By Nick Reisman, Emily Ngo and Jeff Coltin

With help from Jason Beeferman

In the unlikely event that Rep. Hakeem Jeffries becomes speaker of the House, it would create a political reality similar to the Independent Democratic Conference's seven-year majority in Albany. | AP Photo/Mike Groll

Close margins in legislative bodies can equal chaos. Just ask the New York State Senate.

In the wake of Kevin McCarthy’s defenestration from the speakership last week, House Democrats have publicly tried to encourage a handful of Republicans to support Brooklyn Rep. Hakeem Jeffries for speaker ahead of today’s scheduled vote.

In the unlikely event that happens, the move would replicate the political reality in the state Senate during a seven-year stretch that ended in 2018 in which a breakaway faction of Democrats formed a working majority with Republicans.

To make it happen in the House, seven or eight Republicans would need to side with Democrats to make Jeffries speaker.

But such bipartisan arrangements can have a shelf life. The Independent Democratic Conference, after all, isn’t around anymore after they almost all met their demise at the polls from angry Democrats over their alliance with Republicans.

Former IDC lawmakers — all of whom are now out of elected office — don't think a similar coalition can be replicated in the House, or anywhere else for that matter, during an era of harder-edged partisanship.

“That ship has sailed. They’re not afraid of pivotal elections in November,” former state Sen. Diane Savino said of current lawmakers. “They’re afraid of primaries.”

The IDC disbanded under pressure from Democrats to win back full control of the state Senate in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election to the presidency and as then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo was facing a Democratic primary of his own.

All members of the Independent Democratic Conference, save for Savino, lost Democratic primaries later that year.

Similar repercussions could be in store for Republicans who try to work with Democrats in the House, former IDC’er David Carlucci said.

“It would be political suicide for any Republican that did that,” he told Playbook. “Ten years ago you might have been able to survive a primary with middle ground and compromise and doing what’s best for your district. But I believe the primary voter on the left and right today would just not allow that.”

House Democrats are nevertheless making coalition building part of their talking points, with Jeffries’ office publicly encouraging Republicans to support him. After all, Jeffries knows all about the IDC: He was a state Assembly member during its first two years.

In Washington, however, Republicans aren’t taking Jeffries up on it.

Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents what’s expected to be a hotly contested House seat in the Hudson Valley, flatly ruled out the idea in an interview with Playbook.

Instead, Republicans like him want a speaker who can bring to the table what McCarthy offered lawmakers in pivotal districts.

“The next speaker is going to have to be able to achieve many of the goals that Kevin had in terms of a political operation, fundraising ability and doing press,” Lawler, a former assemblymember, told Playbook. “It’s a lot of work.”

Power sharing also comes with trade-offs. In coalitions, rump caucus lawmakers typically demand committee leadership posts and the ability to bring favored legislation to the floor.

Governing with a small majority, suffice to say, isn’t easy.

Like in the House today, action in the state Senate of yesteryear could grind to a halt because of one or two disgruntled lawmakers.

“When you have a narrow majority,” Savino added, “every member is an extortionist.” — Nick Reisman

IT’S WEDNESDAY. Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.

WHERE’S KATHY? Speaking at the Triangle Fire Memorial Dedication NYU Brown Building, making an announcement with Attorney General Tish James at the United Federation of Teachers headquarters and speaking at the Westchester Business Council’s Annual Dinner.

WHERE’S ERIC? Calling into 77 WABC’s “Sid & Friends in the Morning,” making a sanitation-related announcement, speaking at the FDNY Memorial Day Ceremony and hosting a reception for faith leaders.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Yes, we’re called upon to pray for peace. But justice first. There must be justice for the slaughter of babies and children and grandmothers and families torn apart by the horror.” — Gov. Kathy Hochul at a “New York Stands with Israel” rally in Manhattan.

GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

The New York chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America apologized for the "confusion" caused by a post which endorsed a pro-Palestinian rally in Times Square on Sunday. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images

DSA DISTANCING: The city chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America softened its tone Tuesday after its promotion of the Sunday rally in Times Square that was widely condemned, including by DSA-endorsed officials.

“We understand why many, including our allies, were shocked by the timing and the tone of this message in a moment of profound fear and grief,” the group wrote in a statement. “We are sorry for the confusion our post caused and for not making our values explicit.”

