By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

MAYBE NEXT TIME — “$1.73 billion Powerball jackpot goes to lucky lottery player in California,” AP

AMERICA’S VICTIMS — “More than 20 Americans were killed in Israel. Here’s what we know so far,” WaPo

Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) speaks with reporters after he was nominated by House Republicans to be Speaker of the House on Capitol Hill on Oct. 11, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

SCALISE CLAWS FOR 217  — House Republicans nominated a new speaker yesterday — only to see a group of Republicans balk and threaten to deny him the votes for the gavel. (Talk about deja vu.)

Right now, there’s one question Capitol Hill is obsessing over: Is speaker nominee STEVE SCALISE just KEVIN McCARTHY 2.0 — another man whose dreams of the gavel are going nowhere fast?

It’s easy to see why many people are writing off the Louisiana Republican. 

For starters, there’s the math: There appear to be at least a dozen Republicans publicly committed to voting for someone other than Scalise on the floor — meaning he’s far short of the House majority needed to win the speakership.

Then there’s what’s driving that disaffection: In addition to that dozen, scores of other House Republicans are still (1) angry that Scalise’s team helped kill a proposed rule change to increase the threshold for winning the nomination in conference, or (2) sour that their allies, McCarthy and Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), have lost their bids for the speakership.

“I just don’t think Steve’s got the votes,” Rep. BARRY MOORE (R-Ala.) told our colleague Olivia Beavers yesterday afternoon, retracting his support for Scalise and announcing that, following a Freedom Caucus meeting, he’d vote against him.

BUT, BUT, BUT … Scalise’s allies say people would be foolish to write him off. And this morning, we figured we’d go against the grain and play devil’s advocate. Here’s why his allies say he still has a path:

 1. Scalise has already won the backing of some of the hard-liners.

Of the eight House Republicans who ousted McCarthy as speaker, only two have said firmly they won’t back Scalise on the House floor: Reps. BOB GOOD (R-Va.) and NANCY MACE (R-S.C.).

This isn’t by accident. We’re told from people close with Scalise that even before he won the nomination, the leader spent time talking with GOP lawmakers he knew would back Jordan for the nomination in conference — not to try to change their minds, but to see if he had any shot at winning their support on the floor if he were to get the nod from the conference.

The outreach has at least partially paid off. While Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.) has not signaled how he will vote, others in that #NeverKevin camp — from TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) to ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.) and MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.) — have said they’ll back Scalise. Last night on CNN, Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.) said he won’t be the one to stand in Scalise’s way, signaling that he’ll give him a chance.

Even Mr. Hell No himself is a yes: Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) exited yesterday’s election and emphatically declared, “Long live Speaker Scalise!”

2. For most of Scalise’s detractors, this isn’t personal.

That’s a key difference between where he sits and where McCarthy long struggled. Many on the hard right didn’t trust McCarthy and were simply biding their time to take him out. This isn’t the case with most of Scalise’s holdouts, as he’s never made them promises that he hasn’t kept.

The reasons for their opposition are many: Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) says she’s worried about Scalise’s health situation and believes he needs to focus on his cancer treatments. Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) was unimpressed by how his rule proposal was handled. Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) wants a commitment that Republicans won’t vote on massive omnibus bills. And Mace, who touted Scalise’s endorsement in her 2020 campaign, says she can’t in good conscience back a speaker who once spoke to a white supremacist group — a reference to a 2002 incident in Louisiana.

At least some of these concerns seem addressable. And indeed, Scalise has already started wooing skeptics. Yesterday, Rep. ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-Fla.) went from undecided to Scalise backer after she spoke with him about her desire to impeach President JOE BIDEN, subpoena HUNTER BIDEN and defund special counsel JACK SMITH’s probe.

3. Will those who DO have problems with Scalise really take him down on the floor? 

While we said most detractors appear to have policy or strategic concerns about Scalise, some are in fact actually driven by personal hostility. McCarthy and Jordan allies are still steaming about Scalise winning the nomination. In the former camp: McCarthy ally LLOYD SMUCKER (R-Pa.) tweeted that he would back Jordan on the floor, while CARLOS GIMENEZ (R-Fla.) says he’ll vote McCarthy on the floor until the former speaker tells him otherwise.

