By Kimberly Leonard

Good morning and welcome to Thursday.

Plenty of lawmakers and political insiders have accused GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of burning down the House to ignite interest in a 2026 gubernatorial bid in Florida.

While Gaetz denies he has plans to run for governor (as he simultaneously admits he’d enjoy the job and would prefer Tallahassee over D.C.), maneuvering for the upcoming governor’s race has already begun and goes far further than the MAGA provocateur.

The early jockeying in the GOP is exposing the beginnings of another proxy war between Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump, and is another sign of the Florida governor’s waning influence in his home state as he struggles on the presidential campaign trail.

The Trump Lane: On one side is not just Gaetz, but Reps. Byron Donalds and Mike Waltz. All three have endorsed Trump for president, and their early interest in the governor’s mansion speaks to their confidence that the former president will win the presidential nomination. They wouldn’t, for example, need or seek out DeSantis’ otherwise-coveted endorsement.

Donalds, who sparred with Gaetz in the speakership and spending battles, confirmed he’s interested in running for governor whether or not Gaetz runs. “I’ve never been afraid of a fight,” he said in a brief interview at the Capitol.

WEST PALM BEACH, FL - OCTOBER 03: Republican candidate for Florida governor Ron DeSantis and his running mate Jeanette Nunez attend an event put on by the Police Benevolent Association in Palm Beach County on October 3, 2018 in West Palm Beach, Florida. DeSantis is facing off against Democratic challenger Andrew Gillum to be the next Florida governor. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The DeSantis Lane: Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez and state Attorney General Ashley Moody. Nuñez, who is the highest-ranking Latina in Florida and served as DeSantis’ running mate in 2018 and 2022, endorsed the governor for president in May. And DeSantis returned the favor, saying Nuñez would provide continuity in the governor’s office if he wins the presidency and takes office in 2025.

“If [Gaetz and Donalds are] right and Trump is the nominee, it’s an open season primary for governor,” said David Custin, Nuñez’s political consultant. “If they are wrong, they won't get DeSantis’ support for governor and Lt. Gov. Nuñez would be the undisputed favorite.”

A person close to Moody said she was “very interested” in running in 2026 but that a key consideration would be whether Nuñez became governor before that election. Moody also endorsed DeSantis, and Florida has never had a woman governor.

The TBD Lane: Florida Chief financial officer Jimmy Patronis is also “taking a serious look at” the race, said a person close to Patronis who was granted anonymity to speak freely about the contest. Patronis, who was first appointed to his position by former Florida Gov. Rick Scott, has not endorsed yet in the presidential race but said on Newsmax recently that DeSantis shouldn’t be underestimated.

There’s good reason for candidates to float their names this early in the game. This way, potential supporters and key endorsers won’t prematurely align themselves with someone else before knowing all their options. Plus, lobbyists are already gaming out the next few years anyway.

“There are a number of dominos that could be falling in ‘26,” said Brett Doster, a Tallahassee-based Republican consultant who worked on Jeb Bush’s gubernatorial run and as senior adviser for Florida to the Mitt Romney presidential campaign. “It’s not too early to talk about it because a lot of party insiders sit around and speculate about this all day long.”

— Mia McCarthy contributed from Washington, D.C. 

— WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis is expected to join Need to Know with Jeff Angelo on WHO Radio at 11 a.m. Then he will hold a campaign event in Tampa at 2 p.m.

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BATTLING BIDEN — Florida sues Biden administration in new dispute over unions, by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout: Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody filed a federal lawsuit in Fort Lauderdale that asserts top White House officials — including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — are violating federal law because they are threatening to withhold hundreds of millions in federal grants unless a state panel grants waivers to Florida’s new union law.

SMOKE FREE — Moody also filed a lawsuit Wednesday against Juul Labs, alleging that the e-cigarette company was dishonest about the nicotine in its products and that it was marketing to kids, reports News Service of Florida’s Jim Saunders.

CHECK IN — Three people have been charged with a felony for transporting undocumented immigrants into Florida in the three months since the state’s anti-illegal immigration law took effect, reports Tampa Bay Times’ Juan Carlos Chavez. The cases took place in August and involved two Mexicans and one Honduran, the Tampa Bay Times found through a records request.

IN COURT — “Florida justices review controversial protest law, trying to determine meaning of word ‘riot,’” by News Service of Florida’s Jim Saunders: “Attorneys for DeSantis and the Jacksonville sheriff on Wednesday told the Florida Supreme Court that innocent bystanders and peaceful protesters are not threatened by a controversial 2021 law that seeks to crack down on protests that turn violent.”

Sen. Ray Rodrigues, R-Estero, chairman of the Committee on Reapportionment, listens on the floor of the Senate Tuesday, April 19, 2022, at the Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla. | Phil Sears/AP Photo

HBCU DISPUTE — Florida is the latest state to punch back at the Biden administration for suggesting that historically Black colleges and universities aren’t getting their fair share of funding.

In a letter this week to top federal agriculture and education officials, state university system Chancellor Ray Rodrigues disputed claims by the U.S. Department of Education that Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University has been underfunded.

The $1.9 billion in state dollars that the Biden administration says FAMU deserves to make up for “unacceptable funding inequities” over the years “may be fitting for a headline in the press, it does not tell the full story,” according to Rodrigues.

The former Republican state lawmaker contended in a letter to federal officials that spending on FAMU has grown proportionally to the state budget. The operating budget at the school has increased by more than 37 percent, from $103.2 million to $142 million, under DeSantis and FAMU received $26.5 million in additional funds, Rodrigues noted.

