By Matt Berg, Joe Gould and Eric Bazail-Eimil

As SFRC chair, Sen. Ben Cardin is expected to continue his legacy as a fierce human rights advocate. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

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What a year this week has been for Sen. BOB MENENDEZ. And what a year this year is about to be for Sen. BEN CARDIN, who’s expected to take the reins and chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — again.

It’s the second time Cardin, a longtime Maryland senator who’s much more mild-mannered compared to his firebrand colleague, would step into the role due to corruption charges leveled at Menendez. Though Cardin plans to retire at the end of the term, it’s worth examining how he would steer the committee in the meantime.

"Anti-corruption, good governance and human rights have been his bread-and-butter issues for like 50 years in public service,” a former SFRC staffer told NatSec Daily, noting the irony of Menendez’s charges. “Those things don't bring home a lot of bacon, and they are not things that get constituents excited, but he really cares about this stuff.”

While Cardin is not a hard charger like Menendez, the pair share policy overlaps that buck the Democratic establishment. For example, Cardin, like Menendez, voted against the Iran nuclear deal. A senior Obama administration official told POLITICO at the time that “we never expected to get him.”

The Maryland Democrat was also a major proponent of using sanctions to keep foreign powers in line during the Obama administration, staunchly supporting legislation to punish Russian officials responsible for the death of tax lawyer SERGEI MAGNITSKY when the White House didn’t want to, the former staffer said.

But the Biden administration also has reason to celebrate the transition. A more conciliatory lawmaker, Cardin will likely be open to discussions on sensitive subjects, such as approving the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Menendez was the main roadblock to the Biden administration’s planned deal.

Over in Ankara, there’s already hope that a new face will switch things up.

"Menendez being out of the picture is an advantage,” Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN told reporters, per Reuters’ HUSEYIN HAYATSEVER and TUVAN GUMRUKCU. "Not just on the F-16s, but on all other issues Menendez and those with similar mindsets are carrying out obstructive actions against us."

(ErdoÄŸan also today linked the F-16 deal to his country's parliament giving a "final say" on Sweden's NATO membership bid.)

As SFRC chair, Cardin is expected to continue his legacy as a fierce human rights advocate. With the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in full swing, Armenian diaspora groups and their supporters see him as a potential ally amid genocide accusations against Azerbaijan — but they’re waiting to see what he does with the role, according to former Sen. SAM BROWNBACK (R-Kansas).

“I hope he’s not quiet about it,” Brownback, who served as ambassador for international religious freedom in the Trump administration, told NatSec Daily. “Or if he is, he’s over at the White House not saying things publicly, but beating on the table there saying, ‘you’ve got to do something.’”

That hits on the most obvious difference between the lawmakers: public image. It’s safe to say Cardin won’t make as many headlines as Menendez, and he certainly doesn’t live as lavishly.

"He lives a decently modest life. He drives his Toyota Camry from Baltimore," the former staffer said.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONCERNS: Top U.S. humanitarian aid official SAMANTHA POWER said she’s aware of “very troubling reports of violence against civilians” in the ethnic Armenian enclave of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports.

Power also complained Azerbaijan had blocked access to the breakaway region for international observers wanting to gauge the severity of the crisis. In the past week, nearly 20,000 people have fled — out of a population of some 100,000 — and fears are growing of ethnic cleansing.

Asked whether she agreed with warnings from Armenia’s Prime Minister NIKOL PASHINYAN that the exodus reflected “ethnic cleansing,” Power — a former scholar on genocide — declined to use the term.

However, she added “testimony” was already being gathered “from people who have fled violence, deprivation, and with the fear of living under the government of Azerbaijan.”

UKRAINE PAIN: Ukraine may have been premature in celebrating the death of Russian Adm. VIKTOR SOKOLOV, since he could still be alive, our own ALI WALKER reports.

Kyiv on Monday claimed to have killed Sokolov — the commander of Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet — in an attack on the port of Sevastopol last week. But today, Sokolov appeared, apparently alive and well, in video footage of a Kremlin defense meeting, published by Russian state-owned newswire RIA Novosti.