Then there’s Rep. MAX MILLER (R-Ohio), who was among the first Republicans to exit the GOP elections and declare that he’ll only vote for Jordan. And Rep. MIKE TURNER, a centrist from Ohio who backed Jordan, says he’s undecided.

But it seems difficult to imagine members like these — who are typically allied with GOP leaders and row with the team — opposing Scalise on the floor, particularly after they were furious about Gaetz upending the institution just days ago. We’ll see if Scalise can win their favor.

A NOTE OF CAUTION: Positive spin aside, we should note that Scalise’s challenges go beyond the current whip list. Last night, The Messenger’s Stephen Neukam and Marc Caputo reported that Team Trump doesn’t intend to lift a finger to help Scalise rally support. Neither have some members of GOP leadership who boast considerable influence and relationships with lawmakers, we hear.

The clock also isn’t on his side. Unlike McCarthy, who spent two months whipping votes for the speakership — if not years laying the groundwork — Scalise was thrust into this power vacuum with little heads-up. While his leadership operation thrives on elections and he won the nomination yesterday, a whopping 99 House Republicans opposed Scalise and backed Jordan instead. That means Scalise has a long way to go to nail down 217.

And the longer he takes, the harder it could get, should more members come out against him.

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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COMING TODAY — “What to Watch in the CPI Report: A Mild Inflation Reading Could Keep Fed on Hold,” by WSJ’s Gabriel Rubin

SCOOP: BIDEN SPEECH BACKSTORY — Pro-Israel Democrats were cheered by the unequivocal tone of Biden’s speech Tuesday afternoon about Hamas’ attack.

“This was an act of sheer evil,” Biden said before recounting the ghastly details of how Hamas “slaughtered” civilians, how it “massacred” young people and how women were “raped, assaulted, paraded as trophies.”

Biden avoided any hint of language that suggested Israel’s role in Gaza could ever justify Hamas’ terrorism.

“So, in this moment, we must be crystal clear,” Biden said. “We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself and respond to this attack.”

But the early drafts of the speech were far less clear, we’re told. It was Biden himself who banished any wishy-washy language, which included more inter-agency input that struck a muddled tone to Biden’s ears.

“The speech that came into speech prep and the speech that came out were vastly different,” said one knowledgeable source. “Whenever an aide tried to water it down or both-sides it, Biden angrily and forcefully shot it down.”

Biden’s approach is similar to what he did during the Israel-Gaza war in May 2021, when Biden stuck by BENJAMIN NETANYAHU during the Israeli PM’s ferocious response to a heavy rocket attack from Hamas. Biden’s view then was that only by unequivocally backing Israel did he have any chance of influencing Netanyahu if the conflict escalated to a point that the American president needed to urge restraint.

As Franklin Foer reports in his recent book, “The Last Politician,” Biden, who spoke to Netanyahu six times during the 11-day conflict, told aides the key was to “smother Netanyahu with love.”

— Related read: “For Democrats, Crisis in Israel Could Be a Unifying Force,” by NYT’s Lisa Lerer and Jennifer Medina

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On the Hill

The House will meet at noon. The Senate is out.

3 things to watch …

1. The attack on Israel has put $6 billion in recently unfrozen Iranian assets squarely in the congressional crosshairs. The funds, unlocked as part of a prisoner swap consummated last month, are sitting in a Qatari bank and are reserved for humanitarian use. But lawmakers in both parties want to re-freeze the funds to punish Iran’s support for Hamas. Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL and Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) have teamed up on a bill; Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) is preparing his own legislation; and Rep. DAVID SCHWEIKERT (R-Ariz.) filed a similar measure in the House. At least eight Democratic senators are also on board, and that list could grow today. More from Burgess Everett
   
2. Congress’ only Palestinian American, Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.), has been under a microscope since Saturday’s attack. Footage of Tlaib ignoring a reporter’s questions about reported Hamas atrocities was in regular rotation on Fox News yesterday, and a Michigan colleague, GOP Rep. JACK BERGMAN, moved to censure her. Tlaib responded in a Detroit Free Press interview, decrying Hamas’ “war crimes” but also equating them with “the collective punishment of Palestinians” by Israel. The censure effort, she added, “is rooted in bigotry, that somehow because of my ethnicity and my faith that I support terrorism.”
   
