By Madison Fernandez

2023’s most anticipated legislative races are already here.

Early voting opened in Virginia on Friday for all 140 state House and Senate seats. Although Democrats typically hold an edge in early voting, Republicans in the state — spearheaded by Gov. Glenn Youngkin — have pushed hard this year to get their voters to turn out ahead of the Nov. 7 election.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin addresses the crowd during an early voting rally on Sept. 21 in Petersburg, Va. | Steve Helber/AP Photo

Democrats hold a slim majority 22-18 in the state Senate, and the GOP has narrow 49-46 control of the state House. Millions of dollars have poured into the races, and Democrats broadly maintain a fundraising advantage over Republican candidates.

Here are some races to watch in the final weeks of the campaign — ones that will both determine control of the legislature, and give us a big hint about the political environment heading into 2024:

— Senate District 16: Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant has a difficult reelection bid against Democratic state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg after redistricting moved her into a seat that leans Democratic. But Republicans think that if they win this seat, they will have a clear path to winning the Senate.

Like many of Virginia’s races, abortion is a centerpoint. But Dunnavant has been bullish on airing ads on the topic — a rarity for Republicans. In one, she outlines her position on the procedure, saying it should remain legal up to 15 weeks and there should be “reasonable exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother and severe fetal anomalies.” And in another, she labels VanValkenburg as “extreme” for supporting abortions late in pregnancy. VanValkenburg, for his part, is still hitting her over wanting to “ban abortion” — and she, in turn, has run ads saying that is not true.

Abortion is legal in Virginia until the third trimester, and there is an exception in the third trimester if there is a danger to the mother’s life.

— Senate District 24: Democratic Sen. Monty Mason, a longtime legislator who currently represents SD-1, is running in a new seat due to redistricting. This Hampton Roads district slightly favored Democrats in recent statewide and federal elections, though Youngkin won it by around three points in 2021. Republican Danny Diggs, a retired sheriff, is looking to unseat him — and has the help of outside forces. Mason is a frequent target of the Republican State Leadership Committee, the national GOP down-ballot party committee that is partnering with Youngkin and Virginia Republicans in this year’s races.

— Senate District 31: Democratic prosecutor and former CIA agent Russet Perry and Republican entrepreneur Juan Pablo Segura are facing off in this high-dollar Northern Virginia district. The two had the highest fundraising totals among state Senate races — close to $2 million combined — during the most recent fundraising period, from July 1 through Aug. 31. Segura was the only Republican to break the top-five for Senate fundraising during that time.

SD-31 is an open seat following redistricting. Youngkin narrowly won there in 2021, but congressional Democrats clinched wins in 2018 and 2022.

— House District 65: Former Democratic Del. Joshua Cole is running a comeback campaign in this competitive Northern Virginia district. Cole, who narrowly lost his reelection bid in the 2021 general election, is running against Republican Lee Peters. Peters is a veteran and law enforcement officer who has made public safety — a popular topic among these legislative races — central to his campaign. Like the other districts, Youngkin won here in 2021, but Democrats have prevailed in other races.

— House District 97: Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh, who’s running in a new district due to redistricting, is the only Republican to break the top five House fundraisers in the most recent fundraising period. Yet she trailed her opponent, Democratic veteran Michael Feggans, who was the top fundraiser with $633,000, by around $35,000. Youngkin won the district by around 2 points in 2021, but Democrats won the congressional vote by around 5 points last year.

Happy Monday. Reach me at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Louisiana primary: 19

Days until the 2023 election: 43

Days until the Republican National Convention: 294

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 329

Days until the 2024 election: 407

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INDICTMENT FALLOUT — Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) is planning on staying put, despite increasing calls from prominent members of his party to resign after he was charged on Friday with taking bribes to help businesspeople and the Egyptian government. “It is not lost on me how quickly some are rushing to judge a Latino and push him out of his seat,” Menendez, who is up for reelection next year, said in a statement on Friday. “I am not going anywhere.” (Should Menendez resign, Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy would appoint a successor.)

Murphy and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) were among those urging Menendez to step down, along with Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), who over the weekend launched a primary bid against Menendez, calling it “not something I expected to do.” Progressive activist Larry Hamm is also running.

Kim running for Senate leaves NJ-03, a Democratic-leaning seat, open. Mercer County Clerk Paula Sollami Covello, state Senate Majority Whip Troy Singleton and state Assembly Majority Whip Carol Murphy are among the Democrats considering running to succeed Kim, New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein reports.

On the Republican side, Rep. Jeff Van Drew is also considering a Senate bid in the wake of the Menendez indictment, per Save Jersey’s Matt Rooney. Christine Serrano Glassner, a New Jersey mayor, announced that she’s running last week. Don’t expect to see former Gov. Chris Christie in the mix — he said on Sunday that he wasn’t interested in the seat.

The scramble over Menendez’s seat could also impact the 2025 gubernatorial race, when Murphy will be termed out. Democratic Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill are potential gubernatorial contenders, but a potential Senate opening could shift those plans.