While the video couldn’t be independently verified, Ukraine’s military backtracked in a statement today: “Russians were forced to publish a response with Sokolov allegedly alive,” so it’s “clarifying the information” about the situation.

Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV blasted Kyiv for another battlefield development today: the arrival of M1 Abrams tanks and imminent delivery of Army Tactical Missile Systems from the United States.

"All this can in no way affect the essence of the [special military operation] and its outcome,” Peskov told reporters, per Reuters’ GARETH JONES. “There is no panacea and no one type of weapon that can change the balance of power on the battlefield.”

SINO-FILIPINO SPAT: Tensions are mounting between the Philippines and China as the pair spar over a contested shoal in the South China Sea, with both nations refusing to back down.

Beijing warned Manila to not “provoke and cause trouble” today, a day after a Filipino coast guard member posed as a fisherman in a small boat to cut a floating Chinese barrier at the shoal, Reuters’ NEIL JEROME MORALES reports.

"We have shown the world the Filipino people will not back down and we're still going to consistently carry out whatever is necessary for us to maintain our presence," Philippine coast guard spokesperson Commodore JAY TARRIELA told CNN.

Read: Tensions with China cross a new line in the South China Sea by The New York Times’ SUI-LEE WEE.

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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‘STRANGE THINGS HAPPENED’ ON 9/11: Is Democratic presidential candidate ROBERT KENNEDY JR. a 9/11 truther? He dodged the question in a recent appearance on journalist PETER BERGEN’s podcast released today.

In the interview, Bergen asked Kennedy whether he accepted the official explanation for the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, as established by the 9/11 Commission. Kennedy said that “strange things” occurred on that day and noted that it was odd that Building 7, which was next to the World Trade Center, collapsed despite not having been hit by any of the jets.

Bergen pushed back, noting that the 9/11 Commission found that Building 7 collapsed after being hit by debris from the towers. The host also pressed Kennedy on the degree of detail the commission went into in its investigation, recounting the hundreds of thousands of tips and interviews that were conducted.

“I haven't read the data myself,” Kennedy said. “And unfortunately for me, Peter, because it's made my life kind of difficult, is I don't always accept official explanations.”

The Kennedy campaign did not return NatSec Daily’s requests for comment.

GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

HACKING KYIV: Russian state-backed hackers reportedly aimed cyberattacks at Ukrainian law enforcement and media organizations in the first half of 2023, our own MAGGIE MILLER reported Monday (for Pros!).

That’s according to a report from Ukraine’s cyber agency, which shows a continued effort by Russian authorities to use cyberattacks to disrupt life in Ukraine or to gather intelligence, even as Ukrainian troops make headway in breaking Russian lines on the ground. It found that attempted major hacking incidents against Ukrainian organizations more than doubled from those recorded in 2022.

The report described a “sustained interest” in Ukrainian law enforcement agencies, which Ukrainian officials blamed on Russian hackers trying to obtain information on what evidence of war crimes the Ukrainian government has collected. Kyiv is gathering evidence to present to the International Criminal Court, including of cyberattacks.

SHUTDOWN’S ‘PROFOUND’ MILITARY IMPACT: Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH said today a government shutdown would harm military readiness and have “huge, profound impacts across the globe,” Matt reports.

With government funding set to run out, over 1 million military members and furloughed civilian employees are at risk of going without pay, Singh said on CNN, adding that a shutdown would send a dangerous message to Washington’s adversaries.

“If the U.S. government shuts down, China, Russia, North Korea, Iran — these are countries that are not shutting down, that are continuing their operations,” she said. “Any type of shutdown, any type of impact to our military and readiness, has huge, profound impacts across the globe.”

Read: The Pentagon’s abortion travel policy is not subject to a congressional vote to quickly overturn it, according to the Government Accountability Office, Punchbowl News reports.

