By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

OVERNIGHT FROM THE WSJ — “Rising Interest Rates Mean Deficits Finally Matter,” by WSJ’s Greg Ip: “[T]he scale and upward trajectory of U.S. borrowing and absence of any political corrective now threaten markets and the economy in ways they haven’t for at least a generation.”

OVERNIGHT FROM THE NYT — According to “an analysis published on Thursday, the rate of firearm fatalities among children under 18 increased by 87 percent from 2011 through 2021 in the United States,” writes NYT’s Roni Caryn Rabin.

INSIDE THE RACE FOR THE GAVEL — The jockeying to replace KEVIN McCARTHY as speaker is in full force on Capitol Hill, after House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE and Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) declared their candidacies for the post. This morning, we thought we’d take some time to flesh out the strengths and weaknesses of both — as well as explore the challenges both men will face as they try to garner the 218 votes needed to win the speakership.

THE HEIR APPARENT: STEVE SCALISE

Always smiling and quick to joke, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is the type of politician you end up drinking too much wine with at a steakhouse. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

— Greatest strengths: relationships, personality and story. When it comes to leadership races, Team Scalise is battle-tested and has been ready for this moment for years. The Louisiana Republican pulled off a coup when he ran for majority whip several years ago, vanquishing then-Rep. PETER ROSKAM (R-Ill.), who had a lead many thought was insurmountable.

Always smiling and quick to joke, Scalise is the type of politician you end up drinking too much wine with at a steakhouse. He’s a sympathetic figure, too: a father of two; a survivor of a shooting that nearly killed him; a man who is, at this moment, battling blood cancer and undergoing chemo while still working in Washington.

He’s well-liked, and while his own politics lean toward the right end of the spectrum, he has close relationships with centrists and moderates by virtue of both his personality, his former role as whip and his prodigious fundraising efforts. Over the past decade, he’s brought in $170 million to support Republican candidates.

— Biggest weakness: old feuds. Despite being generally well liked, Scalise has a few foes he’s going to have to contend with — and they’re not named Jim Jordan.

Aides to McCarthy have been calling lawmakers on behalf of Jordan’s speakership bid, Semafor’s Kadia Goba scooped last night. (“It’s unclear if Mccarthy himself has sanctioned their work,” she notes. “One source familiar with their efforts described the staff as ‘consulting and providing guidance’ to Jordan’s operation, which they distinguished from an endorsement.”) And yesterday, Rep. GARRET GRAVES, a close McCarthy ally, appeared to swipe at the idea of his fellow Louisiana Republican moving up the ladder.

Those who’ve covered McCarthy and Scalise know there’s no love lost between the two men — or their staffs, for that matter. Their rivalry dates back to at least 2018, when Scalise expressed interest in succeeding PAUL RYAN as speaker if McCarthy couldn’t get the votes. The relationship never fully recovered.

In the years that followed, McCarthy iced Scalise out of his inner circle, building his own shadow leadership squad and deputizing people like Graves and Rep. PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.) to take the lead on key negotiations. During McCarthy’s marathon speakership bid in January, McCarthy allies privately vented that Scalise wasn’t doing enough to help McCarthy.

This week, McCarthy refused to weigh in on who should replace him. But given the line of succession that typically governs these sorts of transitions, it’d be a major slight if he doesn’t endorse his No. 2.

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THE DARK HORSE: JIM JORDAN

Freedom Caucus founder Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has been held in high regard by the GOP base for constantly pushing leadership to the right on policy. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

— Greatest strengths: conservative credentials and the Trump card. If there’s one House Republican who can convince the MAGA hardliners to lay down their weapons and make peace with the rest of the GOP Conference, it’s Jordan.

For much of the past decade, the Freedom Caucus founder has been held in high regard by the GOP base for constantly pushing leadership to the right on policy. A quick-talking former wrestling champion, Jordan is Republicans’ most skilled investigator and interrogator — qualities that have been on full display as he’s chaired the House Judiciary Committee — and he embodies that anti-establishment fighter mentality that MAGA world loves.

He could also receive a boost from someone the base likes even more: DONALD TRUMP. White the former president has flirted with this silly suggestion that he himself might be a possible speaker candidate, Trump is a huge Jordan fan and fawned over the Ohioan’s TV appearances so much that other Republicans got jealous.

— Greatest weaknesses: history, tactics and fundraising. Had someone told us just a few years ago that Jim Jordan would be a viable speaker candidate, we would have snickered. While he’s largely considered a team player today, it wasn’t long ago that he was one of the most divisive characters inside the Republican Conference.

A chaos agent who cheered shutdowns and fiscal brinkmanship, Jordan constantly pummelled GOP leadership and made their lives hell. He advocated for aggressive oversight measures that made some Republicans uncomfortable, including impeaching the former IRS commissioner and even former Deputy AG ROD ROSENSTEIN over the investigation of Russia’s 2016 campaign interference on behalf of Trump.

Some frontline Republicans are already concerned that Jordan’s reputation will be an albatross in their JOE BIDEN-leaning districts. One centrist Republican told us he wasn’t happy Jordan voted against the CR resolution last weekend and plans to quiz him on how he’ll handle such situations in the future.

