By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DON’T QUIT YOUR DAY JOB — “Rep. Ken Buck eyes CNN job while criticizing Biden impeachment inquiry,” by NY Post’s Steven Nelson: “Buck, 64, confirmed to The Post he’s exploring his options and said it would be ‘great’ to join CNN. … The congressman called back later in the day to say that he had also expressed interest in a position at right-leaning Fox News or Newsmax. ‘I didn’t want to give you the impression that I’ve only talked to folks at CNN, on the left. I’ve also talked to others about this,’ Buck said.”

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is meeting today with the Problem Solvers Caucus, which is trying to assemble a bipartisan deal to keep the government open. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

DEMS PREP FOR A CERTAIN SHUTDOWN — Government funding lapses in less than 11 days, and a shutdown has never seemed so certain.

The House is completely frozen. A tight group of far-right rebels appears determined to thwart any plan Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY puts together to fund the government — a hostage situation put on full display yesterday when five Republicans joined Democrats to tank a procedural vote on Pentagon spending.

Is there a Plan B? Or C, or D? No one seems to know. “We’re basically at the ‘throw everything at the wall and see what sticks’ stage,” one senior GOP aide told Playbook last night.

But rather than dwell on GOP dysfunction this morning — you’ve read plenty about that already this week, and there will be plenty more to come — we thought we’d drill down on Democrats and how they are looking at the shutdown battle ahead.

We spoke to multiple Democratic members and aides last night, and this much they know: There will be a shutdown. Yesterday’s floor meltdown confirmed to them that the only remaining question is how long it will be.

The dynamics are simple, in their minds: Any solution will, by definition, involve Democrats, and Mccarthy is in no position to do anything with Democrats in the next 11 days — and, maybe, for many weeks after that.

Yes, Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES has been in frequent contact with McCarthy (not negotiations, just contact). Yes, Jeffries is meeting today with the Problem Solvers Caucus, which is trying to assemble a bipartisan deal to keep the government open.

But those moves are more about ending a shutdown than avoiding one. There’s been no meaningful work, we’re told, toward a solution.

“If [McCarthy] has to let some blood out and shut the government down, OK. But we all know that ultimately what's going to happen is going to be some sort of bipartisan deal here,” one Democratic member told us.

Democrats are now strategizing about what that deal ultimately looks like, and they’ve agreed on one thing: It’s going to look a lot like what Republicans already agreed to.

As our colleagues Jennifer Haberkorn and Adam Cancryn write this morning, White House aides “have settled on a hard-line strategy aimed at pressuring McCarthy to stick to a spending deal he struck with Biden back in May rather than attempt to patch together a new bipartisan bill.”

Those spending levels, you’ll recall, were hailed by McCarthy as “the biggest spending cut in American history” and a “major victory” for the GOP before a conservative backlash forced him to walk away from it.

“The White House and Democrats negotiated in good faith with Speaker McCarthy, shook hands, and reached a deal this summer to prevent the very quagmire in which America now finds itself,” another House Democrat texted us last night. “The only thing Democrats should be more vocal about is our disgust that the deal was so brazenly breached.”

With Democrats on the Hill happy to sing from the Biden administration’s hymnal, partisans on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are sitting back, watching the chaos and working their damndest to make sure that no matter what happens, Republicans bear the blame for the shutdown.

That means the messaging memos are starting to fly: The White House this morning sent a missive to the Hill laying out the tangible costs of a shutdown, from unpaid servicemembers to delayed infrastructure projects. And in previously unreported talking points sent out yesterday, House Democratic leaders boiled things down to this: “Extreme MAGA Republicans are plotting a shutdown, pursuing partisan impeachment. … House Democrats are putting People Over Politics to grow the middle class.”

The bigger question facing Democrats on the Hill revolves around the other big threat looming over the House — the promise that McCarthy’s critics will file a motion to remove him as speaker should he cut a deal with Democrats to fund the government.

