By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

MADAME SENATOR — EMILY’s List President LAPHONZA BUTLER will be named California’s junior senator later today by Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM, Chris Cadelago scooped last night. The appointment fulfills Newsom’s pledge to appoint a Black woman to succeed DIANNE FEINSTEIN, and she will also be the first openly LGBTQ person to represent California in the Senate. Newsom’s announcement

What’s ahead … “[A]n adviser to the governor, ANTHONY YORK, told POLITICO that Newsom is making his appointment without putting limitations or preconditions on his pick running for the seat in 2024. That means Butler could decide to join the sprawling and competitive field of Democratic contenders seeking to succeed Feinstein, with special elections now layered on top of the March primary and November runoff.”

One hiccup … “Butler is registered to vote in Maryland but will switch her registration to California.”

Getting to know you … Butler spent nearly two decades at the Service Employees International Union, including a long stint as leader of its California organization before working as a consultant and leader of Airbnb’s policy operation. She was named EMILY’s List president in 2021. Watch a bio video from that announcement

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) speaks with reporters outside the Capitol Sept. 30, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE BATTLE FOR THE GAVEL ­— Today, Capitol Hill lurches from one showdown to another — pivoting from a narrowly averted government shutdown to the most serious attempt in a century to remove a House speaker. Our Sunday began in an ABC News green room with Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), the mastermind of the effort to oust KEVIN McCARTHY, and ended with us working the phones to bring you the very latest answers to the questions that will be driving the week ahead.

HOW MUCH SUPPORT DOES GAETZ NEED, AND HOW MUCH DOES HE HAVE?

It only takes one member to force a vote on vacating the speakership, but winning that vote means winning a majority of those present and voting on the relevant motion — most likely, a motion to table, or effectively kill, the effort.

Typically, in matters involving the election of a speaker, you can expect the minority party to vote to install their own speaker (i.e., to dump McCarthy). That might not be the case here, and we’ll get into that in a moment. But at a minimum, Gaetz will need enough members to cover the margin of the GOP’s majority, which is five votes.

Republicans we’ve spoken to think Gaetz probably has those votes. Rep. ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.) is openly backing the idea. Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) told Olivia Beavers she’s “open-minded right now.” And Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.) polled his followers on X about whether McCarthy should keep his job.

McCarthy allies are also closely watching GOP Reps. DAN BISHOP (N.C.), LAUREN BOEBERT (Colo.), KEN BUCK (Colo.), RALPH NORMAN (S.C.), and MATT ROSENDALE (Mont.). Some believe the group could snowball into the mid-20s, though most in leadership are skeptical that will happen.

WHAT’S GAETZ’S PLAN TO GROW HIS POSSE?

Gaetz and his allies will argue that Republicans can’t count on McCarthy to draw a hard line in long-term spending negotiations with Democrats — which have now been punted to a pre-Thanksgiving deadline — because he proved over the weekend that he’s uncomfortable with shutdowns.

The Ukraine issue will also be crucial: Gaetz is claiming McCarthy cut a secret deal with Democrats this weekend, winning assistance in Saturday’s vote in return for promising to allow a future vote on billions of dollars of Ukraine aid. Such an agreement could potentially alienate a larger group of House Republicans, most of whom voted against Ukraine aid last week.

President JOE BIDEN himself appeared to give credence to the claim yesterday, though the White House won’t comment further and House Democratic aides we spoke to say they weren’t party to any agreement. McCarthy’s office said only that the House will “ensure any request for further aid to Ukraine is matched with a sound strategy and accountability” and with provisions to address the southern border.

— Related read: “Inside the Senate’s looming showdown over the future of Ukraine,” by Burgess Everett

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HOW IS McCARTHY RESPONDING?

So far, with bluster of his own. McCarthy insisted on TV yesterday that he’s ready for a fight: “If [Gaetz is] upset because he tried to push us in a shutdown and I made sure government didn’t shut down, then let’s have that fight,” he said on CBS “Face the Nation.”

