By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

NEW JMART — “Biden Won’t Directly Address the Age Issue,” by Jonathan Martin: “His own supporters and lawmakers are all but pleading with [President JOE BIDEN] to take the matter seriously, because simply saying ‘watch me,’ as he often retorts when asked about his age, is precisely the problem: people are and it’s still the overriding issue troubling them the most about his candidacy.”

Click through for killer details on the rising tide of concern inside the Democratic ranks about Biden’s age, including what the DCCC heard at recent focus groups and the latest on the primary musings of Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.).

WATCH THIS SPACE — Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) tells Joe Gould and Connor O’Brien that the war in Israel should prompt a “pretty significant reform of the nominations process” with hundreds of military and diplomatic personnel languishing in the Senate.

Few — if any — GOP lawmakers are publicly insisting they won’t ever back Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images

THROWDOWN IN THE HOUSE — In just a few hours, House Republicans will gather to nominate KEVIN McCARTHY’s successor as speaker, and we noticed something curious as we spent all yesterday checking in with allies of the two rivals for the gavel, STEVE SCALISE and JIM JORDAN: Both camps are quite confident that their candidate is ahead and will ultimately win.

That doesn’t mean one side is necessarily lying. Today’s voting will be done by secret ballot, and, as Rep. KELLY ARMSTRONG (R-N.D.) put it to Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke last night, that means two things: “One, people don't have to tell you who they're voting for — and two, they can lie to you about who they're voting for.”

So we’re going to refrain from making any predictions about who is going to prevail. But we will creep out onto a limb with a couple of observations based on our reporting:

— The nomination matters. As we learned in January, when the party vote was followed by 15 rounds on the floor, today’s balloting won’t be the final word on the speakership. But it’s a safe bet that whoever wins the nomination will become the next speaker.

Unlike during McCarthy’s slog for the gavel, few — if any — GOP lawmakers are publicly insisting they won’t ever back Scalise or Jordan. Sure, members might threaten to withhold their support on the floor to win a concession or two. But the lack of hell-no ultimatums suggests we’re in for wheeling and dealing but not deadlock.

That is, if a nominee is chosen today. Before the voting on the nomination even begins, Republicans will decide on an 11th-hour conference rules change that would temporarily raise the threshold for the party nod from a simple majority of the conference to 217 — the number of votes needed to triumph on the floor. So be sure to …

— Watch the rules vote closely. Those supporting the change argue it would be much better for Republicans to duke out their differences behind closed doors rather than on the House floor à la January. Opponents fear that without the pressure of a public floor vote, Republicans could spend weeks in what one GOP aide called a “doom loop” trying to nominate a speaker.

What’s especially interesting is that there is something of a divide between who’s vocally supporting the rule change (mainly Jordan and McCarthy allies) and who’s vocally opposing it — many of whom see the maneuver as an attempt to keep Scalise from quickly rolling up the nomination.

“The fact that there are these shenanigans tells me we’re in a pretty good spot,” said one GOP lawmaker allied with Scalise.

That means there should be some hints to glean from the rule vote. While it’s not a perfect proxy for the speaker’s race, it will be a good sign for Scalise if the proposal goes down, several members told us. On the other hand, if the rule change is adopted, settle in: Winning the support of 217 Republicans could take a while. In fact, the new rule calls for as many as four rounds of voting with intense interrogation sessions between each. And if no one gets to 217 by then, the entire process starts over.

A couple of other critical dynamics to keep an eye on … 

— McCARTHY’S MEDDLING: McCarthy spent the past few days flirting with the idea of running for speaker again, ginning up his allies before backing down yesterday and telling members not to vote for him. Then he gave a full-throated endorsement yesterday to the idea of raising the nomination threshold to 217.

Both moves were seen as swipes at Scalise, and they infuriated the Louisianan’s allies and raised eyebrows even among McCarthy’s own loyalists. For one thing, the ex-speaker’s dalliances with a comeback has complicated Scalise’s effort to woo centrist members who are ideologically distant from Jordan but have long supported McCarthy.

