By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Every governor and secretary of state in America will soon be asked and need to have an answer for the following question: Do you believe the Fourteenth Amendment disqualifies Trump from appearing on your state’s ballot? | Andrew Harnik, File/AP Photo

DeSANTIS DWINDLING — “Trump Is Top Choice for Nearly 60% of GOP Voters, WSJ Poll Shows,” by WSJ’s Aaron Zitner and John McCormick: “The new survey finds that what was once a two-man race for the nomination has collapsed into a lopsided contest in which DONALD TRUMP, for now, has no formidable challenger. … Trump’s lead over his top rival, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, has nearly doubled since April to 46 percentage points. At 13% support, DeSantis is barely ahead of the rest of the field, none of whom has broken out of single-digit support.”

FRONTIERS OF CON LAW — The most important article you need to read today is Erica Orden on Trump and the Fourteenth Amendment.

Before we get into the legal nitty-gritty of whether the amendment’s sanction for those who have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion” applies to Trump, let’s tackle the immediate political impact.

Every governor and secretary of state in America will soon be asked and need to have an answer for the following question: Do you believe the Fourteenth Amendment disqualifies Trump from appearing on your state’s ballot?

For many state officials the answer will be an easy no, and there are respectable arguments they can lean on. Former federal judge MICHAEL McCONNELL, for instance, warns it would be “profoundly anti-democratic” to leave ballot qualification decisions in the hands of other partisan politicians.

But for many other officials who are 14A-curious there is a growing body of work, mostly from scholars with impeccable conservative credentials, that will be difficult to ignore:

— Federalist Society co-founder STEVEN CALABRESI writes at the Volokh Conspiracy: “Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment bans anyone from holding any federal office who has taken an oath to uphold the Constitution and who then breaks that oath by engaging in ‘insurrection or rebellion against the same.’ Donald J. Trump is precisely such a person.”

— Law professors WILLIAM BAUDE and MICHAEL STOKES PAULSEN counter McConnell in a new law review paper: “Section Three is self-executing, operating as an immediate disqualification from office, without the need for additional action by Congress. It can and should be enforced by every official, state or federal, who judges qualifications.”

— And former federal judge J. MICHAEL LUTTIG wrote the following with Harvard’s LAURENCE TRIBE: “The former president’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and the resulting attack on the U.S. Capitol, place him squarely within the ambit of the disqualification clause, and he is therefore ineligible to serve as president ever again.”

As Orden details, the law and politics of this issue are moving fast:

• There are lawsuits in Florida and New Hampshire asking judges to block Trump from the ballot. Influential Democratic attorney and activist MARC ELIAS has been pressing the issue, and an activist group sent letters to officials in nine states in July asking them to ban Trump from the ballot.
• Michigan Secretary of State JOCELYN BENSON was on MSNBC recently to discuss the issue and said she was “taking it seriously” and would confer with her colleagues in 2024 presidential swing states Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.
• New Hampshire’s attorney general and secretary of state released a joint statement Tuesday on the questions surrounding Trump’s constitutional standing, saying, “The Attorney General's Office is now carefully reviewing the legal issues involved.”

The chances of at least one secretary of state agreeing with the Calebresis, Baudes and Luttigs of the world and kicking Trump off the ballot seem nontrivial. Trump would obviously challenge such a ruling, and so the Supreme Court could end up settling this previously obscure issue of constitutional law.

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Did You Know: Americans count on oil and natural gas – made, moved and improved by nearly 11 million workers and suppliers in all 50 states, contributing trillions to communities and the U.S. economy. From Pennsylvania to California, America’s natural gas and oil workforce strengthens our nation. Our economic outlook is brighter when we lead on energy, and our dedicated workforce is a reminder that we need Washington policies to encourage investment and enable development.

NEW RULES — Friend of Playbook DOUG SOSNIK is out with a new political memo that he has shared exclusively with us this morning that captures his thinking about the unique circumstances of our current political moment. Sosnik breaks it all down into “Ten New Rules of American Politics.” We think you will want to read the entire memo, which is brimming over with smart insights, but here’s his list and some key excerpts:

1. All politics is now national … “There are currently only five U.S. Senators and 23 members of the U.S. House of Representatives from a different party than the presidential candidate who carried their state or district in 2020.”

2. Education is the new fault line in American politics … “Biden carried white college educated voters by 15 points, which is a 29-point swing from Romney’s 14-point margin. At the same time, Trump carried white non-college educated voters by 32 points.”

