing this to happen, a much more critical reaction than Americans had back in 2001.
Back then, President Bush's approval rating peaked at 92 percent. A recent piece in the newspaper Ha'aretz, written by leading Israeli pollster Dahlia Scheindlin, surveyed the evidence and found that "Netanyahu's approval ratings have hit rock bottom in Israel." One poll found that, were elections held tomorrow, his Likud party would lose 40 percent of its seats in Israel's parliament and its governing majority. It's not hard to see why: In another poll of Israeli Jews, about three-quarters said that the current government bore either "great" or "very great" responsibility for the attack.
Izzie: Why do Israelis blame Netanyahu for the attack?
Zack: Because he's responsible! I wrote a piece about this last week for Vox, and more evidence has emerged since. But the simple version is that Netanyahu's government failed to see the threat from Hamas, and deployed significant military resources away from the Gaza border to deal with problems in the West Bank that were partially of their own creation. More broadly, it's been an open secret for years that Netanyahu's government has propped up Hamas (through certain economic policies regarding Gaza) in order to keep the Palestinians divided and preclude a negotiated two-state solution. He's said as much.
Izzie: So Israel now has a "unity government" with former Minister of Defense Benny Gantz and his opposition party, where power is shared. Could this change the calculus?
Zack: It's possible, but I doubt it. Gantz has joined the government to manage the war and ensure Israeli security; he is a former IDF chief of staff who takes a fairly hawkish line when it comes to Palestinian militants, and cares deeply about winning this war (though what "winning" means is unclear). But his disagreements with Netanyahu on other issues are profound and existential, not the kind of thing that could be papered over. After the current fighting is over, I expect Gantz to join the chorus blaming Netanyahu for the attack and positioning himself as a more credible alternative on security issues.
Izzie: What are the long-term implications for Israeli public opinion?
Zack: It's impossible to say. The truth is that this is an unprecedented political situation, arguably the greatest disaster in Israel's entire history. That makes it very, very, very difficult to predict what comes next — especially since a lot could depend on the military choices Israel makes in Gaza.
Historically, terrorist attacks push Israelis to the right: There's fairly solid political science research on this point. But this time around might be different: Netanyahu was governing at the head of a far-right coalition, and Israelis blame his government for the attack. It's possible this leads to a reaction in the other direction, a flight back toward the center and away from the right-wing extreme that's been gaining steam in the past decade. But I don't want to make any predictions at this point; it's simply too uncertain an environment.
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