The White House is turning its attention to Virginia, where Republicans have a shot at taking full control of the state legislature for the first time in a decade. A GOP sweep this November would set the stage for a broader rollback of Virginia’s climate policies that started when Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin took office nearly two years ago, writes Scott Waldman. It could also be a bellwether of other state elections — most of which take place in 2024 — offering both parties a chance to test their campaign strategies and messages. President Joe Biden recently announced that the Democratic National Committee would invest an additional $1.2 million into Virginia’s race, bringing the total to $1.5 million — which is 15 times what the DNC spent on the state in 2019. The Republican National Committee has yet to match Democrats’ investment (likely because Youngkin’s PAC drew in $6 million in the second quarter alone), but both parties are expected to attract millions more over the next month. “The stakes have never been higher,†Biden said at a campaign reception in McLean, Va., just outside Washington. “The one place we made a mistake the last 20 years, in my view, is putting much more emphasis on the federal legislature than on the state legislature.†Climate policies on the line
Youngkin has spent his first two years in office rolling back as many state climate policies as he can without full control of the legislature. He withdrew from a state coalition called the U.S. Climate Alliance, blocked a proposed Ford electric vehicle battery manufacturing facility — and now wants to pull out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. Former Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring had determined that the governor can’t exit the cap-and-trade program without legislative approval, and environmental groups are suing to block the withdrawal. A GOP landslide would all but ensure Virginia’s exit. GOP oddsÂ
Youngkin is one of the most popular governors in the country. But several factors could work against a GOP takeover, University of Virginia elections expert J. Miles Coleman told Scott. With a Republican-controlled legislature, Youngkin would have a chance to fulfill his promise of enacting a 15-week abortion ban, which voters largely oppose. Continued Republican infighting on Capitol Hill also threatens a government shutdown next month — an important issue for a state where many federal workers reside. And Democrats could succeed in activating young voters, who are more likely to be concerned about climate change than their peers. But this year’s election is shaping up to be even more unpredictable than usual — every seat in the 140-member state General Assembly will be on the ballot for the first time in four years. Republicans control the House of Delegates, while Democrats hold a tenuous 22-18 majority in the Senate.
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