DEFENSE BILL DANCE: The House returns to Washington today with the aim of finally debating its fiscal 2024 defense funding bill — if Republicans can muster the votes to do it, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

Lawmakers are expected to hold a procedural vote tonight to advance several funding bills, including Pentagon spending. Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY's attempts to pass the defense bill have been foiled in GOP infighting for weeks. In order to start the defense debate, he’ll need to flip at least some of the five GOP defectors who helped sink the measure last week on a procedural vote, known as a rule.

Even if Republicans can clear the rule vote, it's no guarantee they can pass the bill. Amid Democratic opposition, McCarthy will need to keep Republicans united. Even if they get it passed, the conservative bill stands no chance in the Democratic Senate.

BAD IDEA, EH? The speaker of Canada’s House of Commons resigned today after quick and fierce backlash for honoring a man who fought in a Nazi division during World War II, our own KYLE DUGGAN reports.

ANTHONY ROTA made the sudden but not unexpected announcement to the House of Commons to express “profound regret” and said he would step down as speaker by end of day Wednesday.

“That public recognition has caused pain to individuals and communities, including the Jewish community in Canada and around the world, in addition to survivors of Nazi atrocities in Poland, among other nations,” he said.

Canadian lawmakers gave a standing ovation to YAROSLAV HUNKA, 98, after Rota recognized him as a “hero” following Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s historic speech in Parliament on Friday — a moment that produced some of the best visuals from Zelenskyy’s visit.

Read: Sullivan condemns reported attack on Cuban embassy in Washington by our own ANDREW ZHANG.

— PATRICIA GRUBER will serve as the science and technology adviser to the secretary of State, tasked with enhancing U.S. diplomacy in these areas. Gruber previously served as the chief scientific officer at the Office of Naval Research Global.

— SARAH SCHAKOW is now deputy assistant DHS secretary for media relations. She most recently was comms director for Sen. GARY PETERS (D-Mich.), and is a JOE DONNELLY alum.

— JAY SOLOMON, Semafor: Inside Iran’s influence operation

— SUZANNE NOSSEL, Foreign Policy: Cultural decoupling from China is not the answer

— MARC THIESSEN, The Washington Post: VIVEK RAMASWAMY has a China problem — and a HUNTER BIDEN problem

— The Middle East Institute, 9 a.m.: Oslo at 30: legacies, hard realities and alternatives for Israel-Palestine

— The Wilson Center's Polar Institute, 9 a.m.: The rules-based order in Antarctica and global challenges

— The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Exploring distributed ledger technology for managing the global conventional arms trade

— The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Challenging autocracy from the front lines

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: A book discussion on "Kabul: The Untold Story of Joe Biden's Fiasco and the American Warriors Who Fought to the End"

— The House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: No incentives for terrorism: U.S. implementation of the Taylor Force Act and efforts to stop 'pay to slay’

— The House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: The future of homeland security: addressing the rise of terrorism in Africa

— The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 11 a.m.: Bankers and bombs: how venture capital and private equity are feeding the military industrial complex

— The Cato Institute, 12 p.m.: Pariah or partner? re-evaluating the U.S.-Saudi relationship

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Russia's Cuban recruits

— New America, 12 p.m.: A book discussion on “Fear is Just a Word: A Missing Daughter, a Violent Cartel, and a Mother's Quest for Vengeance" 

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Politics and security in the Democratic Republic of Congo

— The House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: Examining the current U.S.-South Africa bilateral relationship

— The United States Institute of Peace, 2 p.m.: Examining regional security in the Pacific Islands

— The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Has the United Nations failed Ukraine and the world?

— The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: An allied approach to countering Beijing's military-civil fusion

— The Senate (Select) Intelligence Committee, 2:30 p.m.: Countering China's malign influence operations in the United States

— The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: A book discussion on "Age of Danger: Keeping America Safe in an Era of New Superpowers, New Weapons, and New Threats"

— Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 4:30 p.m.: Bolstering American economic statecraft: a conversation with Sens. JOHN CORNYN and BOB CASEY on outbound investments

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who suspiciously drives a Mercedes-Benz.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who swears by the trusty Toyota Camry.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

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