By PHELIM KINE and STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we assess the political ambitions of Taiwan's ambassador to the U.S., report on the House Select Committee on China's first ever subpoena and assess the latest effort to prod Beijing into using its influence on Russia to press for an end to Putin's war on Ukraine. And in the wake of President Joe Biden's G20 meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, we profile a book that argues that China's Belt and Road Initiative investments in South Asia have helped stoke "overtly pro-China political leanings in the region at the expense of India's traditional influence."
Let's get to it. — Phelim
Taiwan's ambassador mulls vice-presidential bid
Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the U.S., Bi-khim Hsiao, may be mulling her most consequential career move yet: whether to become the vice-presidential running mate for Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party's Lai Ching-te.
Lai, who is currently vice president, holds a double-digit lead in the polls ahead of the island's Jan. 13 elections, putting Hsiao on a glide path to higher office if she takes the plunge. And there is a growing consensus among Taiwan watchers that she'll do precisely that.
Hsiao's advantage: There are no other obvious contenders for the job. And Hsiao teased the months of furious speculation about her political ambitions in August during Lai's stopover in New York City with a photo posted on X (formerly Twitter) of her and Lai in matching New York Mets shirts. Lai's shirt had number one on it, Hsiao's had number eleven (or two ones, depending on your perspective). Hsiao's post referenced "passion for baseball." Observers of Taiwan saw a signal of intent.
"She understood that supporters would love this possibility," of a vice presidential run, said Fan Yun, a lawmaker in Hsiao's Democratic Progressive Party. The photo suggests "a partnership-in-formation … and mutual admiration and mutual interest," said Jason Hsu, former legislator-at-large for Taiwan's opposition KMT party and a visiting fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center.
Taiwan-based U.S. observers say the Hsiao-Lai photo confirmed expectations back home that she will be Lai's running mate. "The rumors I’ve been hearing for some time now are that that was going to happen," said William Stanton, a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan, the State Department's unofficial outpost on the island.
The Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington, the self-governing island's diplomatic outpost, declined to comment about Hsiao's plans. And Hsiao herself dodges questions about her future. "I'm focused on doing my current job in representing Taiwan in Washington," Hsiao told reporters in May, a line she repeated in an interview with Bloomberg last week.
Hsiao would be a huge asset to Lai's campaign. She is a graduate of Oberlin College and Columbia University and a former legislator in the island's parliament. She is a close confidant of outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, who made her a National Security Council senior adviser in 2020. Since becoming TECRO chief later that same year she has finessed networking with federal lawmakers and key Capitol Hill groupings including the conservative GOP Main Street Caucus and the GOP Congressional China Task Force. Beijing has labeled her an "independence diehard" and sanctioned her twice since 2022.
"She’s got very strong Taiwan roots, but also an understanding of and connections with Taiwan’s essential partner, Washington," said Steve Young, another former Taipei-based director of the American Institute in Taiwan. That benefits Lai because "he has less American experience," Young said.
Hsiao could help Lai push back on Beijing's efforts to demonize him as a threat to peace. "China is working hard to define Lai in Washington, D.C. as a "troublemaker," said Rupert J. Hammond-Chambers, president of the Washington, D.C.-based US-Taiwan Business Council. Hsiao brings "relationships and trust" to help counter that, Hammond-Chambers said.
Hsiao's willingness to leave her pivotal role in the U.S.-Taiwan relationship at a time of worsening saber rattling by Beijing remains unclear. "They love her on Capitol Hill, she has been a star — she’s got more going for her in the U.S. to give up than most people who would be running for vice president," said Douglas Paal, who was director of the American Institute in Taiwan under President George W. Bush.
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TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— CHINA SELECT COMMITTEE ISSUES FIRST SUBPOENA: The House Select Committee on China issued its first-ever subpoena last week as part of its probe into the operations of a Reedley, California laboratory owned by Prestige Biotech and Universal Meditech Inc., POLITICO's Olivia Beavers reported on Wednesday. The Chinese-owned firm — which produced tests for coronavirus and pregnancy — attracted official scrutiny after safety inspectors found the facility littered with rodent feces and infectious pathogens earlier this year. The subpoena requires Reedley city officials to surrender relevant documents and records, a person close to the committee told Beavers.
