By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

NEW SCOTUS INVESTIGATION JUST DROPPED — ProPublica is up with its latest must-read dive into ethics on the Supreme Court. This time, the story centers on Justice CLARENCE THOMAS’ participation in Koch network donor summits — some with overtly political organizations — that have blurred the lines between leisure and politics and stem from a secret friendship with the billionaire Koch brothers.

ONE TO WATCH TODAY — “Auto strikes are expected to expand Friday with no deal in sight,” by WaPo’s Lauren Kaori Gurley and Jeanne Whalen … Related read: “The Strike From Hell for ‘Union Joe,’” by NY Mag’s Gabriel Debenedetti

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who has been pilloried by Speaker Kevin Mccarthy and his allies for the last two weeks, wakes up this morning as the architect of the House GOP’s newest legislative strategy. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

SPEAKER GAETZ — “The House has really abandoned the McCarthy CR strategy today and has embraced the MATT GAETZ strategy of single subject spending bills.”

That was Gaetz last night on a podcast, explaining what transpired in the House on Thursday. And he was not wrong.

The Florida Republican, who has been pilloried by Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY and his allies for the last two weeks, wakes up this morning as the architect of the House GOP’s newest legislative strategy.

Here’s how it happened. 

Yesterday, five House Republicans voted down the rule to advance the GOP’s Pentagon spending bill — the third rule defeat McCarthy has suffered this year.

Voting down a rule used to be a rare event (the last speaker to lose a rules vote was DENNIS HASTERT). But McCarthy believed he had the votes yesterday because Reps. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.) and KEN BUCK (R-Colo.), who both opposed the same rule on Tuesday, agreed to support the rule on Thursday.

But what McCarthy and his whip team missed was that Reps. ELI CRANE (R-Ariz.) and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), who voted for the rule on Tuesday, opposed the rule on Thursday.

Within two hours of this humiliating defeat, at the nadir of McCarthy’s awful week, a surprising visitor showed up at his office: Gaetz. He had a plan.

In another closed-door meeting, Gaetz huddled with a larger group of Republicans, including some moderates, and pitched them on the same idea.

Gaetz had spent the week proving to McCarthy that the speaker could not pass a continuing resolution to keep the government temporarily open, no matter how much the speaker refashioned it to appease the hard right. “#NOCR” has become a rallying cry for Gaetz and his crew that has hardened as a government shutdown approaches.

Making things worse for McCarthy was the fact that the never-CR Republicans and the no-on-the-rule Republicans are actually slightly different groups (though the former has more members). In fact, Gaetz voted for the rule for the Defense bill on both Tuesday and Thursday.

But the rule votes increased McCarthy’s desperation and strengthened his chief antagonist. “This opportunity has come to pass only because a handful of us had the stones to take down the defense approps rule today,” Rep. DAN BISHOP (R-N.C.) said last night.

Gaetz told his Republican colleagues that McCarthy should bring single subject appropriations bills to the floor one at a time. He dictated his list of the first four: Defense, Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations, and the Agriculture-FDA bill.

A few hours later, the Rules Committee put out notice that it would be taking up four bills today at 1 p.m.: Defense, Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations, and the Agriculture-FDA bill.

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WHAT GAETZ FEARS: The premise of the Gaetz plan is to kill what he calls governing by CR. It assumes a government shutdown is inevitable. And instead of using a hard-right CR as the House’s opening move in negotiations with the Senate, the (lengthy) floor debates on the House GOP-crafted appropriations bills will serve that purpose.

Gaetz has a surprising partner in this plan: Rep. MARC MOLINARO, a New York moderate who is one of the 18 House Republicans representing a district carried by JOE BIDEN. Molinaro has been involved in various attempts to solve the shutdown crisis this week, including the bipartisan effort to use a discharge petition to force a vote on a CR. “It is absolutely an option,” he told NBC News yesterday even as he worked with Gaetz on the plan to kill the CR.

Now that his strategy has prevailed, Gaetz said last night that he sees one serious obstacle to keeping it on course and preventing a return to the CR.