“They are literally trying every dirty trick to fuck with Steve,” one Scalise supporter said. “It’s sad.”

Related read: “McCarthy, Jordan and Scalise’s long history seeps into speaker fight,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane

— SCALISE’S SILENT SUPPORTERS: Jordan allies gladly note that their guy has about twice as many public backers as Scalise. But endorsements are only part of the story, and in this particular situation, they can be misleading.

GOP lawmakers haven’t heard from many constituents telling them to vote for Scalise, we’re told. But they’ve heard from an awful lot of Jordan fans who see him on TV, and DONALD TRUMP’s endorsement certainly didn’t hurt. So, the thinking goes, no wonder that a crop of Scalise backers prefer to keep their heads down. The question is: How many are there?

Less than half the conference has announced an endorsement, but Jordan allies are skeptical there are enough quiet Scalise backers to beat their candidate. “If Steve had people willing to go public, they would be public,” said one such person, who said Jordan has secured “well over 100” votes and that Scalise world is merely “trying to project confidence.”

— THE LATE DECIDERS: With so many undeclared votes, last night’s closed-door candidate forum was more than a mere formality, and there were a few notable moments that might well have moved some votes.

Addressing another approaching shutdown deadline, both Jordan and Scalise acknowledged the House will likely need to pass another continuing resolution given just how contentious the appropriations process has become. But Jordan articulated a more defined strategy that, he said, would force Democrats back to the table on spending.

Both candidates were asked if they’d support the eventual conference nominee on the floor. And while Scalise said emphatically he’d back Jordan, the Ohio Republican was less explicit, we’re told. A Jordan spokesperson quickly issued a statement clarifying that Jordan had answered yes, but some took his response as worrisome for party unity.

And in a question inspired by the shadowy side deals McCarthy made in January to win the gavel, Rep. KAT CAMMACK (R-Fla.) asked what promises each candidate had made to win votes, per CNN’s Mel Zanona. Jordan said his only promise was to “fight for you all,” while some said it was Scalise, this time, who was evasive. His office insisted, however, that Scalise made clear that no one had asked him for anything.

Related read: “'2 percent': House GOP still uncertain either of its speaker hopefuls can win it all,” by Olivia Beavers, Sarah Ferris and Jennifer Scholtes

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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STILL A THING — “Former Ohio State University wrestlers say Jim Jordan betrayed them and shouldn't be House speaker,” by NBC’s Corky Siemaszko: “‘Do you really want a guy in that job who chose not to stand up for his guys?’ said former OSU wrestler MIKE SCHYCK, one of the hundreds of former athletes and students who say they were sexually abused by school doctor RICHARD STRAUSS and have sued the university. ‘Is that the kind of character trait you want for a House speaker?’”

JUST POSTED — Conservative activist LEONARD LEO is the subject of ProPublica’s latest investigation into the justice system and Leo’s outsized influence on the rightward shift of the Supreme Court and beyond: “To trace the arc of Leo’s ascent, from his formative years through the execution of his long-range strategy to his plans for the future, ProPublica drew on interviews with more than 100 people who know Leo, worked with him, got funding from him or studied his rise.” Read the full story from Andy Kroll, Andrea Bernstein and Ilya Marritz

GOOD TO KNOW — New AP-NORC poll: “Only one-quarter of Republicans say they approve of the stunning decision by a small group of House Republicans to remove [McCarthy] from his post. … Three in 10 Republicans believe it was a mistake for a small faction of the party, and all Democrats, to support a motion ejecting McCarthy from the speakership.”

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On the Hill

The House will meet at 3 p.m. The Senate is out.

3 things to watch …

1. Look for a new push for a congressional response to Hamas’ attack on Israel today following a morning briefing for House members from senior Biden administration officials. It could be weeks before the White House makes a formal funding request, but some lawmakers are already front-running the ask with a proposed $2 billion supplemental.
   
2. This crisis has prompted an early end to the bipartisan Senate codel led by Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, which will return to the U.S. after meeting today with South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL. Schumer is expected back in New York tomorrow, where he will meet with community leaders, observe Shabbat and spend time with family this weekend before returning to D.C. next week.
   
