By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

WELCOME TO WASHINGTON, MR. ZELENSKYY — This morning, more than two dozen Hill Republicans — including six senators, led by Ohio’s J.D. VANCE — are sending a letter to the White House vowing to oppose further aid to Ukraine, the WSJ’s Lindsay Wise scoops. Read it here

JUST POSTED — Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY is the subject of a major new Atlantic cover story out this morning by Jeffrey Goldberg. The feature includes some striking anecdotes, including a meeting Milley convened with top nuclear officials after Jan. 6 to forestall disaster. Milley recounts the time then-President DONALD TRUMP said of a severely injured veteran singing “God Bless America,” “No one wants to see that, the wounded.” (Quite different from the CNN headline at the time: “Trump moved by wounded veteran’s performance.”)

Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks with reporters at the Capitol Sept. 20, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

A HOUSE GOP ‘BREAKTHROUGH’? — If you want to know how grim things are in the House right now, look no further than what occurred in the basement of the Capitol last night.

House Republicans emerged from a closed-door conference meeting jubilant and touting progress on spending plans that have bedeviled them all summer. The upshot? They appear to (1) finally have a new deal to take up the Defense appropriations bill that conservatives blocked from consideration earlier this week — and (2) seem to have flipped some opponents to their so-called continuing resolution, or CR.

After the meeting, Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY claimed “we’re in a good place,” while top negotiator Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON (R-S.D.) called the meeting “tremendously productive.” Conservatives also came out with a pep in their step. Republican Study Committee Chair KEVIN HERN (R-Okla.) gave a shout-out to his colleagues for working together, and another member told our Olivia Beavers that it was “the most productive conference meeting we’ve ever had.”

But, to be very candid, the celebration is premature at best. Serious questions remain:

Do they actually have the votes to pass the Defense bill? We don’t know.

Do they have the votes to pass the GOP’s new CR? Also unclear. 

And most importantly: Do they have a strategy for what to do when the Senate ignores their latest spending gambit and sends back a “clean” CR without all these new policy riders? Absolutely not.

The truth is, we’re just at the start of what’s going to be a very long, ugly, drawn-out war — a reality that longtime appropriator (and realist) Rep. STEVE WOMACK (R-Ark.) hinted at when he left the meeting last night.

“We all get wrapped around the axle about what we’re doing right now, but … eventually the Senate is going to get an opportunity to weigh in, and they’re going to send something back to us, and it’s going to look a lot different,” Womack told us in what we might call the understatement of the week. “Then we’ll have another bigger decision to make — and that’s when the most emotional, strategic vote will have to take place.”

Adding to McCarthy’s complications? Trump appeared to come out in opposition to the new CR plan late last night. In a social media post, he pushed for Republicans to “defund all aspects of Crooked JOE BIDEN’s weaponized Government,” calling the Oct. 1 funding deadline the “last chance to defund these political prosecutions against me and other Patriots.”

Meanwhile, centrist Republicans like Rep. TONY GONZALES (R-Texas) blasted the GOP conference for living in La La Land. Our colleague Jordain Carney scooped last night that the Texas Republican is a no on the CR because “none of these ideas have any chance of being taken up in the Senate and signed into law.”

That said, two of the five hardliners who blocked the Defense bill earlier this week changed their tune in last night’s meeting, meaning that Republicans should have the votes to clear the legislation’s rule as soon as today and take up the Pentagon funding bill that should have easily passed their chamber months ago.

And there are also positive signs for the new CR that was hashed out in the meeting. While Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) argued that at least seven House Republicans would never vote for a continuing resolution — a number that fellow “no” vote TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) echoed last night on CNN — Gaetz was rebuked by none other than Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.), who admonished him for speaking on others’ behalf. Good, previously a conservative CR holdout, indicated that the new deal floated by leadership would move him to yes.

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So what are the new terms of this deal McCarthy ironed out in real time in front of his members to unstick the spending snag? Once again, moderates who didn’t want to gut spending further got rolled. Republican leaders agreed to:

— A CR that includes steeper cuts, as demanded by conservatives, and would fund the government at $1.471 trillion.

— In addition to the border crackdown measures already included, a new sweetener: a commission that will look at cutting spending and reducing the debt in the future.

— A new topline number for long-term House appropriations bills: $1.526 trillion — or $64 billion less than the topline McCarthy agreed to in the debt ceiling deal.

But here’s the problem: Not only is it still unclear if Republicans can pass their newly floated CR plan, but Trump’s late-night screed could rally conservatives who want to defund the Justice Department. That idea, of course, is a total nonstarter for many centrist House Republicans who are already squeamish about spending cuts. And yet MAGA-minded lawmakers are already using Trump’s battle cry to push for more, including Gaetz, who blasted out Trump’s message on X and added, “Hold the line.”

There was also no discussion about the elephant in the room, which that none of this is ever going to pass muster with Democrats. Some conservatives, in fact, left the room with the impression that McCarthy is going to fight for the Republican CR and win some sort of concessions.

