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What the debate told us about a post-Trump GOP

Presented by The American Petroleum Institute (API): The unofficial guide to official Washington.
Aug 24, 2023 View in browser
 

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Unlike in a general election, debates in a primary make it uniquely difficult to stand out because the candidates generally agree on so many issues. | Morry Gash/AP Photo

Listen to today's Daily Briefing

DRIVING THE DAY

HAPPENING TODAY — “Donald Trump expected to surrender in Fulton County today,” by AJC’s Jeremy Redmon and Greg Bluestein: “The former commander-in-chief announced his intentions in a social media post, saying he would arrive in Atlanta in the afternoon to ‘proudly’ be arrested on the 41-count indictment. … Trump will be booked and photographed, making him the first U.S. president featured in a mug shot.”

DEBATE BREAKDOWN … 

— VIVEK: Learn how to pronounce his name (it rhymes with “cake”), because he’s not going away. Unlike in a general election, debates in a primary make it uniquely difficult to stand out because the candidates generally agree on so many issues.

Once upon a time, the main way to get attention was to pick a few spots and exaggerate policy differences with rivals. Nowadays, especially in a Republican Party ruled by Trump, you also need to be entertaining. VIVEK RAMASWAMY has learned both lessons well.

He succeeded in turning himself into the main character of the debate, especially in the crucial early minutes when the ratings are the highest. He was at the center of key clashes over funding for Ukraine (no), sending military troops to the Mexican border (yes), and whether to pardon Trump (hell yes). Only one other candidate had more speaking time.

He showed a knack for populist one-liners. RON DeSANTIS and other rivals are “super PAC puppets.” He finds “it offensive that we have professional politicians who will make a pilgrimage to Kyiv, to their pope, [VOLODYMYR] ZELENSKYY, without doing the same for the people in Maui or the south side of Chicago.”

And, according to the NYT’s tracker, Ramaswamy was tied with DONALD TRUMP in terms of the number of attacks he received from his opponents, a clear sign of his rise. Two of the most memorable:

1. CHRIS CHRISTIE: “I’ve had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like ChatGPT standing up here.”

2. NIKKI HALEY: “He wants to hand Ukraine to Russia, he wants to let China eat Taiwan, he wants to go and stop funding Israel. … You have no foreign policy experience, and it shows.”

— PLAYING FOR THE OBITS: MIKE PENCE spoke for more than 12 minutes — more than anyone else last night. The key monologue that put him over the top is instructive: At the end of a portion of the debate devoted to Jan. 6 and Trump’s multiple indictments, when the Fox hosts were moving on to a new subject, Pence interrupted and demanded that he be allowed to speak. He then delivered an impassioned defense of his actions on Jan. 6.

Compare that to how DeSantis handled this part of the evening: by dodging questions on the matter and attacking the hosts as wasting time on an irrelevant issue. (This elicited a spanking from BRET BAIER: “We spent an hour talking about policy. Former President Trump is beating you by 30, 40 points in many polls. So it is a factor in the GOP primary.”)

Pence, who repeatedly rolled over the moderators and pilloried his opponents, emerged last night fully as the conviction candidate that he has gradually become over the last year, after he initially flirted with some more politically convenient strategies.

He embraced standing up to Trump on Jan. 6 as a heroic act to defend the Constitution. He refused to promise to pardon Trump. He forcefully defended the importance of arming Ukraine. And he staked out the most anti-abortion rights position at the debate (a national 15-week ban, which TIM SCOTT and ASA HUTCHINSON also support). These are not electoral winners. The first three positions are unpopular in the primary. The fourth is unpopular in a general election. But knowing Pence has chosen conviction over politics in these areas made his performance electric — which is not a word we would normally associate with the staid and starchy Hoosier.

(Again, the contrast with DeSantis is instructive: the governor refused to say whether he would adopt a federal abortion ban similar to the one he signed in Florida.)

— A BROADER DEBATE: Without Trump onstage, last night’s debate gave us a view of what a post-Trump Republican Party might look like: it is still influenced by him and the populist/isolationist energies he unleashed, but a much wider spectrum of opinion is able to flourish.

