By Charlie Mahtesian and Calder McHugh

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley greets supporters after signing papers to get on the Republican presidential primary ballot at the New Hampshire Statehouse on Oct. 13, 2023, in Concord, N.H. | Michael Dwyer/AP

SLOW AND STEADY — After months of parsing polls and debate performances, we’ve got some fresh data on the state of the 2024 presidential race. The latest Federal Election Commission reports offer a revealing look at the financial vigor of the various Republican campaigns, letting us see who’s minting money and who’s sputtering. The quarterly filings also underscore an emerging campaign storyline — Nikki Haley is on a trajectory to become the Trump alternative.

Former President Donald Trump remains dominant in polling and in fundraising. But the new FEC reports — and recent polling — reveal the former South Carolina governor and ambassador’s momentum, which began after a strong performance in the first GOP debate in June.

Along with her gradual rise in the polls, Haley is raising enough money to be competitive with Florida Gov. Ron Desantis, who’s held the second-place position since entering the race in May but has seen his fundraising slow. In the second quarter, DeSantis crushed Haley, pulling in $20.1 million to her $5.3 million. In the last three months, the gap has closed dramatically, as DeSantis’ campaign fundraising has slowed to $11.2 million raised while Haley’s has increased to $8.2 million raised. DeSantis still pulled in more cash than Haley this quarter, but their trend lines are moving in opposite directions.

And as a result of Haley’s relatively lean campaign operation — burning $3.5 million in expenses compared to DeSantis’ $10.6 million this quarter — she now has $11.6 million cash on hand, of which she has access to $9.1 million in the primary. DeSantis, by comparison, now has $12.3 million cash on hand. Of that number, he can only use $5 million in the primary race; he was forced to downsize his staff over the summer.

The cash totals only tell part of the story. Haley’s slow and steady surge isn’t fully appreciated because she’s still languishing in 4th place in national polls, behind Trump, DeSantis and even Vivek Ramaswamy, according to the 538 national polling average.

The national polls, however, are misleading — after all, presidential nominees aren’t selected in national primaries. In the individual early states that matter, Haley’s position is stronger. She’s now in second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to the 538 polling averages in those states, after surpassing DeSantis in both in early September.

Haley’s now in third place in Iowa, well behind the Florida governor, but she has narrowed the gap considerably. At the beginning of June, DeSantis had 27 percent to Haley’s four percent; today, DeSantis is at 17 percent to her 10 percent. While Haley still has a ways to go in Iowa, it’s worth noting another trendline of interest that might work to her advantage as she attempts to become positioned as the Trump alternative — over the past decade, Iowa has elected Republican women to the Senate, the governorship and to two of the state’s four congressional seats. There’s a long way between here and the January 15 Iowa Caucuses, but Haley’s arrow is pointing up.

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— Judge imposes gag order on Donald Trump in D.C. trial: A federal judge has barred Donald Trump from attacking witnesses, prosecutors and court staff involved in his Washington, D.C., criminal case, imposing a gag order that sharply escalates the tension between Trump’s 2024 bid for the presidency and the realities of his status as a criminal defendant. For Trump, it’s one of the first tangible consequences of his multiple brushes with the criminal justice system, in this case on four felony charges related to his effort to subvert the 2020 election. Chutkan has scheduled Trump’s trial to begin on March 4 and emphasized today that the date would not change. “This trial will not yield to the election cycle and we will not revisit the trial date,” Chutkan said.

— Massachusetts governor warns state is running out of room to house migrants: Democratic Gov. Maura Healey has a message for migrants looking to come to Massachusetts: we don’t have room for you. Massachusetts is required to provide immediate housing to qualifying families under a decades-old “right-to-shelter” law, one of the few in the U.S. But the governor warned today that the state will hit the number of migrant and homeless families it can safely serve through its emergency shelter system by the end of the month. “We are not ending the right-to-shelter law,” Healey said in a press conference at the State House late this morning. “We are being very clear, though, that we are not going to be able to guarantee placement for folks who are sent here after the end of this month.”

— Trump sues Christopher Steele over dossier: A lawyer for Donald Trump told a London judge today that the ex-president plans to prove that “shocking and scandalous claims” about him in a largely discredited report by a former British spy were false and harmed his reputation. Trump has sued the company founded by Christopher Steele, who created a dossier in 2016 that contained rumors and uncorroborated allegations about Trump that erupted in a political storm just before he was inaugurated. Trump is seeking damages from Orbis Business Intelligence for allegedly violating British data protection laws.