Jordan could also face fundraising questions. While he’s beloved by the base and has a solid online donor base, he doesn’t have the connections with wealthy more establishment donors who often cut big checks for Republicans. His fundraising numbers are also a paltry fraction of Scalise’s.

ONE CRAZY IDEA — Given the conflicting dynamics in the House Republican Conference, it’s entirely possible that neither man gets 218 votes. If that happens, some Republicans have already whispered about whether we might see some sort of deal cut between Scalise and Jordan that would enable them to run as a “slate.” Under such an idea, Scalise would become speaker, looking out for the more establishment and frontline members, and Jordan would become majority leader, to give leadership’s decisions credibility with the hard right.

To be sure, neither camp is talking about this at the moment. But the idea has actually come up before: When McCarthy has sought to climb the ladder in the past, conservatives made a similar pitch in return for support. But back then, given Jordan’s poor reputation with the conference, McCarthy refused.

Related reads: “Scalise and Jordan’s battle for centrists,” by Daniella Diaz in Huddle …  “The GOP armed its bazooka caucus. What could go wrong?” by NBC’s Jonathan Allen … “Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as House speaker could cost GOP its best fundraiser heading into 2024,” by AP’s Will Weissert and Brian Slodysko

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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On the Hill

The House and The Senate are out.

3 things to watch …

1. The public — or, at least, select members of it — will say farewell to the late Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN today. A memorial service scheduled to take place outside San Francisco’s City Hall was closed to the general public yesterday due to nonspecific security concerns. At least three dozen members of Congress are expected to attend, the SF Chronicle reports, as well as VP KAMALA HARRIS, former President BILL CLINTON and other dignitaries. Watch on C-SPAN at 4 p.m. Eastern
   
2. McHenry might have “speaker” in his title, but there’s a debate afoot about the extent of his pro tempore powers — one that may intensify if the election process drags out. The post-9/11 rule change allowed for the appointment of an acting speaker but seemingly only for the purposes of holding an election for a permanent speaker. That’s the position, anyway, of Rep. JIM McGOVERN (Mass.), the top Rules Committee Democrat, who publicly challenged McHenry’s right to evict two top Democrats from their Capitol hideaways. But Georgetown University fellow MATT GLASSMAN suggests on Substack there might be some wiggle room.
   
3. There are only 43 days till the next potential government shutdown, but don’t labor under the impression that lawmakers are rushing to get their appropriations work done. The House is, of course, in an indefinite holding pattern after McCarthy’s dismissal. The Senate, meanwhile, will try to return to a three-bill minibus, Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER announced yesterday — but not until Oct. 16, when senators return from recess.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Briefing and a Ukraine briefing in the morning.

Harris will deliver remarks at the memorial service for Feinstein in the afternoon.

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THE WHITE HOUSE

While the Biden campaign may be eager to portray the House Republicans as a circus, those inside the administration are feeling more trepidation after Kevin McCarthy's ouster. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — While the White House took no formal role in House Democrats’ decision-making over McCarthy’s fate this week, many Biden advisers weren’t exactly heartbroken to see someone they saw as untrustworthy exit the stage.

“Senior Democrats believe that the chaos enveloping House Republicans has the potential to further discredit the GOP as a party of incompetence and ideological extremism. But for all the apparent political upside for Democrats, the turmoil in the House also now presents perilous governing challenges,” Adam Cancryn, Jennifer Haberkorn, Lara Seligman and Sam Stein report.

While the Biden campaign may be eager to portray the House Republicans as a circus, those inside the administration are feeling more trepidation as the immediate need to hammer out policy now faces an uncertain future.

To wit: An outside foreign policy adviser told our colleagues he’d been “sending some ‘holy f---’ texts” about the prospects of future Ukraine aid to the White House in the aftermath of McCarthy’s ouster.

More top reads: 

• Prosecutors in the HUNTER BIDEN federal gun charges case “moved Wednesday to formally dismiss a gun count that had been part of a collapsed plea deal,” AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst writes. “The president’s son is now facing a three-count indictment focused on the same purchase that includes both gun possession and false statement charges.”

• COMMANDER, the Biden’s family dog, has been involved in more than the 11 previously reported biting incidents, CNN’s Betsy Klein reports, noting that Commander is currently not on the White House premises as next steps are evaluated.

2024 WATCH

Donald Trump’s latest haul means that he dwarfs Ron DeSantis’ $5 million on hand for the primary. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

TRUMP’S LATEST TRIUMPH — Trump’s campaign brought in $45.5 million from July through September, it announced yesterday, per NYT’s Shane Goldmacher — a figure that roughly triples that of his chief rival, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, who said earlier yesterday that he brought in $15 million in the third quarter.

By the numbers: Trump’s latest haul means that he currently has “$37.5 million on hand, $36 million of which was eligible to be spent on the 2024 primary race,” Goldmacher notes. That total dwarfs DeSantis’ $5 million on hand for the primary.

While no other campaigns have released their fundraising totals (and the figures can’t be checked against the formal filings until Oct. 15), it’s hard to imagine other campaigns will be anywhere near Trump’s total.