The Trump-less event allowed minority views in the Republican Party — especially those about Jan. 6 and Trump’s criminal culpability — to get a lot more airtime than one generally sees at GOP forums these days.

Hutchinson argued that the 14th Amendment may disqualify Trump from serving as president.

Haley noted that Trump was the “most disliked” politician in America and an electoral liability. She also reminded the Fox News audience of something it doesn’t hear much: “Donald Trump added $8 trillion to our debt, and our kids are never going to forgive us.”

Christie made a point of praising Pence’s actions on Jan. 6 and condemning Trump’s: “[Pence] deserves not grudging credit, he deserves our thanks as Americans for putting his oath of office and the Constitution of the United States before personal, political and unfair pressure. And the argument we need to have in this party before we can move onto the issues that Ron talked about is we have to dispense with the person who said we need to suspend the Constitution to put forward his political career.”

— THE FADING HEIR APPARENT. Ron DeSantis might not need to worry much about Pence and Christie, who have basement-level favorability ratings that won’t shift overnight. But DeSantis is being eclipsed by Ramaswamy as the bright and shiny candidate in the race.

Ramaswamy is proving more adept at trolling the libs, pressing populist contrarian views on issues such as Ukraine, and expressing his undying fealty to Trump. These were once the Florida governor’s bread and butter. But last night he was restrained. He wasn’t heard from for long stretches, and he allowed Ramaswamy, Pence, Christie and even Haley to steal all the attention.

At one point, Ramaswamy quipped, “We’re just gonna have some fun tonight,” and he looked like he meant it.

DeSantis did not appear to be having fun.

The DeSantis campaign is spinning his performance as an above-the-fray victory that benefited from Ramaswamy attracting the bulk of the attacks that might have otherwise been directed at the governor.

But given the trajectory of DeSantis’s campaign, being a non-factor at the first big-audience event of the primary season is not a great outcome.

— THE VEEP PLAY? When we ask key Republicans which candidate is most likely to surprise in this primary, the name that comes up most often is Tim Scott. But there wasn’t much evidence for a Scott surge last night. He stuck to his stump speech lines, avoided criticizing his opponents, and wasn’t eager to insert himself into spicy exchanges over abortion and Jan. 6.

Two things are true about attacking opponents: it works but it also turns off some voters. So perhaps Scott’s milquetoast performance was simply about playing the long game and protecting his very high favorability ratings, which are his most precious asset. And perhaps he’s playing the very long game and auditioning for a VP role.

— THE EARNEST GOVERNORS. Before the debate, Hutchinson and DOUG BURGUM stood apart from the field because of their non-Trumpy views. But onstage, what separated them was their complete disregard for how candidates are taught to communicate in 2023. They have decades of real-world experience, but little of the charisma and TV chops that these GOP debates — now more than ever — reward.

More coverage:

  • POLITICO: “Who won, who lost and who fizzled in the first Republican debate”
  • NYT: “Ramaswamy Seizes Spotlight as DeSantis Hangs Back: 7 Debate Takeaways”
  • WaPo: “Republican rivals clash sharply in combative debate with no Trump”
  • WSJ: “GOP Presidential Hopefuls Inflict Damage on Each Other, Sparing Trump”

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your favorite debate moments: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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MEANWHILE ON THE PLATFORM FORMERLY KNOWN AS TWITTER — We’ll know more about whether Trump’s decision to skip the debate and cede all the attention to his rivals was smart or not once we have some solid ratings info. If the Trump-less debate tanked Fox’s audience numbers, then mission accomplished for the former president. But even if Wednesday was a normal night of Fox News ratings, that means a lot of GOP primary voters were exposed to two hours that included a big dose of Trump bashing.

