By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

President Joe Biden continues to struggle in the polls. | Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Congressional Black Caucus Annual Legislative Conference

BEGUN THE POLLING WARS HAVE — There are two new national polls out — one from NBC, the other from ABC/WaPo — and while they tell a similar story about President JOE BIDEN’s weaknesses, they have very different toplines about a potential general-election matchup.

— On Biden’s weaknesses, per ABC’s write-up of its poll: “Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say they’ve become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he’s too old for another term and DONALD TRUMP is looking better in retrospect — all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead.”

The approval numbers on two big issues are dismal: 30% on the economy and 23% on immigration. Seventy-four percent of voters say Biden is too old for a second term.

— And here’s NBC on Biden: “[W]hat also stands out in the poll are the warning signs for Biden beyond his age — including an all-time high disapproval of his job performance, fewer than 4 in 10 voters approving of his handling of the economy and lagging interest in the election among key parts of the Democratic base.”

Both polls also show Trump crushing all competitors in the Republican primary. But what’s roiling the political conversation this morning are the starkly different results in the head-to-head general-election matchups.

NBC: 
Biden: 46%
Trump: 46%

ABC/WaPo: 
Biden: 42%
Trump: 51%

Trump world is naturally ecstatic about this latter result, and both the Post and ABC are spending a lot of energy trying to explain it. (To make things more confusing, the Post emphasizes the head-to-head matchup using registered voters, which was Biden 42, Trump 52, in this poll, while ABC’s headline uses the larger group of all adults, which was 42-51.)

The Post took the unusual step of adding a major caveat about their own results in the third graf of the write-up: “The … sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.”

JASON MILLER of the Trump campaign mocked the paper, tweeting, “The Post shits all over their own poll throughout the article.”

ABC got even deeper into the polling weeds trying to explain its curious results:

“A variety of factors may be at play. Biden’s poor performance ratings, the extent of economic discontent, the immigration crisis and doubts about his age clearly are relevant. All have been the subject of extensive recent news coverage, focusing public discourse on negatives for the president. Trump, meanwhile, has used his criminal indictments to bolster his base through claims of political persecution and enjoys positive coverage of his GOP frontrunner status.

“Question order can be a factor. As is customary for ABC/Post polls at this still-early stage of an election cycle, this survey asked first about Biden and Trump’s performance, economic sentiment and a handful of other issues (Ukraine aid, abortion and a government shutdown) before candidate preferences. That’s because these questions are more germane than candidate support in an election so far off. Since many results are negative toward Biden, it follows that he’s lagging in 2024 support. Nonetheless, those sentiments are real, have been consistently negative in recent surveys, and clearly mark Biden’s challenges ahead.”

We talked to a lot of political professionals this morning, and if you step back from the methodological wars that this poll has inflamed on Twitter, it’s worth considering a few things specifically about this debate and more generally about 2024 and polls:

— The ABC/WaPo poll is an outlier. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump up over Biden by 1.1 points. The FiveThirtyEight database also shows a matchup that is essentially tied. There are frequently one-off polls that show a much wider gap.

— Nate Cohn points out that while the ABC/WaPo poll is an outlier compared to other polling organizations, it isn’t an outlier compared to ABC/WaPo’s own polling of the race, which in May showed Trump up by 7 points over Biden. The ABC/WaPo poll has now consistently shown that Biden is struggling with young voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters — notable trends backed up by other research, which Cohn argues makes the poll useful even if it is an outlier.

— The general election is likely to be very close. In both 2016 and 2020 the Electoral College was decided by fewer than 100,000 votes in three swing states. Biden won the popular vote by 4.4 points, but national polls suggest 2024 may be closer. Biden had a consistent 4- to 10-point lead in national polling averages throughout 2019 and 2020. This year, Biden and Trump have been trading 1- to 2-point leads in polling averages.