We’ve picked up chatter about what a lifeline might look like: securing passage of a clean stopgap and a bipartisan 2024 appropriations process, for instance, in return for Democrats standing down on a motion to vacate the speakership.

But don’t believe the hype. Even if McCarthy were inclined toward such an agreement — it would poison his ability to lead Republicans — Democrats are hardly in alignment.

There might be “a world where people vote present or vote to table,” one member told us, but Rep. GERRY CONNOLLY (D-Va.) put it this way: “I like him as a person, but why would I want Kevin McCarthy to continue as speaker?”

GARLAND VS. GOP — In just a few hours, AG MERRICK GARLAND appears before the House Judiciary Committee for the first time in nearly two years, in what promises to be a long and fiery hearing.

For a preview, check out what Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) posted to X last night: A three-minute video on the HUNTER BIDEN case titled, “Why hasn’t the DOJ been square with us?”

Expect Jordan and his GOP allies to press Garland on everything from DAVID WEISS, the special counsel investigating Hunter Biden, to his communications with President JOE BIDEN, to the department’s scrutiny of ELON MUSK and, of course, the investigations into former President DONALD TRUMP.

And here’s a taste of what you’ll hear from Garland …

“Our job is not to do what is politically convenient,” the AG is expected to say, according to prepared remarks. “Our job is not to take orders from the president, from Congress, or from anyone else, about who or what to criminally investigate.

“As the president himself has said, and I reaffirm here today: I am not the president's lawyer. I will also add that I am not Congress’s prosecutor. The Justice Department works for the American people.”

That stout defense of the DOJ’s independence comes as attacks on not just the department but individual prosecutors pile up from Republicans defending Trump’s multiple indictments.

And, if you read between the lines, it also serves as a response to the Democrats who complained the DOJ took too long in prosecuting Trump.

Related read: “Garland to testify before Congress, with his record in the spotlight,” by WaPo’s Perry Stein and Devlin Barrett

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A message from Meta:

VR puts molecular structures in the palms of students’ hands.

Suffolk University students use the metaverse to observe molecular structures in 3D—enhancing their learning of how molecules work. With Nanome's VR platform, students can measure molecular distance, change atomic structures and mutate enzymes with the wave of a hand.

Explore the impact.

JUST POSTED — NY Mag has the first excerpt from Michael Wolff’s new book, “The Fall: The End of Fox News and the Murdoch Dynasty” ($29.99). The piece focuses heavily on the Murdoch family’s dealings with TUCKER CARLSON — including talky new details on how Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS fell out of Carlson’s favor.

It was, Wolff reports, due to the “SUSIE CARLSON test” — conducted in the Carlson home to the standards of his well-mannered wife — and DeSantis “failed it miserably.”

“Impersonal, cold, uninterested in anything outside of himself. The Carlsons are dog people with four spaniels, the progeny of other spaniels they have had before, who sleep in their bed. DeSantis pushed the dog under the table. Had he kicked the dog? Susie Carlson’s judgment was clear: She did not ever want to be anywhere near anybody like that ever again. Her husband agreed. … Forget Ron DeSantis.”

Reminder … As CNN’s Oliver Darcy notes: “Wolff may not be the most reliable narrator.”

Illustration by Mojo Wang for POLITICO

ANTI-VAXX POPULI — The Biden administration once vowed to restore Americans’ faith in public health. But with the rise of characters like ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., the White House has “grown increasingly paralyzed over how to combat the resurgence in vaccine skepticism, with no coordinated plan for countering a movement that’s steadily expanded its influence on the president’s watch,”our colleague Adam Cancryn writes.

“The rising appeal of anti-vaccine activism underscored by Kennedy’s campaign and fueled by prominent factions of the GOP has horrified federal health officials, who blame it for seeding dangerous conspiracy theories and bolstering a Covid-era backlash to the nation’s broader public health practices.

