By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Questions loom over Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell as Congress prepares to return from its August recess. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

HAPPY LABOR DAY —  “Auto Strike Looms, Threatening to Shut Detroit’s Big 3,” by NYT’s Neal Boudette: “The United Auto Workers union and the three Detroit automakers have less than two weeks to negotiate a new labor contract, and a strike of some sort seems increasingly likely.”

WELCOME TO ‘A PRETTY BIG MESS’ — The Senate returns from August recess tomorrow with a possible government shutdown looming in just four weeks — and two longtime GOP leaders under threat.

We’re looking at one cluster of a month: Lawmakers have until the end of September to pass a continuing resolution that gives appropriators more time to hash out long-term spending agreements. But with Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s rabble-rousing conservatives demanding poison-pill policy riders in the temporary patch — and with whispers about “motion to vacate” once again percolating among some conservatives — clearing a CR is no sure thing.

Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL wasn’t wrong last week when he called the entire situation a “pretty big mess.” (More on this in a second.)

But first, everyone’s focus will turn to McConnell himself. Since he froze for half a minute during a press conference last week in Kentucky — his second such episode in recent weeks — Washington will be closely watching to see whether the 81-year-old leader will stick to his longstanding Washington routines — delivering morning floor soliloquies, taking questions from reporters and otherwise acting like his usual self.

McConnell was cleared for work last week by Congress’ attending physician, BRIAN MONAHAN, and over the weekend, McConnell received a blessing from the GOP’s College of Cardinals:the Wall Street Journal editorial board.

Still, Senate Republicans and reporters are expecting McConnell to address his health situation with more specifics than explanations of “lightheadedness” and “dehydration.” His office has yet to release any information from doctors who have directly treated him — Monahan said he had only spoken to the leader and “conferred with his neurology team.”

As some GOP senators discuss whether to force a special GOP conference meeting to discuss his future leading the party, McConnell has been lining up his allies. And let’s be clear: He has many of them. Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), unsurprisingly, tweeted her support, and others in McConnell’s own leadership team — including those pining to succeed him — have said he’s more than capable of leading. Yesterday, Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) went on CNN’s “State of the Union” and gave the GOP leader a full-throated endorsement.

“Mitch is sharp, and he is shrewd. He understands what needs to be done,” Rounds said. “I will leave it up to him as to how he wants to discuss that with the American public. But there’s no doubt in my mind that he is perfectly capable of continuing on at this stage of the game.”

In short: Don’t expect an immediate leadership shakeup in the Senate, but the conversation about McConnell’s future will nonetheless drive the headlines this week.

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THE LOOMING APPROPS WARS: The more pressing issue for the country, of course, is government funding. Last week, McCarthy urged his conservative members to simply back a stopgap and hold their policy demands for long-term government spending bills, a fight that will come later in the year.

So far, they’re ignoring him. Conservatives are threatening to oppose the CR until they can beef up border measures, secure an end to a controversial Pentagon abortion policy and block the Justice Department’s efforts to prosecute DONALD TRUMP.

Of course, as recent history has shown over and over again, the side that makes demands in a shutdown war rarely gets what they want and ends up suffering politically. But those lessons have been lost on the House’s right flank — with some members, such as Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.), arguing that shutdowns aren’t so damaging.

Making McCarthy’s job even more complicated: Senate Republicans appear to be receptive to a White House request for a $24 billion supplemental funding the war in Ukraine as well as $16 billion for disaster recovery efforts that will benefit communities wrecked by Hurricane Idalia and the Maui wildfires — sending the CR’s total price tag even higher.

It’s worth reflecting for a moment on how all of this could have been — and almost was — avoided. Biden and McCarthy agreed on spending caps in May as part of the big debt ceiling deal, and congressional negotiators built circuit-breakers into that bill to ensure a smooth approps process. But McCarthy has now walked away from that deal, thanks to conservatives’ demands.

The upshot is that House Republicans have backed themselves into a corner. They’re now on track to swallow a CR that continues spending plans passed under a Democratic-controlled Congress and undercuts their own leverage as Washington once again looks to the Senate — whose appropriators have already sent all 12 approps bills to the floor on a bipartisan basis — to be the adults in the room.

Related reads: “Top Job for Congress: Avoiding a Government Shutdown,” by WSJ’s Lindsay Wise and Siobhan Hughes … “Senate set to return to a drama-filled September,” by The Hill’s Aris Folley

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Happy Labor Day. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

THE SPIES WHO KNOCKED ON THE FRONT DOOR — “Chinese Gate-Crashers at U.S. Bases Spark Espionage Concerns,” by WSJ’s Gordon Lubold, Warren Strobel and Aruna Viswanatha: “Chinese nationals, sometimes posing as tourists, have accessed military bases and other sensitive sites in the U.S. as many as 100 times in recent years. … The incidents, which U.S. officials describe as a form of espionage, appear designed to test security practices at U.S. military installations and other federal sites. Officials familiar with the practice say the individuals are typically Chinese nationals pressed into service and required to report back to the Chinese government.”

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo prior to their talks at Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, on Monday, Sept. 4. | Sergei Guneyev/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. INSIDE 1600 PENN: Officials at the White House have been gradually preparing for a GOP impeachment inquiry into President JOE BIDEN. And as the chorus of conservative cries for impeachment grows, those at the White House increasingly feel that Biden will benefit more from the probe than Republicans will. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t quiet resignation and frustration inside the building, our colleagues Adam Cancryn, Jonathan Lemire and Holly Otterbein report.

“While West Wing advisers believe independent and swing voters will ultimately turn against GOP leaders for using impeachment as political payback against the president, they also are bracing for a time-consuming, draining probe — one that could create negative headlines and has the potential for unexpected outcomes. And that’s not the only political hot spot they are gearing up to confront.

“Biden aides are also preparing for another looming fight with Republicans over government funding. They believe that standoff will also turn to their favor — especially if it results in a government shutdown. But here, too, there is consternation. Biden aides expressed concern about the damage an extended shutdown could do to the economy and the public’s psyche, especially as Biden struggles to convince voters that the nation’s economic outlook is improving.”

2. THE AGE-OLD QUESTION: Biden’s age is once again raising concerns for voters amid his reelection push, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll. “The negative views of Biden’s age and performance in office help explain why only 39% of voters hold a favorable view of the president. In a separate question, some 42% said they approve of how he is handling his job, well below the 57% who disapprove,” WSJ’s Sabrina Siddiqui and Catherine Lucey write. “And Biden is tied with former President Donald Trump in a potential rematch of the 2020 election, with each holding 46% support in a head-to-head test.”

Interesting split: “Although the candidates are only three years apart, 73% of voters said they feel Biden is too old to seek a second term, compared with 47% of voters who said the same of the 77-year-old Trump. Two-thirds of Democrats said Biden was too old to run again.”

The other elephant in the room: “58% of voters say the economy has gotten worse over the past two years, whereas only 28% say it has gotten better, and nearly three in four say inflation is headed in the wrong direction. Those views were echoed in the survey by large majorities of independents.” See the full poll

Related read: “Nikki Haley re-ups call for competency tests for older pols,” by Katherine Long …. “Of course Biden's age is a legitimate voter concern,” by Nate Silver on Substack

3. TRAIL MIX: Biden and Trump are spurning the early blitz of campaigning, leaving the flurry of hand-to-hand politicking for the younger and less-established group of challengers, AP’s Jill Colvin and Will Weissert write. By the numbers: Biden has held “just one campaign rally in the four-plus months since he formally launched his 2024 reelection bid. Trump, who complained of his Biden’s ‘basement strategy’ in 2020, has not campaigned for three weeks now, last appearing at the Iowa State Fair on Aug. 12.”

As for Trump, at least, the schedule might pick up as the primary season nears its conclusion and the timeline for his various legal troubles becomes set: “Aides say his schedule will ramp up after the Labor Day weekend, with trips this coming week to Iowa and South Dakota — neither is a key primary or general election state — and California after that.”

Related reads: “Chris Christie is actually gaining support for president. From Democrats,” by Mia McCarthy and Lisa Kashinksy in Salem, N.H. … “Vivek Ramaswamy wasn’t in Model UN, but he’s got that ‘power del’ vibe,” by WaPo’s Jesús Rodríguez

4. THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE HOME: South Carolina’s Republican primary is set for Feb. 24 and will go a long way in crowning the eventual nominee. In fact, “in all but one primary since 1980, the Republican winner in South Carolina has gone on to be the party’s nominee,” AP’s Meg Kinnard and Michelle Price write. Which is why Sen. TIM SCOTT and NIKKI HALEY are feeling the “added pressure given the traditional expectation for a presidential candidate to win their home state. But they may also splinter any traditional home turf edge in South Carolina, which could allow [Florida Gov. RON] DeSANTIS to relegate them to a potentially embarrassing third or even fourth place.”

