By Kimberly Leonard

Good morning and thanks for reading Playbook.  

A big question looming over South Florida is whether the 2022 Republican victory in Miami-Dade County was a fluke.

And one place to look for the answer is a race that’s technically nonpartisan: the role of Miami-Dade County mayor.

The latest: Republican Miami Lakes Mayor Manny Cid is challenging incumbent Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, a popular Democrat who flipped her seat blue in 2020. Cid is a restaurant owner and former Florida legislative aide, while Levine Cava is the first woman and first Jewish mayor of the county.

No sugarcoating: Keeping the seat, in Florida’s most populous county, is hugely important to Democrats, who hold a voter registration advantage there of just over 100,000 and have seen their ranks slip. Statewide, Republicans have a massive voter registration advantage.

“The Florida Democratic Party is fully invested in ensuring that we do not have a repeat of November 2022,” Democratic chair Nikki Fried said, adding that the party is registering voters in Miami-Dade County, among other things.

The shift: Gov. Ron DeSantis’ reelection helped carry the Hispanic-majority county for the first time in two decades amid low turnout for Democrats. But the inroads for Republicans started before him. Hillary Clinton won there by 29 points in 2016, but President Joe Biden won it by just 7 points in 2020.

“We aren’t stopping,” said Christian Ziegler, chair of the Republican Party of Florida. The party, he added, will focus on “universal school choice, parental rights and individual freedoms."

Cid’s bid: The Miami Lakes mayor, in an interview, stressed that he's running a Campaign focused on building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters while listing local issues such as the county's trash-rate hike — and he blamed the problems a bloated local bureaucracy.

“If it was only about Daniella Levine Cava, it becomes hard to even run,” he said. “This is about how the entire system needs reforming. It’s not her alone.”

Democrats are confident Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava will win reelection. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Dems’ take: Many state Democrats are confident that Levine Cava will prevail, calling her “battle tested” and asserting her popularity could even help Biden improve his turnout in the county. The mayoral race could be decided as early as August 2024 if a single candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote. Others in the race include Democrat Miguel Quintero, a trapeze artist, and Alex Otaola, a Republican social media influencer. More may follow.

“Daniella is not seen as just a Democrat,” former Rep. Donna Shalala (D-Fla.) said, drawing attention to the mayor’s background in child welfare. “She gets Republican and Independent votes, so I don’t think she's going to have a real problem getting reelected.”

Christian Ulvert, Levine Cava’s campaign adviser, said she is committed to “delivering solutions for longtime community challenges that were previously ignored.”

The big picture: Kevin Cate, a Florida Democratic operative, predicted Biden would win Miami-Dade but acknowledged that, for Democrats, 2022 was “about as bad as it could possibly get” and that Florida would need significant investment to be competitive for Democrats again.

“Miami-Dade will be blue again,” he predicted. “And statewide — does that mitigate the massive registration gap between Republicans and Democrats? It’s a very uphill battle.”

— WHERE'S RON? Fox News’ Jesse Watters will interview Gov. Ron DeSantis. The interview airs in the 7 p.m. EST hour.

At 8:20 a.m., 10 a.m. and noon, Fox News will also air an interview the governor did with Kayleigh Mcenany. The topics include Hurricane Idalia and “issues that matter to American women,” per X.

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CAT 4 — “Tropical Storm Lee strengthens on way to becoming powerful hurricane,” by Miami Herald’s Alex Harris: “Tropical Storm Lee formed in the Atlantic Tuesday afternoon just hours after first being named a depression, and it’s expected to strengthen to a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it nears the eastern Caribbean. An initial forecast track by the National Hurricane Center steer the storm in the general direction of the east coast, with a potential for a northern scrape of the Leeward and Virgin Islands over the weekend.”

— “D-SNAP for Florida: What to know about getting assistance following Hurricane Idalia,” by Fort Myers News-Press’ Samantha Neely

WORKER SHORTAGE — “DeSantis immigration law may worsen labor shortages in Florida as planting season begins,” by the Miami Herald’s Syra Ortiz Blanes: “A new state immigration law could worsen labor shortages in South Florida’s agricultural industry, a sector that heavily relies on migrant labor and struggles to find domestic workers, according to growers, immigrant workers and farmworker advocates.”

FIGHT FOR YOUR RIGHT — “'Right to Rock Act' seeks to protect artists' performances from social media censorship,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s James Call: “Rep. Joel Rudman, R-Navarre, wants to prohibit the cancellation of performances because of an artist’s social media comments or their political affiliation. HB 15 would forbid entertainment venues that have accepted taxpayer funding to cancel contracts for a live presentation by a singer, musicians, dancers, comedians, and actors for their social media behavior and/or politics.”