McCarthy allies are marshaling forces inside and outside the Capitol, trying to isolate Gaetz and accuse him of working with Democrats to remove the speaker. “Matt Gaetz is a charlatan,” tweeted Rep. LARRY BUCSHON (R-Ind.), in one example of a rank-and-file Republican lashing out. They’re also hoping to exploit cracks inside of the hard-right bloc, with plenty of members of the House Freedom Caucus — such as Rep. DEBBIE LESKO (Ariz.) — publicly expressing exasperation with Gaetz’s antics.

Conservative talk show host MARK LEVIN is also on a rampage against Gaetz — blaming his faction, not McCarthy, for the spending punt: “They rant and rave without a plan and without a real objective and now we get this 45 day CR. THEY did this.”

— Related read: “Will Donald Trump Save Kevin McCarthy From a Far-Right Coup?” by the Daily Beast’s Zachary Petrizzo

WHAT ARE DEMOCRATS THINKING? 

Now for the big question driving the week. There’s plenty of speculation that Democrats might help step in and help save McCarthy’s gavel. But in conversation after conversation with Democrats yesterday, we heard nothing but scorn for McCarthy.

The party is still smarting that McCarthy refused their pleas to give Democrats a mere 90 minutes to read the CR text on Saturday. And they were downright disgusted to see McCarthy blame their party for the shutdown brinkmanship on “Face the Nation” yesterday — just hours after they put up votes to help him pass the CR.

“It was an astonishing show of bad faith,” one senior Democratic aide told us. “The dumbest political move I’ve seen in a long time,” one Democratic lawmaker agreed. “You need us, you fucking idiot!”

Beyond that, Democrats have massive trust issues with McCarthy — particularly after he reneged on the budget caps deal he struck with the White House: “He’s created this situation, entirely of his own making. where he doesn't have the benefit of the doubt,” another top Democratic aide added.

— Related read: “‘Adopt Kevin or ditch him’: McCarthy’s speakership now at the mercy of Dems,” by Olivia Beavers and Nicholas Wu

SO WHAT DO DEMS WANT?

Despite their fury at McCarthy, Democrats spent the weekend texting and calling each other to discuss how to handle the situation — and swapping wish lists of possible concessions they could extract.

Beyond demanding an end to Biden’s impeachment, some Democrats have floated reallocating committees to give Democrats more seats, giving Democrats equal representation on the House Rules Committee, not to mention Ukraine aid.

One Democratic lawmaker told us concessions would be aimed at sidelining the House’s hardcore MAGA faction and “stopping this cycle of absurdity” so the House can function in a bipartisan manner.

One thing that’s not negotiable: Forcing McCarthy to stick to the spending caps deal he inked with Biden in May. That, Dems say, isn’t a concession, it’s a given.

CAN DEMS STICK TOGETHER?

Extracting any concessions will require Democrats to unify around a strategy, and it’s a major test for Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES. McCarthy potentially needs only a couple of dozen Democrats voting present or simply not showing up to vote to save his skin.

Already House Democratic leaders are emphasizing the need to act in unison, with Minority Whip KATHERINE CLARK (D-Mass.) telling her caucus that they will discuss the matter before any vote to oust McCarthy. The message of the “Dear Colleague” letter was clear: No freelancing.

— Related read: “Gaetz’s plan to oust McCarthy meets chilly Dem reception,” by Axios’ Andrew Solender

HOW EXACTLY WILL ALL THIS WORK?

There’s lots of rules surrounding the process for removing a speaker, but not a lot of precedent. The so-called “motion to vacate” (it’s actually a resolution filed with the House) has only been used once in American history — when then-Speaker JOSEPH CANNON (R-Ill.) survived a 1910 ouster bid.

But here are the basics: Gaetz, or another member, would file a resolution to vacate the speakership and call it up on the floor as a matter of privilege — thus starting a two-legislative-day clock before it must come up for a vote. At any point in that stretch, McCarthy allies could move to table it.