Trump’s interview with TUCKER CARLSON had some predictably bizarre moments, but also a lot of familiar ground was covered. We didn’t find it nearly as interesting as the eight Republicans knocking each other around in Milwaukee, as these headlines can attest:

  • POLITICO: “Trump tries to outshine Republican debate: The former president sought to draw viewers away from the Fox News event in a rambling interview with Tucker Carlson.”
  • AP: “Trump praises Jan. 6 crowd, repeats election lies in online interview while skipping GOP debate”
  • WaPo: “Trump suggests in Carlson interview that U.S. could see more political violence”
  • NYT: “Trump, During Tucker Carlson Interview, Belittles Republican Rivals”
  • WSJ: “Trump Focuses on Biden, Not GOP Rivals on Debate Stage”
 

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Did You Know? Here’s a dose of energy reality: Americans today drive nearly 272 million gasoline- and diesel-fueled vehicles, and these will account for more than 85% of the U.S. fleet in 2050. That’s where government rules to cut tailpipe emissions should be focused – not on limiting America’s vehicle choices.

 

BIDEN’S THURSDAY: The president has nothing on his public schedule.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ THURSDAY: The VP has nothing on her public schedule.

THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.

 

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Rudy Giuliani speaks outside the Fulton County jail, Wednesday, Aug. 23. | Brynn Anderson/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

TRUMP CARDS

FROM ‘AMERICA’S MAYOR’ TO FULTON COUNTY’S DEFENDANT — “‘I’m the same Rudy’: Former NYC mayor surrenders defiantly in Georgia,” by WaPo’s Amy Gardner, Holly Bailey, Josh Dawsey and Jacqueline Alemany: “RUDY GIULIANI, who rose to prominence decades ago as a crime-fighting federal prosecutor and the mayor of New York City, turned himself in to an Atlanta jail Wednesday on charges that he and former president Donald Trump oversaw a vast conspiracy to illegally keep Trump in power after the 2020 election.” He was booked on a $150,000 bond and faces 13 felony charges.

Said Giuliani: “People like to say I’m different. I’m the same Rudy Giuliani who took down the Mafia, who made New York City the safest city in America, reduced crime more than any mayor in the history of any city anywhere. I’m fighting for justice.”

PARANOIA STRIKES DEEP — “Some MAGA fans think a pro-Trump rally outside the Atlanta jail is an FBI setup,” by NBC News’ Ryan Reilly: “On both Truth Social and X, the Elon Musk-owned platform formerly known as Twitter, conservative users worried that undercover law enforcement officials and antifa activists were behind the rally, planning to use it as a ‘setup’ to arrest Trump supporters. ‘Watch out for the FBI and antifa/blm to stir up a riot,’ one social media user with the display name ‘Ultra Maga’ wrote. ‘Be careful, it could be a setup just like the J6,’ wrote another user. ‘Watch out for FBI plants,’ echoed another user. ‘They can play havoc with your peaceful plans.’”

MEET ANOTHER CO-DEFENDANT — A Trump supporter who was indicted in Georgia last week for harassing an election worker was also charged earlier this year for attacking an FBI agent investigating the effort to overturn the 2020 election results, report WaPo’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, Devlin Barrett and Patrick Marley. HARRISON WILLIAM PRESCOTT FLOYD III allegedly body-slammed an agent when two agents appeared at his apartment in February to serve a grand jury subpoena. Floyd “is a little-known player who helped run Trump’s 2020 campaign outreach to Black voters.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

PUTIN’S RUSSIA, PART I — “Plane crash believed to have killed Russian mercenary chief is seen as Kremlin’s revenge,” by AP: “Russian mercenary chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN and top officers of his private Wagner military company were presumed dead in a plane crash that was widely seen as an assassination, two months after they staged a mutiny that dented Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’S authority.”

PUTIN’S RUSSIA, PART II — “Russian Court Extends Pretrial Detention of Jailed WSJ Reporter,” by WSJ’s Ann Simmons: “EVAN GERSHKOVICH, detained on an espionage charge since March, will remain in a Russian jail until at least Nov. 30.”

THE ECONOMY

ARTICLES OF INTEREST — “‘Treacherous’ descent: Fed debates how far to push rate hikes,” by Victoria Guida: “Fed officials are wrestling with often conflicting information to decide whether to keep raising interest rates and how long they need to keep them at high levels to ensure that the worst price spikes in four decades are fully over. A wrong calculation could trip the economy into a slump. The question is beginning to divide the central bank’s rate-setting committee, which so far has been in lockstep on policy decisions. Some members have been voicing increasingly divergent views about whether the economy can slow without a big jump in unemployment — the so-called soft landing that has proved so elusive in the past.”

