By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

WHAT PELOSI TOLD JMART — After announcing yesterday that she will run for reelection, Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) talked to Jonathan Martin about the decision:

“Pelosi was … sensitive to the suggestion that she wanted to see through [DONALD] TRUMP’s second, and perhaps final, defeat for the presidency. ‘My decisions in life are not predicated on his insanity,’ she said, but quickly added that ‘it’s important to make sure that our flag is still there.’”

Meanwhile in Maryland … Fellow octogenarian ex-Dem House leader STENY HOYER had this to say to Maryland Matters about his own reelection decision: “I can’t tell you because I don’t really know,” he said. “I’m going to take it a month at a time and we’ll see what happens.”

There’s a creeping concern among Democrats that the overall gestalt of a Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch may not be so much 2020 as it is 2016. | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

MORE DOUBTS ABOUT BIDEN — Pretty much everything has been said about President JOE BIDEN’s weaknesses as a 2024 candidate, though not everyone has said it. That has mostly been fixed this weekend as a torrent of pundits weigh in on the Biden question. Is it his age that’s the problem? Or the economy? Is it too late for a blue-state governor to replace him? Or is that wishful thinking by the bedwetting faction of the Democratic Party?

There’s lots to dig into below about where this conversation is moving, but there’s one thing we picked up in conversations this week that isn’t quite captured in the narrow debate about age and the economy. The theory of the case from Biden world is that Dems need not be concerned because 2024 is the election they know how to win. It’s a combination of 2020 and 2022 all over again — running against Trumpian extremism and the erosion of abortion rights.

But there’s a creeping concern among Democrats that the overall gestalt of a Biden-Trump rematch may not be so much 2020 as it is 2016.

What they mean by that is that Biden’s vulnerabilities risk being blown up as equivalent to Trump’s. In other words, what they would describe as Trump’s megalomaniac incompetence is no different than Biden’s alleged cognitive decline. That Trump’s dozens of criminal charges will get generally equated with HUNTER BIDEN’s legal issues. That the comparison of the Biden economy and the Trump economy becomes a wash at best. In this version of bedwetting, 2024 becomes another but-her-emails campaign rather than another MAGA-and-choice campaign.

This isn’t stated explicitly, but it’s the subtext of a lot of the doubts-about-Biden punditry out there.

— ANDREW SULLIVAN says it’s “time for Biden to leave the stage”:

“Making his campaign about resisting MAGA extremism — and barely campaigning in person because of Covid — worked last time. It won’t next year. The Establishment has had three years to paint Trump as a threat to democracy and a rogue, lawless maniac — and the failure to persuade the public at large of this is all around us. This is not for lack of material: the January 6 Committee did a great job; at least two of the indictments are damning to any neutral observer; and Trump’s behavior is still clearly deranged and getting crazier all the time.

“And yet the two candidates are basically neck-and-neck in the polls. What Trump has done — again! — is a form of jujitsu: he’s using the actions of law enforcement to empower his paranoid narrative of the establishment set against him. … His ability to survive and actually thrive these past three years is staggering. It’s part of a political genius his enemies continue to under-estimate.”

— BILL SCHER says not so fast, because attacks about age rarely work:

“Without question, we have several historically unusual factors. Biden is our first octogenarian president. … Biden also has to perform in a 24-7 media culture, so visible aspects of aging, such as his more prevalent stammer, can’t be hidden. Age will be an X-factor of unknown relevance until the votes are tallied.

“But it is also true that almost every time there is an age gap between the candidates, the younger candidate’s campaign tries to exploit it. And in each of those instances, age was not the factor that determined the outcome.

“Even today, we don’t have any firm evidence that concerns about Biden’s age are turning Democratic voters into Republican voters. Any softness in Biden’s level of support is more easily attributable to the lingering effects of high, albeit cooling, inflation, though it is difficult to separate the impact of age and inflation on Biden’s numbers.”