If the tabling effort or other procedural motions fail, the question would come up for debate and an eventual vote. Were it to succeed, the process of electing a new speaker would then begin from scratch, with McCarthy free to run again — and again and again — in a potential reprise of what happened in January.

And if the vote to oust McCarthy fails, there’s no guarantee the drama ends there. Gaetz is vowing to keep trying over and over again, forcing the House to start each morning, he says, with “the prayer, the pledge and the motion to vacate.”

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

THE WEEK — Today: New York AG TISH JAMES’s civil suit against Trump Organization goes to trial in Manhattan. The Supreme Court begins its fall term. … Tomorrow: Jury selection begins in SAM BANKMAN-FRIED fraud trial. MIKE PENCE discusses national security and foreign policy at Georgetown University. … Wednesday: HUNTER BIDEN is arraigned on federal gun charges in Delaware. … Thursday: FAA administrator nominee MICHAEL WHITAKER testifies before Senate Commerce Committee. DNC holds fall meetings in St. Louis. … Friday: September unemployment figures released. … Saturday: Trump holds rallies in Waterloo and Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

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On the Hill

The Senate is in. The House is out.

3 things to watch …

1. Butler’s appointment raises one crucial and immediate question: Will she run for a full term in 2024? Watch how — and if — she chooses to answer it today. (ADAM SCHIFF, KATIE PORTER and BARBARA LEE certainly will be.) As Chris puts it: “It will be a major undertaking for her to vie for the seat. … California is prohibitively expensive to run in, with TV ads costing millions to air across major media markets. But Butler could be a formidable candidate if she chooses to be.”
   
2. Who wants a toehold in House Democratic leadership? Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) left his position as House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee co-chair yesterday as he explores a presidential primary bid against Biden, Axios’ Andrew Solender scooped, opening a spot in the junior leadership ranks. Rep. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS (D-Mass.) is an early name in the mix; expect some other balloons to float today.
   
3. With a decidedly un-senatorial schedule last week — seriously, votes on Friday and Saturday? — the Senate is taking the day off. When they return, they have a full deck of nominees ready for floor action: district judges SUSAN DeCLERCQ and BRENDAN HURSON as well as JAMES O’BRIEN as the State Department’s assistant secretary for European and Eurasian affairs.

At the White House

Biden will speak at 2 p.m. on the South Lawn to celebrate the Americans with Disabilities Act. Afterward, he’ll lead a Cabinet meeting, with VP KAMALA HARRIS participating.

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ALL POLITICS

California Gov. Gavin Newsom discussed his voracious consumption of conservative media. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP Photo

NOTABLE QUOTABLE — Newsom responds to a question from Semafor’s Max Tani about how his former marriage to KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE has shaped his view of conservative media: “I think for a lot of folks, they put a mask on when they go in there. And their face grows into it. That’s been my observation.” That’s just one of many takes from the voluble Newsom in Tani’s fun story about the governor’s voracious consumption of Fox News and other conservative media. Republican politicians “are getting all the airtime, they’re polluting the airwaves with a lot of bullshit,” he says. “And we have got to have a counteroffensive.”

WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN — In the first excerpt from his new SAM BANKMAN-FRIED book, “Going Infinite,” Michael Lewis has this astonishing anecdote in WaPo about the crypto billionaire’s political maneuverings in summer 2022: “[A]s the plane descended into Washington, he was exploring the legality of paying Donald Trump himself not to run for president. His team had somehow created a back channel into the Trump operation and returned with the not terribly Earth-shattering news that Donald Trump might indeed have his price: $5 billion. Or so Sam was told by his team.”

More top reads:

• Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. JOHN TEICHERT is jumping into the Maryland Senate race today as a Republican. His campaign site
• Rep. SUMMER LEE (D-Pa.) appears to be getting a primary challenger: BHAVINI PATEL, whose exploration of a bid was backed by pro-Israel advocates, has filed with the FEC.

TRUMP CARDS

HAPPENING TODAY — “As His Fraud Trial Begins, Trump Looks to Capitalize on It,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman: “The decision to show up voluntarily in court by Mr. Trump … underscores how personally aggrieved Mr. Trump feels by the accusations of fraud, as well as his own self-confidence that showing up will help his legal cause. … In some ways, the Trump campaign, which has seen his supporters galvanized by the criminal charges he’s faced, is trying to turn the civil case into something akin to a fifth indictment.”

In his own words … From Truth Social: “I’m going to Court tomorrow morning to fight for my name and reputation against a corrupt and racist Attorney General, Letitia James, who campaigned on “getting Trump,” and a Trump Hating Judge who is unfair, unhinged, and vicious in his PURSUIT of me.”

2024 WATCH

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. listens as he is introduced during the World Values Network's Presidential candidate series at the Glasshouse on July 25, 2023, in New York City. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

THIRD-PARTY DREAMING — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s super PAC American Values 2024 has conducted a poll to gauge his support as an independent candidate, “one of the strongest indications to date that the long-shot Democrat is set to announce a party affiliation switch,” Brittany Gibson reports this morning. Just as notably, the survey finds what many observers have predicted: that Kennedy’s presence in the race would actually hurt Trump more than Biden. (It finds the two frontrunners tied 38% compared to 19% for RFK, a way more robust result for him than independent polls have indicated.)

UP FOR DEBATE — “Ramaswamy campaign seeks to cut number of candidates in next GOP debate,” by Adam Wren: “VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s campaign is pushing the Republican Party to change the qualifying and debate format rules for the upcoming GOP presidential debate in Miami on Nov. 8, calling for only the top four polling candidates besides Donald Trump to participate and asking for a single moderator.”

MASOCHISTIC — “GOP presidential candidates are bashing California, and Republicans here love it,” by the L.A. Times’ Benjamin Oreskes and Faith Pinho in Anaheim

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Immigrants arrive to the United States after crossing the U.S.-Mexico border early on Sept. 29, 2023, in Eagle Pass, Texas. | John Moore/Getty Images

IMMIGRATION FILES — Illegal border crossings processed by the U.S. jumped last month to their highest levels of the year, reaching 210,000 in September, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez scoops. More than one-quarter were Venezuelans. And as fiscal year 2023 ends, DHS records show that total annual apprehensions of migrants along the U.S.-Mexico border topped 2 million — the second-highest number in history, behind only fiscal 2022.

Why is it so hard to stem illegal immigration? Marcela Valdes has an illuminating reality check in the NYT Magazine: In the long run, “barring a major reorganization of America’s immigration system, these problems are unlikely to improve.” That’s because two fundamental realities endure: Many American employers benefit from illegal immigration, and many immigrants are willing to risk penalties for the promise of a better life.

THE ECONOMY 

HEADLINES BIDEN WON’T LIKE — “Why a U.S. Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon,” by Bloomberg’s Anna Wong and Tom Orlik: “The bottom line: history, and data, suggest the consensus has gotten a little too complacent — just as it did before every US downturn of the past four decades.”

BACK IN THE SADDLE — “The ‘terrifying’ trade-offs millions of Americans face as student loan repayments resume,” by NBC’s Danielle Silva

JUDICIARY SQUARE

GARLAND’S RED LINE — On CBS’ “60 Minutes” last night, AG MERRICK GARLAND made clear to Scott Pelley that he sees the political independence of the Justice Department as sacrosanct. When Pelley asked what Garland would do if Biden told him to take action on Trump, Garland said: “I am sure that that will not happen, but I would not do anything in that regard … And if necessary, I would resign.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

WHAT RAND PAUL IS READING — “Leaked doc shows Biden admin is more worried about Ukraine corruption than it says publicly,” by Nahal Toosi: “A report obtained by POLITICO details specific plans to reform Ukrainian institutions and warns Western support may hinge on cutting corruption.” The document

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