By Lisa Kashinsky

With help from Kelly Garrity

POLL POSITION — Nikki Haley’s New Hampshire momentum is for real. A new poll of likely Granite State GOP primary voters shows it’s the former South Carolina governor — not Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — who’s making the strongest play for second place in the first primary state.

But Donald Trump remains immovable atop the field. The former president leads his Republican rivals with 49 percent support in a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY survey out this morning — putting him 30 percentage points above his closest rival.

That would be Haley, the former U.N. ambassador who notched 19 percent support in this survey. DeSantis is at 10 percent. No one else cracked double digits in the poll of 500 likely GOP primary voters that was conducted after the second debate and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points.

The poll captures three trends that have come to define the 2024 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire and across the early nominating states: Trump remains dominant, DeSantis is on the decline and Haley’s rise looks increasingly real.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley waves while arriving for a campaign event, on July 6, 2023, in North Conway, N.H. | Charles Krupa/AP Photo

And it’s against that backdrop that the GOP candidates will flood New Hampshire next week, starting with the former president on Monday and most of the rest of the field at a weekend cattle call hosted by the state GOP.

A real race for second place could energize Republicans on both sides of the state line at a time when it increasingly looks like the nation is headed for a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden that few voters want. The MassGOP is quite literally banking on it, as it looks to GOP hopefuls not named Trump to help replenish its depleted coffers as it tries to pay off its debt.

But DeSantis’ continued struggles in New Hampshire — now reflected across several recent surveys that have showed support for the Florida governor waning and Haley climbing — also illustrate how Trump alternatives who’ve been tailoring their pitches to his voters and to conservative-skewing Republican activists now have to figure out how to broaden their appeal beyond the party’s base.

That will be particularly key in New Hampshire and Massachusetts (yes, as a Super Tuesday state, we matter, too). Independents who make up the largest share of both states’ voters are poised to play a significant role in their GOP primaries without a big draw on the Democratic side.

The only major candidate who's making clear overtures across the aisle: former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose political operation is now going so far as to try to recruit Democrats to switch their party registration and play on the GOP side, my colleague Alex Isenstadt scooped. There’s definite, though likely limited, interest in Christie from the left, Mia McCarthy and I reported over the summer. Now New Hampshire just needs to schedule its primary.

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Maura Healey is getting ready to deliver on one of the centerpieces of her gubernatorial campaign.

The governor plans to sign the sweeping tax breaks lawmakers passed last week into law without any changes during a 1 p.m. ceremony at the State House alongside Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and Democratic legislative leaders.

TODAY — Healey also makes a “major announcement” at the Offshore WINDPOWER Conference at 8:30 a.m. at the Hynes Convention Center and visits the American Red Cross blood drive at the State House at 2:30 p.m. Driscoll speaks at MassDOT’s Moving Together Conference at 8:45 a.m. at the Sheraton Boston. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is on “Java with Jimmy” at 9 a.m. and attends an Italian flag raising at 10:30 a.m. outside City Hall.

Tips? Scoops? Polls? Email me: [email protected].

A message from Delta Dental of Massachusetts:

Delta Dental of Massachusetts is committed to educating communities around the state about how a healthy smile is a powerful thing. There are a multitude of connections between your oral and overall health, making it imperative to take care of your mouth. Healthy oral habits can help prevent more serious health concerns such as diabetes, heart disease, and depression later in life. Speak with your dentist or visit ExpressYourHealthMA.org for more information.

MCCARTHY MAKES HISTORY — Republican Kevin McCarthy is out as House speaker in a historic vote that’s rocked Capitol Hill. And he’s not going to try to regain his gavel, POLITICO’s ace Congress team reports.

The Democrats who helped seal his downfall aren’t mincing words as chaos yet again consumes their chamber.

As Rep. Seth Moulton put it on X, “Democrats bailed [McCarthy] out” on a deal to extend government funding. “[W]e weren’t going to bail him out again.”

Democrats said they just couldn’t trust the California Republican. “Through his duplicitous misuse of power, profound disregard for the needs of the American people, and disloyalty to anyone but himself, Kevin McCarthy has proven unworthy of presiding over the House,” Katherine Clark, the No. 2 House Democrat, who whipped votes against McCarthy, said in a statement after the vote. “Hakeem Jeffries is the only person in command of this Chamber, and House Democrats will be proud to cast yet another vote to put him in the Speaker’s chair.”

— “Goodbye, Columbus. Bill proposes Indigenous Peoples Day across Mass.,” by John L. Micek, MassLive: “Next Monday, Oct. 9, around two-dozen communities across the commonwealth will pause to celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day — and not Columbus Day. But if a Central Massachusetts lawmaker has anything to say about it, by the time Oct. 9, 2024 rolls around, the entire Bay State will officially celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day.”

