By Brakkton Booker

With help from Ella Creamer, Rishika Dugyala, Jesse Naranjo and Teresa Wiltz 

POLITICO illustration/Photo by Getty Images

What up, Recast family! Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) triggers an effort to boot House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his post, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) is under scrutiny for pulling a fire alarm and California’s newest senator is sworn in today. First, though, we focus on the diversity distress at the Democratic National Committee. 

When Democratic National Committee officials gathered last month in Washington, D.C., the big concern was how the Party would handle the scheduling of its contentious New Hampshire primary.

They punted on that issue, as was expected, but at the very end of the meeting, one of the committee's more senior members, in a little-noticed comment, signaled alarm on a potentially larger problem brewing: The DNC is having difficulty ensuring that its slate of Delegates was hitting its internal diversity metrics.

“I keep looking at these diversity goals in big states like New York, like California. And, for some reason, whether it’s the African American community, Black community, the LGBTQ+ community, or Hispanic community, [the] numbers continue to decrease,” Donna Brazile told her colleagues at a recent committee gathering in Washington, D.C.

“It raises a red flag in my judgment,” she tells POLITICO in a follow-up interview about the delegate plans. “And then I try to find out what the hell is it.”

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At issue here is the heightened concern that the delegates the party may end up sending to the convention next year won’t be as diverse as some in the party think they should be.

It very well could be a byproduct of the headwinds President Joe Biden’s reelection faces as it hemorrhages support among Black and Latino voters — key voting blocs he needs if he wants another four years in the White House.

A quick refresher: The Democrats’ convention delegates officially select the party’s nominee at the convention. In many cases they are elected by voters during the state primaries or caucuses ahead of the Democratic National Convention.

The DNC calculates its diversity goals using a complex formula that accounts for eligible voters from seven targeted groups: Black Americans, Latinos, Asian American/Pacific Islanders, Indigenous Americans, as well as those with disabilities, those who identify as LGBTQ and young voters, classified as 35 and under.

Using public data, like the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the DNC also factors in individual state party registration figures and how well those party-affiliated voters turn out to vote in primary elections. From there, the DNC provides suggested goals for individual state parties to meet. The state Democratic parties then submit their delegate diversity plans to the DNC for approval.

Demographics shifts may account for why there are changes in some of the state’s diversity delegate targets.

For instance, in a memo laying out the California Delegate Selection Plan for 2024, posted to the party’s website, the proposed number for Black delegates is 12 percent — that’s roughly double the percentage of African Americans in the state, according to the census. It translates into California sending roughly 60 Black delegates to next year’s convention in Chicago.But in 2012, for then-President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign, the state’s delegation was 20 percent Black, or 122 delegates.

California delegates react as President Barack Obama is renominated for president at the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C. | Charles Dharapak/AP Photo

From 2010 to 2020, the state’s Black population dropped by roughly 45,000 and the white population dropped by 1.2 million. By contrast the Latino population has exploded in California by more than 1.5 million people, prompting the DNC to propose the share of Latino California delegates should increase from roughly 29 percent to 43 percent, which is in line with state’s census figures.

While their work is done largely away from the televised production of the nominating convention, delegates also function as a pipeline for the party to help recruit and maintain relationships with its most active members.

Disturbing trends are on the minds of many party insiders. Take, for instance, two recent polls, one by CBS News and another by Quinnipiac University. Both found Biden’s support in the low 70s or 80s among Black voters — a drop from the 91 percent who voted for him in 2020. His numbers with Hispanic voters are worse. In the 2020 election, Biden enjoyed a 28-point margin with Latino voters. Those same recent polls show his support down to a single-digit advantage.

At a time when Democrats are seeking to showcase their diversity as a calling card and a main point of differentiation with Republicans, the inability to hit their own DEI metrics could hamper those relationships. It also, insiders worry, could end up being a big embarrassment.

Biden speaks during a reception for Hispanic Heritage Month, Sept. 30, 2022, in the East Room of the White House. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

“We were kind of looking at each other, like, ‘Hey, this number seems to be going in the wrong direction here,’” says Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist who worked on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. She is also a member of the committee and was present at the September meeting.

“It seemed like the numbers for this cycle in some of the states [are] lower than from last cycle,” says Cardona, who added that DNC officials are still “peeling that onion” to get a fuller understanding of how deep the issue is.