— Polling is an art, not a science. In 2016, the NYT ran a fascinating experiment. The paper gave the raw data from its survey on the Trump-HILLARY CLINTON race in Florida to four different pollsters and asked them for the results. The four pollsters came back with four different answers, ranging from Trump +1 to Clinton +4. Why? Because they all made different assumptions about likely voters and the demographic composition of the electorate. This was less than two months before the election, so imagine how much more difficult it is to get those assumptions right more than a year before the election.

— ABC notes that in their new poll, the poor Biden general-election result might be explained by respondents sending a message to the incumbent president. “A hypothetical vote-preference question 14 months before an election is predictive of nothing,” ABC’s Gary Langer writes; “it’s best seen as an opportunity for the public to express its like or dislike of the candidates. Biden is broadly unpopular and doubts about his suitability for a second term are extensive; wherever they end up in more than a year, a substantial number of Americans today are taking the opportunity to express their displeasure.”

Put another way: Polling more than a year before an election, when most voters are not paying attention and we don’t know the outcome of the big events that will shape that election — the Trump trials, Biden’s health, the state of the economy, events in Congress, new Supreme Court opinions, the effects of billions of dollars in advertising — is interesting but doesn’t tell us much beyond what we already know: that the election will be close and that either Trump or Biden could win.

Good Sunday morning, and g’mar chatimah tova to those who observe. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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COUNTDOWN TO SHUTDOWN — One week from today, the federal government will shut down — barring, of course, the passage of a continuing resolution or other means of funding the government past 11:59 p.m. on Sept. 30.

Here’s where things stand:

IN: Ukraine aid. “Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY is backtracking on his plan to remove Ukraine aid from a massive military spending bill as Republicans scramble to find a way forward on funding the government,” Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers report.

“Republicans are preparing to vote Tuesday to start debate on four government funding bills: Defense, State, Homeland Security and an agriculture bill. It would mark the latest attempt for McCarthy to get his party’s funding bills off the ground. … But it is far from clear, despite the latest maneuvering on Ukraine aid, whether they have the votes. And even if Republicans are able to start debate — or pass any of the four bills — it would not avert a shutdown scheduled to start Oct. 1.”

OUT: $3.8 billion from ag and foreign aid. Among the programs on the chopping block: the Food for Peace program, which is facing a 70% cut. More from Roll Call’s Paul Krawzak and Aidan Quigley

McCARTHY’S STRATEGY: pleading. “In public overtures and private calls, Republican lieutenants of the embattled speaker pleaded with a handful of right-flank holdouts to resist further disruptions that have ground the House to a halt and back McCarthy’s latest plan to keep government open before next weekend’s Sept. 30 deadline for a shutdown,” write AP’s Lisa Mascaro and Farnoush Amiri.

Some McCarthy allies sound like they’ve had enough.

“I don’t think the speaker is even remotely concerned about some of the theatrics going on right now,” Rep. GARRET GRAVES (R-La.) told CNN’s Manu Raju. “As a matter of fact … I drafted a motion to vacate for the speaker as well. I’ve got it sitting on my desk right now. And I said, ‘Look, if you’re going to keep hanging this over [his] head and playing these games, let’s just do it now, let’s get it over with. Get your little games over with and then we’ll get back to the things that actually matter.’” Video of Graves’ comments to Raju

But the hard-right holdouts show no sign of relenting. As Graves and other McCarthy allies held a news conference yesterday, Rep. MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.) breezed past. Per the AP: “Asked if he was worried about a potential shutdown, Rosendale said: ‘Life is going to go on.’”

GREAT QUESTION: “Was McCarthy distracted from governing by impeachment inquiry?” by WaPo’s Paul Kane

SUNDAY BEST …

— Rep. TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) on whether he’d support ousting KEVIN McCARTHY as speaker if he uses Democratic votes to keep the government open, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “That would be something I would look strongly at, ma’am. If we do away with our duty that we said we were going to do — they’re all talking about this promise that he made with Biden a year ago. What about the promise we made to the American public, that we were going to be responsible Americans? Ma’am, we are going to be governing over a pile of rubble if we’re not careful.” Burchett said he’s still a no on a short-term government funding bill.

— Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG on the impacts of a shutdown, on ABC’s “This Week”: “I can’t believe some of the very same congressional Republicans who get in line to try to beat us up any time there’s a travel disruption — even a weather-related travel disruption — are going to turn around and shut down air traffic control training.”

— Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) getting heated with MARIA BARTIROMO about the government funding bills on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures”: Bartiromo: “As we understand it, they’re doing this this upcoming week, so we will be watching that.” Gaetz: “Right, because we are making them! They are doing it with a political gun to their head, and you are welcome, America, and we’re going to keep making them do it.”

— Rep. MAXINE WATERS (D-Calif.) on whether she’d vote to save McCarthy if the far right triggers a motion to vacate, on MSNBC’s “The Sunday Show”: “I’m not prepared to save him. Not at all. Not with the cuts that they’re proposing. They are devastating this country. … For the Republicans, patriotism is lost. It’s gone.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

• “The Internet Is About to Get Much Worse,” by Julia Angwin for NYT
• “Why the Republicans’ impeachment of Biden may be stupid enough to work,” by LA Times’ Jonah Goldberg
• “Why Do Conservatives Attack Abortion and Trans Rights in the Same Ways?,” by Jennifer Finney Boylan for NYT
• “Donald Trump Tests Pro-Life America,” by NYT’s David French
• “The Rupert Murdoch Retirement Myth,” by POLITICO Magazine’s Jack Shafer
• “Murdoch brainwashed Britain. That’s the comforting tale the left tells itself. But is it true?” by The Guardian’s Gaby Hinsliff
• “Is Single Parenthood the Problem?” by The Atlantic’s Annie Lowrey
• “Church of Trump convenes on Mackinac Island,” the Detroit News’ Kaitlyn Buss
• “The Senator’s Shorts and America’s Decline,” by WSJ’s Peggy Noonan
• “No, the World Is Not Multipolar,” by Jo Inge Bekkevold for Foreign Policy
• “The Justice Department Controversy You Might Have Missed,” by Ankush Khardori for POLITICO Magazine
• “Writing a paranoid political thriller offered a look at the ugly truth,” by Stephen Marche in WaPo

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Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) announced he would primary Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) next year in the wake of the senator’s stunning corruption charges. | Alex Brandon, File/AP Photo

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. MENENDEZ LATEST: Sen. BOB MENENDEZ’s (D-N.J.) political peril grew much worse yesterday with Rep. ANDY KIM’s (D-N.J.) announcement that he would primary Menendez next year in the wake of the senator’s stunning corruption charges. “I feel compelled to run against him,” Kim wrote on X. “Not something I expected to do, but NJ deserves better.” Having a credible primary challenge from an up-and-coming New Jersey Democrat quickly jeopardizes Menendez’s political future.

And Kim is far from the only threat. Rep. JEFF VAN DREW (R-N.J.) floated the prospect to Save Jersey’s Matt Rooney that he would run now against Menendez. Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) yesterday became the first senator to say Menendez should resign, potentially opening the floodgates for others to follow (though none have yet). Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.) joined the resignation calls, too.

But, but, but: Not everyone is jumping ship yet. In Hudson County, N.J., Menendez’s base of power, the official Democratic operation is staying neutral and Menendez retains plenty of support, Daniel Han reports.

2. CORRECTING THE NARRATIVE: “Inside the Unfounded Claim That DeSantis Abused Guantánamo Detainees,” by NYT’s Matthew Rosenberg and Carol Rosenberg: “[A]n examination of military records and interviews with detainees’ lawyers and service members who served at the same time as [Florida Gov. RON] DeSANTIS found no evidence to back up the claims. The New York Times interviewed more than 40 people who served with Mr. DeSantis or around the same time and none recalled witnessing or even hearing of any episodes like the ones [MANSOOR] ADAYFI described. Instead, nearly all of those interviewed dismissed the story as highly improbable.”

