By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

CAREFUL OUT THERE — Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) was carjacked at gunpoint last night outside his apartment building south of the Capitol, Sarah Ferris and Nick Wu first reported. Cuellar — who “was not harmed and is working with local law enforcement,” his office said in a statement — is the second lawmaker known to have been a victim of violent crime in D.C. this year.

Laphonza Butler speaks at a rally for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Nov. 5, 2022, in Lansing, Michigan. | Sarah Rice/Getty Images

BUTLER’S DILEMMA — Later today, LAPHONZA BUTLER will travel to the Capitol, stand across from her old boss and longtime ally, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, and be sworn in as the first Black LGBTQ person in the United States Senate, succeeding the late California icon DIANNE FEINSTEIN.

Then the hard part begins.

It’s not the votes or the committee work. It’s a momentous decision she will have to quickly make about her political future — one that could have serious and messy consequences from coast to coast: Will she run for reelection?

We spoke to multiple friends and political allies of Butler, a veteran of big-league Democratic politics, who all told us the same thing: Her appointment by California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM came as a surprise, and she is genuinely undecided on whether she will seek to serve past 2024.

It’s certainly not that she’s incapable: Butler rose to prominence through the labor movement in California, where she helped lead a winning campaign for a $15 minimum wage, then worked as a consultant and served on the University of California Board of Regents and on Harris’ presidential campaign before moving to D.C. to become president of EMILY’s List.

Her friends, however, said she’d never expressed an interest in serving in Congress — or any elected office, really.

“She's been more the person behind the person,” one told Playbook last night. “Once you get there, you may change your mind. But, at the same time, you can also get in there and say: ‘Oh, yeah, for sure, I don't want to do this.’”

Butler officially has two months to make up her mind: California’s filing deadline is Dec. 8, but even that is a stretch: If she runs, she might have the advantage of incumbency, but she’d be playing catch-up in just about every other way imaginable — particularly money.

The three Democratic lawmakers already in the race — Reps. BARBARA LEE, KATIE PORTER and ADAM SCHIFF — have already raised more than $30 million this year combined. Schiff responded to Butler’s appointment yesterday by announcing a monster $6.4 million quarter.

Those who know Butler say not to expect a rash decision, calling her thoughtful and deliberate. “She won't let someone force her into a decision that she's not ready to make,” said one person who served on the committee that selected her for the EMILY’s List post.

That decision definitely won’t be coming this week. Butler, a spokesperson told Playbook last night, “is focused on respecting and honoring Sen. Feinstein’s legacy and getting ready to serve the people of California in the Senate. Politics can wait.”

If only. The politicking has already begun, and some of the most sensitive maneuverings are already underway inside a group that Butler will soon be joining: the Congressional Black Caucus.

Up until this point, the CBC has been completely behind Lee — not only endorsing the veteran Oakland progressive through the caucus’s influential PAC, but openly lobbying Newsom for months to appoint the veteran Oakland progressive in the event Feinstein could not complete her term.

Now the caucus faces a situation where two of its members could be facing off, and while folks we spoke to say the caucus will do its damndest not to pit two Black women against each other, tensions are already emerging — particularly among a left-leaning bloc that views Butler’s resume (with stints with Uber and Airbnb) as too establishment-oriented.

In one particularly eyebrow-raising post, Rep. AYANNA PRESSLEY (D-Mass.) said this by way of congratulations: “I look forward to your partnership & to having two incredible Black women serve consecutively when we elect [Lee] as the next Senator from California.”

On the flip side, Lee has lagged Schiff and Porter in fundraising and polling, and without the boost of incumbency, she might have only a narrow path to victory in a sprawling, costly state — a point could lead Butler to take a more serious look at running.

“She's 44 years old; Barbara Lee is 33 years her senior,” a person familiar with the conversations inside CBC circles told Playbook. “You have to imagine that there are some pollsters from California who will … tell her: ‘If you really want a Black woman to stay in the Senate, you are the only one that can take on Adam Schiff.’”

But don’t expect any kind of open feud. The two potential rivals spoke yesterday, we’re told, and when Lee asked Butler if she planned on running, she said she hadn’t made up her mind yet.

If that changes and Butler moves toward a run, expect the awkwardness to abound. “I don't know how a caucus stands up and says we are actively going to work against a Black woman who at that point will be the incumbent,” said the person familiar. “But we can't take [the endorsement] back from Barbara, because she’s got it.”

Related read: “Newsom says his ‘incredible’ pick for Senate can run if she wants,” by Dustin Gardiner

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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Rep. Matt Gaetz declared on the Capitol steps that he is certain he has the five Republican votes he needs to oust Mccarthy — so long as Democrats don’t step in and save him. | Rachael Bade/POLITICO

LET THE GAMES BEGIN — Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) moved last night, as promised, to force a vote on Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s removal. As we laid out yesterday, McCarthy has till tomorrow to plan his next move, but we’re told by multiple leadership aides that things could come to a head as soon as early this afternoon with a motion to table — i.e., kill — Gaetz’s gambit.

Just moments after making his motion on a crowded but silent House floor, Gaetz declared on the Capitol steps that he is certain he has the five Republican votes he needs to oust McCarthy — so long as Democrats don’t step in and save him.

But the margins could matter, and the ultimate size of his cohort is in question, with predictions ranging from a half-dozen to as many as 20. Those publicly joining Gaetz so far are Reps. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.), ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.), BOB GOOD (R-Va.) and TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.), with another handful voicing sympathies.

A larger group of hard-liners, meanwhile, is signaling that they aren’t on board with Gaetz’s tactics — for now, at least. House Freedom Caucus Chair SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.), for instance, said he wouldn’t vote to oust McCarthy but didn’t exactly offer support, either: “Kevin has earned the situation that we have, in my opinion,” he said.

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are waiting for a cue from Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, who spent much of his Monday huddling with the leaders of caucuses and hearing out senior Democrats.

While some Democrats remain interested in extracting concessions from McCarthy, many more appear content to let McCarthy flail — a sentiment that has “only hardened” since this weekend, according to one senior Democratic aide. Among those publicly signaling that they’re in no mood to do McCarthy any favors are two moderate Blue Dogs — Reps. JARED GOLDEN (Maine) and MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ (Wash.), who have borne the brunt of the speaker’s prodigious campaign fundraising.

Jeffries and his leadership team are expected to weigh in after this morning’s 9 a.m. Democratic caucus meeting. The topic is so sensitive that members were told last night they will have to check their phones at the door in order to prevent (or, let’s be honest, delay) any leaks.

If Gaetz’s group remains small, it might take just a few Democratic absences or abstentions to bail McCarthy out. But even that scenario could be treacherous for the speaker: If he has to rely on Democrats, several Republicans told us, more could join the mutiny the next time Gaetz moves against him.

One more newsy nugget this morning: We’re told that a group of New York Republicans close with McCarthy has privately discussed pursuing a possible power-sharing agreement with Democrats should the House move to elect a new speaker.

The conversations can be best described as preliminary at best, according to a person familiar with the talks, but they are rooted in a real-life precedent: a cross-aisle accord in the New York state Senate where, over an eight-year span, a handful of Democrats sided with Republicans before they were decimated in the 2018 primaries.

Likely or not, that the thought has even crossed some Republicans’ minds underscores how much peril McCarthy is in right now. And such chatter — idle as it might be — also stands to inflame tensions inside the House GOP, where the vast majority believe a speaker needs to be elected solely by their own ranks.

Related read: “Your viewer’s guide to the McCarthy-Gaetz showdown,” by Katherine Tully-McManus and Daniella Diaz in Huddle

MEANWHILE IN WILMINGTON — “Hunter Biden Set to Be Arraigned Over Federal Gun Charges,” by NYT’s Glenn Thrush

APPALLING DETAILS — “Pentagon official charged with participating in dog fighting ring,” by WaPo’s Tom Jackman and Dan Lamothe

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On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up JAMES O’BRIEN’s nomination as assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m. Harris will swear in Butler as the newest senator at 3 p.m.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. and at noon will take up the Energy-Water appropriations bill.

3 things to watch …

1. What do you do with a problem like JAMAAL BOWMAN? First, the New York Democrat landed in hot water for pulling a fire alarm at the Capitol this weekend. Then yesterday, his office sent out talking points accusing Republicans of harboring “Nazis” inside their party, prompting an apology. Look for movement today on GOP efforts to punish Bowman for the fire alarm, including an expulsion resolution (not gonna happen) and one (possibly could happen) that would censure Bowman and boot him off committees.
   
2. Even though campaigns have another 12 days to file their reports, expect to see more Q3 fundraising totals trickle out in the coming days. Yesterday we saw Schiff counter news of Butler’s appointment by announcing a massive haul. This morning, our Alex Isenstadt and Ally Mutnick scoop that Ohio Republican BERNIE MORENO is reporting $4 million in receipts, most of it from his own pocket, for his bid to unseat Democratic Sen. SHERROD BROWN.
   
3. The Senate kicks off a two-day workweek with a bed-check cloture vote and a lone hearing, in the Judiciary Committee, on a bill aimed at battling the online trade in counterfeit goods. That means the typical “Senate Tuesday” — with lunches, pressers, etc. — has been punted till tomorrow before senators take Thursday off, with many traveling to San Francisco for Feinstein’s funeral.

At the White House

JOE BIDEN will receive the President’s Daily Briefing in the morning.

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TRUMP CARDS

John Kelly speaks during a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, June 29, 2017. | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

TOP TALKER — Former White House chief of staff JOHN KELLY officially confirmed some stunning details of comments Trump made as president about military veterans and service members, in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper. The retired general vouched for stories told in Jeffrey Goldberg’s explosive 2020 story in The Atlantic that Trump said Marines who died at Belleau Wood were “suckers” and those buried in Aisne-Marne American Cemetery were “losers.”