 

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Smart Regulation: Vehicle and fuel technologies can cut emissions while letting Americans choose their ride.

 

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE PLOT AGAINST WHITMER — “Prosecutor says 3 men accused in plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Whitmer wanted to start a civil war,” by AP’s John Flesher and Ed White: “Three men accused of aiding a plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer were anarchists who considered themselves ‘the new founding fathers’ and were preparing for bloodshed, a prosecutor told jurors Wednesday.”

2024 WATCH

VAX NOT — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s request to temporarily prevent Google from removing two videos of him was blocked by a federal judge yesterday, writes Andrew Zhang. Kennedy is suing the company, alleging censorship. “YouTube, which is owned by Google, had removed videos of Kennedy making what the company said were medical misinformation claims,” Zhang writes. “The firm contends that the content violated YouTube’s policy against discussing the Covid-19 vaccines.”

POLICY CORNER

THE PRICE IS (NOT) RIGHT — “White House to name first 10 drugs for Medicare negotiations early,” by David Lim and Adam Cancryn: “The announcement will mark a major step in a bid to lower drug prices through the first-ever direct negotiations between Medicare and pharmaceutical manufacturers over a set of medicines. … Biden health officials are expected to reveal the initial list before the stock market opens Tuesday morning, because the impact on publicly traded companies that make any drugs on the list could affect their stock prices during trading. The White House is then set to tout the program on Tuesday afternoon.”

IMMIGRATION FILES — “Biden immigration policy giving temporary legal status to thousands faces court challenge,” by NBC’s Daniella Silva: “The humanitarian parole program, announced in January, allows up to 30,000 people from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela to be admitted into the U.S. each month ‘for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit’ on a case-by-case basis … Almost 160,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans have arrived under the parole program through the end of June, according to the administration. A total of 21 Republican-leaning states have challenged the policy, calling it ‘unlawful’ in an amended complaint in February.”

MEDIAWATCH

THIS IS CNN — “Mark Thompson, Former New York Times C.E.O., Among Candidates to Lead CNN,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mullin and John Koblin: “It is unclear how far along the talks are with Mr. [MARK] THOMPSON and the other candidates. But the discussions suggest that DAVID ZASLAV, the chief executive of Warner Bros. Discovery, the network’s parent, is looking for someone outside of the group of executives that has been leading the company since he fired CHRIS LICHT as chairman in June.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Marjorie Taylor Greene was something of a dual-screen viewer of the debate despite being in the auditorium.

Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle unsuccessfully tried to get into the post-debate spin room, only to have their attempt thwarted by security.

Vivek Ramaswamy borrowed a line from Barack Obama.

Nikki Haley made the debate’s first reference to Donald Trump.

TRANSITIONS — Mark Ratner is now chief of staff for Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.). He most recently was the Republican director of coalitions for the Senate HELP Committee and is a Fred Upton alum. … Megan Grosspietsch is now deputy director of scheduling at EPA. She most recently was a director of scheduling for Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.). … Lydia Niles and Mia Saponara are now managers on the comms and public affairs team in Global Strategy Group’s D.C. office. Niles was previously a senior account manager at Curley Company and Saponara was previously a manager at Locust Street Group.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) … Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) … Mike Huckabee … David Gregory … CBS’ Major Garrett … Nick Denton … Todd Harris of Something Else Strategies … David Molina of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics … New Mexico GOP Chair Steve Pearce … Ricki Seidman … Betsy Wright Hawkings … Seyward Darby of The Atavist Magazine … Matt McDonald of Spectator USA … The New Yorker’s Adam Gopnik … Natalie Strom of Edelman … Justin Roth … Geo Saba of Rep. Ro Khanna’s (D-Calif.) office … Brooke Barker … Erik Brydges … Karoline Leavitt … WaPo’s Jacob Bogage … Emily Cherniack of New Politics … Michael Moynihan … Pam Coulter … Abbie McDonough … Meagan Shepherd of Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) office … Dabney Hegg … former Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) … Elizabeth Cutler … former Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas) … Errol Louis

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Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.



This post first appeared on Test Sandbox Updates, please read the originial post: here

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