VYING IN VIRGINIA — A handful of Democrats are considering running for VA-10, currently held by Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who is retiring at the end of her term due to her health. Those include state Dels. Suhas Subramanyam, Dan Helmer and David Reid, POLITICO’s Brittany Gibson reports. VA-10 will be critical for Democrats as they look to win back the House majority.

PARTY SWITCH — Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson switched his party affiliation from Democratic to Republican, making Dallas the most populous city to be led by a Republican. “The future of America’s great urban centers depends on the willingness of the nation’s mayors to champion law and order and practice fiscal conservatism,” he wrote Friday in an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal. “Our cities desperately need the genuine commitment to these principles (as opposed to the inconsistent, poll-driven commitment of many Democrats) that has long been a defining characteristic of the GOP.” The Dallas mayoral office is a nonpartisan position. Johnson won reelection earlier this year.

FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Gen Z advocacy groups Path to Progress and Voters of Tomorrow are endorsing attorney, activist and TikTok influencer Cheyenne Hunt in her bid to unseat Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in CA-45.

A crowded field of Democrats are lining up to challenge Steel, who won reelection by close to 5 points last year. Hunt is facing Garden Grove City Council member Kim Nguyen and attorney Aditya Pai in the primary. If she wins, the 25-year-old Hunt could become the first Gen Z woman elected to Congress.

“I think [the endorsements are] a testament to the fact that we have, as a younger generation, incredible political organizing power, and that we know that we're stronger together,” Hunt told POLITICO’s Kelly Garrity in an interview.

SETTING THE STAGE — Monday is the last day Republican candidates can qualify for the second presidential primary debate of the 2024 cycle, which is on Wednesday in Simi Valley, Calif. Eight candidates have qualified by our count as of Monday morning: Trump (who’s not going); Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; businessperson Vivek Ramaswamy; former Vice President Mike Pence; former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley; South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott; Christie; and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. No candidate’s participation is official until confirmed by the RNC.

… Looking ahead to the next debate, which will be held on Nov. 8 (the day after Election Day) in Miami, the RNC is making it harder to get on the stage. Candidates will need to have 70,000 individual donors and hit 4 percent in either two national polls, or one national poll and two polls from separate early states, POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro and Olivia Alafriz note. Four candidates have already qualified for the third debate, according to our analysis: Trump, DeSantis, Ramaswamy and Haley.

DONOR DEBACLE — Wealthy GOP donors are keeping their wallets closed as Trump maintains a commanding lead in the Republican presidential primary, POLITICO’s Sally Goldenberg, Shia Kapos and Jessica Piper report. “They aren’t jazzed enough about any of his opponents to send them cash. They worry Trump will seek revenge if elected. And with DeSantis backsliding and no other candidate making significant movement in the polls, it is unclear who, if anyone, they would even back.”

CAUCUS RUCKUS — “Members of the Nevada GOP voted Saturday to establish rules for a party-run caucus that include barring candidates who choose to have their name listed on the ballot for a state-run primary election being held two days earlier and restricting political action committees from getting involved,” The Nevada Independent’s Tabitha Mueller and Jacob Solis write. “The split over the caucus and primary setup has frustrated Republican campaigns hoping to oust Trump from his de facto position as party leader and led to condemnation from other Republican groups that fear negative effects on the state’s election process.”

MEME-LECTION — ProgressNow, a liberal group, is launching a $70 million project to help Biden and down-ballot Democrats improve their online image with voters, POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein reports. The group developed an app called Megaphone where users “can scroll through a series of liberal memes, videos and graphics created by the organization, add their own captions, and then quickly share them on social media platforms.”

POWER STRUGGLE — “North Carolina Republicans approved a drastic restructuring of election boards on Friday, voting to give more power to the legislature and strip it from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper,” The News & Observer’s Kyle Ingram and Luciana Perez Uribe Guinassi write. “Cooper has said he will veto the legislation, but Republicans have the numbers to override the governor’s veto and have done so more than a dozen times this session.

PRESIDENTIAL — Future Leaders Fund, a pro-Will Hurd super PAC, is slamming Trump and Biden over their border policies. It’s the group’s first national TV ad.

… Trust in the Mission PAC, which is supporting Scott, is also focusing on the border in ads running in Iowa and New Hampshire.

… Never Back Down, the super PAC boosting DeSantis’ bid, is throwing shade at Trump in a spot running in the Iowa and New Hampshire markets.

OH SEN — Citizens for Sanity, a GOP group, is hitting Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown over parental consent in regard to gender-affirming care.

MT SEN — Republican Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is promising to “get this woke crap out of our military” in a spot, after warning of threats from China and Mexico.

KY GOV — Defending Bluegrass Values, the Democratic Governors Association’s affiliate group in Kentucky, is again criticizing Republican gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron over his plan that would make it more difficult to receive Medicaid.

MS GOV — Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves is touting the state’s education system in an ad that claims he “raised standards and rewarded our teachers.”

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— Mike Yelovich is polling director at Cygnal. He previously was research director at WPA Intelligence.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “My filing date isn't until January in West Virginia.” — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) at The Texas Tribune Festival on his 2024 plans.

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