“A person who cavalierly suggests that a selfless warrior who has served his country for 40 years in peacetime and war should lose his life for treason — in expectation that someone will take action,” Kelly said of Trump. “A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators.” Kelly’s comments fit in with Trump’s history of disparaging prisoners of war, amputees and others; the Trump campaign did not respond directly with a relevant comment to Tapper.

More top reads:

• At the first day of Trump’s business fraud trial in New York, prosecutors alleged that inflated property valuations because he “wanted to get higher on the Forbes billionaires list and save a fortune on loan terms,” Bloomberg’s Erik Larson and Patricia Hurtado recap.
• BERNIE KERIK has been subpoenaed to testify in the first Fulton County, Ga., case about the effort to overturn the 2020 election, CNN’s Paula Reid and Zachary Cohen scooped.

CONGRESS

MARK YOUR CALENDARS — Sen. BOB MENENDEZ’s (D-N.J.) criminal trial on federal corruption charges has been scheduled for May 6, along with his wife and the other men charged in the case, per the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein. But delays are not uncommon, and the June 4 primary election could take place before Menendez has a verdict.

LIVES ON THE LINE — “U.S. State Dept slams Congress for failure to renew PEPFAR anti-AIDS program,” by Reuters’ Simon Lewis and Patricia Zengerle: It “sends a message that Washington is ‘backing down’ from its leadership on the issue, State Department Spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said on Monday.”

CRYPTO CRASH — “How SBF’s fall keeps rattling Capitol Hill,” by Declan Harty, Eleanor Mueller, Sam Sutton and Jasper Goodman: “The coming split-screen will test crypto’s lobbying influence after it spent much of last year trying to rehabilitate the industry’s image.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

Ukrainian servicemen prepare to fire at Russian positions from a U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer in Kharkiv region, Ukraine, on July 14, 2022. | Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo

WHAT HAPPENS NOW — Congress’ move to omit new Ukraine aid from the continuing resolution this weekend reflects the collapse of support for Kyiv among many Republicans. How long can U.S. assistance hold out without it? Pentagon coffers have $5.2 billion for the war effort — which is equivalent to roughly the past six months of weapons and other packages, WSJ’s Gordon Lubold, Lindsay Wise and Isabel Coles report. Officials think that this time, it might last just a few months, while other accounts have run dry or close to it. Ultimately, the potential damage to Ukraine is more long-term than immediate. But in a letter yesterday, the Pentagon warned that already resupplies are slowing down, AP’s Lolita Baldor and Tara Copp report.

But Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is eyeing the growing political divides on Ukraine with anticipation, officials say: The West expects Russia to start seeding more propaganda in the U.S. and Europe to drive up Ukraine skepticism, NYT’s Julian Barnes reports.

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2024 WATCH

Donna Brazile speaks during a DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, Dec. 2, 2022, in Washington. | Nathan Howard/AP Photo

CANARY IN THE COAL MINE? — The DNC is struggling to reach its diversity goals for delegates to next year’s convention, Brakkton Booker reports this morning. That means the faces of the party on one of the year’s biggest stages could be whiter than Democrats want. And more worryingly for Dems, it might signal that Biden’s support among voters of color writ large is indeed softening.

“It raises a red flag in my judgment,” says DONNA BRAZILE. She singled out California and New York in particular as not meeting their diversity goals, which aim to reflect the Democratic electorate in each state. The DNC declined to comment, but it has disputed some of the concerns, arguing that we don’t really know the delegate composition yet.

More top reads:

• Trump’s campaign last night called on the RNC to cancel upcoming debates so the party can focus instead on the baseless claim that Democrats are stealing the 2024 election.
• RON DeSANTIS appeared to make some little-noticed news at last week’s debate, AP’s Sara Burnett reports: He said he’d support a federal ban on abortion at 15 weeks. His campaign, however, claimed the statement was nothing new, “another example of the muddiness voters are encountering as they seek specific answers from Republicans regarding abortion policy.”
• Sen. TIM SCOTT’s (R-S.C.) team is trying to reassure donors that the South Carolina primary will be his moment to shine, Natalie Allison reports.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

THE REAL HUNTER BIDEN STORY — “Backroom battles between IRS agents, prosecutors in Hunter Biden tax case,” by WaPo’s Devlin Barrett and Jacqueline Alemany: “[I]nternal records, transcripts and interviews by The Washington Post tell a more complex story of an investigation hobbled by a growing sense of distrust between an IRS agent and a prosecutor, a relationship that began souring during the Trump administration. Along the way, Justice Department officials repeatedly insisted on senior level sign-off for investigative steps. Those approvals often came slowly if at all, raising suspicions among agents that prosecutors had little appetite for moving forward.”

SCOTUS WATCH — “An unexpected check on Supreme Court’s sharp move right: Justice Kavanaugh,” by the L.A. Times’ David Savage

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

IMMIGRATION FILES — “Pritzker presses Biden for more help as migrant buses double: ‘Illinois stands mostly unsupported against this enormous strain,’” by the Chicago Sun-Times’ Tina Sfondeles: “On a call with the White House on Sunday, the governor and Mayor BRANDON JOHNSON warned that Chicago could receive as many as 1,250 migrants a day.”

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