By Gabriel Gavin

With additional reporting from Joe Anuta

An Azerbaijani Army officer shows weapons and equipment surrendered by Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh on Oct. 1. | Aziz Karimov/AP Photo

TROUBLEMAKER — For months now, military analysts have been zooming in on the front lines in Ukraine as the country’s defenders fight tooth and nail with Russia’s forces for every inch of their land. But as the West looks for signs of Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive, Moscow is expanding its gaze much further afield.

In recent weeks, a spate of global hotspots have been heating up from Eastern Europe to West Africa, and there are fears that the Kremlin — as part of its efforts to undermine Western interests and create new crises — has a hand in the chaos.

Just last month, the South Caucasus nation of Azerbaijan — a close ally of NATO member Turkey — launched a bloody offensive into the breakaway, Armenian-held region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Amid fears of ethnic cleansing, more than 100,000 people have now fled their homes, creating a humanitarian crisis in the sensitive region, sandwiched between Russia and Iran.

While Azerbaijan insists it has the right to take control of its internationally-recognized territory, the lightning war that left hundreds dead came amid weeks of diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and EU to prevent the bloodshed. Earlier this week, POLITICO revealed that Washington and Brussels had even sent envoys for secret talks with Russian officials in Istanbul in a bid to prevent the situation deteriorating.

“I think this could not have happened without the active complicity of Russia,” one senior EU official tells me, arguing the onslaught comes as Moscow wreaks havoc in areas the West is desperately trying to keep stable.

Meanwhile, across the continent, Washington has warned Serbia is building up tanks, troops and artillery on the border of Kosovo in what it warns could be a “destabilizing” move in the fractured Balkans. Amid claims of Serbian complicity in a gun attack in the north of the partly-recognized Kosovan state, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić met with Russia’s ambassador, while Moscow has fanned the flames with talk of “bias” against ethnic Serbs.

The developments come in the wake of increasing Russian influence in West Africa, with Moscow taking advantage of a coup in Niger to bolster anti-European sentiment and take aim at France’s ties in its former colonial empire. The Kremlin has even gone as far as handing out Russian flags, which have been spotted at protests and demonstrations and are marketed almost as a fashion trend.

In 2021, in the wake of the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden said America was done being the “world’s policeman,” and has since sought to focus on Ukraine as one area Washington can make a difference.

That pleased many Europeans, who for years balked at the idea of America as top cop on the continent. But stretched thin by the conflict, it’s clear that many of Washington’s allies are struggling to cope with an increasingly unstable situation in their own backyard as Moscow foments more and more unrest. That’s led to growing calls on the U.S. to take on a more assertive role.

Responding to growing security threats across Eurasia, Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador not usually known for his positive view on the U.S., wrote online that even “a clumsy and overbearing policeman may be better than the law of the jungle.”

But, those calls are landing in Washington at a time when support for Ukraine has already become a divisive election issue — opposed by Republicans who argue taxpayers’ money is spent better at home. With elections looming and a focus on Ukraine, for now at least, it seems it’s the White House that isn’t ready to pick up the baton.

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POLITICAL MISSION — New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ trip to Latin America could end up being good politics for the moderate Democrat, reports POLITICO’S Joe Anuta for Nightly.

And the GOP, too.

Adams’ rhetoric on the migrant surge in New York City has often put him at odds with fellow Democrats — he has personally criticized President Joe Biden, tarnishing their relationship — and endeared him to Republicans, several of whom are running in contested House races outside of New York City that could help decide control of Congress.

Adams’ frustration with the White House led him on a whirlwind tour of Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia to meet with foreign officials dealing with the crisis and to personally warn migrants against coming to New York City, where more than 110,000 asylum seekers have passed through since last spring. Around half are still in the city’s care.

With the mayor touching down in Quito, Ecuador, today to personally visit with asylum- seekers before heading to the treacherous Darién Gap a day later, GOP lawmakers have fresh and vivid imagery to draw from as immigration stands to be top election issues in House races next year.