But it also called for a ceasefire and “the end of the 75-year Nakba that includes the occupation of the West Bank, the end of the 16-year siege on the open-air prison that is the Gaza Strip and the end of U.S. military aid for occupation and apartheid.”

The hundreds who gathered at the pro-Palestine rally included those who chanted “resistance is justified when people are occupied” and cheered the bloodshed by Hamas.

While Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez knocked the “bigotry and callousness” of the rally in a statement Monday to Playbook, others affiliated with the DSA made it clear Tuesday that they, too, don’t want anything to do with the gathering.

Rep. Jamaal Bowman said in a statement that he was “shocked and disgusted.”

“We were disturbed to hear reports of statements from individuals who attended which minimized or justified civilian deaths,” wrote state Sen. Julia Salazar and state Assemblymember Emily Gallagher in a joint statement. — Emily Ngo

New York City Mayor Eric Adams and Zhan "Johnny" Petrosyants, far right, attend the Haute Living Jeffrey Wright Cover Event in 2022. Petrosyants was spotted at the same hotel as Adams during the mayor's visit to Mexico. | Eugene Gologursky/Getty Images for Haute Living

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? Mayor Eric Adams suggested Tuesday it was a coincidence that a close friend was at the same Mexico City hotel where Adams and a retinue of advisers kicked off a four-day tour through Latin America last week.

Adams was in the country’s capital to participate in a business conference at a Hilton hotel where he and his team stayed — and where POLITICO spotted Zhan Petrosyants, a longtime friend who goes by Johnny.

“He just happened to be there, and when I saw him I said: ‘It’s great to see you, nice to see you,’” Adams said during an unrelated press briefing Tuesday. “He wasn’t part of our trip. He was there on his own business. He’s a businessman.”

Petrosyants and his brother Robert are involved in several culinary ventures — including the mayor’s Midtown haunt, Osteria la Baia — that have run afoul of tax authorities. They have also frequently been seen with the mayor at nightlife spots around New York City.

City Hall previously told POLITICO that Petrosyants didn't benefit from any taxpayer funded service while on the trip. Adams went a step further.

“I had no idea he was coming,” the mayor said. “No idea he was there until I saw him.” — Joe Anuta

More from the city:

— Two police officers who fatally shot Kawaski Trawick in his home should not be punished, a draft decision showed. (The New York Times)

— Adams scoffed at an early push from progressive Democrats to challenge him in the 2025 election. (Daily News)

— The mayor admitted his Latin American trip may not have convinced migrants to stop coming to New York. (New York Post)

New York and the Seneca Nation of Indians are in ongoing negotiations for a revised Gaming compact. | Jessica Kourkounis/Getty Images

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Gambling interests and a labor union are set to unveil a coalition on Wednesday to present a united front in the ongoing negotiations between New York and the Seneca Nation of Indians for a revised gaming compact.

The formation of the coalition is the latest indication of the concerns that the outcome of the gaming compact’s negotiations could have on the gaming industry and its jobs in the Finger Lakes and Western New York regions.

Coalition members include del Lago Resort & Casino, Finger Lakes Gaming & Racetrack, Hamburg Gaming and Batavia Downs Gaming as well as concessions company Delaware North and the Rochester Regional Joint Board/Workers United.

Members of the coalition want elements of the current gaming compact preserved, pointing to the thousands of jobs that have been created under the current agreement.

“A truly fair Seneca gaming compact will recognize the importance of these contributions and enable us to continue to grow and support the community for years to come,” Lance Young, the vice president and general manager at del Lago Resort & Casino in the Finger Lakes, said in a statement to Playbook.

The state Assembly earlier this year balked at giving Hochul’s office the green light to move ahead with the compact negotiations over concerns raised by organized labor after the Seneca Nation was considering a casino in downtown Rochester.

A casino at that location could potentially compete with other existing gaming halls in the region.

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie told reporters in August lawmakers were not expected to return to Albany before the year ends to finalize the compact, which can be extended into early 2024. — Nick Reisman

ETHICS UPDATE: New York still has a cop on the ethics beat — at least for now. The Commission on Ethics and Lobbying in Government received an expected stay Tuesday, letting it continue to operate as ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s lawsuit challenging its existence continues to work its way through the courts.

