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Mapping the fallout of McCarthy’s ouster

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Oct 05, 2023 View in browser
 

By Bethany Irvine

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SPOILER ALERT — CORNEL WEST is forgoing a presidential run on the Green Party ticket in favor of an independent bid, WSJ’s Ken Thomas reports. “The decision complicates his ability to get on the ballot — if he had won the Green nomination, it would have ensured ballot access in nearly 20 states with the potential for close to all 50 states.”

It’s a potentially significant piece of good news for President JOE BIDEN, whose campaign has been plagued by worries about West’s potential to play a spoiler role in the 2024 campaign by winning the Support of voters who might otherwise back Biden’s reelection.

SPOILER ALERT, PART II — “Anti-vaccine activist ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. … could draw the support of about one in seven U.S. voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll ahead of his [independent] presidential campaign's expected Monday launch,” reports Reuters’ Jason Lange. “In a hypothetical three-way matchup, Kennedy drew 14% support, Biden's share fell to 31% and [DONALD] TRUMP’s to 33%. About 9% said they wouldn't vote and 13% said they did not know who they would vote for.”

The jockeying for the House speakership continues after Kevin McCarthy's ousting. | AP

THE McCARTHY AFTERMATH — The fallout from KEVIN McCARTHY’s ousting as speaker of the House continues to dominate the stories out of Capitol Hill today. Here's the latest …

The replacements …

— Trump is considering a visit to the House GOP conference, per The Messenger’s Marc Caputo, who reports that the former president “is entertaining becoming speaker on an interim basis for a few months.” (We’re not holding our breath on a Trump speakership.)

— Meanwhile, Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) told NBC’s Ali Vitali and Kyle Stewart this morning that he has spoken with former President Trump about his own bid for the gavel. Asked if the former president supports his candidacy, the Ohioan demurred: “I don’t want to say anything, but I had a great conversation with the president.”

— Jordan did, however, pick up the support of Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.). “For the next Speaker of the House, we need someone who can unite our conference,” he wrote on X, the social network formerly called Twitter. “I believe that my good friend Jim Jordan is that person.”

The retribution …

— Jordan told NBC that he does not support ousting Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) from the Republican conference, despite some McCarthy allies’ calls for his removal. “I disagree with what he did … but he’s a great member of our committee,” Jordan said of Gaetz, who inaugurated the motion to vacate McCarthy as speaker. “I think we gotta come together.”

— Knives are out for Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) after she joined seven GOP hardliners Tuesday to vote for McCarthy’s removal.

Mace explained her vote to reporters yesterday: “Promises that I was made were not kept [by McCarthy]. … When you shake a hand and make a promise, you ought to keep it.” 

But “that decision is now clouding her future in the GOP, not to mention imperiling the status of her relatively competitive seat next year as scores of angry Republicans mull possible retribution,” Meredith Lee Hill and Olivia Beavers report.

“Mace’s move to aggressively fundraise off her vote to bounce McCarthy is only intensifying her colleagues’ anger toward her,” they write, with Rep. STEVE WOMACK (R-Ark.) calling Mace’s push for donations “disgraceful.”

The timing: “Given the House GOP’s slim majority, any retaliation against Mace will likely wait until after the speaker race that’s set to begin next week. As one ally of the former speaker put it: ‘The only grudge that I know as a fact is going to last is the one we are going to hold against those eight assholes.’”

The funding issues … 

— Although the government funding deadline was punted into November, the speakership fight is eating into the House GOP’s time to ward off a shutdown, “reducing the number of days lawmakers have to work to about 30,” WaPo’s Jeff Stein and Jacob Bogage report.

The reverberations on Wall Street …

— “McCarthy’s sudden exit at the hands of a small group of Republicans is shaking the financial sector’s faith in lawmakers’ ability to manage their fiscal obligations,” Sam Sutton writes from Greenwich, Conn. “With the economy facing headwinds, the recent turmoil in D.C. is like 'dancing on a stage that’s set to collapse,' CHRISTINE TODD, the chief investment officer of Arch Capital Group, said.”

… and on the campaign trail.

— Democrats are capitalizing off the drama, Bloomberg’s Ryan Teague Beckwith and Bill Allison report: “More than 20 Democrats in Congress sent fundraising emails following Tuesday’s vote to remove McCarthy as speaker, according to PunditAnalytics. … President Joe Biden joined in, sending a campaign email that tied [McCarthy’s removal] to leading Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.”

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POLICY CORNER 

BUILD (A BORDER WALL) BACK BETTER — In a sweeping policy reversal, the Biden administration announced it is resuming construction on the U.S.-Mexico Border wall in South Texas. In a notice posted this morning, the Department of Homeland Security detailed how it is waiving 26 federal laws to expedite that construction of 20 new miles of barriers in the Rio Grande Valley.

“There is presently an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads,” at the border to “prevent unlawful entries into the United States in the project areas,” DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS said in the notice.

More details: “The Biden administration’s proposed path of the border wall there cuts through a wildlife refuge and numerous private properties, which the government must either buy or seize in court. The Trump administration started that process but ran out of time,” WSJ’s Michelle Hackman reports. “[A U.S. Customs and Border Protection] spokeswoman said the Biden administration is forced to move ahead because it is required to spend the remaining funds, approximately $190 million, as Congress intended.”