3. National polling is not an accurate predictor of presidential election outcomes … “Despite losing the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, Republicans held the White House for 12 years during this period.”

4. There are only a handful of states that determine control of power in the U.S. … “[T]here are at most eight states … that will determine the outcome [of the 2024 election]. The only polls that matter in the upcoming presidential election are in these swing states.”

5. The potency of abortion as a political issue will increase over time … “Republican efforts to further restrict a woman’s right to choose at the state level runs counter to the views of a majority of the country and will further increase the political potency of the issue.”

6. The South and the West are now the center of political power … “In the last decade, nine of the top 10 states with the highest increase in population growth were in the South and the West.”

7. The suburbs are the last remaining battleground … “Suburban voters determined the outcome of the last two presidential elections, as well as at least one branch of Congress in each of the last three election cycles.”

8. Online small-dollar donors are the real test of the strength of a candidate … “Over the course of a campaign, big donor contributions are no match for the money that is continuously raised from small donors.”

9. There is no longer a true Election Day in America … “In the 2020 campaign for president, 69% of the country voted before the election — 43% by mail and 26% in person. This was a sharp increase from 40% early voting in 2016.”

10. Political reform is gaining strength across the country … “In addition to taking politics out of drawing congressional and legislative districts, two of the most effective reforms that are increasing in popularity are rank[ed] choice voting and open/jungle primaries.”

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your rules of politics: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

All Over the Map on Energy: On one hand, the Biden administration urges more supply of American oil and natural gas to meet growing energy demands. On the other hand, they put more American acreage off limits for development and add barriers to developing energy. Let’s advance smart policy together.

TOP-ED — “Mitch McConnell Agonistes,” by the WSJ Editorial Board: “We agree that too many people cling to power for too long in Washington. But Senate leaders are chosen by their party colleagues, who are in the best position to judge [MITCH] McCONNELL’s continuing abilities. If they think Mr. McConnell can still be an effective leader of an increasingly fractious GOP Senate conference, then he should stay in the job.”

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN’S SATURDAY: The President and the First Lady will depart the White House en route to Live Oak, Fla., to survey damage caused by Hurricane Idalia and meet with residents impacted by the storm.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks during a campaign stop on Friday, Sept. 1, in Hampton, N.H. | Reba Saldanha/AP Photo

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. DEPENDS ON WHO’S ASKING: Several GOP primary candidates and allied groups have started leaking their own internal polling in a bid to move the public narrative surrounding the 2024 presidential race, Steve Shepard writes.

“Publicly released internal polling isn’t new in politics. Campaigns have been releasing or leaking their internal numbers — most often as a tool to gin up fundraising — for decades. But in the increasingly nationalized 2024 GOP primary, campaigns and allied groups are using the tactic more aggressively than in prior races. … In fact, the five most recent Iowa polls in FiveThirtyEight’s database were commissioned by Republican groups, including the super PAC backing Trump’s campaign and the pro-DeSantis nonprofit. But among those engaged in the release-internal-data practice, DeSantis’ team stands out as the most aggressive.”

2. NO TIME FOR THE TARMAC: “In Florida, Even a Hurricane Can’t Sweep Away Presidential Politics,” by NYT’s Michael Shear and Nicholas Nehamas: “On Friday, a spokesman for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida … said the governor doesn’t ‘have any plans’ to meet President Biden on Saturday when he visits a Florida community ravaged by Hurricane Idalia. … The governor’s statement came just hours after Mr. Biden confirmed to reporters that he would meet with the governor during his visit to the state. White House officials responded by saying the president had told Mr. DeSantis he planned to visit before announcing it publicly — and that the governor had not expressed any concerns at that time.”

3. THE WORLD ACCORDING TO VIVEK: “As Vivek Ramaswamy takes center stage, so do his views on racism,” by the Boston Globe’s Tal Kopan: “[VIVEK] RAMASWAMY's views were recently on display when he was asked in Iowa last week whether liberal critics would label him a white supremacist. He responded that ‘the greatest racism I have experienced . . . comes from the modern left.’ To make his point, he singled out Massachusetts Representative AYANNA PRESSLEY and author IBRAM X. KENDI, both Black activists for racial equality, calling them ‘modern grand wizards of the modern KKK,’ comparing them to a white supremacist group with a long history of killings and violence against Black people and other nonwhite groups. Ramaswamy cited out-of-context comments they made about advancing racial justice. He also claimed to have never encountered a white supremacist and questioned their existence.”