But with Biden’s reelection campaign centered on his vision for a post-pandemic America, there’s little interest among his aides in courting a high-profile vaccine fight — and even less of an idea of how to win."

Stay tuned: This is the first story in a five-part series diving deep into the rise of the anti-vaccine political movement. Follow along here for new installments each day this week.

A message from Meta:

On the Hill

The Senate is in.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. and at noon. AG MERRICK GARLAND will testify before the Judiciary Committee at 10 a.m.

3 things to watch …

1. Whatever hopes the Senate has for breaking its own appropriations logjam and proceeding with a three-bill “minibus” come down to a 12:45 p.m. test vote on overcoming an objection from conservative Republicans who want to take up spending bills one at a time. If 67 senators agree, they could be debating the bill by dinnertime. If not, back to the drawing board.
   
2. A day before Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY arrives on the Hill, senators will be treated to a 5 p.m. classified briefing on Ukraine from a star-studded cast including DNI AVRIL HAINES, CIA Director BILL BURNS, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY, among others. 
   
3. As Garland gets grilled this morning, his Cabinet compadre PETE BUTTIGIEG will be getting an inquisition of his own just down the hall in Rayburn. Republicans are signaling they will use the 10 a.m. House Transportation and Infrastructure oversight hearing not only to quiz the Transportation Secretary about stalled projects, air traffic disruptions and supply chain issues but also an audit concerning Buttigieg’s use of government planes.

At the White House

Biden is in New York, where he will participate in separate bilateral meetings with Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA, and later will participate in two campaign receptions. Afterward, he will return to the White House.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will participate in a conversation at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Leadership Conference moderated by actor JOHN LEGUIZAMO in the evening.

GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.

CONGRESS

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks with reporters at the Capitol, Sept. 18, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

McCARTHY’S MESS — McCarthy punted plans for a vote on the GOP’s short-term spending plan later this week, “the latest sign of the ultraconservative fever gripping House Republicans,” Sarah Ferris, Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney write. “McCarthy is now left without a viable plan to fund the government, with just 12 days left to avoid a shutdown.”

The blow-by-blow: “A group of nearly two dozen Republicans from across the conference huddled in a GOP leadership suite midday Tuesday to seek a way out of their bind.” Earlier in the day, “Republicans lined up at the microphone to voice their irritation with more than a dozen colleagues who oppose the proposed GOP stopgap spending bill — a package of spending cuts and stricter border policies.”

The escape hatch: “Some Republicans are seriously considering getting behind a shell bill that could, as soon as next week, serve as the vehicle that allows moderates to supersede McCarthy’s control of the House floor and force a vote to keep the government open,” WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Paul Kane and Amy Wang report.

The view from the WSJ editorial board: “We’d be happy to support spending brinkmanship if it served some achievable goal. But taking responsibility for shutting down the government is a sure political loser.”

More top reads:

• New testimony from FBI and IRS officials is casting doubt on the IRS whistleblower’s claims in the criminal investigation of HUNTER BIDEN’s taxes, CNN’s Annie Grayer and Jeremy Herb report. The officials told House investigators they didn’t recall Weiss saying what the whistleblower claimed about DOJ interference.

• Nearly every GOP senator sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER yesterday in protest of the recent decision to loosen the chamber’s dress code, which they wrote “disrespects the institution.” The three who didn’t sign: Sens. MIKE BRAUN (Ind.), KATIE BRITT (Ala.) and JOSH HAWLEY (Mo.). Read the scoop from Ursula Perano and Burgess Everett … Read the letter

2024 WATCH

IN THE STRIKE ZONE — Trump’s play to appear with union members amid the ongoing UAW strike is raising alarms among Democrats, Holly Otterbein reports. “Democrats close to the White House said they saw Trump’s trip as a plainly cynical ploy to gain political advantage from the current United Auto Workers strike at three plants.

“But they also worry it is a sign that the ex-president had a more sophisticated campaign than in previous cycles — and that Biden’s operation needs to step it up.” Privately, Biden’s team has “weighed whether to dispatch a top lieutenant to the picket line to stand alongside the UAW workers, according to two people familiar with those discussions.”

TOP-ED — “The United Auto Workers Is Overplaying Its Hand, Risking Our Economy and the Election,” by Steven Rattner in NYT

More top reads:

• The Biden campaign is hiring hundreds of people to fight misinformation, Rebecca Kern reports, while making a critical change in how it will handle false social media posts in the 2024 presidential cycle: Counter-advertising.
  
• Despite DeSantis’ concerted effort to win over voters in Iowa, Trump is blitzing the Hawkeye State “in a clear attempt to scupper Mr. DeSantis’s bid for the presidency with a resounding victory in the Jan. 15 caucuses,” NYT’s Nicholas Nehamas writes.
  
• “Ron DeSantis thinks pot is a menace to society. His biggest backer is working to legalize it,” by Alex Isenstadt

A message from Meta:

MORE POLITICS

Sen. Steve Daines speaks with reporters in his office at NRSC headquarters in Washington. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THREADING THE NEEDLE — Sen. STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) is on a mission as NRSC chair, trying to win his candidates the support of both Trump and the D.C. establishment — all while the NRSC takes a far more heavy-handed approach to primaries. But the tricky tightrope isn’t worrying Daines, he told our colleagues Ally Mutnick and Burgess Everett in an exclusive sitdown.

“I have a strong relationship with President Trump, a strong relationship with MITCH McCONNELL,” Daines said in an interview at his NRSC office. “The common objective they both have is to win control of the United States Senate back and put it back in Republican hands.”

More top reads:

• NARAL Pro-Choice America has rebranded as Reproductive Freedom for All, NYT’s Lisa Lerer reports, “a switch that illustrates the issue’s shifting politics after the Supreme Court overturned federal abortion rights.”

• He’s the first Arab-American, Muslim mayor of a fast-growing Michigan city — and he doesn’t want to be the last. Dearborn’s ABDULLAH HAMMOUD discusses city power, policing and how the Democratic Party can avoid blowing the Midwest in 2024 in an interview with our colleague Liz Crampton.

• “Georgia’s Kemp takes a victory lap as Democrats scramble on UAW strike fallout,” by Brittany Gibson, James Bikales and Zach Montellaro

THE WHITE HOUSE

HUNTER SEASON — Hunter Biden is pleading not guilty to the federal firearm charges against him following the collapse of his previous plea deal in the case, AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst writes.

HEADS UP — “Biden to announce first-ever federal office of gun violence prevention,” by Myah Ward

THE ECONOMY

PRE-FED READING — “The Fed’s surprise ally in the fight against inflation,” by Victoria Guida … “Gas Prices Have Crept Higher This Summer, a Challenge for the Fed,” by NYT’s Santul Nerkar … “What to Watch at Wednesday’s Meeting,” by WSJ’s Nick Timaraos

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

NORTHERN EXPOSURE — Biden’s effort to partner with India to counter China’s global influence has been complicated by Canada’s assertion that India is responsible for the assassination of a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia. The White House is “waiting for the formal investigation to conclude before weighing in, but it pushed back on criticism that the United States is trying to avoid antagonizing India because of its important strategic role,” WaPo’s Yasmeen Abutaleb, Ellen Nakashima and Gerry Shih report, citing a senior administration official.

THE ART OF THE DEAL — “Biden Aides and Saudis Explore Defense Treaty Modeled After Asian Pacts,” by NYT’s Edward Wong and Mark Mazzetti: “Under such an agreement, the United States and Saudi Arabia would generally pledge to provide military support if the other country is attacked in the region or on Saudi territory.”

GERSHKOVICH LATEST — “Russian Court Declines to Consider WSJ Reporter Evan Gershkovich’s Detention Appeal,” by WSJ’s Ann Simmons

GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Cap