Case in point: We caught up with Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.), who opposed the previous draft. While she didn’t commit to voting yes on the new version, she seemed at least open to it — though also had a warning for McCarthy.

“If he is not willing to fight — fight and win — then he is going to fail Republicans,” Spartz told Playbook. “He is going to be tested one more time. From my perspective, he’s already failed us twice. The third time, I’m done. … I judge people not on what they say, but the results. We need to win something.”

But conservatives like Spartz are in for a rude awakening. While McCarthy was able to leverage GOP unity to extract concessions from Democrats in the debt ceiling negotiations, when it comes to government shutdowns, the side making the policy demands rarely notches any victories.

What’s more, Senate Republicans — and even some Republicans in House leadership — privately acknowledge that eventually, McCarthy is going to have to revert to the topline numbers he originally hashed out with White House last spring.

And when he does, the ugly mood in the House will return — and probably get even worse.

Related reads: “Centrist Dems and McCarthy’s allies are in secret talks to strike a deal,” by Sarah Ferris, Nick Wu, Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney … “Problem Solvers Caucus would fund government through January and include Ukraine aid,” by the Washington Examiner’s Reese Gorman … “Tyranny of extreme minority: House traditions allow just a handful to dictate agenda,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — MANU RAJU will make his debut hosting “Inside Politics Sunday” on CNN this Sunday, taking over as anchor at 11 a.m.

TEMPTING AN OUTBREAK — “‘We’re going to lose lives’: Health experts decry rise of vaccine skepticism,” by Megan Messerly, the second in a five-part POLITICO series on anti-vaxx: “Some worry that only a national tragedy will turn the current trend around.”

STARMER’S TRUMP ALERT — Speaking to Anne McElvoy for POLITICO’s new global podcast, “Power Play,” Sir KEIR STARMER — the man hoping to be Britain’s PM next year — says a Trump victory is not his “desired outcome.” The U.K. Labour leader also told “Power Play” he speaks “frequently” with former President BARACK OBAMA, and that though his team has talks with Biden’s administration, he hasn’t yet received an invitation to meet the president. Listen and subscribe to “Power Play” here

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On the Hill

The Senate is in. There will be an all-senators meeting with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY at 10 a.m. (more on that below).

The House will meet at 9 a.m. Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES will hold his weekly news conference at 10:45 a.m.

3 things to watch …

1. Zelenskyy arrives on the Hill later this morning after exhorting the world at the U.N. General Assembly for help repelling the Russian invasion. Here, he will exhort a select crowd: As NYT’s Karoun Demirjian reports, while all 100 senators will have the opportunity to meet Zelenskyy, House members will need an invite from McCarthy or Jeffries or leave the Hill for a Congressional Ukraine Caucus event at the National Archives. As for what he’ll hear: Senators plan to warn him that more aid to Ukraine looks likely to be delayed — if it comes at all, Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano preview. 
   
2. The truth is out there, and the members of the House Oversight Committee are getting briefed on it — or at least the search for it. NASA officials will be in attendance at the 9 a.m. briefing to answer questions about the agency’s recently released Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Report, which includes this deflating line: “At this point there is no reason to conclude that existing UAP reports have an extraterrestrial source.”
   
3. The annual Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Leadership Conference wraps tonight with the customary gala blowout at the Washington Convention Center, featuring an address from Biden, honors for Sister NORMA PIMENTEL, CESAR MILLAN and the KID MERO, and music from Dominican merengue band LOS HERMANOS ROSARIO and Tejano legend BOBBY PULIDO.

At the White House

Biden will welcome Zelenskyy to the White House for bilateral and expanded bilateral meetings before heading to the CHCI gala.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will lead a press call for an announcement about easing medical debt before joining Biden and Zelenskyy at a bilateral.

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WAR IN UKRAINE

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's agenda will include his first-ever visit to the Pentagon. | Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

ZELENSKYY IN WASHINGTON — Zelenskyy is in town today at a critical moment for his country: Not only is Kyiv’s battlefield position tenuous, but the future of U.S. assistance looks uncertain amid growing Republican opposition. His agenda will include his first-ever visit to the Pentagon, Lara Seligman reports, to talk with top military leaders in between meetings with senators and Biden.

Ukraine’s Hill backers are growing concerned that the Biden administration isn’t doing enough to make the sales pitch for continued aid, Jennifer Haberkorn and Adam Cancryn report this morning. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN recounting atrocities at the U.N., like he did yesterday, may not be enough, these lawmakers warn: They say the White House needs to be selling Congress and the American public much harder on why the support is in the U.S.’ interest.

THE ECONOMY

FED UP — The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady at the conclusion of its meeting yesterday, as expected. Chair JEROME POWELL offered his most optimistic comments to date that the U.S. may be able to stick the “soft landing” of tamping down inflation without inciting recession. More details from Reuters

STRIKE WATCH — The prospects for a quick resolution to the UAW strike look dim: A union negotiator told Bloomberg that the latest Stellantis offer doesn’t seem to move the needle much on job security and pay increases, while GM and the union remain far apart.

