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Supreme Court subplots

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Tax examines the latest news in tax politics and Policy.
Oct 10, 2023 View in browser
 

By Bernie Becker

QUICK FIX

WELL, WHAT DO YOU KNOW? There are an awful lot of subplots underneath what, for lots of people out there, will just be a boring old tax case the Supreme Court decides this term. (Not boring for us, of course!)

Pro Tax’s Brian Faler took a look at more than a couple of those issues swimming beneath the surface on Moore vs. United States, in which a Washington state couple is challenging a one-time repatriation tax on offshore earnings in the 2017 GOP tax law.

One of those things to watch has gotten a bit more attention — the question of why the Court and its conservative majority decided to take this case, and how much it has to do with potentially wanting to make a preemptive strike against a wealth tax. (For instance, there is no disagreement among the appellate courts on this matter, though a ruling from a liberal circuit did raise some eyebrows.)

MORE ON THIS IN A BIT, but first welcome back to a post-holiday version of Weekly Tax, where we’re still catching up on the little flurry of tax-related news out of Florida late last week.

Makes for quite the date night: Today marks 67 years since the release of the movie “Giant,” an epic Western clocking in at more than three hours — and probably best known as the final film role of James Dean.

We really like giant scoops, but certainly accept smaller ones as well.

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You can also reach us on Twitter at @berniebecker3, @tobyeckert, @brian_faler, @ben_guggenheim, @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Tax.

Driving the day

MOORE IN THE WEEDS: But some of the other issues facing the justices, or the possible ramifications of their decisions, do get down into the nitty-gritty of tax policy.

Among them: Charles and Kathleen Moore are challenging their $15,000 tax bill on a stake in an Indian business, because they and their lawyers argue that their earnings were unrealized — making the tax on them unconstitutional.

But according to at least some experts, that argument doesn’t even make it to first base. The Moores might not have gotten any money in their pocket from that investment in the Indian firm, those experts say, but that income was certainly realized by the company itself — meaning the justices could essentially sidestep the case right there.

As for the potential ramifications: If the justices do back the Moores and toss out the repatriation tax, they’ll also have to grapple with the question of whether all the companies that have already paid the tax would get their money back — and if so, what tax rate they might pay on a refund.

(Not only that, would siding with the plaintiffs lead to other parts of the new tax system getting struck down, too?)

There are more questions about how we got to this point, too: Did the Moores bungle their tax planning? And are they complaining about what amounts to a tax cut, after you do all the math?

LET’S TAKE ANOTHER GANDER: It certainly doesn’t look like it’s going to be all that easy for Republicans to choose a new House speaker — and the longer that uncertainty hovers over the Capitol, the harder it might be for Democrats and the GOP to come together on a year-end tax bill.

But for sure, people both inside and outside of Congress are working hard to see if a deal still can be made, with a package likely to be centered on expanding the Child Tax Credit and ending some of the business tax increase embedded in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

With that in mind, American Policy Ventures, a group working to spur bipartisan action in Washington, has released a new poll finding that likely general election voters do want Congress to expand the CTC — about two-thirds in all, according to the survey from Cygnal.

Still, only a small segment of that healthy majority — about a fifth of likely voters in all — want to bring back the monthly child payment program that Democrats enacted in 2021.

The rest, about 40 percent of likely voters, would rather see a more modest expansion — which, as it happens, looks to be a more likely outcome, given Republican opposition to that most recent CTC expansion.

Close to half of poll respondents also said they would support some kind of bipartisan compromise on the child credit, with about 20 percent each saying they were opposed to a deal or didn’t have a thought either way.

“This new poll convincingly shows that voters across the political spectrum want to see members of Congress from both sides of the aisle work on a bipartisan compromise to expand the Child Tax Credit,” said Paolo Mastrangelo, the co-founder and co-president of American Policy Ventures.

The poll, Mastrangelo added, is just the latest piece of evidence “that shows lawmakers can and should work together on this issue without fear of any political disincentive or retribution from their bases.”

Along these lines: And of course, the SALT debate is never too far from any of these discussions.

The latest there: Republicans from New York state are pressing the current candidates for speaker about how open they might be to offering relief to the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions that was enacted by the 2017 GOP tax law, as Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reported.

Blue state Republicans are in a pretty distinct minority within their conference in wanting SALT cap relief, but it doesn’t sound like these New York Republicans are drawing any lines in the sand with the contenders for speaker.

 

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Around the World

Associated Press: “UK Labour Party says it will focus on economic growth, not higher taxes.”

Bloomberg: “Switzerland Set to Extend Sharing of Banking Information.”

Reuters: “Top Treasury lawyer  sees Brazil beating revenue outlook for tax disputes.”

Around the Nation

MassLive: “N.H. lottery ad takes aim at Mass. lottery winners’ taxes, millionaire’s tax.”

The Sheridan Press: Wyoming legislature “to consider multiple property tax relief bills in 2024.”

Fox 5 Atlanta: “Kemp extends Georgia gas tax suspension, state of emergency.”

Also Worth Your Time

Pro Energy: “Treasury lays out rules for instant EV rebate.”

Tax Notes on Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio): “Candidate for House Speaker a Longtime IRS Critic.”

Fareed Zakaria in The Washington Post: “To tame the deficit, America needs a national sales tax.”

Did you know?

James Dean is the only person to have received two posthumous Oscar nominations for acting — for “East of Eden” and “Giant.”

 

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Bernie Becker @berniebecker3

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