Related read: “Nikki Haley Has a Playbook for Winning Tough Races, but 2024 Is Different,” by NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa

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5. TUBERVILLE THE TROUBLEMAKER: Gen. ERIC SMITH is one of hundreds of senior military leaders who are frozen in place as Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE holds their nominations hostage over his objection to the Pentagon’s abortion policy. Set to become the next leader of the Marine Corps, Smith is widely respected by members of both parties — with even Tuberville himself saying there is “little doubt” of Smith’s fitness for the job.

“Yet for the foreseeable future, Smith — along with the incoming heads of the Army, Navy and, soon, the Air Force — will do his job with the limited authority of an acting administrator — marking the first time in more than a century that the Marines have been without a Senate-confirmed service chief,” WaPo’s Dan Lamothe writes, speaking to Smith about the situation in an interview. Because of Tuberville’s blockade, Smith said he now “must ‘ruthlessly adhere’ to admonitions from the Senate that he not presume his next assignment is assured.”

6. THE WAR IN UKRAINE: “‘Where Is the Money?’ Military Graft Becomes a Headache for Ukraine,” by NYT’s Andrew Kramer: “The removal of Ukraine’s minister of defense after a flurry of reports of graft and financial mismanagement in his department underscores a pivotal challenge for President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY’s wartime leadership: stamping out the corruption that had been widespread in Ukraine for years. … It comes at a pivotal moment in the war, as Ukraine prosecutes a counteroffensive in the country’s south and east that relies heavily on Western allies for military assistance.”

7. HAPPENING TOMORROW: “A Georgia trial arguing redistricting harmed Black voters could decide control of a U.S. House seat,” by AP’s Jeff Amy: “U.S. District Judge STEVE JONES is hearing what is expected to be a two-week case without a jury. If he rules against the state, he is likely to order Georgia’s Republican-controlled General Assembly to redraw districts to comply with the law. The trial yokes together three different cases, meaning Jones could rule for the challengers in some instances and not others.”

8. HAPPENING THIS WEEK: “Ukraine war, absence of Putin and Xi set to dent G20 summit,” by Reuters’ Aftab Ahmed, Krishn Kaushik and YP Rajesh: “China will be represented by Premier LI QIANG, not President XI JINPING, while Russia has confirmed President VLADIMIR PUTIN's absence, suggesting that neither nation is likely to join any consensus. That means the two-day summit from September 9 will be dominated by the West and its allies.”

Related reads: “Putin says there will be no new grain deal until the West meets his demands,” AP … “China’s economic woes may leave U.S. and others all but unscathed,” by WaPo’s David Lynch

9. THE LONG TAIL OF THE CARES ACT: “Inside a Sales Army Turning a Tax Break Into a Modern-Day Gold Rush,” by WSJ’s Ruth Simon and Richard Rubin: “The ERC is proving far more costly to U.S. taxpayers than expected. The IRS paid more than $150 billion in ERC refunds through early March, and the money is still flowing. Total payments through July could be $220 billion, with another $120 billion in the pipeline, according to a recent Piper Sandler estimate. That would be roughly triple early congressional estimates.”

Joe Biden was briefed on Burning Man.

Mike Lee isn’t a fan of all that.

Olaf Scholz suffered a Harry Reid-esque exercise accident.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) … Zach Leighton … CRC Advisors’ Laura Schlapp … POLITICO’s Kierra Frazier and Dave Brown …… Washington Examiner’s Susan Ferrechio and Jerry Dunleavy … Dana Gartzke … Kelu Chao … SBA’s Matt Sonneborn … Emily Armstrong of Rep. Jahana Hayes’ (D-Conn.) office … Will Taliaferro … DoorDash’s Chad Horrell … Michael McAuliff … Jared Allen of the National Automobile Dealers Association … Harold Ickes … former acting CIA Director Mike Morell … Victoria Cram … former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer … Hagar Hajjar Chemali … Victoria Coates ... Anu Rangappa ... Sam Dagher ... Graham Weinschenk … Kim Wehle

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