Also on the trail … “Nikki Haley's campaign launches effort to capture youth vote across 45 states,” by Fox News’ Adam Sabes and Jon Street

4. VIRGINIA IS FOR SPENDERS: “Biden has DNC plow $1.2M into Virginia amid Youngkin fundraising blitz,” by WaPo’s Laura Vozzella: “The money will bring the DNC’s contributions to the Democratic Party of Virginia this year to $1.5 million — 15 times more than it invested four years ago, the last time all 140 seats in the state Senate and House of Delegates were on the ballot. … The outcome on Election Day is likely to determine whether [Gov. GLENN] YOUNGKIN can enact a conservative agenda that includes corporate tax cuts and a 15-week ban on abortion (with some exceptions). The results also could feed or kill the presidential buzz that’s surrounded the former Carlyle Group executive since he flipped seemingly blue Virginia red nearly two years ago.”

5. POLL POSITION: A new MetroNews West Virginia poll shows West Virginia Gov. JIM JUSTICE with a strong lead over Rep. ALEX MOONEY (R-W.Va.) in the Senate Republican primary, and a smaller lead over incumbent Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) should they meet in the general election, reports MetroNews West Virginia’s Brad McElhinny.

Don’t forget: “Manchin has not yet said if he is running for Senate re-election. Manchin, first elected in 2012, has said he will reach a decision by late this year or early next year.”

6. HEADED FOR A COURTROOM NEAR YOU: “Highways are the next antiabortion target. One Texas town is resisting,” by WaPo’s Caroline Kitchener: “Designed by the architects of [Texas’] ‘heartbeat’ ban that took effect months before Roe fell, ordinances like the one proposed in Llano — where some 80 percent of voters in the county backed President Donald Trump in 2020 — make it illegal to transport anyone to get an abortion on roads within the city or county limits. The laws allow any private citizen to sue a person or organization they suspect of violating the ordinance.

“Antiabortion advocates behind the measure are targeting regions along interstates and in areas with airports, with the goal of blocking off the main arteries out of Texas and keeping pregnant women hemmed within the confines of their antiabortion state.”

7. ABORTION ON THE BALLOT: “An Ohio ballot measure seeks to protect abortion access. Opponents’ messaging is on parental rights,” by AP’s Julie Carr Smyth and Christine Fernando in Columbus: “[A]s the campaigning for and against the nation’s latest tug-of-war over abortion begins in earnest this weekend, voters are getting a different message from the measure’s opponents. They are characterizing it as threatening a wide range of parental rights. ‘As parents, it’s our worst nightmare,’ one particularly ominous online ad funded by Protect Women Ohio, the opposition campaign, says of November’s Issue 1. … To try to reverse their string of losses, anti-abortion groups are using the Ohio campaign to test arguments over parental rights and gender-related health care as potentially a winning counterpunch.”

8. DEEP IN THE HEART: “Texas AG Ken Paxton’s impeachment trial is in the hands of Republicans who have been by his side,” by AP’s Paul Weber and Jake Bleiberg: “...The impeachment trial of Texas Attorney General KEN PAXTON is going to test the will of Republicans senators to oust not only one of their own, but a firebrand who has helped drive the state’s hard turn to the right for years. … The build-up to the trial has widened divisions among Texas Republicans that reflect the wider fissures roiling the party nationally heading into the 2024 election.”

9. KNOWING SHAWN FAIN: “Meet the Man Who Has Detroit on Edge,” by WSJ’s Nora Eckert: “In the five months since he narrowly edged out the incumbent in a contentious runoff election, the 54-year-old UAW boss has tossed the typical union playbook, starting with turning his back on a traditional CEO-handshake ceremony that has for decades marked the start of labor talks in Detroit. … In recent weeks, he has been unusually outspoken about his frustrations with labor talks — at one point, making a public show of throwing Stellantis’s bargaining proposals in the trash — and has embraced fiery rhetoric that has riled up workers for a potential walkout and taken many auto executives aback. …

“His speeches are often peppered with quotes from WALTER REUTHER, the legendary 1940s union boss who was regarded as a reform-minded intellectual, and he counts civil-rights activist JOHN LEWIS and college-basketball coach JOHN WOODEN among his influences. But when asked who his role model is, he hesitated for a moment. ‘I am who I am,’ he replied. ‘I was raised to be my own person.’”

Bell - Counterpoint Media

CLICKER — "The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics," edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies

A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

Washington should support the nearly 11 million oil and gas workers and suppliers powering America.

