By Matt Berg

Corruption among Ukraine’s leaders is an issue that worries Biden administration officials far more than they’d care to publicly admit, according to a confidential U.S. strategy document. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

With help from Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil

Whether Ukraine can prove that it's fighting corruption well enough may be a deciding factor in Congress’ continued support for sending aid — and is increasingly becoming a White House focus.

Corruption among Ukraine’s leaders is an issue that worries Biden administration officials far more than they’d care to publicly admit, according to a confidential U.S. strategy document obtained by our own NAHAL TOOSI. The long-term plan lays out numerous steps Washington is taking to help Kyiv root out malfeasance and otherwise reform an array of Ukrainian sectors.

It also stresses that corruption could cause Western allies to abandon Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion, and that Kyiv cannot put off the anti-graft effort.

But the White House could be doing a better job at communicating the country’s efforts so far, said MAKSYM SKRYPCHENKO, president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a Ukrainian think tank.

Last month, he met with about 40 congressional offices on Capitol Hill, including members of the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs committees, he said, noting that most offices sympathetic to former President DONALD TRUMP didn’t accept his meeting requests.

“A recurring observation from the congressional offices was that the Biden administration is notably poor at effectively communicating Ukraine's progress” on corruption, he told NatSec Daily. “To be fair, they also struggle in communicating other matters, but given our focus on Ukraine, this is particularly concerning for me.”

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle told him they feel the corruption claims are overstated, he said — without naming any specific names, and that they can’t point to many major corruption cases. But, the lawmakers noted, it’s still undermining support for Ukraine in Congress.

The fact that corruption is a major topic right now is a bad sign for Ukraine’s supporters.

“It's important to keep pushing back against potential corruption, and [President VOLODYMYR] ZELENSKYY seems to be aggressive in doing that,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ MARK CANCIAN told NatSec Daily. But “talking about how much they are doing to reduce corruption implies that there is ongoing corruption.”

Not to mention, there have been several high-profile examples of corruption this year, such as Ukraine’s defense ministry coming under scrutiny amid war profiteering accusations in January, military recruitment chiefs being fired for stealing money and other illegal activities in August, and two top officials being implicated for embezzlement later that month.

Because of the feedback Skrypchenko received, his think tank is in the process of drafting a report outlining Ukraine's anti-corruption achievements since 2014. Congressional offices told him they either lack the info or don't have the time to wade through extensive reports from the State Department or USAID.

Many ordinary Ukrainians will likely welcome the Biden administration’s strategy because they’re tired of the endemic corruption in their country, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine WILLIAM TAYLOR told Nahal.

It’s all fine “as long as it doesn’t get in the way of the assistance we provide them to win the war,” he said.

That’s true among Ukranians on the frontlines, like VOLODYMYR OMELYAN, a captain in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the country’s former minister of infrastructure, who believe that Kyiv needs to get rid of its dirty laundry — or risk losing more lives.

“We are furious that some of our leaders prefer to cheat and steal when we die on the battlefield,” Omelyan told NatSec Daily. “We believe that Zelenskyy should change his camouflage to tie and suit and analyze what's going on around him with his team.”

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BIDEN SAYS IT’S OK: President JOE BIDEN is planning to call allies and reassure them that Washington will keep aid flowing to Ukraine after a government shutdown was narrowly averted this weekend, Bloomberg News’ JENNIFER JACOBS reports.

Allies phones could be buzzing as soon as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Some $6 billion in military aid to Kyiv was pushed aside as Congress passed a continuing resolution to keep the government running, causing concerns among allies.

Biden’s push tracks with the White House’s announcement today that Washington will be sending another aid package to Ukraine soon, our own LARA SELIGMAN and KELLY GARRITY report. The latest aid package will come later this week, a U.S. official told them.

News of the imminent calls comes as the European Union’s foreign affairs ministers and chief diplomat JOSEP BORRELL met with their Ukrainian counterparts in Kyiv today, a sign of Ukraine’s strengthening ties to the bloc, our own JAKOB HANKE VELA and LAURA HÜLSEMANN report.

Usually, it’s Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA heading to Brussels or dialing in. The EU’s Foreign Affairs Council going to Kyiv shows that Ukraine “is becoming a member of the European Union, the process is taking place right as we speak and hold these meetings," Kuleba told Jakob and Laura.