The train rolls on: “The Trump campaign’s fund-raising has risen each quarter this year. Mr. DeSantis raised less in the most recent quarter than in the previous one,” Goldmacher notes.

More top reads:

• Some inside the RNC are questioning whether the GOP primary debates should continue in their current format — as Trump continues to skip the spectacle while running away from his challengers — concluding that the events have largely become a sideshow and an embarrassment for the party, Natalie Allison reports.

• “If the 2024 presidential election is close in Arizona, a newly enacted state law will mandate a ballot recount that will probably cause the state to miss crucial deadlines for certifying the vote,” WaPo’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez reports from Phoenix. “Worst-case scenario, more than half a dozen election officials told The Post, Arizona could delay pivotal steps in the process for sitting a president.”

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MORE POLITICS

Reps. Byron Donalds and Matt Gaetz are hard-charging Florida conservatives with different approaches. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

FLORIDA FAMILY FEUD — In the shutdown fight and the ouster of McCarthy as speaker, Florida GOP Reps. MATT GAETZ and BYRON DONALDS have found themselves at odds. But the feuding has more than just congressional implications as the two men position themselves for an expected faceoff to succeed DeSantis as governor of the Sunshine State.

“They have positioned themselves differently in Congress: both as stern conservatives, but with Gaetz as a rebellious gadfly and Donalds as a more conventional hard-liner, a dynamic that helped shape the shutdown fight,” Kimberly Leonard and Mia McCarthy write from Miami.

“Gaetz emerged Tuesday, after successfully booting McCarthy from the speakership, as one of the most influential Republicans in the nation — the leader of the first successful House coup. And as he eyes Florida’s governorship, his shadow feud could quickly turn Washington dynamics into fodder for a Tallahassee campaign war.”

More top reads:

• The mess surrounding Sen. BOB MENENDEZ and his political future has launched something of an open season in New Jersey as a load of ambitious would-be successors jump at the chance to ascend to the seat. But it’s not just Democrats angling for the run — Rep. JEFF VAN DREW, the Democrat turned Republican, is speaking with Trump about mounting a campaign, Ally Mutnick, Sarah Ferris and Nicholas Wu report.

• RICK CARUSO, the billionaire shopping mall magnate who lost an expensive race for LA mayor, is stepping out of the shadows with a plan to help Dems flip the five California congressional districts Biden won in 2020 that are now held by Republicans, our colleagues Chris Cadelago and Melanie Mason scoop.

CONGRESS

MORE McCARTHY FALLOUT — “Why didn’t McCarthy ask Trump to save him?” by Alex Isenstadt, Meridith McGraw and Sam Stein: “McCarthy’s decision not to ask Trump for a hand was driven by the belief that he didn’t have the political capital to make the request, said one Republican familiar with the thinking. While Trump had demanded that Republicans shut down the government if they didn’t get major spending cuts, McCarthy had forged a deal only to fund the government at current spending levels for 45 days. And, more significantly, while Trump’s orbit had been expecting McCarthy to endorse him in the presidential primary, the speaker had so far kept his powder dry.”

THE COLLATERAL DAMAGE — Democrats and Republicans in the Senate (as well as Biden) are growing increasingly alarmed with the prospect of moving more aid for Ukraine as the chaos in the House continues to unravel, AP’s Mary Clare Jalonick and Kevin Freking write.

IN THE BUNKER — “From a Capitol Hill Basement, Bannon Stokes the Republican Party Meltdown,” by NYT’s Annie Karni

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — The most important cases headed to the Supreme Court this term seemingly have nothing to do with health care on the surface. But three key cases are part of a broader conservative effort targeting the administrative state and could set new precedents that block federal agencies from providing health care services with major implications, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Lauren Gardner write. If the court moves in the coming months to restrict federal agencies’ powers, patient advocates and former health officials from both parties warn that a raft of health policy decisions could be punted to a gridlocked Congress.

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Appeals court doubtful on Trump’s lawsuit against Twitter,” by Josh Gerstein

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

IMMIGRATION FILES — “Record number of Venezuelan migrants crossed U.S.-Mexico border in September, internal data show,” by CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez: “The all-time monthly record in border crossings by Venezuelans partially fueled a yearly high in unauthorized arrivals along the southern border in September, making up roughly a quarter of more than 200,000 apprehensions reported by Border Patrol last month. On some days, as many as 3,000 migrants from Venezuela crossed into the U.S. illegally in 24 hours, the internal DHS figures show.”

Related read: “Influx of migrants at border gains renewed attention as ‘crisis’ rhetoric spreads,” by NBC’s Erik Ortiz

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Donald Trump is back in Florida as the civil trial against him in NYC continues — despite his prior declaration that he would appear in the courtroom in person all week.

Ted Cruz fell victim to an unfortunately timed FEMA test alert … or two.

Thom Tillis’ “bipawtisan Howloween” party is back.

Trump’s only worthy adversary in 2024 is … Taylor Swift, according to his former aide.

Michael Wolff’s latest book is a bestseller, but not exactly a barnburner.

SPOTTED: Kari Lake having dinner with Jason Miller at The Palm yesterday evening.