— Andrew Atterbury

ON OFFENSE WITH BIG BUCKS — Famous authors are partnering with PEN America to fight book removals in Florida, reports USA TODAY Network-Florida’s Douglas Soule. The group will be headquartered in Miami.

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JUST KIDDING — Broward College pivots after DeSantis ally withdraws from interim president, by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury: The former top Florida Department of Education official and DeSantis ally chosen to run Broward College — at least in the interim — has decided not to take the job.

Broward College officials, in a stunning reversal, announced Wednesday that Barbara Bryan, once president of the school’s north campus, is taking over as acting president instead of Henry Mack III, who was picked for the job just the day before. Bryan is already beginning the new role after the college and Mack were unable to iron out a deal.

COMPLAINT — “Fabián Basabe aide files ethics complaint accusing Aventura Mayor of berating him,” by Florida Politics’ Jesse Scheckner: The complaint is against Aventura Mayor Howard Weinberg, for “allegedly berating him at a crowded gathering in the city in late August. In a filing with the Miami-Dade Commission on Ethics and Public Trust, district aide Adrian Gonzalez said Weinberg approached him twice, letting loose loud, profanity-laden outbursts about Basabe. Several people who attended the event, including one Gonzalez named in his complaint, said the incident didn’t happen.”

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., listens during a briefing about response and recovery efforts to the aftermath of Hurricane Idalia with President Joe Biden, left, at Suwannee Pineview Elementary School, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, in Live Oak, Fla. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez) | AP

FUNDING-FOCUSED AD — Sen. Rick Scott will air an ad called “Hostage” during Sunday Night Football that blasts Democrats for insisting that natural disaster funding be paired with Ukraine aid. The five-figure ad buy will air in Tampa, Fort Myers, Tallahassee and Gainesville, and comes as Floridians are still recovering from Hurricane Idalia. Ultimately, the $16 billion in disaster aid Scott pushed for was included in the continuing resolution authorized over the weekend, while additional Ukraine funding is still unresolved.

PACK YOUR BAGS — DeSantis is relocating a significant portion of his presidential campaign staff from Tallahassee to Des Moines, NYT reported. “His campaign now employs 56 people, including four Iowa staffers — a number that will soon grow to nearly two dozen, making Iowa a de facto second headquarters.”

The announcement comes as DeSantis raised $15 million during the third quarter, as POLITCO’s Sally Goldenberg reported. Campaign manager James Uthmeier said in a statement that the funds would quiet “the doubters who counted out Ron DeSantis far too long.” The haul was raised between his campaign committee, leadership PAC and joint fundraising committee, but, as NBC News reported, only $5 million can be used during the primary.

But the polls are less impressive. Former U.N. Ambassador Haley beat DeSantis 19 percent to 10 percent in a Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY survey released on Wednesday morning, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky reported. And Trump is also out-performing DeSantis in his home state by 35 percentage points, The Messenger’s Marc Caputo reported.

And the fundraising numbers are also mild when compared to Trump, whose campaign said he raised three times more. (Remember: This was the quarter that Trump fundraised off his mugshot and accompanying merch.)

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DESANTIS SLAMS MASS — DeSantis is trying to score political points off Massachusetts again.

The Florida governor slammed the state on X for “housing illegal aliens on the taxpayers’ dime” after a Boston Herald columnist reported that military families were having their hotel reservations for the upcoming Army-Navy game canceled to make room for migrants and homeless families.

But DeSantis got it wrong: While the state has been contracting with hotels and motels to house some of the more than 6,700 families in its overburdened emergency shelter system, wholly undocumented immigrants are not eligible for emergency services under the state’s “right-to-shelter” law.

Democratic Gov. Maura Healey said she’s “very distressed to learn that any veteran may have been moved from a hotel” and has instructed her veterans secretary, Jon Santiago, to reach out to anyone affected by the cancellations.

— Lisa Kashinsky

SPEAKER SEEKER — Several members of the Florida Republican delegation held a call at 2 p.m. Wednesday to discuss who should be the next speaker, POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy learned.

Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., who clashed with Gaetz on X Wednesday, has said he won’t support a new speaker unless members commit to reforming the motion to vacate rules.

CONFLICTING ACCOUNTS — “Trump says he didn't encourage Matt Gaetz to oust Kevin McCarthy as House speaker,” by NBC News: Gaetz told reporters that “My conversations with the former president leave me with great confidence that I did the right thing,” but Trump said he “did not” encourage Gaetz to oust McCarthy.

‘IDIOT’ — Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson calls out John Kelly: ‘He knew Mr. Trump’s record,’ by POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy: The Florida Democratic congressmember was reacting to Kelly’s recent statement to CNN, where he asserted that Trump made disparaging comments about military families and veterans behind closed doors — and publicly. Five years earlier, Kelly defended the former president and attacked Wilson. “For him to stand in the White House behind the podium and lie — he’s an idiot and he should be ashamed of himself,” Wilson said.

— Capitol bureau chief Mary Ellen Klas is leaving the Miami Herald and will start with Bloomberg Opinion next month as politics and policy columnist, still based in Florida.

— DeSantis policy chief in the Florida Office of Policy and Budget, Kaley Flynn, is joining Capital City Consulting firm as partner.

BIRTHDAYS: Former Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite …. Alan Cohen, businessman and former co-owner of the Florida Panthers ... Trey Price, former executive director of the Florida Housing Finance Corporation

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