By Matt Friedman

Presented by Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital

Good Wednesday morning!

In most if not all state elections, Republican leaders pay lip service to the idea that they can take one or both of the state legislative chambers. Of course they’re saying it again this year.

But now it’s more than lip service. For the first time since at least 2013, it looks like an actual possibility, albeit an outside one.

I could be saying this out of 2021 shock, when Republicans did way better than anyone expected them to do. But there are a lot of factors that suggest that the GOP taking the Legislature isn't unrealistic. To name a few: Driving the political message all summer, whether it was with windmills, whales, sex ed, trans kids, electric cars, gas stoves. There were varying degrees of hyperbole with the messages, some of which were more accurate than others, but Democratic leaders responded pretty meekly. They didn't defend the left-leaning stances on those issues, but joined the in a less full-on way by sending letters of concern to the State Board of Education and the Board of Public Utilities. Republicans, still very outnumbered in New Jersey, have nevertheless been outpacing Democrats in voter registration. And there is, of course, the map. It’s the first time in more than 20 years that Republicans are running in legislative districts that weren’t drawn exclusively by Democrats.

I brought up 2013 because that was the last time we were seriously asking this question. That was because Chris Christie was still a very popular governor and we were all wondering if he had coattails. That seems naive now, since his coat had no tails, and most political insiders here will tell you Christie didn't even want them.

But while it seems probable that Republicans will gain some seats, it’s still unlikely they can take control of a house. For one, Democrats are keen to point out that 2021 is not 2023. That was a Republican wave year no one saw coming. And then 2022 happened, and there was no subsequent wave. Republicans would need to win almost every competitive district this time to get a majority in either house. And Democrats have been building their vote-by-mail advantage with Republicans just starting to make a big effort to catch up. Look at these numbers. A big question is whether abortion will be as potent issue for New Jersey Democrats as it has been in states where abortion rights are at far greater risk..

Read my story about it here. 

TIPS? FEEDBACK? Email me at [email protected].

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I don’t have to answer to you people ... I will tell the people of New Jersey when I’m ready.” — Indicted U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) to POLITICO 

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Jose Arango, James Devine, Ward Sanders, Patricia Teffenhart, David Wolfe

WHERE’S MURPHY? In Trenton for an 11:30 a.m. announcement that includes Planned Parenthood. Media: “Ask Governor Murphy” at 7 p.m. on your local NPR affiliate

A message from Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital:

We at Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital are deeply disappointed with United Steel Workers 4-200's extreme action to strike. No one benefits from the strike, least of all our nurses. The union should consider the impact it is having on them and their families. Multiple attempts to prevent the strike were rejected, including accepting the union's demands and offering arbitration. RWJUH is already among the highest-staffed hospitals in the state, and our nurses are currently the highest-paid in New Jersey.

NEW SEX ED STANDARDS TO TEACH PARENTS HOW TO IMPROVE SCHOOL FUNDING — “New Jersey public schools are losing students. Why? And where are they going?” by The Asbury Park Press’ Amanda Oglesby: “Fewer and fewer children are attending public schools in New Jersey. Across the Garden State, public School enrollment dropped by nearly 36,000 students between 2012-13 and 2022-23, according to analysis by the Asbury Park Press. The drops are causing budget strains in many places as state funding, tied to enrollment, is slashed, education officials said. The Press analyzed 10 years of Department of Education enrollment data. The data show that in Monmouth County, enrollment dropped by 9.7% between the 2012-2013 school year and 2022-2023. In Ocean County, it dropped by 10.8%. All told, public schools enrolled 18,000 fewer students in Monmouth and Ocean Counties. … Part of the explanation comes from a slowdown in the birthrate across the nation. Like the country, New Jersey's birth rates have fallen since a peak in 2007, said James Hughes, dean emeritus of Rutgers University's Edward J. Bloustein School. … Millennials, the cohort currently between 27 and 42 years old, are not having as many children as previous generations, Hughes said.”

—“​​Homeschooling numbers still high in N.J. after booming during COVID” 

CORRECTIONS — “New Jersey jails are still putting young prisoners in solitary confinement, failing to follow ‘historic’ 2019 law,” by The Jersey Vindicator’s Jonah Walters: “In 2019, the advocates for reform were finally victorious when the New Jersey Senate and Assembly passed the Isolated Confinement Restriction Act. Under the law, isolated confinement is not supposed to be used against vulnerable populations or for extended time periods. … But in reality, not much has changed in the state’s jails. Over the past several months, The Jersey Vindicator reviewed all quarterly reports submitted by county jail facilities since the Isolated Confinement Restriction Act took effect in 2020. Our review uncovered some troubling patterns. For one thing, a majority of New Jersey counties have apparently failed to report adequate information to the state Department of Corrections, as required by the law. Four counties have so far failed to self-report any information at all. What’s worse, the reports that are available reveal that nearly every jail in the state routinely puts young prisoners in isolated confinement, in potential violation of the law’s provisions meant to protect members of vulnerable populations.”

—“N.J. banned solitary confinement, but hundreds of prisoners are still isolated, watchdog says,” by NJ Advance Medai’s S.P. Sullivan: “[A] new report by the state Office of the Corrections Ombudsperson, an independent oversight office, found evidence New Jersey’s prison system is shirking those requirements, sending prisoners to “restorative housing units” for months at a time and failing to regularly let them out of their cells. ‘There are a lot of cries for help’ from prisoners and families of those locked away in New Jersey’s isolation units, also known as RHUs, Ombudsman Terry Schuster told NJ Advance Media.”

—“Dark money group tied to South Jersey Dems on TV tying GOP candidates to Durr” 

—“Over 100 bears killed in the first day of New Jersey's hunt” 

—Snowflack: “Whither witherest Bergen” 

A message from Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital:

TRADING GOLD BARBS — Menendez’s Republican challenger pokes fun at his indictment with new PAC, by POLITICO’s Daniel Han: A Republican running for U.S. Senate in New Jersey is looking to raise cash with a tongue-in-cheek dig at Sen. Bob Menendez’s federal indictment. A new leadership PAC named “GOLD BAR PAC” — connected to Christine Serrano Glassner, a New Jersey mayor with ties to former President Donald Trump — was recently filed with the Federal Election Commission. The PAC’s name is presumably a reference to the Menendez indictment, which says the FBI found gold bars at Menendez’s Englewood Cliffs home during a search in 2022. … The PAC’s name underscores how Republicans are eager to highlight Menendez’s alleged corruption in the run up to the 2024 Senate race in New Jersey, even as Glassner and national Republicans have been hesitantto call for Menendez’s resignation.

DEAD MAN RUNNING — Dems’ bad dream: Menendez taunts party with potential reelect, by POLITICO’s Ursula Perano and Burgess Everett: Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) is torturing Democrats trying to hold the Senate as he openly weighs a reelection bid. So far, though, most in the party are doing little about it other than cross their fingers and hope he goes away. .... Interviews with more than a dozen Senate Democrats, many of whom have called on Menendez to step down, revealed few willing to commit support for a primary challenger — or to condemn Menendez for weighing a 2024 bid. Some Democrats didn’t comment at all. The relative silence on Menendez suggests that Democrats, despite the fallout caused by the New Jersey senator’s indictment, don’t see the merit in duking it out with their longtime colleague. While the cascade of resignation calls against former Sen. Al Franken over sexual misconduct allegations prompted him to announce his resignation in 2017, Menendez has made it clear it’ll take more of a fight to push him out. With the House gripped by Republican chaos, Democratic senators want to keep drama in their own chamber to a minimum. … One Democratic senator, granted anonymity to speak freely on the matter, predicted that both the campaign arm and Schumer would “cut him loose” if Menendez chose to run for reelection. “There is something like a 0 percent chance he would be able to get the nomination,” this senator said. “He’s a dead man walking, politically.”

FIND OUT AT HIS NEXT TOWN HALL MEETING — “Which unsavory GOP candidate for Speaker of the House will Tom Kean Jr. pick?” by The Record’s Charles Stile: “Another tough day at the office looms for Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr., the Westfield Republican of New Jersey's 7th Congressional District. He is scheduled to join his 224 other House Republicans Wednesday to select a new replacement for the recently dethroned Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California. Kean is staring at a menu of unsavory options — unsavory, that is, for a New Jersey Republican who representing a large swath of affluent, traditionally socially moderate suburbs in Union and Somerset counties. Vying for the job is the MAGA-firebreather Rep. Jim Jordan of Indiana, a "Stop the Steal" zealot who collaborated with then-President Donald Trump's aides to subvert the certification of the 2020 election. His chief rival is the House Majority Whip, Rep. Steve Scalise, the so-called 'David Duke without the baggage' veteran from Louisiana and another who opposed the Jan. 6, 2021 certification of President Biden's election. And then there is McCarthy himself.”

A message from Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital:

We at Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital are deeply disappointed with United Steel Workers 4-200's extreme action to strike. No one benefits from the strike, least of all our nurses. The union should consider the impact it is having on them and their families. Multiple attempts to prevent the strike were rejected, including accepting the union's demands and offering arbitration. RWJUH is already among the highest-staffed hospitals in the state, and our nurses are currently the highest-paid in New Jersey. Our top priority is our patients. We remain steadfast in our commitment to delivering the highest-quality care in the safest environment. We want to reassure our patients, their families, and our community that we continue to care without interruption. We remain fully open and continue to deliver the high-quality care they deserve.

A RINGING ENDORSEMENT: ‘NOT ADVOCATING FOR THE ABSOLUTE DESTRUCTION OF ALL INSTITUTIONS OF GOVERNMENT’ “Chris Smith for speaker,” by Matt Hale for InsiderNJ: “So why not Chris Smith? He has been there a long time and therefore he at least knows how the place works. He also presumably remembers how it worked better in the past. If he cuts a deal with Democrats, it will probably help his re-election chances in the 4th district. Sure, he occasionally goes off the rails, but who among us doesn’t? But more than anything Smith is certainly not advocating for the absolute destruction of all institutions of government. His life’s work fighting against human trafficking and his leadership on public health issues ranging from STEM cell research to AIDS education show that he recognizes the need for governments around the world to be involved in solving global problems. That must mean something, doesn’t it?”