The increased competition from Republicans for the Latino voters may complicate Democratic efforts to woo delegates in the future. Many Democrats point to the party’s poor performance among Latinos in Florida and Texas in the most recent midterms as evidence the party has to improve both its messaging and its recruitment efforts.

DNC officials are still in the process of approving delegation proposal plans for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Officials tell POLITICO that there is no way to ensure states are meeting their diversity benchmarks because most delegate elections aren’t until next year.

So how diverse the convention delegation will be is still unknown.

It goes without saying, but we’ll most certainly keep an eye out to see how this delegate selection process plays out.

All the best,
The Recast Team

THE SENATE’S NEWEST MEMBER

EMILY's List President Laphonza Butler speaks during a June 23 event in Washington. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

Politics waits for no one, especially when one party — in this case, the Democrats — have a razor-thin governing majority that shrank to 50-49 with the passing of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Ca.), who died at the age of 90 last week.

Today, California’s next senator, Laphonza Butler, 44, is expected to be sworn in by the last Black woman to serve in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the U.S. Capitol. Butler also served as an adviser to Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign.

Butler, who replaces the trailblazing Feinstein — the longest-serving woman as well as the Golden State’s longest-tenured senator — is breaking ground in her own right: She will be the state’s first openly LGBTQ senator.

She will be the lone Black woman currently serving in the Senate — and only the third one to do so ever.

In accepting the appointment from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Butler, who began serving as the head of the fundraising juggernaut EMILY’s List in 2021, said she was “honored by his trust in me” and added she would do her best to honor the legacy of the late Feinstein.

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Speaking to reporters on Monday, Newsom was asked if Butler was his initial choice or whether he’d considered appointing anyone else.

“She’s the only choice,” he said, given the state of politics at play: GOP-led states banning books, dictating how history is taught in classrooms and leading what he characterized as an “assault on the LGBTQ community.”

“She’s the best choice and I cannot be more blessed that I was able to make it,” Newsom added.

Butler’s selection also fulfills a promise Newsom made after Harris left her seat to serve as Biden’s vice president. In 2021, the governor selected Sen. Alex Padilla to replace Harris. He later vowed that if another opportunity presented itself, he would appoint a Black woman to the Senate.

Butler will serve the remainder of Feinstein’s term, which expires in early 2025.

Some are questioning her eligibility to represent California, since Butler is currently living in Silver Spring, Md., just outside of Washington, D.C., where EMILY's List is based. But others argue the issue is overblown. Newsom said that since Butler has maintained a residence in the state, all she needs to do is to change her voter registration back to California.

“Butler has spent many years delivering results for Californians as a labor leader and University of California Regent. She moved to Maryland to become the head of Emily’s List — fighting to elect pro-choice women across the country,” says Tony Hoang, executive director of Equality California, who supports Butler’s appointment.

Hoang adds: “It is reassuring to see the Governor take the necessary steps to fill the representation gaps that we see at a Congressional level.”

What is unclear is whether she will enter the tight Senate contest to run for the full six-year term. Three current House members, Reps. Katie Porter, Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee, are campaigning for the job, among others.

Lee, who is Black, originally sought to fill the vacancy herself. But Newsom rebuffed her efforts, saying he didn’t want to influence an ongoing campaign. Lee offered Butler her well wishes and said she looked forward to working with her after she’s sworn into office.

ICYMI @ POLITICO

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is seen in an elevator at the U.S. Capitol Sept. 7, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Scott’s Last Stand? — Presidential hopeful Tim Scott, whose campaign has yet to catch fire, is in danger of missing next month’s GOP debate unless his polling numbers improve. But those in Scott’s camp say he’s still a bankable candidate, reports POLITICO’s Natalie Allison.

Gaetz’s Ouster Moves — So Rep. Matt Gaetz (no surprise here), after publicly berating House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for working with Democrats to keep the government open, has kick-started the process to remove McCarthy from power. Our homies over at Huddle break down how it all will shake out.

RFK Preps Party Switch — A poll by American Values 2024 PAC is the strongest indication yet that presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will leave the Democratic Party and launch an independent run. POLITICO’s Brittany Gibson has more.

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