The context: The reversal comes as migration on the southern border continues to vex the Biden administration, with September marking a 2023 high of over 200,000 apprehensions of unlawful migrants along the U.S.-Mexico border — including a record 50,000 migrants from Venezuela. The shift also comes after some House Republicans tried to refocus the recent government spending debate around immigration and call for stronger border security measures.

And speaking of U.S.- Mexico relations … Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Secretary Mayorkas and AG MERRICK GARLAND are meeting with officials in Mexico City today in an effort to strengthen relations with the border country and address illegal immigration, drug and gun trafficking.

Still ... At a stop in Texas last night, Blinken “projected optimism” about working with Mexico to help find solutions to the issue, NYT’s Eileen Sullivan and Zolan Kanno-Youngs report: “I have to say we probably have more cooperation with Mexico now than since I’ve been doing this,” Biden said.

2024 WATCH 

DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK — Former Rep. MONDAIRE JONES (D-N.Y.) has raised $1.15 million in the third quarter of 2023 as he eyes a return to Congress, NBC News’ Sahil Kapur scoops this morning: “The substantial sum comes as Jones seeks to consolidate Democratic support in a primary that includes former school board member LIZ WHITMER GEREGHTY — the sister of Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER — and Bedford councilwoman MARYANN CARR. The winner is expected to face first-term Republican Rep. MIKE LAWLER.”

WHAT'S IN A NAME — Even if he left the Democratic Party, West Virginia Sen. JOE MANCHIN would still face an uphill battle for reelection in the Mountain State, Burgess Everett scoops, drawing from a new GOP-commissioned poll. “The new polling shows a majority of West Virginians are aware he is contemplating a party switch [to independent] and that, even if he left the Democratic Party, he’d still be losing registered independent voters in West Virginia to [Gov. JIM] JUSTICE by a margin of 11 points.”

But but but … “Manchin has made no decision on whether to run for another full term and has signaled he’s likely to wait until the end of the year to decide.”

SHOW ME THE MONEY — “Trump campaign reports having $37M in the bank heading into the primaries,” by Jessica Piper

 

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CONGRESS 

SANTOS’ LITTLE HELPER — “Prosecutors say former George Santos campaign treasurer will plead guilty to unspecified charge,” by AP’s Jake Offenhartz: “[NANCY] MARKS resigned amid growing questions about [Rep. GEORGE] SANTOS’ [R-N.Y.] campaign finances and revelations Santos had fabricated much of his life story.”

WAR IN UKRAINE 

UKRAINE ON THE BRAIN — As the debate over President Biden’s request for billions in aid money for Kyiv continues on Capitol Hill, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows support for arming Ukraine Is falling among Americans on both sides of the aisle.

“Some 52% of Democrats backed arming Ukraine in the most recent poll, down from 61% in May,” Reuters’ Jason Lange and Patricia Zengerle report. “Among Republicans, support for sending weapons to Kyiv fell to 35% from 39% in May.”

And while the future of Ukraine aid from the U.S. is murky, European Union leaders are gathering in Spain today to discuss the questions around admitting Ukraine as a member, WaPo’s Emily Rauhala and Beatriz Ríos report from Granada: “Among the immediate challenges: An E.U. country, Slovakia, just backed the party of a pro-Russian populist in elections.”

Still, when asked about a possible funding scaleback, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY told reporters in Spain that he is confident in America’s support. “I think it’s too late for us to worry,” Zelenskyy said, “I think we have to work on it.” More from NYT’s Monika Pronczuk and Constant Méheut

 

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY 

DEM REDISTRICTING VICTORY? — “Court picks new Alabama congressional map that will likely flip one seat to Democrats,” by Zach Montellaro and Madison Fernandez: “The map gives greater electoral power to Black residents, who make up about one-quarter of the state’s population. And it will very likely mean Republicans lose one seat in their thin majority, imperiling their already tenuous hold on the lower chamber even before battleground districts come into play.”

TIK TOK ON THE CLOCK — “Youngkin takes $2M from TikTok investor despite app ban, China warnings,” by WaPo’s Laura Vozzella: “JEFF YASS, a billionaire financier whose personal stake in TikTok’s parent company is worth a reported $21 billion, donated $2 million to [Virginia Gov. GLENN] YOUNGKIN’S Spirit of Virginia political action committee … Youngkin has been courting GOP megadonors ahead of the Nov. 7 state legislative elections that are expected to determine his viability as a potential last-minute candidate for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination.”

IN THE STRIKE ZONE — “Kaiser health care strike injects nation with another dose of labor tumult,” by Nick Niedzwiadek: “Democrats already working to resolve labor strife in Detroit and Hollywood are now contending with another show of force — the largest U.S. health care strike on record that’s playing out across the country. About 75,000 Kaiser Permanente employees in five states and Washington, D.C., walked off the job on Wednesday, demanding higher wages and improved staffing levels at facilities that were once overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients and still operate at a pace that the workers say is untenable.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS 

TRANSITIONS — Jillian McGrath is now director of congressional affairs for the USTR. She most recently was a legislative aide for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. … Annie D’Amato will be a senior director at Invariant. She previously was counsel for Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Dems. … Roger Moore is now policy director at the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He previously was senior policy analyst at the Council of State Governments.

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Mapping the fallout of McCarthy’s ouster

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