There's hope from Ukrainian officials that the talks today yield tangible results. In particular, Kuleba mentioned the European Peace Facility — the pot of money that finances weapons contributions for Ukraine, and which needs an urgent refill as Kyiv fends off Russian troops.

A PLAN FOR NIGER: Algeria’s foreign ministry announced that Niger’s military junta has accepted an offer from Algiers to mediate a return to civilian rule and implement a six-month transition plan, our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL writes in.

“The acceptance of this Algerian initiative reinforces the option of a political solution to this crisis,” the Algerian foreign ministry said in a statement.

The Algerian mediation offer comes as diplomatic efforts from the Economic Community of West African States and other African multilateral organizations have failed to dislodge the military junta, which ousted President MOHAMED BAZOUM in July. It also comes as other powers, including the U.S. and France, have scaled back their military and diplomatic presences in the Sahel country, which had previously been a stalwart ally in the fight against African jihadist groups.

IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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EASY ON CHINA? GOP presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY accused the Biden administration of being soft on China due to Washington’s reliance on Beijing, citing the spy balloon incident earlier this year as a prime example.

“If that were a Russian spy balloon flying over our homeland, we'd have shot it down in an instant & ratcheted up sanctions. But we didn't because we depend on China,” Ramaswamy tweeted today.

He further called for “economic independence” from China and restated his intent to break up Moscow and Beijing’s relationship if he’s elected president. The tech entrepreneur’s campaign has beefed up its anti-China rhetoric in the past month, unveiling a plan to combat the adversary shortly before the candidate came under scrutiny for his recent ties to Beijing.

ICYMI — Haley digs again at Ramaswamy over TikTok by our own DAVID COHEN

HELP WANTED, BADLY: A report out today found a majority of cybersecurity teams globally are understaffed, and half of all security leaders have job openings on their teams for non-entry level roles, our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity report.

That’s according to a state of cybersecurity survey from the Information Systems Audit and Control Association, which also found that 62 percent of respondents believe organizations underreport cybercrime, suggesting the cyber threat landscape is much more severe than realized.

But it’s not just a hiring gap — there’s also a growing skills gap. The biggest area of concern is in soft skills, like being an effective communicator, flexibility and leadership traits, at 55 percent.

Read: EU should ban spyware, Russian exiled journalist says by our own ANTOANETA ROUSSI

GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

MATH IS HARD: Over the past month, we’ve seen some wildly different numbers about how much total aid Washington is giving Ukraine. The Center for Strategic and International Studies says it's $135 billion, The Washington Post wrote over the weekend that it’s around $60 billion, POLITICO and others have written that it’s more than $100 billion.

That’s because the smaller number (currently $73 billion in aid) is often cited from the Kiel Institute, which tracks only funds that have been delivered directly to Ukraine, CSIS’ Cancian and the Council on Foreign Relations’ JONATHAN MASTERS told NatSec Daily. Higher estimations show the total Ukraine-related packages requested by the White House, which include funds for American forces, aid to NATO allies and other things that don't appear in the Kiel database, they said.

“The divergence in dollar figures reported by various outlets likely muddles the debate to an extent, particularly when you're talking about tens of billions,” Masters said, adding that he prefers the Kiel Institute’s data because it clearly compares U.S. aid to other countries’ assistance.

Neither figure is better or more accurate — it’s a matter of preference: “I think the appropriations total” — the higher figure — “is a better number because it captures all of the U.S. efforts as a result of the war in Ukraine,” he said.

Cancian recommended outlets and think tanks, if they use the larger number, describe it as something like "U.S. efforts as a result of the war in Ukraine” instead of “U.S. aid to Ukraine.” Masters also called on outlets and think tanks to be clearer in defining how they came to a number.

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN: Lawmakers succeeded in not letting the government shutdown over the weekend, but that was just one hurdle. Now, Congress will spend the rest of the year tussling over aid to Ukraine, and it isn’t gonna be pretty.

Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL and other members of the Senate’s bipartisan pro-Ukraine coalition are trying to reassure the U.S. ally that help won’t stop — even after a bruising GOP confrontation over keeping the government open snuffed out billions in immediate new aid, our own BURGESS EVERETT and URSULA PERANO report.

