By Eli Okun and Rachael Bade

“The American people deserve to know their public offices are not for sale,” Speaker Kevin Mccarthy said in announcing a Joe Biden impeachment inquiry. | Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Photo

IMPEACHMENT RETURNS — Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY today announced the historic decision to open an impeachment inquiry into President JOE BIDEN over allegations of bribery and corruption that so far have not been backed up by public evidence.

“The American people deserve to know their public offices are not for sale,” McCarthy said at the Capitol, as he directed the Oversight, Judiciary and Ways & Means committees to investigate the president’s family’s dealings and finances. He called the claims “serious and credible,” and said he “did not make this decision lightly.” Read Sarah Ferris and Jordain Carney’s ledeall for all the details

The formal probe is beginning without a vote on the House floor — despite McCarthy’s explicit pledges as recently as this month that he wouldn’t do just that. As Rachael detailed last month, this is a neat bit of hypocrisy after he excoriated then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI for pulling the same move against DONALD TRUMP in 2019.

But ultimately, it seems, McCarthy didn’t have the votes to open the inquiry amid skepticism from frontline and moderate members — and he was facing serious pressure from the far right, with the threat of the motion to vacate dangling like a sword of Damocles. But it isn’t clear whether the inquiry will be enough of a pressure relief valve to keep the restive right in line as McCarthy rolls toward a showdown over funding to keep the government open. Conference meetings tomorrow and Thursday will provide some clues, but Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) already warned on the floor this afternoon that he may force regular votes to remove McCarthy.

That’s the faction McCarthy has to worry about, because the moderates tend toward, well, moderation, squishiness and loyalty to the speaker. Even Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) told Olivia Beavers that while he doesn’t support the inquiry now, he might vote for it if the White House fails to produce documents Republicans want.

“I think it would be more surprising if he wasn’t pushing ahead with this,” a senior Republican aide told Playbook. “McCarthy will bring in all the mods and tell them this isn’t impeachment and convince them to vote for this, and they will because they’re moderates and they always do what leadership tells them to do in the end. It’s totally [predictable]. When Gaetz speaks, McCarthy reacts exactly as Gaetz wants him to. Gaetz said as much right after the final speaker vote.”

Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) and Gaetz were already squabbling over which of them should get credit for the inquiry.

The writing’s been on the wall that the House GOP was headed for this, which is at once a major escalation and an off-ramp of sorts, at least for now, from voting outright on articles of impeachment. Impeachment fervor has been growing among the Republican base, motivated by antipathy toward Biden and particularly as a counterweight to the legal proceedings against Trump. Over the August recess, McCarthy told Spectrum News’ Cassie Semyon, “we found out a lot of new things” about the probe (including, perhaps, just how badly GOP voters wanted it, as Semafor’s Dave Weigel has documented).

The start of an inquiry also reflects how quickly impeachment has been downgraded from an ultra-rare proceeding to a political weapon in Congress: House Republicans have yet to turn up a smoking gun that would substantiate high crimes and misdemeanors or link the president to money HUNTER BIDEN received in Ukraine and China. The GOP argues that the inquiry will give the panels more opportunity to dig deeper into the matter.

Some Democrats reacted by rubbing their hands at the prospect of McCarthy forcing his swing-seat incumbents into a vulnerable position if Republicans overplay their hand. But this is nonetheless a major move against Biden that could make him more vulnerable politically and put Hunter’s struggles front and center.

It’s a tale as old as time, or at least January 2023, all in all: The hard right prevails, McCarthy goes back on his word to hold on to power, moderates roll over, and the whole thing is likely headed nowhere in the Senate. More from Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano on the Senate GOP’s slightly-less-skeptical-than-usual reaction

Related reads: “GOP lawmaker faces blowback from Republicans over anti-impeachment stance,” by CNN’s Melanie Zanona and Annie Grayer on Rep. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.) … “Biden impeachment push puts vulnerable California Republicans in a tough spot,” by the L.A. Times’ Erin Logan

For the latest on the Hill: Check out Inside Congress Live, POLITICO’s latest repository for all the Hill coverage you want — including up-to-the-moment coverage of the impeachment inquiry, spending bills and more.

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at [email protected].

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THE ECONOMY

INCOMES DOWN, CHILD POVERTY UP — In 2022, for the third year in a row, inflation-adjusted incomes fell in the U.S., per new Census Bureau data out today, WSJ’s Gwynn Guilford and Paul Overberg report. The median household income dropped 2.3% from $76,330 to $74,580, as persistent inflation left Americans’ standard of living worse off overall. The good news: Economists expect that the trend is finally reversing this year.

And in a stunning demonstration of how federal decisions transform Americans’ lives, child poverty more than doubled from 5.2% to 12.4% in just one year. That brings the rate roughly back in line with pre-pandemic levels, before generous federal assistance during the pandemic slashed poverty across the country. Inflation and the rising cost of living pushed poverty higher. And Sen. JOE MANCHIN’s (D-W.Va.) and Republicans’ refusal to extend the expanded child tax credit, along with the expiration of other assistance programs, helped precipitate the increase. All the data

Big picture: “Biden’s war on poverty is unraveling fast,” writes Adam Cancryn. “Just two years after orchestrating the largest expansion of the U.S. safety net in a half-century, Biden’s $2 trillion bet that big-government policies could vastly improve life for the poorest Americans is coming to a close. The historic injection of pandemic-era aid was, by many measures, a clear success. And it may never happen again.”

CONGRESS

DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO — “Republicans Embrace Earmarked Cash,” by Bloomberg Government’s Giuseppe Macri and Brandon Lee: “Museums are out, locks and dams are in, and leading progressives such as [Rep.] ROSA DeLAURO [(D-Conn.)] are taking home less earmarked cash than Freedom Caucus Republicans like Matt Gaetz via a process the GOP considered scrapping as recently as last year.”

THANKS BUT NO THANKS — House Democrats tell Axios’ Andrew Solender they’re not interested in Gaetz’s idea of teaming up to oust McCarthy and install a new speaker. “If we vacated the chair, I don’t see a better speaker” happening, says Rep. STEVE COHEN (D-Tenn.).

FASCINATING PIECE OF SHUTDOWN HISTORY — “‘We Put in Air Conditionin’, Stayed Year-Round and Ruined America,’” by Nick Niedzwiadek in POLITICO Magazine: “Historically, lawmakers were loath to stay in Washington beyond the first six months or so of the year as the dew point climbed. But as their portfolio expanded and the wonders of air conditioning made the D.C. heat less oppressive by the 1930s, Congress stuck around longer. … But the shift in the calendar ultimately led to unforeseen consequences — including a tough new deadline to pass spending bills.”

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2024 WATCH

GLIMMER OF VULNERABILITY — Trump is still out way ahead in the Iowa GOP caucus according to a new Emerson poll, which finds him at 49% and his closest competitor, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, at 14%. But notably, Trump’s support has tumbled from 62% in May, while Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.), NIKKI HALEY and VIVEK RAMASWAMY have each risen to 7-8%.

Also striking: Biden’s support in the Democratic caucus has plunged since May from 69% to 50%, though neither of his competitors has gained. And in the general election, Trump leads Biden in the state by 11 points — or 13 with CORNEL WEST on the ballot — up from his 8-point victory in 2020.

CASH DASH — GOP megadonors are still dreaming of somebody to swoop in and save them from Trump, FT’s Alex Rogers reports. THOMAS PETERFFY, for one, is holding out hope for Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN — and urging friends not to support anyone until January to give Youngkin time to jump in.

TIGHTROPE WALK — Abortion is such a tricky issue for Trump to navigate in the primary that he’s sometimes called it “the A word” in private, The Messenger’s Tom LoBianco reports. With the GOP electorate somewhat divided over abortion bans, it’s easier for Trump to focus on other issues, even though he can claim credit for appointing the three Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.

FUN ONE — WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia has a new spin on the perennial question of Biden’s age: asking people born on the same day and year, or at least the half of them who haven’t died, what they think. The Nov. 20, 1942, crew has some mixed opinions, including warnings about health and higher risks after 80. But largely, they say they still lead full lives — and they think Biden isn’t too old to keep going. “They expressed frustrations about being underestimated because of their age, contending that 80-year-olds today are healthier and more active than ever.”

AD WARS — “Pro-Christie PAC Airs TV Ad Featuring Two GOP Favorites: Football and Reagan,” by The Messenger’s Stephanie Murray: “The 30-second spot is backed by a $500,000 New Hampshire ad buy.”

MORE POLITICS

BATTLE FOR THE STATES — Delaware Lt. Gov. BETHANY HALL-LONG announced today that she’s running for governor, the Delaware News Journal’s Meredith Newman reports. The First State stalwart has long been expected to take the leap for the top office in Dover. A former nurse who’s focused on mental health and substance abuse in office, Hall-Long is popular in the state, but she’ll face a contested primary against the better-funded New Castle County Executive MATT MEYER.