“The threat is that five liberal or moderate Republicans say, ‘We don’t want to do the single subject bills,’” he said on the podcast last night. “So we’re just going to go sign what’s called a discharge petition and then just move that thing like shit through a goose.”

Since the Gaetz strategy assumes a shutdown, we suspect that Gaetz is right that there will be a backlash against this plan from plenty of House Republicans as the shutdown approaches and that the discharge petition will start to look like an increasingly appealing option. After all, McCarthy himself noted this week that his rebels have already crossed two of the three major red lines for a member of the House majority: (1) voting against the speaker candidate approved by a majority of the conference and (2) voting against a rule. He suggested that it may be inevitable that the third red line will soon be crossed: supporting a discharge petition.

MEANWHILE IN THE SENATE: The Molinaro-Gaetz plan did not look like a winner to CHUCK SCHUMER last night. As it was being crafted, he moved to begin debate on a bill that can be used to send the House the Senate’s version of a CR, which opens the possibility that McCarthy will have a bill in hand to avert a shutdown before next Sunday.

If you squint hard, you might see a possible scenario in which McCarthy allows a week to be wasted on the Gaetz plan but then — bowing to pressure from the Senate, the public and his own conference — passes the Senate CR with a bipartisan vote at the last minute or after a short shutdown. Of course, McCarthy passing any CR is an outcome that Gaetz and others have promised would trigger a motion to vacate.

We sat down with House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) to get her reading on the state of play in the shutdown standoff. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: KATHERINE CLARK — Speaking of the motion to vacate, we wanted to get a better idea of what Democrats might do if McCarthy faces such a vote, so we sat down with Democratic Whip Katherine Clark in her office yesterday afternoon and pressed her on what it would take to help McCarthy.

On her list: ending the impeachment probe of Joe Biden. The full interview is available here on Deep Dive. What follows are some key excerpts.

— When pressed on what Dems might want in exchange for helping McCarthy: “We want him to live up to the agreement that he made [with President Biden]. We want to get disaster aid out. We want to continue our support for Ukraine. And we want them to end this sham of an impeachment inquiry.”

— On the Dems’ role at this stage in the government funding standoff: “We respected the deal that the president made with Speaker McCarthy. And they signed that deal. And 314 of us voted — in an almost equal bipartisan fashion — to support it. And the ink was barely dry when Kevin McCarthy was back trying to placate the extremists in his conference. And he is just telling the American people what matters is him retaining his speakership and they don't. And so when people come and say, Are Democrats going to help?, it is beyond frustrating.”

— On McCarthy: “When you have a leader whose sole focus has become remaining that leader, then bad things emanate from that. And that's the situation where we are. … Nothing about Kevin McCarthy's behavior as speaker gives me confidence that he is going to turn into the leader that this moment is calling for.”

— On what Dems will do if a motion to vacate comes to the floor: “It is going to be totally dependent on the actions of Kevin McCarthy. … [I] he comes back to [the bipartisan spending deal], we can talk about it, because our goal is to prevent a shutdown. … We've been here waiting to have Kevin McCarthy ask for help in governing responsibly. I haven’t gotten that call.”

— On her nicknames, which include “the quiet assassin” and “the velvet assassin”: “There is some sort of stereotype that if you're friendly, if you're nice, like, do you really have political strength, political acumen? … I think sometimes, people are uneasy with both of those things residing in a woman.”

HOW IT’S PLAYING — WaPo: “House Republicans falter on funding plans, as shutdown inches closer” … NYT: “Right-Wing Rebels Block Defense Bill Again, Rebuking McCarthy on Spending” … WSJ: “McCarthy Sends Republicans Home After Losing ‘Shock’ Vote in House” … AP: “Government shutdown risk spikes as House Republicans leave town in disarray amid hard-right revolt”

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. It’s the last full day of summer. What are you looking forward to this fall? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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CAPITAL CITY COLUMN — “He Thinks Russia Was Behind His Shooting. Local Cops Don’t. Is There a Better Way to Investigate Alleged Foreign Ops in America?” by Michael Schaffer

ON THE GROUND AT UNGA — “‘Hope over reality’: Global diplomats gird themselves for Trump 2.0,” by Nahal Toosi: “The European official looked terrified as I pointed outside the window at the gleaming black building a block away: Trump World Tower. ‘Wow. He’s right there! He’s literally looming over you!’ I said, genuinely astonished. Moments later, he moved my interview to a different room — one without the view of the Trump skyscraper.”