BATTERING RAHMS —“N.J. man who went to Capitol with father on Jan. 6 pleads guilty,” by Kevin Shea for NJ.com: “An Atlantic City man who traveled to Washington, D.C. with his father to see the former president speak on Jan. 6, 2021 pleaded guilty Tuesday to being disorderly or disruptive during the ensuing rioting at the U.S. Capitol, court records say. James Rahm III, known in his family as JD Rahm, is scheduled to be sentenced in January, in federal court in Washington, D.C. Rahm III and his father, James Rahm Jr., of Philadelphia, were separately charged in early 2021 with five criminal counts for their presence at the rioting. The elder Rahm, who is known as Doug Rahm, opted for a bench trial before a federal judge in Washington, who found him guilty of all charges, one a felony, in October 2022. The judge sentenced him in January to a year in prison, but he’s been allowed to remain free while lawyers appeal his case. The appeal is ongoing. The younger Rahm took a plea bargain in August, and made it official Tuesday, records show. He’d also been indicted on five crimes.”

GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

QUE SERA, SERA — “'It won't go in a bad direction': Sayreville hires auditor to probe borough finances,” by MyCentralJersey’s Susan Loyer: “Prompted by corruption charges filed against former Sayreville Democratic Chairman Thomas Pollando, the Borough Council has hired a forensic accountant to perform a comprehensive review of the Sayreville Economic and Redevelopment Agency (SERA), but it may not be the only organization under scrutiny. The Council appointed Mercadien of Princeton to review the activities of SERA for a 10-year period from 2012 to 2022 for a fee not to exceed $25,000. The investigation may also extend to other municipal boards where Pollando had dealings, including recreation, where he served as president of the Sayreville Athletic Association, Mayor Victoria Kilpatrick said.”

NORTH JERSEY SCHOOL BOARD RACES FREE OF POLITICS — “Politics enter South Jersey school board races,” by The Press of Atlantic City’s Bill Barlow: “[Moms For Liberty endorsements] included three of the four successful candidates in Ocean City last year, including Robin Shaffer, the successful candidate for the remaining year of an unexpired term on the board, in a campaign that focused on state sex education standards that took effect last year. Shaffer is back on the ballot this year and again running as part of a ticket under the slogan “Conservative family values,” along with Steve Flogaus and Kevin Schaffer, who is no relation. People on every side of the issues say school board elections have been growing more political, and board meetings more contentious, with fights over national policies and hot-button cultural questions playing out amid votes on contracts and policies and quotidian matters of school business.”

A BANNER YEAR — “State education group considers taking stand against book banning in public schools,” by The Record’s Nicholas Katzban: “Education officials from Essex County voted by an overwhelming majority to recommend that the New Jersey School Boards Association adopt an official position against banning certain books from public schools. The 14-3 decision rendered by the Essex County School Boards Association on Sept. 27 was put to a vote ahead of the national Banned Books Week at the start of October, said a statement released by the ECSBA last week. … On Friday, [ECSBA President Reginald] Bledsoe was unable to name specific parents or groups advocating for book bans in any Essex County school district. But a few miles to the west, Morris County's Roxbury Township has become a local epicenter for the national discussion over what themes should be accessible to students at the high school library”

—“A year ago, Hackensack's police director vowed to reform the troubled department. Did he?” 

—“'Don't want to back off': Wayne first aid squad hesitant to give way to privatization” 

—“The Empire strikes back? New operator inks lease for long-closed Secaucus hotel” 

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.

SHE GRIMACED FROM THE PAIN — “N.J. woman suffered second-degree burns in hot coffee spill at McDonald’s, lawsuit says,” by by NJ ADvance Media’s Anthony G. Attrino: “Karen Azucena Amaya, 34, claims in court papers she suffered second-degree burns to her thigh while picking up coffee and food on Sept. 25, 2021, at the store in the 3000 block of John F. Kennedy Boulevard in Union City. … As a result of McDonald’s alleged negligence, Amaya suffered scarring and ‘injuries, both of body and mind,’ the lawsuit states. … The lawsuit was filed 11 days after an 85-year-old woman sued a McDonald’s in San Francisco, claiming the lid on her cup wasn’t fastened properly and she was burned when the coffee spilled in her car. In 1992, a woman in Albuquerque, New Mexico, successfully sued a McDonald’s franchise when she was burned in a coffee spill. In that lawsuit, the woman’s attorneys successfully argued that McDonald’s served its coffee up to 30 degrees hotter than other restaurants'."

—“Springsteen gives health update on ‘monster’ ulcer disease that postponed tour” 

—“NJ 'Chopped' chef faces another lawsuit, claim of sexual abuse” 

—“With rise in COVID-19 cases, three Hudson hospitals reinstate mask mandate” 

—“Event planned for B.L. England landmark before implosion” 

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