3. Six fellow New York GOP freshmen moved to expel Rep. GEORGE SANTOS from the House yesterday, a day after federal prosecutors filed 10 new criminal counts against him. “He’s a stain on the institution,” said one sponsor, Rep. ANTHONY D’ESPOSITO (R-N.Y.). But don’t expect much to happen: House Republicans can’t afford to make their five-seat majority any slimmer, and expect party leaders to point out that Santos was already referred to the House Ethics Committee back in May. More in Huddle

At the White House

Biden will meet with CEOs in the Roosevelt Room at 4 p.m. to discuss the economy.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will head to Nevada for an event at the North Las Vegas campus of the College of Southern Nevada at 3:45 p.m. Eastern time, before traveling on to LA.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City, Oct. 11, 2023. | Fatima Shbair/AP Photo

THE MIDDLE EAST VIEW FROM WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is planning to link four disparate priorities in a supplemental funding package to try to get them all through Congress: (1) Israel, (2) Ukraine, (3) Taiwan and (4) the border, NBC’s Abigail Williams, Julie Tsirkin, Courtney Kube and Carol Lee scooped. … But in Congress, it’s looking less and less likely that Republicans will accept tying Ukraine aid to Israel aid, Connor O’Brien, Anthony Adragna, Joe Gould and Nick Wu report. … And there remains broad uncertainty about what exactly the request will be, Myah Ward and Adam Cancryn report.

Turmoil on the right: Trump in a speech last night criticized Israel, said it needs to get stronger, and called Hezbollah “very smart,” prompting a harsh and direct rebuke from Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS on X. … Meanwhile, Republicans are calling on the Biden administration to get tougher on Iranian oil sanctions, even if it pushes gas prices higher, Manuel Quiñones and Bob King report.

N.B.: NYT’s Adam Entous, Julian Barnes and Jonathan Swan scooped that U.S. intelligence so far indicates “key Iranian leaders were surprised by the Hamas attack in Israel, information that has fueled U.S. doubts that Iran played a direct role in planning the assault.”

Turmoil on the left: House Democrats fumed at each other in an internal meeting over the war, when Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.) said of Muslim leaders either that “they should feel guilty” or “they’re all guilty,” depending on who’s recounting it, Holly Otterbein, Nick Wu and Elena Schneider report. Rep. GREG CASAR (D-Texas) then told Gottheimer that it was a “shit thing to say” and he was “shameful.” ... Meanwhile, the Democratic Socialists of America are suffering heavy blowback in New York and elsewhere for a range of pro-Palestinian views, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman report. … Rep. SHRI THANEDAR (D-Mich.) renounced his DSA membership yesterday (though an official in the Metro Detroit DSA told the Detroit Free Press’ Todd Spangler that Thanedar was booted from the group last month over his support of Indian PM NARENDRA MODI).

On the ground: The State Department increased the number of Americans confirmed dead in Israel to 22, per The Hill. … The Biden administration is not airlifting Americans out of Israel, at least for now, Oriana Pawlyk reports. … The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is escalating: “Most of the 2.3 million people in the Gaza Strip have no electricity and no water,” Reuters’ Nidal Al-Mughrabi reports. “And, with hundreds of Israeli strikes raining down on their tiny enclave, they have nowhere to run.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

GETTING CREATIVE — “U.S. intensifies push to use Moscow’s $300 billion war chest for Kyiv,” by WaPo’s Jeff Stein, John Hudson and Amanda Coletta: “Considerable amounts of Kremlin funds are frozen in Western nations, and the Biden administration is increasingly interested in using them to benefit Ukraine.”

THE LATEST TRANCHE — “U.S. Announces New Military Aid for Ukraine as Obstacles Mount,” by WSJ’s Gordon Lubold in Brussels: “The package, valued at about $200 million, was announced by Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN ahead of a meeting with allies here.”

2024 WATCH

Cornel West speaks at the National Press Club, Feb. 21, 2017 in Washington, D.C. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

SPOILER ALERT — Why did CORNEL WEST leave the Green Party to run for president as an independent? His departure was part of a messy fracture with JILL STEIN and the party establishment — and underscores the broader tensions at their end of the ideological spectrum, Calder McHugh reports in a big POLITICO Magazine story this morning. “West thinks the Greens can’t take him where he wants to go. The Greens think West is throwing away movement politics and blowing up his own campaign to boot,” Calder writes. “With some remove, it’s easy to see the split as the latest example of the narcissism of small differences that’s plagued segments of the modern left in recent years.”

Meanwhile, the roster of high-profile candidates keeps growing: CENK UYGUR, the Young Turks founder and longtime progressive commentator, announced last night that he’s jumping into the Democratic primary against Biden, Semafor’s Dave Weigel reports. Though Uygur is a naturalized citizen — and thus ineligible for the presidency — he says he’ll take the issue to the Supreme Court and win.

More top reads:

• Biden filed to run in Nevada’s 2024 primary yesterday, the first state in which he’s done so — making his reelect official in a new way, NBC’s Mike Memoli reports.
• Who watches the watchmen: “RNC plans to recruit thousands of poll workers and watchers for 2024,” by Axios’ Erin Doherty
• Biden got another disastrous poll yesterday: Emerson has him losing Pennsylvania to Trump, 36% to 45%, even as Sen. BOB CASEY (D-Pa.) leads DAVID McCORMICK 41% to 33%. A bit better for Biden: A Fox News national poll finds the president edging out Trump 49% to 48%, while losing to DeSantis or NIKKI HALEY.

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MORE POLITICS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: NEA ENDORSES GALLEGO — The National Education Association and Arizona Education Association today are officially recommending Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) in the Arizona Senate race.

CASH DASH — Rep. MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.) raised $335,000 in the third quarter as he considers a Senate bid, The Daily Caller’s Mary Lou Masters scooped.

NOT ALL IN THE FAMILY — If indicted Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) resigns before his term finishes, Gov. PHIL MURPHY will likely not appoint his own wife, TAMMY MURPHY, to the seat, he said yesterday. The New Jersey first lady is considering running in the regular election.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — At a closely watched South Carolina redistricting hearing yesterday, the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority sounded likely to reinstate a map that gave Mace more favorable lines, The State’s Joseph Bustos reports. Those justices indicated that they thought the gerrymander was for political (acceptable) rather than racial (unacceptable) reasons.

GATHERING HUNTER — “Hunter Biden judge agrees to drop old gun count after indictment replaces scuttled plea deal,” by AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst

THE ECONOMY 

Striking United Auto Workers member Chris Jedrzejek, right, and his father picket outside Ford Motor Co.'s Michigan Assembly Plant Monday, Oct. 2, 2023, in Wayne, Mich. | Mike Householder/AP Photo

STRIKE WATCH — The United Auto Workers had another surprise up their sleeves yesterday: The union added Ford’s most important plant — a large Kentucky facility that is the company’s most profitable — to the strike, bolstering their picket lines with 8,700 more workers, The Detroit News’ Jordyn Grzelewski, Breana Noble and Kalea Hall report. Said UAW President SHAWN FAIN in a statement: “We have been crystal clear, and we have waited long enough, but Ford has not gotten the message.”

Related read: “More Americans support striking auto workers than car companies, AP-NORC poll shows” ... “Hollywood Studios Suspend Talks With Actors,” WSJ

More top reads:

• Inflation nation: “U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid higher costs for energy products and food, but underlying inflation pressures at the factory gate continued to abate,” Reuters’ Lucia Mutikani reports.

MEDIAWATCH

BRUTAL DAY AT WAPO —