Cuomo won in a lower-level court last month. An Albany judge determined the enforcement entity created by Hochul in 2022, which made investigating Cuomo’s $5 million book deal one of its first orders of business, was illegally constructed.

Tuesday’s stay means it can carry on with its business, such as posting lobbying disclosure reports and conducting ethics training sessions for state workers until a mid-level appellate court considers the case in its February term. But it won’t be able to continue probing Cuomo until the legal battles conclude. — Bill Mahoney

More from Albany:

— The U.S. Supreme Court has denied a new challenge to the Concealed Carry Improvement Act, meaning the state can keep doing background checks on ammo purchases. (Spectrum News)

— State regulators are considering requests for higher subsidies for developers of wind farms. (Newsday)

— Hochul has stepped up security around potentially vulnerable sites following the attack on Israel. (North Country Public Radio)

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.

Rep. Pat Ryan raised over a half-million dollars in the most recent fundraising quarter. | Hans Pennink/AP Photo

WHAT RYAN RAISED: Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan raised more than $600,000 in the most recent fundraising quarter for his second-term reelection, a person familiar with the results told Playbook.

He has raised more than $2.4 million so far this year.

Ryan’s haul makes him one of the top fundraising Democratic lawmakers representing a crucial swing district for both parties.

New York is home to an estimated six swing seats, and Ryan’s district is the one in which Republicans are making a clear play to flip.

Elected last year to a Hudson Valley seat, Ryan on Tuesday gained a Republican challenge from former NYPD officer Alison Esposito who just moved back to the district from Manhattan. — Nick Reisman

Also from Congress:

— As House Republicans potentially pick between Reps. Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan for speaker later today, progressive organizations are urging New York’s GOP delegation to choose neither.

— Rep. George Santos’ legal troubles just got worse … just as Tom Suozzi, who used to hold the seat, entered the race.

— Former Democratic City Council candidate Wai Yee Chan said she’s voting for Republican Ying Tan — and even donated to her campaign after an ugly primary against Susan Zhuang (City & State)

— A Bronx construction company was cited with four safety violations after two of its workers died after being crushed by a concrete slab at Kennedy Airport. (The New York Times)

— Two Nassau County Democrats are accusing North Hempstead Town Supervisor Jennifer DeSena of illegally hiring a hearing officer who ruled favorably over her top deputy in a harassment case. (Newsday)

MEDIAWATCH — “Biden-loving New York Times security guard falls on hard times,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman: “She helped nominate him for president in 2020. Since then, she said his performance in office has been ‘kind of up and down.’”

— City & State New York has hired Austin Jefferson as associate state politics reporter based in Albany. He had covered the Hudson Valley at the Daily Freeman

OUT & ABOUT: The New York Immigration Coalition held its This is New York 2023 gala Tuesday night at Capitale on the Bowery. “We’re being told New York isn’t a welcoming place for immigrants despite a legacy that tells us otherwise,” NYIC Executive Director Murad Awawdeh said. “NYIC is going to make sure everyone recognizes that we are vital.“ The night’s host more directly evoked the mayor's comments on migrants, joking that “Our hearts are endless but our resources are not,” so people need to donate.

SPOTTED: Comptroller Brad Lander, City Councilmembers Shekar Krishnan, Alexa Avilés, and Shahana Hanif, state Sen. Brian Kavanagh, Assemblymembers Catalina Cruz, Grace Lee, Jessica González Rojas, Marcela Mitaynes, Tony Simone, Manny De Los Santos and Yudelka Tapia, Rafael Espinal, Trip Yang, Jeremy John, Bhairavi Desai, Wayne Ho, Bertha Lewis, Yesenia Mata and DC 37’s Henry Garrido.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: WSJ’s Tarini Parti … Jamie Weinstein

WAS TUESDAY: Matti Friedman ... Avi Davidoff … Jesica Severson

— A midtown development was sold for $95 million less than it was originally bought for in 2017. (The Real Deal)

— An estimated $20 million will be spent to revitalize a nine-story abandoned Rochester hotel, saving it from demolition. (Democrat & Chronicle)

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