— SCHUMER IS CHINA-BOUND NEXT MONTH: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will lead a bipartisan congressional delegation to China, Japan and South Korea as early as next month, per press reports on Tuesday. Schumer is a prominent congressional China hawk who has led on legislation including the CHIPS and Science Act designed to counter Beijing's perceived threat to the U.S. Schumer and his CODEL might bump into California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), who will also travel to China in October to discuss climate change cooperation, POLITICO's Blanca Begert reported on Tuesday.
— CANADIAN LAWMAKER WARNS ON CHINESE INFLUENCE: Canadian opposition Conservative Party lawmaker Michael Chong came to Capitol Hill this week to warn of Chinese government influence operations north of the border, POLITICO's Kyle Duggan reported on Wednesday. Chong was the victim of a possible Beijing-backed disinformation campaign on China's WeChat social media platform earlier this year. That was just one of "numerous incidents of transnational repression we've seen directed by the People's Republic of China" against people in Canada, Chong told a hearing of the Congressional Executive Commission on China on Tuesday. Those comments follow Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's assessment last week that there's no space for "rapprochement" between Ottawa and Beijing anytime soon.
— CYBER COMMAND TARGETS CHINA'S 'MALICIOUS' ACTIVITIES: The U.S. Cyber Command's new cyber strategy warns that Beijing is conducting "malicious" cyber operations against the U.S. That marks a shift from its 2018 assessment that confined criticism of China to intellectual property theft and its larger "strategic threat" profile, POLITICO's Maggie Miller and Lara Seligman reported on Tuesday. China's threat to the U.S. includes the likelihood of "destructive cyberattacks against the U.S. Homeland" in the event of a U.S.-China conflict, the strategy said.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
— EU GOES AFTER CHINESE E-CARS: The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, on Wednesday launched a long-awaited anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles produced in China. According to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, "Global markets are now flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars. And their price is kept artificially low by huge state subsidies. This is distorting our market."
The two leading capitals concur: "If these subsidies do not comply with the rules of the World Trade Organization, Europe must be able to fight back," French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said. His German counterpart, Robert Habeck, also called for "unfair competition" to be resolved, as his Green Party consistently takes a skeptical view on Beijing.
German auto giants fear trade war: The announcement is warmly welcomed (and pushed for) by France, which has a much smaller share of the Chinese car market than Germany. Many German automakers fear retribution in China should the trade war escalate. The other key concern is that Beijing would disrupt the supply of EV batteries, which are mainly manufactured in China. For now, the biggest indicator would be whether Beijing will postpone or cancel a planned trip for the EU's Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis to visit China on September 25. Joshua Posaner, Barbara Moens and Stuart have this story.
— U.K. SPY SCANDAL FOLLOW-UP: The British parliamentary researcher who was arrested on suspicion of spying for China met a U.K. government minister earlier this year to discuss a key piece of legislation, our colleague Eleni Courea in London reports. The man, in his 20s, accompanied a Tory MP to a meeting with Cabinet Office minister Alex Burghart to discuss the procurement bill. The meeting was to discuss demands by some MPs to make the legislation — which set rules on companies competing for government contracts — tougher on firms based in China. The bill was strengthened following lawmakers' pressure and was due to be approved by the House of Commons this week. The researcher has not been charged with any crime and insists through his lawyers that he is completely innocent. He was released on police bail until October.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
— TAIWAN SLAMS ELON MUSK'S CHINA COMMENTS: Taiwan's government has scolded Tesla CEO Elon Musk for parroting the Chinese government's sovereignty claims to the self-governing island. Musk compared China's relationship to Taiwan to that of Hawaii and the continental U.S. and called the island "an integral part of China that is arbitrarily not part of China" in an appearance on the All-In Podcast on Wednesday. "Listen up, #Taiwan is not part of the #PRC & certainly not for sale!" Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu responded in a post on Musk's X social media platform.
— CHINA TALKS UKRAINE WITH VATICAN, RUSSIA: Beijing will discuss Russia's war on Ukraine with senior officials from the Vatican and Russia over the next week. "Cardinal Matteo Zuppi is coming to China as Pope Francis' special envoy to seek peace in Ukraine — Li Hui, special representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs, will meet with him," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday for "a thorough exchange of views on the issue of the Ukrainian settlement," Russian state media reported. Mao declined to confirm that report. Beijing unveiled a 12-point "Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" in February which asserted vague support for "ceasing hostilities," but Beijing hasn't taken any substantive steps to help to end the war.
— TAIWAN'S MILITARY TOUTS UKRAINE LESSONS: Taiwan's latest summary of its defensive military strategy — its first since 2021 — leans heavily on the deterrence lessons of Ukraine's struggle against Russia. "Even a totalitarian regime may fear wading deeper into a quagmire of war, like Putin's nightmare," said the Republic of China National Defense Report published on Tuesday. The report implicitly references the Taiwanese military's recognition that a successful defense of the island will require the assistance of foreign countries including the U.S. "As an invariable principle of national defense, we shall help ourselves first, and then others may come to our aid," the report said.
— CHINA'S ACQUITTAL RATE HITS NEW LOW: Criminal defendants in China have an increasingly narrow chance of avoiding prison time. China's criminal acquittal rate slid to a two-decade low of 0.04 percent in 2022, according to an analysis of official data by the nonprofit Duihua Foundation published on Tuesday. That compares to a 0.4 percent acquittal rate in federal criminal cases in the U.S. and a 0.1 percent acquittal rate in Japanese criminal prosecutions. The data shows how "Xi Jinping has weaponized the Chinese justice system," to the ruling Chinese Communist Party's benefit, said John Kamm, Dui Hua Foundation founder. "China is a country ruled by law, where there must be laws to go by, the laws must be observed and strictly enforced, and lawbreakers must be prosecuted," the Chinese embassy's spokesperson, Liu Pengyu, said in response.
**Deciphering defense policy decisions daily isn't for everyone – which is why POLITICO Pro Defense will do it for you. On October 10, we launch a new policy service, providing you with the inside track on the politics behind key defense decisions. Learn more.**
HEADLINES
The Spectator: I'd be the perfect communist shill
The Atlantic: Xi Jinping is done with the established world order
Agence France Press: China’s Uyghur villages hide their secrets after Xinjiang crackdown
HEADS UP
— TAIWAN'S KMT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE VISITING U.S.: The presidential candidate for Taiwan's opposition KMT, or Nationalist party, Hou You-yi, lands in New York City today to kick-off an eight-day outreach tour. That trip will include stops at think tanks and meetings with U.S. lawmakers, Taiwan state media reported. A U.S.-based KMT representative confirmed to China Watcher Hou's imminent arrival but didn't provide details of his itinerary. Latest polls for the four-way presidential race have Hou trailing ruling Democratic Progressive Party Vice-President and presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, but slightly ahead of former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je and electronics manufacturing giant founder Terry Gou.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS/span>
| Shantanu Roy-Chaudhury |
The Book: The China Factor: Beijing's Expanding Engagement in Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, and Myanmar
The Author: Shantanu Roy-Chaudhury is a research associate at the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi where he focuses on China's foreign policy.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
China's relations with India's neighbors will become an increasingly dominant and vexatious aspect of India-China bilateral relations already roiled by a long-standing boundary dispute.
China has been increasing its involvement in domestic politics in South Asia and deepening its military cooperation with countries including Sri Lanka and Bangladesh via Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure investments. This has fed overtly pro-China political leanings in the region at the expense of India's traditional influence, complicating already fraught ties between Beijing and New Delhi.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
The extent to which China is willing to forgo economic returns for strategic gains and increasing influence in India's neighborhood. Several Chinese investments in Sri Lanka, including a new international airport and the tallest office tower in South Asia, are economically ruinous white elephant projects geared to curry political favor rather than financial gain.
What are the challenges to the Biden administration's efforts to counter China's growing influence in South Asia?
China's South Asia engagement has helped boost India-U.S. collaboration through the Quad as well as bilateral defense and economic ties.
But China's infrastructure investments through the BRI have significantly increased China's influence in Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh which will complicate U.S. efforts to engage them as partners in pursuit of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. China has already warned Bangladesh against joining the Quad and pressured Sri Lanka against accepting U.S. government Millennium Challenge Corporation developmental assistance grants .
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at [email protected].
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Olivia Beavers, Maggie Miller, Lara Seligman, Kyle Duggan, Joshua Posaner, Barbara Moens, Eleni Courea, Blanca Begert and digital producers Tara Gnewikow and Fiona Lally. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at [email protected] and [email protected].
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