3. The debate over the emergency powers granted to Acting Speaker Pro Tempore PATRICK McHENRY could come to a head as the House gavels back in today. A bipartisan pro-Israel resolution is nearing 400 cosponsors, and McHenry told our Anthony Adragna yesterday, "If we need to act as a government, we will.”

At the White House

Biden will deliver remarks on the administration’s efforts to address hidden junk fees at 11:45 a.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS is scheduled to deliver remarks at the College of Charleston. More from the Post and Courier

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

President Joe Biden speaks in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, about the war between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas, Oct. 10, 2023. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

THE LATEST ON ISRAEL — Biden yesterday condemned Hamas’ attack on Israel as “pure unadulterated evil,” in remarks delivered at the White House. “Biden bristled with indignation during his 10-minute address at the White House, appearing as angry as he ever has in public since becoming president,” NYT’s Patrick Kingsley and Isabel Kershner write.

Biden also confirmed that U.S. citizens are among the hostages taken by Hamas and updated the death toll of Americans to 14, with 20 more remaining unaccounted for, AP’s Aamer Madhani, Tara Copp and Darlene Superville write.

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is planning to visit Israel on Thursday, the State Department noticed yesterday, in an effort to show continued U.S. support, Eric Bazail-Eimil writes.

The Defense Department may soon send a second aircraft carrier in the eastern Mediterranean, our colleague Lara Seligman reports, “a move that would mark a major escalation in U.S. military power in the region.”

On the ground: “Israel has pounded Gaza with airstrikes for four days, killing more than 900 people, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. Residents bracing for a ground assault say they have nowhere to go,” WaPo’s Sarah Dadouch writes.

More top reads:

• The gruesome details: “Scenes from a massacre: Inside an Israeli town destroyed by Hamas,” by WaPo’s Steve Hendrix
• The road ahead: “Israel Sought to Contain Hamas for Years. Now It Faces a Potentially Costly Fight to Eliminate It,” by WSJ’s Dov Lieber in Tel Aviv
• How we got here: “How Israel’s Feared Security Services Failed to Stop Hamas’s Attack,” by NYT’s Ronen Bergman and Patrick Kingsley
• Hot on the right: “DeSantis floats Florida-based sanctions against Iran,” by Kimberly Leonard in Miami
• What’s happening online: “Inside X’s Community Notes, fact checks on known misinformation are delayed for days,” by NBC’s Ben Goggin

ALL POLITICS

Republican candidate Kari Lake waves to supporters as she announces her plans to run for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat during a rally, Oct. 10, 2023, in Scottsdale, Ariz. | Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo

THE LAKE SHOW — KARI LAKE formally launched her Arizona Senate bid yesterday, with a campaign kickoff event that “bore little resemblance to the fire and brimstone candidacy that marked her gubernatorial bid two years ago,” our colleague Ally Mutnick writes from Scottsdale, Ariz.

“Appearing in an airplane hangar in 94-degree heat, the former TV anchor devoted much of her address to lamenting rising inflation, gas prices and the border crisis. The script suggested a candidate keenly invested in trying to tweak her image. It contained just one passing reference to the election fraud claims that she has harped on so much that they came to politically define her.”

But, but, but: “Some of the old Lake was still on display, instructing the crowd to jeer at the ‘fake news fools’ toward the back of the hangar where media outlets gathered. She embraced her well-earned reputation as a Trump acolyte and the former president himself chimed in on video to offer her his endorsement.”