Joe Borelli, head of the New York City Council’s GOP caucus, said Adams’ trip justified many of his colleague’s feelings on the issue.

"Anytime the mayor says in substance that my position on the migrant crisis was the more reasonable one, and he wants to proclaim that on television stations the world over, I’m excited," he said in an interview, referencing the mayor’s plant-based diet in the process: "Had I been invited, I would have found the best vegan ceviche spot in Quito."

Other Republicans also piled on.

“Eric Adams is literally doing a tour of Central and South America to tell migrants not to come to New York City,” freshman Hudson Valley GOP Rep. Mike Lawler wrote in a Facebook post. “Wouldn’t it be so much easier to just repeal New York City’s sanctuary city status and endorse Republican efforts at the federal level to secure our porous border?”

On the other end of the political spectrum, the mayor’s trip has been blasted by advocate groups and progressives who argue he is not doing enough for new arrivals, and that his effort to discourage people from making the trek in the first place is harmful.

Experts in immigration and foreign policy, meanwhile, have said his trip is unlikely to alter the complex geopolitical currents causing the crisis in the first place.

But it is that lack of control on the part of Adams that could actually make the notion of going to see the flow of migrants firsthand — at the very least a show of interest and boots on the ground —play well with New York City voters.

“I have found that until you go and see what is taking place in a particular country, you never get a full understanding,” said Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), who is the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “You have this dialogue that is going back and forth.”

Today, Adams briefed reporters virtually on what he had witnessed after visiting several community organizations helping asylum-seekers. The mayor said that they listened to the stories of several migrants who had fled economic hardship and physical violence — and had been told lies about what awaited them in the United States along the way.

“You need real solutions to solve these real problems,” the mayor said. “And it starts here with talking to people who are most deeply affected by those solutions.”

Regardless of how the trip is received, if Adams’ past junkets are any indication, he will use it as both a cudgel against critics and a readymade talking point to try to demonstrate his commitment to an issue far beyond his political power to solve.

“I saw El Paso. I witnessed other cities and municipalities. That did not happen in New York City,” Adams said last month during a televised interview on FOX5. “So those who are critiquing how we’ve handled this crisis really don’t have a full scope of what this administration has done.”

— UAW holds off on widening strike citing ‘significant progress’ in talks: The United Auto Workers will not expand its strike against the Big Three automakers for the time being, union President Shawn Fain said today, since contract talks have made “significant progress” in recent days. Fain said the union was poised to strike some of General Motors’ most profitable product lines, but that the company made a major concession on bringing electric vehicle battery production under its master agreement with the UAW. GM said in a statement it remains focused on “finding solutions to address outstanding issues.”

— McCarthy considers resigning from the House before the end of his term: Kevin McCarthy is considering resigning from the House before the end of his term, two people familiar with the matter told POLITICO. The deposed former speaker has made clear he plans to stay at least through the speakership election that begins next week before ending his House career, these people said, in order to help the party steady itself after a seismic shakeup. In a closed-door meeting with his conference, hours after eight House Republicans united with Democrats to strip him of the gavel, the Californian signaled that he wanted to return home. “I’m going to spend time with my family,” he said, though the remarks were largely drowned out by lawmakers’ shouting, according to Republicans familiar with the meeting.

— Pharmacies begin dispensing abortion pills: A handful of independent pharmacies across the country have quietly begun dispensing the abortion pill mifepristone under new rules created by the Biden administration earlier this year, even as a looming Supreme Court case could reimpose restrictions or ban the drugs entirely. Thousands of branches of major pharmacy chains are poised to join them — making the drugs more accessible to millions of people nationwide and kicking off a new phase of the legal and political battle over the most popular method of ending a pregnancy. GenBioPro, the maker of generic mifepristone, published a list this week of 19 pharmacies in nine states certified to dispense the drug. The list, according to the company, only represents places that agreed to be named. The locations include independent community pharmacies, university-affiliated outlets and compounders, plus a mail-order pharmacy filling prescriptions in several states.