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

— “Assignment: Sinatra,” by Gay Talese in Air Mail: “A legendary editor. A recalcitrant writer. And a subject that was both man and myth. The story behind the writing of what became known as the greatest magazine profile ever.”

—  “Assignment: Sinatra Part II,” by Gay Talese in Air Mail: “While he waits for an opening into the singer’s inner circle, Gay Talese acquaints himself with ‘the unhappy ones.’”

— “How Merve Emre became the hottest — and most reviled — name in literary criticism,” by Insider’s Anna Silman: “‘Everyone's jealous of her because she's extremely prolific, extremely productive, extremely beautiful. And she also is very polarizing. And I think that she is polarizing in great part because she is so prolific and so beautiful.’”

— “The Dungeons & Dragons Players of Death Row,” by Keri Blakinger in the NYT Magazine: “For a group of men in a Texas prison, the fantasy game became a lifeline — to their imaginations, and to one another.”

— “The Quest to Pick Up the Lost Lifting Stones of Ireland,” by Alyssa Ages for GQ: “A strongman is on a mission to uncover and lift these forgotten tests of strength.”

— “Our Lady of Pittsburgh,” by Anna Peele for The Cut: “Gisele Fetterman has steered her family through hell and back. What’s a few more fires?”

— “In Praise Of Heroic Masculinity,” by The Atlantic’s Caitlin Flanagan: “Teach boys that strength can be a virtue.”

— “A Brief Efflorescence,” by Karan Mahajan in the NY Review of Books: “The early Aughts were a period when New York became the center of the world both politically and musically, the city itself the subject of songs and romance.”

— “Genomic inference of a severe human bottleneck during the Early to Middle Pleistocene transition,” by Wangjie Hu, Ziqian Hao, et al. in Science: “We dominate Earth’s landscapes, and our activities are driving large numbers of other species to extinction. Had a researcher looked at the world sometime between 800,000 and 900,000 years ago, however, the picture would have been quite different.”

TRANSITIONS — Zach Bannon is now comms director for Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.). He most recently was deputy press secretary for Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.). … Sarah Cannon is now a senior congressional adviser at the International Development Finance Corporation. She previously was legislative director for Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho).

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. John Rutherford (R-Fla.) … Lisa Barclay … NPR’s Don Gonyea … Newsmax’s James Rosen … Jess Fassler … former Sens. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.) … former Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) … J.P. Freire … Zakiya Thomas … Dan Klaidman … Tom Manatos of Block … Gilead Sciences’ Bill Bode … Kris Balderston … Emily Porter of Sidecar Health … PBS’ Raney Aronson-Rath … Seth Gainer ... Evan Viau of House Energy and Commerce … Victoria Bonney of Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-Maine) office … Axiom Strategies’ Ethan Zorfas … TMZ’s Harvey Levin … Dylan Vorbach … AHIP’s Andrew Shine … Wyss Foundation’s Molly McUsic … Kevin P. Smith … Jennifer Haynes of Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-Calif.) office … Elizabeth Birch of CBRE … Rachael Payton

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

CBS “Face the Nation”: Nikki Haley … Gina Raimondo … Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) … Larry Hogan … Ashley Etienne … Terry Sullivan.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Mike Pence … Jared Bernstein. Panel: Marc Short, Horace Cooper, Marie Harf and Howard Kurtz.

NBC “Meet the Press”: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu … Gina Raimondo … Franklin Foer. Panel: Sara Fagen, Jeh Johnson, Andrea Mitchell and Jake Sherman.

ABC “This Week”: Vivek Ramaswamy … Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) Panel: Donna Brazile, Susan Page, Reihan Salam and Heidi Przybyla.

MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) … Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … Michael Gottlieb … Jen Jordan

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A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):

Economic Engine and Protector of Parks: Americans count on oil and natural gas developed, refined and delivered by nearly 11 million workers and suppliers in all 50 states and DC. American energy delivers local economic impact amounting to nearly 8% of our national total and close to Canada’s entire GDP. Meanwhile, thanks to funding from offshore natural gas and oil production, the Land and Water Conservation Fund is helping maintain parks across America. In 2022, the conservation fund allocated $398 million toward conservation projects across the U.S., including national parks, wildlife refuges, outdoor recreation opportunities and more. This critically important work couldn’t be done without America’s dedicated natural gas and oil workforce leading the way toward ever-stronger U.S. energy leadership. Washington policymakers must stand with them.

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