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— DAVID LAUTER puts his finger on a key difference between the two parties and their approach to their frontrunners:

“How we got to this point says a lot about where power lies in the two parties.

“On the Republican side, Trump’s grassroots support is overriding the deep misgivings of party leaders.

“Among Democrats, the reverse is true: Party leaders and elected officials have significantly more enthusiasm for Biden — or concern about the alternatives — than do average voters.”

— ROSS DOUTHAT explores the various theories for Biden’s unpopularity (age, the economy, Black and Hispanic Democrats drifting right on cultural issues, “the pall of private depression and general pessimism hanging over Americans”) and concludes with this pessimistic assessment:

“Biden got elected, in part, by casting himself as a transitional figure, a bridge to a more youthful and optimistic future. Now he needs some general belief in that brighter future to help carry him to re-election.

“But wherever Americans might find such optimism, we are probably well past the point that a decrepit-seeming president can hope to generate it himself.”

— JOE KLEIN, finally, has this warning for Democrats:

“Biden has done what he said he would. He’s been a solid ‘transitional’ President, but transition requires transit, a second act. We need to transition to something, a new Democratic vision of America — or to someone who can plausibly promise a creative way out of this molasses stasis. But Democrats are paralyzed. They’re terrified that a real conversation, a real political contest, will result in chaos — that Biden will collapse under pressure and there won’t be anyone credible to replace him. …

“But it’s the wrong concern. Democrats really should be terrified by the opposite: that nothing will change between now and [the] election, except Joe Biden will get older.”

INCIDENTALLY — “What an unprecedented Biden ad blitz says about his reelection fight,” by Steven Shepard: “The ads are striking for both their timing and their content. The election is still 423 days away, and Biden and an affiliate of his chief super PAC are already running TV ads in nearly every major battleground state — far earlier than normal for a presidential election. And instead of going on the attack, as super PACs usually do, the ads are trying to boost Biden’s image.”

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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GOOD DAY TO TAKE A BREAK FROM POLITICS — COCO GAUFF and ARYNA SABALENKA face off in the U.S. Open women’s final at 4 p.m. … The Texas-Bama game is at 7 p.m. … ISRAEL ADESANYA and SEAN STRICKLAND face off in the UFC World Middleweight Championship at 10 p.m.

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Donald Trump addresses a crowd of supporters yesterday at the South Dakota Republican Party Monumental Leaders rally in Rapid City, where he secured South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem's endorsement. | Toby Brusseau/AP Photo

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. BIG SETBACK FOR TRUMP WORLD: MARK MEADOWS’ attempt to move his Fulton County, Ga., prosecution from state to federal court was denied by a federal judge yesterday, which could have significant implications for all the racketeering defendants, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Tamar Hallerman and David Wickert report. It’s not over yet: Meadows plans to appeal. If Meadows successfully moved his case to federal court, where he could have a more favorable jury pool, Trump and other defendants would likely try to follow. But for now, this is an early and notable win for DA FANI WILLIS. The Obama-appointed judge found that Meadows’ alleged actions were outside the scope of his job as White House chief of staff.

2. BIG SETBACK FOR BIDEN ADMIN: The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled yesterday that top White House and CDC officials must remain limited in their contact with social media companies, finding that their coordination to stop misinformation violated the First Amendment. This case, too, is likely headed for appeal, Bloomberg’s Emily Birnbaum and Zoe Tillman report. The panel of three GOP-appointed judges found that the administration’s efforts overstepped free-speech bounds in their attempts to block Covid-19 lies from spreading. They did, however, narrow a lower-court judge’s initial ruling that prevented even more administration officials from talking to the social media platforms.