But for that group, which has served as a bulwark against growing House Republican opposition to continued aid, the past week has been a rude awakening. Senate leaders are now looking for a way to ensure continued military assistance to Ukraine.

The next three months are critical, more than a dozen lawmakers and aides in both parties told Burgess and Ursula, and Republicans are arguing that the best shot at delivering Ukraine the weapons it needs will require a single funding bill that can last through the 2024 election, avoiding a series of protracted battles that could sap momentum.

“It’s obvious that there’s some fatigue. And so my own view is we need to do it one time,” said Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas). “We don’t want to do this again every three months.”

CHEERS FOR WITHHOLDING EGYPT AID: Fifteen democracy and human rights groups applauded the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s public support for placing a hold on U.S. aid to Egypt amid former Chair Sen. BOB MENENDEZ’s (D-N.J.) corruption charges.

“This decision is a needed first step both to hold the Egyptian regime accountable for its egregious human rights violations and to maintain public faith in Congress,” the groups wrote in a joint statement on Sunday.

BATTLE OF THE MEMES: SpaceX billionaire ELON MUSK and Ukrainian media outlets traded blows over the weekend in a very childish, 21st century type of way: using the “vein-popping guy” meme format, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports.

“When it’s been 5 min and you haven’t asked for a billion dollars in aid,” Musk tweeted Sunday, which accompanied Zelenskyy’s head attached to a famous photo of an agitated schoolboy, who — according to the meme’s etymology — was in a classroom and desperately trying to hold in flatulence.

Ukrainian media outlets joined the anti-Musk revolt that followed, with top publication Ukrainska Pravda posting the same meme, but with Musk’s face photoshopped in, saying: “When’s it’s been 5 minutes and you haven’t spread Russian propaganda.”

Musk has had a troubled relationship with Ukrainians and the country’s administration since Russia’s invasion, and as the owner of SpaceX, which provides Ukraine with critical satellite operations, the disputes have potential to cause Musk to reconsider how much he wants to help.

— Former Undersecretary of Defense COLIN KAHL is joining the Brookings Institution’s Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy and Technology as their Sydney Stein, Jr. scholar in residence.

— DYLAN WILLIAMS, longtime chief lobbyist for J Street, will be joining the Center for International Policy as vice president for Government Affairs.

— HARRY KAZIANIS has rejoined the Center for the National Interest as senior director of national security affairs and will serve as executive editor of its publication, The National Interest. He was previously a political consultant and senior director of Korean Studies at CSIS.

— BENJAMIN PEARL is joining Foreign Policy for America as a communications associate. He’s a recent George Washington University graduate and interned with Sen. ANGUS KING (I-Maine).

— MARTIN INDYK and ZEID RA’AD AL HUSSEIN, Foreign Affairs: What a Saudi-Israeli deal could mean for the Palestinians

— ISABEL COLES, The Wall Street Journal: How Ukraine tricks Russia into wasting ammunition

— JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: Kosovo attack: Who benefits?

— PunchBowl News, 9 a.m.: A discussion on national security and foreign policy with Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.)

— The Brookings Institution and the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, 9:30 a.m.: De-risking the economic relationship with China: views from the Indo-Pacific

— The Middle East Institute, 11 a.m.: Turkey's post-election dynamics: political direction, economic challenges, and foreign policy strategy

— The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: A book discussion on "Russia's Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity

— The Cato Institute, 1 p.m.: A book discussion on "How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy"

— The Institute of World Politics, 1 p.m: Rising authoritarianism and erosion of democratic institutions in Central America

— The Brookings Institution, 2 p.m.: Violent crime in South America

— The Associated Press and Georgetown University Institute of Politics and Public Service, 4 p.m.: A discussion with former Vice President MIKE PENCE on national security

— The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: The U.S. Navy leading the way in cybersecurity, zero trust framework

— The United States Institute of Peace, 6 p.m.: Bridging past and future: a Vietnamese conversation

— Rice University's Baker Institute, 7 p.m.: Public Policy's Shell Distinguished Lecture Series event with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who will soon be ousted for corruption, we hope.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who has never stolen a dime in his life.

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