THE END OF IOWA — Iowa’s influential perch within the Democratic Party will come to an end today when members of the Democratic National Committee are expected to accept Iowa’s plan to release its presidential preference numbers on March 5, Super Tuesday, POLITICO reports.

Iowa’s capitulation caps off more than a year of internal party machinations over how to retool the party’s presidential nominating calendar, prioritizing battleground states with more diverse populations over Iowa, long the party’s first-in-the-nation caucus state.

Following a plan blessed by President Joe Biden, next year’s nominating calendar will kick off with South Carolina on Feb. 3, followed by Nevada on Feb. 6 and Michigan on Feb. 27. Georgia, which was initially elevated to a top slot, wasn’t able to change its date, due to its Republican-controlled legislature and governor’s mansion. That means Iowa is effectively eliminated from the early-state process, while New Hampshire’s fate is still unclear.

CAR WRECK — Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign says at least two protesters upset about the Republican presidential candidate’s remarks in opposition to aid for Ukraine purposely rammed his car in Iowa in retaliation on Thursday, but police say there is no evidence to support the claim that the crash was intentional, reports the Associated Press.

The police account of the crash in the central Iowa city of Grinnell sharply diverged from the story told earlier by Ramaswamy’s campaign, which contended that protesters yelled and swore at the candidate before at least one of them jumped into a vehicle, rammed his empty campaign car and sped off. The campaign said that no one was injured and that it had filed a police report.

THE ACTUARIAL ELECTION — How long can the two presidential candidates expect to live a healthy life? The answer from actuaries might surprise voters, writes the Wall Street Journal.

Many of the factors that predict longer life favor Biden and Trump, based on publicly released information about their health…A nonsmoking male with Biden’s birthday, in good health, would be expected to live nine more years after next year’s Election Day, while for one with Trump’s birthday, it would be 11 years.

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Commissioner-designate for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra takes part in a hearing of the Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI), as part of a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. | Frederick Florin/AFP via Getty Images

TOWARDS NET ZERO — Something quietly enormous occurred this week in Europe: The EU took a major step toward pledging to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040, within a whisker of net zero before a child born today will finish school, write Karl Mathiesen and Zia Weise.

The context was not promising. Dutchman Wopke Hoekstra — a former Shell oil employee — and Slovak Maroš Šefčovič — who lacked significant climate credentials — both pitched themselves for the two top jobs in the European Commission.

But after members of parliament from Green parties across Europe held up their nominations, both men pledged to “defend” a cut of “at least” 90 percent. They were then confirmed in their posts with the parliamentary committee’s approval.

The target comes from a recommendation in June by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, which said it was both feasible and fair for the EU to reduce its emissions 90-95 percent below 1990 levels by 2040, en route to its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Setting the 2040 target would lay down a benchmark for the EU’s peers in the developed world.

The U.K. wants to reach a 78 percent cut by 2035. But few other countries have set firm stepping stones between 2030 and their ultimate net-zero goal for the middle of the century.

THE LITERARY SUPER BOWL — A community of book lovers the world over tracks the Nobel Prize in Literature like others might be curious about who’s going to win the Super Bowl: there are moving odds, debates and scandals. And for many years, according to experts the prize got surprising and weird; in 2016, it went to Bob Dylan (who, while a beautiful writer, is not known for his literature). The last four years, though, have shown that the Nobel committee had figured out its problems and is back on track awarding recipients who represent the pinnacle of the art form, according to Alex Shephard and Mark Krotov, writing for The New Republic. This week, the committee awarded the Norwegian writer Jon Fosse. Read about Fosse and how the prize is meaningful here.

On this date in 1974: The damaged exterior of The Horse and Groom pub in Guildford, England after it was bombed by the Irish Republican Army. Five people were killed and sixty five injured in the blasts, which also hit another local public house. The aftermath of the Guildford pub bombing — in which the British government apprehended and wrongfully convicted seven people, four for life — was dramatized in the 1993 film 'In the Name of the Father'.   | AP Photo

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