HE WHO SHALL NOT BE NAMED — “‘Trump Is Voldemort’: The Long-Simmering Feud Between the Reagan Library and Donald Trump,” by David Siders

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — This morning, NIKKI HALEY will deliver what her campaign is billing as a “major economic speech” at St. Anselm’s College in New Hampshire. In it, the former South Carolina governor will unveil her economic agenda (“The Freedom Plan”), which has three main components, per a statement from the campaign: “tax relief for the middle class, cutting spending to tackle inflation and debt [and] stopping government control of our lives.”

What to watch for: Haley’s camp tells us that the speech will “call out some Republicans’ ‘industrial policy’ as little more than socialism lite.”

—  Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund and Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund are launching a new $1.5 million paid media campaign in Virginia highlighting GOP opposition to gun safety laws. The ads will run across digital platforms in targeted battleground districts. The group has also released a new poll highlighting gun safety opinions in Virginia as well as a slate of new endorsements for candidates in key legislative seats and down-ballot races in the state’s House and Senate as well as local races.

On the Hill

The Senate and House are out.

3 things to watch …

1. House Republicans aren’t likely to have any floor meltdowns today, but that’s mainly because there won’t be anything happening on the floor. The Rules Committee, however, will meet at 1 p.m. to tee up fiscal 2024 appropriations bills for next week, and it will be worth listening to what the panel’s three GOP hard-liners have to say — particularly Rep. RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.), who said he was “asleep at the switch” when he voted to advance the last approps rule.
   
2. CHUCK SCHUMER’s Yom Kippur weekend may involve some worldly distractions as he decides how to approach next week’s spending showdown. He started the process yesterday of advancing a bipartisan CR, filing cloture on a House vehicle. But he’ll have to quickly determine what kind of a stopgap — how long, and with what attached — can muster 60 votes in the chamber.
   
3. The Senate’s dress code saga will continue to simmer, it seems, with Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) circulating actual legislation that would restore the standards of sartorial decorum that Schumer unilaterally ditched earlier this week. We’re interested to see the text of that resolution, first reported by The Hill’s Alex Bolton, and whether it will compel other senators to join Manchin in wearing brown suits.

At the White House

The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will deliver remarks on gun safety in the Rose Garden at 2:45 p.m.

GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.

2024 WATCH

Ron DeSantis' presidential campaign is going all-in on Iowa. | AP

DeSANTIS FIGHTS GRAVITY — Abandoned by some of his top donors, hampered by anemic poll numbers, battered by criticism from prominent fellow Republicans and RON DeSANTIS is turning to a strategy of necessity, as WaPo’s Hannah Knowles, Josh Dawsey and Isaac Arnsdorf report: going all-in on Iowa to keep his presidential dreams alive.

The gist: “DeSantis allies think that if the governor can beat [DONALD] TRUMP in an early 2024 state, that would puncture the feeling among Republicans that Trump is the inevitable nominee. … The calculation has turned the Hawkeye State into an Alamo of sorts for DeSantis, who has traveled much less to New Hampshire and South Carolina. While DeSantis advisers say they are prepared for a long fight, multiple people close to the governor say he has to perform well there or his campaign is effectively over.”

Reason to hope: Though nothing is final, Iowa Gov. KIM REYNOLDS is signaling she is likely to endorse DeSantis for president, Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook reports — possibly as soon as November.

Trouble at home: “‘Waiting for him to drop out’: DeSantis’ influence nosedives in Florida,” by Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard: “Now, it may be just a matter of time before Florida Republicans, once unflinchingly loyal, seek distance from DeSantis and his hardball governing methods.”

Related read: “Ron DeSantis is doubling down on Covid vaccine skepticism. It probably won't work,” by Sally Goldenberg

More top reads: 

• Analyzing Trump’s campaign stops from May to September, WaPo’s Josh Dawsey, Isaac Arnsdorf and Hannah Knowles are up with the latest reading of Trump’s schedule, finding that the former president has held fewer events than nearly all of his would-be GOP rivals. The takeaway: “He is still ahead by a long shot in national and state polls, dominating a field that has struggled to gain oxygen even as they appear in more places more frequently than Trump does.”
  