CANCELLATION POLICY — The super PAC supporting Tim Scott’s presidential bid is canceling most of its remaining TV spending, reversing course after reserving $40 million in ads for him ahead of the Iowa caucuses, reports POLITICO’s Natalie Allison.

The retreat from TV is the latest sign of how dire the primary has become for a candidate who once anticipated outside help from big donors — but who is now polling in low single digits and hasn’t yet qualified for the third debate.

In a memo to donors, Trust In the Mission PAC, also known as “TIM PAC,” announced it will cancel “all of our Fall media inventory,” according to a copy of the document obtained by POLITICO.

“We are doing what would be obvious in the business world but will mystify politicos — we aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative,” wrote Rob Collins, co-chair of the super PAC, who said the “Never-Trump field” is going to be “wasting money this fall” trying to undermine Trump’s current lead.

ASSAULT ALLEGATIONS — A political consulting firm working to elect presidential candidate Nikki Haley is being sued by a woman who alleges she was sexually assaulted by a superior — and that top officials at the firm did nothing about it, reports POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman and Holly Otterbein.

Mark Harris, a cofounder of the Pittsburgh-based firm ColdSpark, is mentioned in the lawsuit, which was filed in August in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania. Harris is the lead strategist for Haley’s super PAC, SFA Fund Inc. ColdSpark is also consulting for Dave McCormick, the GOP Senate candidate in Pennsylvania.

Polish opposition leader, former premier and head of the Centrist Civic Coalition bloc, Donald Tusk flashes the victory sign at rally in Warsaw on Oct. 1, 2023. | Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images

TUSKS UP — Poland’s opposition parties look like they’ve won a solid victory in the country’s general election — and if the result holds it signals a radical change both in Poland and in the EU, where the current Law and Justice (PiS) party government has warred for eight years with Brussels over accusations it’s backsliding on the bloc’s democratic rules, writes Jan Cienski.

According to a final exit poll released this afternoon that takes into account early vote counting, PiS had 36.1 percent support, followed by the centrist Civic Coalition with 31 percent, the center-right Third Way with 14 percent, the Left with 8.6 percent and the far-right Confederation with 6.8 percent. In 2019, PiS won 43.6 percent of the vote. The poll was conducted by IPSOS and was shared with Poland’s three main television networks.

The preliminary results suggest that Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister of Poland between 2007 and 2014 and the President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019 will return to power.

It’s a stunning defeat for PiS, which has been in power since 2015.

The party mobilized the full resources of the state to help it win, and it was also strongly backed by state media — which are firmly in the ruling party’s camp. However, PiS was hobbled by a growing number of scandals — including allegations that officials were selling visas for bribes. Eight years of tensions and social conflict, with fights over abortion, rule of law, grain imports from Ukraine, and awful relations with the EU, which has frozen the payout of billions over rule of law worries, also eroded support for PiS.

PiS looks set to win too few seats to take a majority in parliament even it if combines with Confederation — which has said it won’t form a coalition with Law and Justice. The three other parties have pledged to work together to oust PiS.

BORDER BOTTLENECK — Truckloads of aid idled at Egypt’s border with Gaza today, as residents and humanitarian groups pleaded for water, food and fuel for dying generators, saying the tiny Palestinian territory sealed off by Israel after last week’s rampage by Hamas was near total collapse.

Hospitals full of wounded were on the verge of losing electricity, and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced from their homes searched for bread. Israel maintained punishing airstrikes across Gaza as a ground invasion loomed, while Hamas militants kept up a barrage of rocket attacks — and tensions mounted near the Israel-Lebanon border.

More than a week after Israel stopped entry of any supplies, all eyes were on the Rafah crossing, Gaza’s connection to Egypt. Mediators were trying to reach a cease-fire that would allow aid in and trapped foreigners out. Israeli airstrikes forced the crossing to shut down last week, and local media reported Israel struck the crossing again today.

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FRUIT WARS — In Michoacán, Mexico, a third of the world’s avocados are grown and cartels vie for control of the crop. But in one town in the region — Cherán — the local government has banned the fruit over concerns about the steep environmental impacts associated with avocados. The cultivation of avocados requires a huge amount of land and even more water. And in the United States, where four out of every five avocados being consumed are from Michoacán, demand for avocados continues to grow. For Harper’s Magazine, Alex Sammon traveled to Cherán to understand the government’s goals, and what they mean for the environmental and economic future of the region.

On this date in 1995: Members of the Nation of Islam march toward the Capitol in Washington during the Million Man March, a gathering of Black men and civil rights advocacy groups. | Greg Gibson/AP Photo

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