Related news: “X, formerly Twitter, sues California over content moderation law,” by the S.F. Chronicle’s Chase DiFeliciantonio

3. WATCHING LIKE A HAWKEYE: Iowa is the center of 2024 campaign-trail action today. Trump, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, VIVEK RAMASWAMY, North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM and ASA HUTCHINSON will all be at the Iowa-Iowa State football game in Ames and/or a county GOP tailgate party in nearby Nevada, AP’s Thomas Beaumont and Hannah Fingerhut report from Des Moines. And DeSantis’ campaign is geo-targeting an ad directly to people’s phones in the stadium that hammers Trump for having allowed transgender women to compete in Miss Universe, The Messenger’s Marc Caputo scoops.

But is anybody really in the driver’s seat in the pace-setting caucuses? Both of the frontrunners have some concerns:

• Trump allies are warning that his Iowa operation may not have the juice to secure a victory, NBC’s Dasha Burns and Katherine Boyle report. Even DONALD TRUMP JR. reportedly said the campaign needs “an adult in the room,” as key positions have gone unfilled and rival campaigns have built up strong operations. “Trump has left it to his campaign to establish a physical presence in the state — and it has been lacking.”
  
• But DeSantis’ campaign doesn’t exactly sound confident that they can swoop in and upstage him: Officials are now expectation-setting with our colleague Sally Goldenberg that they would see a “strong second-place showing” in the state as a victory.

4. THE PARTY BOSS STEPS IN: “Trump Is Said to Have Told Blake Masters He’d Lose Senate Primary to Kari Lake,” by NYT’s Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman: “Trump on Sunday called BLAKE MASTERS, the failed Arizona Senate candidate considering a second run next year, and told him he didn’t think Mr. Masters could win a primary race against KARI LAKE … [That] could indicate that Mr. Trump may endorse Ms. Lake.”

5. RAMASWAMY UNDER SCRUTINY: As he’s risen in the polls, Ramaswamy continues to face a barrage of tough stories about his unconstitutional ideas, exaggerations or flip-flops. To wit, just from yesterday:

• He said he would deport American-born children of undocumented immigrants — i.e., U.S. citizens — because he doesn’t believe in birthright citizenship, NBC’s Alex Tabet and Katherine Koretski report from Orange City, Iowa.
  
• His claims that he and his Strive Asset Management firm have held Disney’s feet to the fire on wokeness are “exponentially overblown,” The Daily Beast’s Jake Lahut finds. In reality, they “have done little to influence the company.”
  
• And Ramaswamy claimed yesterday that he’s believed since high school that life begins at conception, The Messenger’s Stephanie Murray reports from Carroll, Iowa — while just a few months ago on Fox, he said he thinks brain waves begin at six weeks. (His campaign counters that it’s a nuanced issue, and both can be true simultaneously.)

6. BIG NEWS OUT OF THE G20: “Biden, Modi and EU to announce rail and shipping project linking India to Middle East and Europe,” by AP’s Aamer Madhani and Josh Boak in New Delhi: It’s “a possible game changer for global trade … The project would include the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and other countries … It could also be one of the more ambitious counters to China’s massive infrastructure program.”

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7. HEADED FOR THE HIGH COURT: “Justice Dept and abortion pill manufacturer ask Supreme Court to hear case on mifepristone access,” by CBS’ Kathryn Watson: “Danco [Laboratories] and the Justice Department want the Supreme Court to reverse the circuit court's ruling that would prevent women from obtaining the drug by mail order and would prohibit the pill after seven weeks of pregnancy. … The Justice Department asserted in its filing Friday that the plaintiffs lack standing.”

8. STOP US IF YOU’VE HEARD THIS BEFORE: Having failed to arrest Trump’s rise, the class of GOP donors is anxious and rudderless, divorced from the wishes of the electorate and divided about who (if anyone) can stop him. It’s a story you read countless times in 2015/2016 … and here it is again in 2023, via NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien, who talks to many Republican donors and finds “hand-wringing, magical thinking, calls to arms and, for some, fatalism.” As wealthy donors lose sway in influencing the outcome, some worry that the only way Trump can be stopped from the nomination is through his legal troubles or some other deus ex machina.