• It’s not just Trump that is brushing off the rest of the Republican field. NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Reid Epstein report that the Biden and his political brain trust “signaled this week that they were beginning to turn their full attention to his old rival, seeking to re-energize the party’s base and activate donors ahead of what is expected to be a long and grueling sequel.”

ALL POLITICS

THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE HOME VS. RETURN TO OZ — At a Pittsburgh rally yesterday, Republican DAVE McCORMICK officially launched his campaign to take on Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY, centering his attacks on the incumbent around the idea that Casey is a “rubber-stamp for Joe Biden,” per Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser.

The debate McCormick doesn’t want: “Control of the Senate could depend on McCormick’s ability to cast himself as a homegrown Army veteran,” Ally Mutnick writes in a dispatch from the rally. “It’s an authenticity attack that he also faced in his 2022 run and that Democrats successfully weaponized against the ultimate Republican nominee, MEHMET OZ. Now it’s beginning anew as questions swirl about how much time McCormick spends on Connecticut’s Gold Coast as a wealthy financier.”

Speaking of … “David McCormick Says He Lives in Pennsylvania. Flight Records Appear to Tell a Different Story,” by Vanity Fair’s Caleb Ecarma

DEMS’ SWING-STATE STRATEGY — “Arizona abortion rights advocates launch signature-gathering effort for ballot measure,” by Arizona Republic’s Stephanie Innes

CONGRESS

U.S. support for Ukraine — once a bipartisan endeavor — has become a tougher sell in Washington. | AP

MR. ZELENSKYY GOES TO WASHINGTON — As Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY concluded his visit to Washington yesterday, the Biden administration announced a $325 million military aid package — funding that was once largely bipartisan but has since been “inextricably linked to negotiations to avoid a partial government shutdown at the end of September, with the GOP-controlled House paralyzed by infighting over spending,” WSJ’s Lindsay Wise, Michael Gordon and Gordon Lubold write.

In that climate, GOP leadership is skeptical about sending a new round of aid. WaPo’s John Hudson reports that during their private meeting yesterday, McCarthy directly asked Zelenskyy about the potential length of the conflict and whether Kyiv’s military is responsibly employing U.S.-supplied weapons. 

More top reads: 

• Yesterday, the Senate unanimously confirmed Army Gen. RANDY GEORGE and Marine Gen. ERIC SMITH as the chiefs of staff of their respective branches, but Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE's (R-Ala.) blockade of military promotions will continue for hundreds of other nominees. “If anything, the confirmations seemed only to embolden Mr. Tuberville,” writes NYT’s Karoun Demirjian.
  
• “When a Congressman Challenged Disney on China, It Laid Off Beijing Staff,” by WSJ’s Jessica Toonkel and Robbie Whelan: “Disney Chief Executive BOB IGER was scheduled to meet the following week with Republican Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER, who chairs a congressional committee focused on U.S. competition with China.”

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THE WHITE HOUSE

Migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border continue to soar to near-record levels — with more on the way. | AP

BIDEN’S BORDER SQUEEZE — The White House’s decision to clear an easier path to work authorization for nearly a half-million Venezuelan immigrants in the U.S. has a practical purpose: “By allowing them to legally earn income, the change could alleviate the costly burden of housing the refugees in major cities across the country,” NYT’s Michael Shear and Luis Ferré-Sadurní report.

But the policy reality doesn’t make for a political advantage. “The situation at the border … is providing ammunition to conservative Republicans who are vowing to shut down the government unless Congress agrees to new anti-immigration measures. They argue that protecting recent Venezuelan migrants from deportation will only encourage more to head north, hoping for similar treatment after they arrive.”

Meanwhile, migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border continue to soar to near-record levels, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez reports, with border agents apprehending “140,000 migrants who crossed the U.S.-Mexico border without authorization during the first 20 days of September, an average of about 6,900 each day … a 60% increase from the daily average of 4,300 in July.”

And more are on