Politically, Biden could get squeezed from both sides: Trump is heading to Detroit next week, though his administration’s record has organized labor very skeptical of him, Olivia Olander, Nick Niedzwiadek and Doug Palmer report this morning. And Green Party candidate CORNEL WEST told The Hill’s Hanna Trudo that he’ll go to Michigan, too, to support the picketers.

2024 WATCH

Republican presidential candidate Governor Ron DeSantis speaks during the Pray Vote Stand Summit Friday, Sept. 15, 2023. | Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo

DeSANTIS DEFLATING? — Three new early-state polls tell a familiar story in the GOP primary: NIKKI HALEY gaining, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS slipping and Trump steamrolling. CNN/University of New Hampshire finds DeSantis in fifth in New Hampshire, behind VIVEK RAMASWAMY, Haley and CHRIS CHRISTIE. Fox Business finds Trump’s lead over DeSantis ticking wider, and DeSantis falling 8 points behind Haley (and way behind Trump) in South Carolina.

“Get your ass up here. Yesterday,” a New Hampshire Republican tells The Messenger’s Marc Caputo, Stephanie Murray and Trent Spiner of DeSantis. On the ground in the Granite State, DeSantis’ absence is felt as he focuses on Iowa. GOP operatives in the state say he’s missing out on critical retail politicking. Meanwhile, DeSantis was in Texas yesterday to roll out a major energy policy platform and downplayed climate change, per ABC.

More top reads:

• “‘We knew the numbers were bad’: Law enforcement staff raised concerns about Ron DeSantis’ top crime talking point,” by NBC’s Matt Dixon: “Three former staffers in Florida's top law enforcement agency told NBC News they could not get behind the statement that state crime was at ‘a 50-year low.’”
  
• Trump plans to skip the third debate in Miami too, Bloomberg’s Stephanie Lai reports.
  
• North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM and ASA HUTCHINSON are in danger of missing the second debate, with time running short, NYT’s Neil Vigdor notes.
  
• Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) is trying to step it up a notch: Yesterday, he slammed Trump, DeSantis and Haley on abortion to Fox News; issued a new memo telling donors not to fret about debates, per Meridith McGraw; and floated TREY GOWDY, JOHN RATCLIFFE, CHRIS SUNUNU and MIKE POMPEO as possible VP picks, per Time.

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MORE POLITICS

HAPPENING TODAY — “Republican David McCormick is expected to announce he’s entering Pennsylvania’s US Senate race,” by AP’s Marc Levy

LAKE MAKES A SPLASH — Arizona Republican KARI LAKE will jump into the Senate race as early as October, Ally Mutnick, Burgess Everett and Holly Otterbein scooped.

DEEP IN THE HEART — Texas AG KEN PAXTON, having just survived removal from office, told Tucker Carlson that primarying Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) isn’t off the table.

RUN FOR SOMETHING’S NEW TARGET — “Progressive Org Plans $10 Million for School Board Races,” by The Daily Beast’s Kelly Weill

CONGRESS

Air Force Gen. CQ Brown testifies during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing. | Mariam Zuhaib, File/AP Photo

HAIL TO THE CHIEF — We’ll finally have a new Joint Chiefs of Staff chair: The Senate voted 83-11 yesterday to confirm Gen. CHARLES Q. BROWN JR., finally maneuvering around Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) blockade on Pentagon noms. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER also teed up Gens. ERIC SMITH and RANDY GEORGE to be confirmed today as Marine Corps commandant and Army chief of staff, respectively. It’s an important breakthrough for the top ranks of the military. But it also amounts to a tacit signal of defeat by Schumer, as Tuberville remains intransigent over abortion policy: The majority leader has to use up time-consuming procedures to get anyone through. More from the NYT

More top reads:

• Sens. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) and AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) today are unveiling a major proposed framework for regulating AI, which Thune says will have a lighter touch than Schumer’s approach, Brendan Bordelon reports.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BREAKING RAHM EMANUEL’S MIDDLE FINGER — “White House told U.S. ambassador to Japan to stop taunting China on social media,” by NBC’s Carol Lee, Courtney Kube and Peter Nicholas

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — “U.S. offers nearly half-a-million Venezuelan migrants legal status and work permits following demands from strained cities,” by CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez

HOT ON THE LEFT — “Biden uses executive power to create a New Deal-style American Climate Corps,” by AP’s Matthew Daly

TRUMP CARDS

THE FULTON DEFENSE — “Three Republicans who cast Electoral College votes for Donald Trump after the 2020 presidential election were acting as federal officers and doing what the law allowed, defense lawyers told a federal judge on Wednesday,” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Bill Rankin and David Wickert report.

GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging