By Kimberly Leonard

Republican presidential candidates (L-R), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron Desantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) participate in the first debate of the GOP primary season hosted by FOX News at the Fiserv Forum on August 23, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

Good morning and welcome to Debate Day.

Gov. Ron DeSantis didn’t hurt himself during his first Republican presidential primary debate a month ago in Milwaukee, and a plurality of voters in one poll even thought he won.

But it might not be enough to give the governor the boost he needs to clear the field with less than four months to go before the Iowa Caucuses and with former President Donald Trump’s substantial lead.

A couple of things will be unchanged tonight from the last debate. DeSantis will still be standing in the center of the stage — a place reserved for the top tier-candidates. And once again Trump won’t be there.

But DeSantis is in a weaker position than he was about a month ago, according to both national and statewide polls and signs of his diminishing stature in Florida. Few GOP voters mention the governor during the anti-Trump Republican Accountability Project’s regular focus groups, said Gunner Ramer, political director at the organization. He concluded that DeSantis had worked too hard to appeal to die-hard Trump voters instead of focusing on winning over the “Maybe Trump” or “Move on From Trump” voters.

“In doing so, he had to run to Trump's right in a way that undermined his best pitch: Electability,” Ramer said. “Tactical error from him.”

Ahead of tonight’s debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., the DeSantis campaign alerted donors that the “fundamentals” of the race were unchanged and that DeSantis would be the only candidate who could beat Trump and President Joe Biden, in large part thanks to fundraising and his record of conservative policy victories.

Tonight’s Fox Business debate gives DeSantis an opportunity to remind voters why there was so much hype about him a year ago and why he won reelection by historic margins in Florida. The pressure is high for him to deliver a show-stopping moment that gets everyone talking, according to multiple pre-debate coverage stories.

Voters and the political class will be watching to see whether and how he calls out Trump (or entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who could be seen as a Trump proxy and was at times the focus of the first debate), how he fights back when any rivals on stage go after him, how he works to appeal to the non-Trump base and which parts of his life and policy record he chooses to highlight.  

“DeSantis needs to do everything right from here on out, and at an A+ level,” said GOP strategist Liz Mair, who previously worked for the Republican National Committee. “That includes this debate.”

Point Bridge Capital CEO Hal Lambert, a DeSantis donor, put a bigger emphasis on winning the Iowa Caucuses, saying that would narrow the race down to Trump and DeSantis more than any debate could. If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he predicted, then he’ll likely win the nomination. Trump leads by double-digits in Iowa polling and even DeSantis’ campaign team has lowered expectations there.

“We didn’t have a Republican nominee named Herman Cain or Newt Gingrich,” Lambert said. “They both had breakouts after debates and then faded and they were late breakouts. Winning at the ballot is the key.”

— WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis is expected to be fundraising in California this week and tonight he’ll participate in the second GOP presidential debate.

What does DeSantis need to do in tonight’s debate to reclaim his spot as former President Donald Trump’s top rival? Send us your thoughts at: [email protected]

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FIRST DAY OF TRIAL — DeSantis top aide grilled over map that dismantled seat held by Black Democrat, by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout: The trial kicked off with a back and forth with Alex Kelly, the acting chief of staff for DeSantis who was the chief mapmaker who drew up the plan that ultimately netted the GOP four seats and helped them win back the U.S. House during the 2022 elections.

During his lengthy testimony, Kelly faulted past rulings by the Florida Supreme Court related to redistricting, questioned how the Legislature handled redistricting at times and made comments that appeared at odds with statements he made in his own depositions.

Kelly also insisted that the map that DeSantis has recently touted on the campaign trail as helping Republicans win the House last year was not drawn for “partisan” reasons or to help any incumbents — factors that are not allowed under Florida’s voter-approved anti-gerrymandering standards.

TODAY — Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis will host a IRS Accountability Roundtable in Doral, Fla., at 9 a.m. He’ll discuss how changes to the IRS will affect businesses in the state, including a new requirement for ticketing platforms to give the IRS information on users who sold more than $600 worth of tickets a year. Follow along on X.

INVESTIGATION — “Feds: Florida’s poor oversight of psychotropic meds put foster kids at risk,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Christopher O'Donnell: “The use of powerful psychotropic and opioid medications in Florida’s child welfare system is supposed to be strictly regulated and documented. But a federal audit of 115 records of children prescribed those medications selected at random by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services found lax record-keeping and multiple cases of child welfare workers failing to follow Florida regulations on psychotropic or opioid medication.”

NEW LAWS TO TAKE EFFECT THIS WEEKEND — They include a law that could allow convicted child rapists to face the death penalty, as well as another law increasing penalties for using guns in human trafficking. Jim Turner from the News Service of Florida has a rundown.

A GAMBLE — “Poker room operator asks court to halt Seminole Tribe’s sports betting deal,” by the Miami Herald’s Mary Ellen Klas: Several gambling companies have asked the Florida Supreme Court to invalidate the exclusive gaming agreement between DeSantis and the Seminole Tribe. The companies claim it illegally expands gambling in Florida because it should have been approved by voters in a statewide referendum.

