By Blake Jones, Christopher Cadelago, Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte

Laphonza Butler is seen during a reenactment of her swearing-in ceremony to the Senate in Washington, D.C. on Oct. 3, 2023. | Stephanie Scarbrough/AP

THE BUZZ: Sen. Laphonza Butler has captivated the political class as she weighs a run in 2024. Her decision is expected any day now. But there’s growing chatter over another groundbreaking option with perhaps even higher upsides: A historic run for governor in 2026.

Even if she decides to run for Senate and loses, several top Democrats, including some close to Gov. Gavin Newsom, say they really want Butler to consider the further-off governor’s race.

“Come on,” said one Butler friend from California, talking specifically about a run for governor. “How great would she be?”

The person was granted anonymity to reveal their innermost desires.

Butler is steeped in union connections as a former leader of SEIU California. In its early stages, the governor’s race has been a contest to win the support of labor. The leading Democratic contenders to replace Newsom when he’s term-limited in three years have been eager to show their affinity for the movement.

Left unsaid as they dart from picket line to picket line is that their plodding efforts could suddenly be upended by someone like Butler, who doesn’t merely regurgitate union talking points but lived the life of a front-line organizer.

“In California in particular, labor is a very potent force,” veteran Democratic campaign consultant Garry South said of how candidates are gravitating to union causes. Labor support “means not only money, usually, but it also means troops on the ground. Labor members go door-to-door. They go to rallies, and do all the other things that candidates need when they're running for office.”

There’s no better sign of labor’s sway than the 2026 field. Confirmed and potential candidates for governor including Attorney General Rob Bonta, state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond and state Senate Pro Tem Toni Atkins all rose to power with endorsements and cash from labor heavyweights. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former president of her father’s development firm, has sided with unions on several causes this cycle, including asking Taylor Swift to postpone Los Angeles shows on behalf of striking hotel workers. 

Butler’s team was mum on her future prospects, and people close to her say the conflict in the Middle East will likely impact the timing of any announcement. Other candidates and their advisers declined to speak on the record about Butler, though they have been quietly gaming out her potential involvement in the races. Newsom has promised to stay out of the Senate contest, but he or others in his orbit might be compelled to back Butler for governor given that he rocketed her political career into the stratosphere with his recent appointment.

Speculation about the governor’s race has picked up among insiders and Sacramento operatives, and now it nearly rivals Butler’s more pressing decision about the Senate. California’s sprawling networks of unions frequently play queen and kingmakers in state elections.

Should Butler skip a crowded Senate contest and aim for the state office instead, her history and deep labor connections could scramble the stiff competition for union backing overnight.

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Workers construct new residential housing units in Los Angeles, California. | Getty Images

A YEAR FOR YIMBYS — Pro-housing activists had a blockbuster year in the Legislature, notching some of their biggest wins since the YIMBY (Yes in My Backyard) movement got its start in the Bay Area more than a decade ago.

Newsom cemented those victories Wednesday by signing dozens of housing measures into law. The most significant, Senate Bill 423 by Scott Wiener, expands state rules that streamline housing construction in cities that haven’t met their state-assigned housing goals. It also does away with an exemption for parts of the coastal zone. That could lead to urban areas of the coast looking more like Miami and Fort Lauderdale where high rises proliferate near the sea.

Other major victories for housing groups: Senate Bill 4, also by Wiener, which allows religious groups to more easily build affordable housing on their land; Assembly Bill 1633 by Phil Ting, which limits the ability to challenge projects under the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA; and Assembly Bills 976 and 1033, also by Ting, which make it easier to sell or rent backyard cottages.

Wiener took a victory lap on Wednesday night. “The era of saying no to housing is coming to an end,” he said.

RED INK: San Francisco Mayor London Breed has ordered her department heads to propose at least 3 percent in budget cuts. The mayor’s directive is a stark warning that the city could face tough financial times ahead, especially as its economy struggles to recover from the pandemic. SF officials expect the city could face a deficit of $500 million in the next few years; it has an annual budget of $14.6 billion. (San Francisco Chronicle)

BACK FROM THE BRINK: Silicon Valley Bank is down but not out, apparently. After a dramatic episode in the spring, where hundreds of wealthy tech-entrepreneurs rushed to pull their funds amid concerns of insolvency, the bank is now opening the SVB Experience Center, a 120-seat venue in downtown San Francisco. (San Francisco Chronicle)

TRANSITIONS — Jessica Mackler, the senior vice president of campaigns at EMILYs List, will serve as the group's interim president now that former president Butler has been sworn in as a U.S. Senator. Mackler’s background includes running independent expenditure operations at the DCCC and DGA and campaigns across the country. The EMILYs List Board has formed a search committee for a permanent president, led by board members Yolanda Caraway and Sarah Min.

Susan McEntire is the new vice president of political operations at the California Medical Association. She most recently worked for the Assembly Democratic Caucus, as its political director.

WEDDING WATCH — Jirair Ratevosian, a candidate for Congress in California’s 30th Congressional District to replace Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and a Barbara Lee and State Department alum, and Micheal Ighodaro, co-executive director for the Prevention Access Campaign, got married on Monday at St. Michael’s Church in New York, followed by a reception at Legacy Castle. The two worked together for the Biden-Harris campaign during the 2020 Iowa Caucus. SPOTTED: Jessica Stern and Loyce Pace. Pic

BIRTHDAYS — former Rep. Ed Royce (R-Calif.) … Christopher Kirchhoff … (was Wednesday): Saul Friedländer

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