— “Florida lawmakers denounce antisemitic incidents over Labor Day weekend: 'Hate has no place here,'” by USA Today’s C.A. Bridges, Thao Nguyen and Rick Neale

— “Police order senator to stay off domestic abuse shelter property after confrontation,” by Daytona Beach News Journal’s Mark Harper

— “FL Dems speak out again against DeSantis’ suspension of Orange County prosecutor Monique Worrell,” by Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry

NOT CONVERTED — DeSantis built a massive network of big donors. Many have ditched him, by POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt and Jessica Piper: Of the 50 donors who gave at least $160,000 in the years leading up to his 2022 reelection campaign, only 16 — less than a third — provided funds to the super PAC Never Back Down, which can receive unlimited contributions, through the end of June. Eight other major donors gave directly to his presidential campaign but not the super PAC.

The top 50 list includes five donors who are now financially supporting rival presidential candidates. And of those who are giving money to the DeSantis campaign or his super PAC, five are splitting their funds with other candidates.

HE’S BACK — The governor did press ahead with scheduled fundraisers in Pennsylvania on Tuesday that were noted in yesterday’s Playbook, though at least one event got postponed several hours, according to one of the organizers. The swing through the Keystone State marks DeSantis official return to the campaign circuit after roughly 10 days spent on Hurricane Idalia preparation and recovery efforts.

DISNEY'S SUCCESSION DRAMA: CNBC is just out with a lengthy account about the succession mess between Bob Chapek and Bob Iger. It reveals one big reason the company initially chose not to take a stance on Florida's "Don't Say Gay" bill: China. "Chapek and [Geoff] Morrell believed it would be far easier to avoid conflict with the Chinese government if Disney embraced a policy of not taking stances on social and political issues," writes Alex Sherman.

WARNING — “Matt Gaetz warns Kevin McCarthy 'may not have the job long' if he tries to stop Biden impeachment,” by Washington Examiner’s Misty Severi: “I worked very hard in January to develop a toolkit for House Republicans to use in a productive and positive way. I don’t believe we’ve used those tools as effectively as we should have,” Gaetz told conservative radio host Todd Starnes. "We’ve got to seize the initiative. That means forcing votes on impeachment. And if stands Speaker McCarthy in our way, he may not have the job long. Let’s hope he works with us, not against us."

SENTENCED — Enrique Tarrio, Proud Boys leader on Jan. 6, sentenced to 22 years for seditious conspiracy, by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney: Enrique Tarrio, the national leader of the Proud Boys on Jan. 6, 2021, was sentenced Tuesday to 22 years in prison for masterminding a seditious conspiracy aimed at derailing the transfer of power from Trump to Biden.

‘TEAM SPORT’ — “Once the leading alternative to Trump, turnover in the DeSantis team spells trouble,” by NPR’s Ashley Lopez: “Whit Ayres — who was a pollster for DeSantis in his 2018 gubernatorial campaign — says the issues with his presidential campaign likely stem from the fact that most of his team hasn't worked with him before. ‘Ron DeSantis has run five different campaigns — three for Congress, two for governor — and he has had five completely different campaign teams for those five races,’ he said. ‘We worked on his 2018 gubernatorial campaign, a tough, hard fought race, and he'll have nothing to do with anyone associated with that victory.’”

SNUB RUB — Christie knocks DeSantis for not meeting Biden during visit to survey hurricane damage, by POLITICO’s Kelly Garrity: “Your job as governor is to be the tour guide for the president, is to make sure the president sees your people, sees the damage, sees the suffering, what’s going on and what needs to be done to rebuild it,” Christie said during an interview on Fox News’ “The Brian Kilmeade Show.” “You’re doing your job. And unfortunately, he put politics ahead of his job. That was his choice.”

JOIN US ON 9/12 FOR A TALK ON THE NEW AGE OF TRAVELING: In this new era of American travel, trending preferences like wellness tourism, alternative lodging and work-from-anywhere culture provide new but challenging opportunities for industry and policy leaders alike. Join POLITICO on Sept. 12 for an expert discussion examining how the resilience of the tourism and travel industries is driving post-pandemic recovery. REGISTER HERE.

Brandon Wolf, press secretary for the LGBTQ+ rights organization Equality Florida, is headed to the Human Rights Campaign, where he’ll be national press secretary.

Ballard Partners poached Michael LaRosa from Penta Group — becoming the first Biden administration official to join the mostly Republican firm that made its name in Washington thanks to its founder’s ties to Trump.

BIRTHDAY: Former Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.)

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