NEW BAN — Florida just temporarily made it a felony to possess, sell and use tianeptine, a drug commonly known as “gas station heroin.” The drug got its nickname from being sold at gas stations and convenience stores, and because it causes opioid-like withdrawals after use, reports Brandon Girod of the Pensacola News Journal.

COMING BACK SLOWLY — “Florida school voucher money is flowing again, but delays persist,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Jeffrey S. Solochek: “Eighty-six percent of students receiving vouchers for special needs should have access to their money this week, said Scott Kent, a spokesperson for Step Up for Students, the organization that administers the vast majority of voucher applications in the state.”

SPECIAL TAX DISTRICT TO FINALIZE THE BUDGET — The board for the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District is meeting at 5:05 p.m. today to approve spending and cost cuts for 2024, for the district that surrounds Walt Disney World. Take a look at the agenda and follow along here live.

UTILITY BOARD — “DeSantis names 3 to join the new GRU board. None live in city limits as required by law,” by the Gainesville Sun’s Andrew Caplan: “The governor on Tuesday evening named James Coats IV, Robert Karow and Christopher ‘Eric’ Lawson — all registered Republicans — to the first-ever GRU Authority that will strip away Gainesville's control of its utility. Despite multiple requests by The Gainesville Sun over the past couple of months, DeSantis' office has refused to supply any records from applicants for the board in defiance of the state's public record laws.”

Iconic South Beach Clevelander Hotel. | Getty Images

LIVE VOCAL — “Miami Beach project tests limits of affordable housing law in Florida,” by WSJ’s Deborah Acosta: The proposed Clevelander high rise project on Ocean Drive in South Beach is facing opposition from local officials. It’s spurred by the Legislature’s bipartisan Live Local Act’s tax breaks, which are intended to create more affordable housing. Other projects like it in cities across Florida are facing similar resistance.

ARRAIGNED — “FDLE: Former Florida Coalition Against Domestic Violence CEO Tiffany Carr in custody,” by Florida Politics: Carr was turned herself in at the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office in North Carolina Tuesday after being charged with three felonies.

SUBTEXT — “FAU trustees move to prevent vice chair’s instant elevation if DeSantis removes board chair,” by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Anthony Man: “With no letup in the controversy surrounding the leadership of Florida Atlantic University, the school’s trustees voted to short circuit the automatic ascension of their vice chair if the board chair’s position were to become vacant. The move would prevent Vice Chair Barbara Feingold from automatically becoming the board’s leader if Board Chair Brad Levine leaves — or is removed by DeSantis.”

UN-BEAR-ABLE — “Florida sheriff asks for officials' help with bears: 'Get to work and get us a solution,'” by the Tallahassee Democrats’ Kinsey Crowley: Franklin County, Fla., has received tons of reports of bears breaking into people’s residences, and Sheriff A.J. "Tony" Smith has had enough. He went on Facebook Live to complain this week and said he’s ready to bring the matter to the governor, the Legislature and the Cabinet. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission did schedule a meeting with the Sheriff after the video aired.

Pull quote: “I mean, you got a bear at Disney World so you probably got bears everywhere," Smith said.

FREEDOM SUMMIT LATEST — The Republican Party of Florida has confirmed two additional presidential candidates for its Freedom Summit in Kissimmee, Fla., on Nov. 4: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. DeSantis and Trump are scheduled to attend. Other GOP candidates have also been invited and more speakers will be announced in the coming days and weeks.

VETERAN CANDIDATE — “Ron DeSantis is brandishing his military service. Do Republican voters still want that?” by WSJ’s Alex Leary and James V. Grimaldi: “A military career isn’t always a political winner. Trump won in 2016 while facing scrutiny over his Vietnam deferments and after attacking war hero John McCain. Neither Barack Obama nor Joe Biden served. George W. Bush endured questions over favorable treatment as he avoided serving in Vietnam by joining the Texas Air National Guard. Bill Clinton also avoided Vietnam. The last veteran in the White House was George H.W. Bush, who flew combat missions in World War II and received the Distinguished Flying Cross for bravery.”

INNOCENT UNTIL PROVEN GUILTY — “Marco Rubio doesn’t think Bob Menendez should resign,” by Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles: “The allegations against the Senior Senator from New Jersey are nasty (and) the evidence offered difficult to explain away,” Rubio posted on X. “But in America guilt is decided by a jury, not politicians in fear of their party losing a Senate seat.”

MIXUP — “Republican congresswoman used Russian fighter jet images in salute to U.S. Air Force,” by Raw Story’s Mark Alesia: “Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), who uses her status as a veteran of the U.S. Air Force to boost a hard-right, MAGA-fueled political career, wanted to wish her military branch a happy birthday.” She posted a celebratory graphic on her social media accounts with silhouettes of fighter jets — but they appear to be Russian, not American.

HE WAS JUST FEEDING THE BIRDS — “Florida man attacked by rabid otter on road to recovery,” by Channel 7 News: “The otter launched a sudden attack, causing him to trip and fall. The otter bit him 41 times on his legs, hands and arms.”

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz … Terry Spencer of The Associated Press

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