PRIMARY COLORS — AIPAC is stumbling in its efforts to recruit moderate challengers to progressive “Squad” House Democrats, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports. In some districts, potential candidates haven’t jumped in yet, and it’s not certain they will — like Minneapolis City Councilwoman LaTRISHA VETAW against Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) or Westchester County, N.Y., Executive GEORGE LATIMER against Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.). Even when pro-Israel groups do get the candidate they want — like BHAVINI PATEL against Rep. SUMMER LEE (D-Pa.) — crowded primaries could damage their chances. Meanwhile, House Dem leadership’s support for their incumbents gives the Squad a boost.

LOOK WHO’S BACK — Republican former Rep. MARK HARRIS is running for Congress again, this time in North Carolina’s 8th District, he announced today, per WSOC-TV. The solid red seat is being vacated as incumbent DAN BISHOP runs for state AG. Harris, a pastor, left Congress after his narrow 2018 victory was marred by a genuine election fraud scandal, though Harris himself was cleared in the probe that focused more on a contractor he hired.

SWING-SEAT SPLASH — Democrat JESSICA MORSE is jumping into the race against Rep. KEVIN KILEY (R-Calif.), The Sacramento Bee’s Jenavieve Hatch scoops. The vast 3rd District stretching from the Sacramento suburbs to Death Valley leans red, but has an outside chance at becoming competitive. Morse previously ran against Rep. TOM McCLINTOCK (R-Calif.) in 2018. She signals that she’ll focus on abortion, wildfires and school-board culture wars.

ON THE AIRWAVES — A new NRSC television ad aims to undercut Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) by linking him closely to Biden, The Washington Times’ Seth McLaughlin reports.

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE ABORTION LANDSCAPE — New legal filings today aim to chip away at, though not overturn outright, abortion bans in Idaho, Oklahoma and Tennessee, WaPo’s Frances Stead Sellers reports. The Center for Reproductive Rights brought the actions “on behalf of women who say they were denied abortion care in medical emergencies,” aiming to prove that exceptions to protect the health of women are insufficient in some cases.

POLICY CORNER

INTERESTING IDEA — “A bold new federal experiment in giving renters cash,” by Vox’s Rachel Cohen: “A group of researchers at the Department of Housing and Urban Development have been quietly developing an idea that could fundamentally upend the nearly 50-year-old housing voucher program … The idea is relatively simple: What if, instead of traditional housing vouchers laden with convoluted red tape that landlords notoriously hate, low-income tenants could pay their rent with cash?”

MAKING THE CUT — “Biden’s Education secretary looks to torch legacy admissions,” by Bianca Quilantan: “A challenge to Harvard University over legacy admissions allows MIGUEL CARDONA to address how selective institutions favor certain applicants.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

SO MUCH FOR THAT — The U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange agreement includes the unfreezing of $6 billion for Iran to access, which the U.S. has said will only be permitted for humanitarian purposes. But Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI told NBC’s Lester Holt that they’ll in fact spend the cash “wherever we need it … The Islamic Republic of Iran will decide what to do with this money.” Treasury says they’ll monitor each transaction through Qatar.

THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “The U.S is getting hacked. So the Pentagon is overhauling its approach to cyber,” by Maggie Miller and Lara Seligman: “Pentagon leaders have started opening up communications with other federal agencies and the private sector on cyber threats to elections and other critical systems, and increasing assistance to foreign allies. They’ve codified the changes in a new cybersecurity strategy.”

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — Daniel “Danny” Lee Cromer, a retired longtime staffer for Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), died Sept. 5 at 65. He also worked for the House Appropriations Committee and “was an iconic character on Capitol Hill.” Full obituary

SPOTTED having dinner together at Cafe Milano last night: Debra Messing, Jen Psaki, Adrienne Elrod and Mandana Dayani.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party for Andrew Yang and Stephen Marche’s new novel, “The Last Election” ($29.95), hosted by Jean and Steve Case at Revolution’s D.C. office last night: Rev. Wendy Hamilton, Maya MacGuineas, Walt Cronkite IV, Lindsey Drath, Rob Richie, Cynthia Terrell, Isaac Dovere, Jason Rezaian, Asma Uddin, Hannah Kim, Brakkton Booker, Lucy Campbell, Luke Burgis, Scott Thuman, Scott Santens, Aaron Goldzimer and Divyansh Kaushik.

TRANSITIONS — The Alpine Group is adding Patrick Satalin as VP and Helen Treadway as staff assistant. Satalin previously was chief of staff for then-Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) and helped oversee his Senate campaign. … Brian Hale is now VP of public relations at Booz Allen Hamilton. He most recently was a managing director for cybersecurity at FTI Consulting.

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