3. TRUMP LOOKS GOLDEN IN THE SILVER STATE: By a wide margin, the Nevada Republican Party voted yesterday to establish their own presidential caucus next year that will take place in addition to the state-run primary election — a chaotic dual track that’s expected to benefit Trump, The Nevada Independent’s Tabitha Mueller and Jacob Solis report. The caucus, which has drawn condemnation from DeSantis’ camp, will take place two days after the primary. Only VIVEK RAMASWAMY has filed so far for the caucus, which costs $55,000 to enter, but Trump and LARRY ELDER are expected to join soon.

4. BIG NEW INVESTMENT: “Move over Dark Brandon, this group wants to make Joe Cool a new meme,” by Holly Otterbein: “ProgressNow is launching a $70 million project to help the president and down-ballot Democrats win the war for voters’ digital attention. The idea is to create, in their own words, an ‘echo chamber’ on the left. … The center of ProgressNow’s plan is an app that the group has developed called Megaphone. Users who download the app can scroll through a series of liberal memes, videos and graphics created by the organization, add their own captions, and then quickly share them on social media platforms.”

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5. ONE TO WATCH: Could we be headed for an election with as many as five significant presidential candidates on different party lines? NYT’s Nicholas Nehamas reports from Miami that ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. has had some flirtations with the Libertarian Party, including a previously unreported meeting with party chair ANGELA McARDLE in July. Kennedy’s campaign insists he’s sticking with the Democratic primary and has no intention of going Libertarian. But he’s also seemed to leave the door open to all options in recent comments.

6. WORKING THE REFS: “Misinformation research is buckling under GOP legal attacks,” by WaPo’s Naomi Nix, Cat Zakrzewski and Joseph Menn: “Academics, universities and government agencies are overhauling or ending research programs designed to counter the spread of online misinformation amid a legal campaign from conservative politicians and activists who accuse them of colluding with tech companies to censor right-wing views. The escalating campaign — led by Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) and other Republicans in Congress and state government — has cast a pall over programs that study not just political falsehoods but also the quality of medical information online.”

7. DEMOCRACY WATCH: “In North Carolina, Republicans Seek More Control Over Elections,” by NYT’s Michael Wines

8. A DIFFERENT KIND OF PANDEMIC SURGE: “Anti-vaccine groups are now rolling in cash,” by Jessica Piper: “Revenue more than doubled for the Informed Consent Action Network and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Children’s Health Defense in 2021 compared to the year prior … The nonprofits that survived on operating budgets of around a few million dollars just a few years prior are now raking in more than $10 million each. … The funding spike reflects a sea change for once-fringe entities. The anti-vaccine movement has now emerged as a modern political force.”

9. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: The White House is gearing up for a big U.S.-Pacific Island Forum Summit this week, aiming to shore up relationships in the South Pacific with an eye on competition with China. Tomorrow, Biden will announce that the U.S. is opening new embassies in the Cook Islands and Niue, AP’s Aamer Madhani reports. On the flip side, the U.S. said it was “very disappointed” that Solomon Islands PM MANASSEH SOGAVARE, who’s getting closer to China, opted to skip the confab. And the administration is worried that the shutdown fight could endanger its Pacific strategy, as funding for pacts with the Marshall Islands and other countries is at risk of being axed, WSJ’s Charles Hutzler reports.

Elsewhere in the region, the administration is in early talks with Vietnam for a major arms deal, including selling Hanoi a fleet of F-16s, Reuters’ Trevor Hunnicutt and Nandita Bose scooped. An agreement, which would surely irritate China, would be the largest such deal between the U.S. and Vietnam in history.

Related read: “Satellite images show increased activity at nuclear test sites in Russia, China and U.S.,” by CNN’s Eric Cheung, Brad Lendon and Ivan Watson

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Joe Biden got his Covid and flu shots.

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