— “Calls for changes to Bridgewater State Hospital come with dark details,” by Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald: “Bridgewater State Hospital is more like a prison than a mental health hospital, lawmakers are being told. … Legislation offered by state Rep. Ruth Balser, H2985 or An Act transferring Bridgewater State Hospital from the Department of Correction to the Department of Mental Health, would do exactly as its name suggests.”

GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

— “More than 1,200 families entered Massachusetts emergency shelter since August,” by Chris Van Buskirk, Boston Herald: “More than 1,200 families have entered Massachusetts’ emergency shelter system nearly two months after Gov. Maura Healey declared a state of emergency, according to data provided by the administration.”

— “Boston Chamber urges City Council to fund police intelligence to ‘quell recent violence’,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald: “The business community is urging the City Council to approve millions of dollars in grant funding for the Boston Regional Intelligence Center, saying that the money is needed to 'quell recent violence' that has put public safety at a 'crisis point.’... The City Council is expected to vote on funding the intelligence arm of the city’s police department on Wednesday, three weeks after rejecting three $850,000 grants set aside for the BRIC. A fourth $850,000 grant was later filed by the mayor.”

A message from Delta Dental of Massachusetts:

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Revere Acting Mayor Patrick Keefe is picking up support from one of his former mayoral rivals, City Councilor Gerry Visconti, in his bid for a full term atop the city. Keefe, who’s been serving as mayor since Brian Arrigo left in the spring to run DCR, faces former mayor and current Councilor Dan Rizzo in November.

AND THEN THERE WERE TWO — New Bedford voters set up a rematch of the city's 2019 mayoral election when they sent Mayor Jon Mitchell and Air Force veteran Richard Tyson Moultrie through to the November ballot yesterday. See the unofficial preliminary election results.

— “Weeks later, T chief still reviewing how Green Line extension got so bad, so quickly,” by Taylor Dolven and Daniel Kool, Boston Globe: “The T’s top official said Tuesday he’s still in the middle of reviewing why so much of the MBTA’s new subway expansion became so defective it’s been slowed to walking pace for safety. Three weeks after MBTA data show the agency began to impose extreme slow zones that stretched to cover more than a mile’s worth of Green Line extension track, T general manager Phillip Eng declined to share any new information about how the failure happened.”

— “Lynn ferry service extended through October,” by James Bartlett, Item Live.

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.

— “Leaving money on the table? Worcester doesn't have 'capacity' to plan events at Polar Park,” by Craig S. Semon, Telegram & Gazette: “Three city councilors are disappointed the city is ‘leaving money on the table’ by not cashing in on the allotted ‘city revenue days’ at Polar Park, part of the lease agreement with the Worcester Red Sox.”

— “Deal will keep 95-year-old artist Salvatore Del Deo in Provincetown dune shack, family says,” by WCVB.

— “New Hampshire trolls Massachusetts in lottery ad: ‘The no-good Massachusetts Tax Shark … stealing all our lottery winnings’,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: “As the Powerball jackpot continues to spike well above $1 billion, Bay Staters who live near the New Hampshire border may want to consider heading over the state line for a lottery ticket. That’s the message from the New Hampshire Lottery, which in a new ad trolls Massachusetts — warning of the prowling Bay State ‘Tax Shark’ that devours lotto winnings.”

A message from Delta Dental of Massachusetts:

Snoozing or losing…sleep? Snoring is a widespread problem, affecting 30-45 percent of the population. It can have social consequences, disrupting marriages and roommate relationships, but can also be negatively impacting your overall health. Snoring often prevents a good night’s sleep, leaving individuals waking up fatigued or more seriously, it may be a by-product of obstructive sleep apnea. The good news is, your dentist may be able to help.

Your dentist can help provide you with a wide array of plastic appliances, similar to mouthguards or orthodontic retainers, which can be worn while sleeping and assist with snoring. Some appliances reposition the lower jaw forward which, as a result, helps maintain an open, unobstructed airway in the throat. Speak with your dentist for more information on how to alleviate snoring or visit ExpressYourHealthMA.org to learn more.

TRANSITIONS — Crystal Rountree will join Jumpstart for Young Children as CEO in January. Rountree is currently EVP and chief revenue and development officer at Teach for America.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Special Envoy for Northern Ireland and former Rep. Joe Kennedy III; Boston Mayor Michelle Wu communications chief Jessicah Pierre, Max German, Miles Halpine, Eliza Adelson, Alexis Cantor, Will von Meister, Steve Picheny, Jon Tapper, Justin Dynia and DFER’s Mary Tamer. Happy belated to Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance’s Paul Craney, who celebrated Tuesday.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected].

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