More top reads:

• Thanks to the indictment of Sen. BOB MENENDEZ and other factors, New Jersey Republicans see a rare chance to score key upsets that could deliver the party control of one or both houses of the state Legislature, Matt Friedman reports.
• Six states voted last year on abortion referendums and in all six, the anti-abortion side lost. Will Ohio be different? With early voting beginning tomorrow, Alice Miranda Ollstein reports from Columbus on how the anti-abortion movement is doing everything it can to ensure November’s referendum doesn’t harden the narrative that abortion restrictions are a losing issue.
• FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The Next 50 is rolling out its fall 2023 endorsement class: Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), Nebraska state Sen. Tony Vargas, Will Rollins, Illinois Assemblymember Nabeela Syed, North Carolina state Rep. Diamond Staton-Williams, Oklahoma state Rep. Ajay Pittman, Michael Feggans, Joe Saunders and Julia Marvin.
• “Mitt Romney urges his donors to coalesce behind one challenger to Trump,” by WaPo’s Maeve Reston in Park City, Utah

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2024 WATCH

DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — Despite his previous hesitance to outright critique his chief rival, RON DeSANTIS recently has “started attacking former President Donald J. Trump more directly, drawing laughter and applause from his audiences,” writes NYT’s Nicholas Nehamas.

GREAT SCOTT — TIM SCOTT yesterday blasted DeSantis and VIVEK RAMASWAMY over foreign policy positions that he said project American weakness amid the attack on Israel, Andrew Zhang writes. “American courage and American values are not in decline,” Scott said, as he endorsed a whole-of-government response to supporting Israel.

CONGRESS

THE SANTOS CLAUSE — Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) is facing 10 new federal charges after a federal judge in Brooklyn yesterday unveiled an updated indictment against the already-embattled congressman, bringing the total number of charges he faces to 23, our colleague Erica Orden reports from New York.

The details: “The new charges in the so-called superseding indictment are: one count of conspiracy to commit offenses against the United States, two counts of wire fraud, two counts of making materially false statements to the Federal Election Commission, two counts of falsifying records submitted to obstruct the FEC, two counts of aggravated identity theft and one count of access device fraud.” Read the indictment

TRUMP CARDS

Special counsel Jack Smith arrives to speak to reporters, June 9, 2023, in Washington. | Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo

PRIVILEGE PROBE — Special counsel JACK SMITH said in a filing yesterday that 25 witnesses in Trump’s D.C.-based criminal case — including a family member — withheld information from his team by citing attorney-client privilege, our colleague Kyle Cheney reports. “But Smith’s team says Trump himself may end up invalidating many of those claims if he chooses to argue during trial that his actions in 2020 were based on the advice of his lawyers. If he does, prosecutors say, they have a right to probe any privileged communications related to that defense.”

Smith also urged the federal judge presiding over the election-subversion case to implement measures aimed at protecting the confidentiality and safety of potential jurors, Kyle and Josh Gerstein write.

More top reads: 

• ALEX JONES intends to resist efforts by Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS to compel him to testify in the Georgia trial of KENNETH CHESEBRO and SIDNEY POWELL later this month, Kyle Cheney writes.
• In the Trump civil case in New York, former Trump Organization CFO ALLEN WEISSELBERG “took the witness stand Tuesday and said under questioning that the real-estate empire’s financial statements inflated the value and size of some assets,” WSJ’s Erin Mulvaney writes.

MEDIAWATCH

OOF — “Washington Post will offer buyouts to cut staff by 240,” by WaPo’s Will Sommer and Elahe Izadi: “In an email to staff, interim CEO PATTY STONESIFER wrote that The Post’s subscription, traffic and advertising projections over the past two years had been ‘overly optimistic.’ … The Post currently employs about 2,500 people across the entire company. A staff meeting is planned for 10 a.m. Wednesday to discuss the buyouts.”

Dick Durbin has a new left knee.

Nick Offerman is getting involved with the Farm Bill.

George and Mari Will had a lot to talk about this week.

SPOTTED: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Gisele Fetterman in Midtown Manhattan yesterday making a stop at Traditas Pizza. Pic

IN MEMORIAM — “Kevin Phillips, 82, Dies; Political Analyst Predicted G.O.P. Resurgence,” by NYT’s Sam Roberts: “Phillips was in his late 20s when he published his first book, ‘The Emerging Republican Majority’ (1969), which, refining earlier studies he had done, predicted a rightward realignment in national politics driven by ethnic and racial divisions and white discontent. With that book, he emerged as an influential, if controversial, conservative theoretician.”