9. GOING ONE STEP FURTHER: “U.S. likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time,” by ABC’s Matt Seyler: “‘They are coming,’ said one official who had access to security assistance plans. … A second official said the missiles are ‘on the table’ and likely to be included in an upcoming security assistance package … The administration has until now rejected Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s requests for the weapons … due to concerns both over escalation with Russia and of maintaining America’s own stockpiles.”

Related read: “In Ukraine, a U.S. Arms Dealer Is Making a Fortune and Testing Limits,” by NYT’s Justin Scheck and Thomas Gibbons-Neff in Kyiv

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies

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GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

— “Jan. 6 shattered her family. Now they’re trying to forgive,” by WaPo’s Dan Rosenzweig-Ziff in Plano, Texas: “Peyton Reffitt has watched her family come apart after her father joined the Capitol riot mob. Now she and her family are confronting the perceived betrayals and broken relationships.”

— “The Decomposition of Rotten Tomatoes,” by Vulture’s Lane Brown: “The most overrated metric in movies is erratic, reductive, and easily hacked — and yet has Hollywood in its grip.”

— “The Russians Are Getting Better,” by Margarita Konaev and Owen Daniels in Foreign Affairs: “What Moscow Has Learned in Ukraine.”

— “Why Does Duke Have So Few Low-Income Students?” by David Leonhardt in the NYT Magazine: “A case study in economic diversity at elite colleges.”

— “A Knockout Technique for Achieving More Happiness,” by The Atlantic’s Arthur Brooks: “The best lesson from Mike Tyson’s boxing career is not about ring craft; it’s about having the right goals in life.”

— “Her work paved the way for blockbuster obesity drugs. Now, she’s fighting for recognition,” by Science’s Jennifer Couzin-Frankel: “Svetlana Mojsov helped discover the hormone GLP-1. Why has she been excluded from its history?”

— “Can We Talk to Whales?” by The New Yorker’s Elizabeth Kolbert: “Researchers believe that artificial intelligence may allow us to speak to other species.”

— “The widow and the murderer: a friendship born of tragedy,” by the Guardian’s Giles Tremlett: “A decade after Maixabel Lasa’s husband was shot by Basque separatists, she received a message from one of his killers. He wanted to meet her.”

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Rachel Maddow marked 15 years of her MSNBC show.

Leo Bozell was found guilty on 10 Jan. 6-related counts.

Susan Rice is rejoining Netflix’s board.

Bernie Sanders can still play ball.

Donald Trump’s name is coming down from a Bronx golf course.

Maureen Dowd reminisces about her friendship with Jimmy Buffett.

OUT AND ABOUT — The Hispanic Heritage Foundation’s 36th annual Hispanic Heritage Awards honored Café Tacvba, Cesar Conde, Omar Apollo, Siete Family Foods and WISIN in a ceremony Thursday night at the Kennedy Center, hosted by Leslie Grace and set to air on PBS later this month.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Adam Cohen is joining the Office of National Drug Control Policy as deputy director. He most recently was director of the Executive Office of the Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces at DOJ. … Tori Taylor is joining the administration as special assistant to the president and director of political outreach, The Charlotte Observer’s Danielle Battaglia reports.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Tate Mitchell is joining the Department of Agriculture as chief of staff for the comms department. She currently is associate director of press operations for the VP.

MEDIA MOVE — Michael McAuliff is now a reporter at Modern Healthcare. He most recently was a contributor for the N.Y. Daily News and wrote frequently for KFF Health News, and is a HuffPost and ABC alum.

TRANSITION — Bruce Haynes is now SVP for corporate and external affairs at Charles River Laboratories. He most recently was partner and global co-chair of crisis comms and issues management at FGS Global.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) (6-0) … Reps. John Duarte (R-Calif.) and Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) … Matt Bai … WaPo’s Kara Voght ... HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn …