By Lauren Egan, Eli Stokols and Lawrence Ukenye

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from producer Raymond Rapada

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When Republican presidential candidates take the stage Wednesday night in Milwaukee for the first primary Debate of the 2024 campaign cycle, they’ll be grappling for traction in a primary field dominated by former President DONALD TRUMP. While some, like CHRIS CHRISTIE and perhaps MIKE PENCE, may go after the dominant frontrunner (who is skipping the debate), others appealing to Trump’s base have shown far more willingness to attack their other rivals and, above all, JOE BIDEN.

The 80-year-old president faces no primary on the Democratic side. But his campaign is readying responses with surrogates on the ground in Wisconsin and network TV studios, as well as a major ad blitz that’s about to launch.

West Wing Playbook called up a few political strategists to get a feel for what impact — if any — the debate could have on Biden’s reelection campaign. The conversations have been edited for length and clarity.

Does this debate even matter for Biden?

DAVID ALEXROD, former BARACK OBAMA senior adviser: It matters only in two ways: if they give him additional fodder for painting the Republican Party out of the mainstream, and if one candidate who’s not Donald Trump has such a great night that somehow it shifts the dynamic of the race. 

LIS SMITH, senior adviser to PETE BUTTIGIEG’s 2020 campaign: The Biden team surely will be seeing which attacks against the president seem to land and should be ready to push back forcefully in real time. 

JOE TRIPPI, 2004 campaign manager for HOWARD DEAN: You don’t want to get in the way when your enemies are all shooting at one another. 

TIM MILLER, communications director for JEB BUSH’s 2016 campaign: There could be some upsides and long-term benefits if these guys try to out-crazy each other and out-do each other with their lavish praise of Donald Trump. Some of that stuff can come back to bite you. We saw that on the Democratic side in 2020, and Biden was about as good as any of the candidates at avoiding this.

Is there an opportunity here for the Biden campaign?

Axelrod: If they get into a contest on issues that paint the party as extreme, that’s useful. You could see a montage of right-wing dogma woven into an ad.

Smith: It will also be critical for them to use the GOP field’s words against them. We can expect some extreme comments tonight — the Biden campaign should make everyone on the stage (plus Trump) own them. 

Trippi: The more they go after ‘woke’ stuff and try to outmaneuver each other on abortion and things they think will attract MAGA support, the more they’re pushing away independents and moderate Republicans. And that's what you want to keep pointing out if you're the Biden campaign.

Is there anything the Biden team should be worried about, especially when it comes to attacks on his family and HUNTER BIDEN?

Axelrod: I honestly don’t think any new ground is going to be broken in the debate on that one. 

Miller: Conceivably there could be some wheels-off claims about Hunter that then forces the question whether the Biden team responds to it. But the problem is that Donald Trump is going to get arraigned tomorrow, so it’s all going to get overshadowed the next day. I think they can probably sit back and watch with a big bag of popcorn.

What about other lines of attack? 

NINA SMITH, adviser to STACEY ABRAMS and a Buttigieg 2020 campaign aide: Republicans are good at finding weaknesses and perceived weaknesses and driving it into the public's psyche. This thing with [Biden’s] age, they're going to keep pushing it. Democrats have got to be creative buffering against that.

Is it a letdown for Democrats that Trump won’t be on the debate stage?

Axelrod: Biden is anticipating a race with Trump and anything that risks him not being the nominee is not that exciting for them. 

Nina Smith: There's still work to be done to convince folks it's not just Trump, that he's launched an entire movement. And you see that when polls show a majority of Republican primary voters still believe Trump won the 2020 election. Everyone on stage will be competing for those MAGA voters. So this is a good opportunity for the Biden campaign to clarify that it’s Trump’s party regardless of whether he’s on stage.

Miller: Having Trump on the stage would make it more of a circus, and the more extreme and anti-democratic the Republican candidates are, the easier that makes things for Biden.

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President Biden has a pet German shepherd named MAJOR. Which other president had a German shepherd with the same name?

(Answer at bottom.)

COUNTERPROGRAMMING: If you visit Fox News’ website, you’ll notice a surprising ad with prime placement on the top right side of the page — an image of Dark Brandon, Biden’s red-eyed alter-ego. People Magazine’s KYLER AVLVORD reports that the ad, which tells readers, “Get real, Jack. I’m bringing Roe back,” will appear on the site all day Wednesday until midnight — so throughout the Republican debate. “We thought about cutting the check directly to Dominion [Voting Systems],” one person familiar with the ad buy told West Wing Playbook. “Just easier to cut out the middle man.”

The ad links to the campaign’s donation page and, we’re told, has actually raised some money. It’s also popping up around the debate site in Milwaukee, including a rolling electronic version on the back of a truck. In addition, the Biden campaign has purchased air time on Fox News, according to AdImpact. Semafor reports the national TV ad will go up just before the debate begins.

TAHOE ABDUCTION: No, not that kind of abduction. While vacationing in Lake Tahoe, Nev., Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN on Wednesday attended a pilates and spin class, according to print pooler MATT VISER of the Washington Post. As Viser and his colleagues waited patiently at Cuppa Tahoe, a nearby coffee shop, they also noticed a number of the president’s family members, including granddaughters MAISY and NAOMI BIDEN, and Naomi’s husband, PETER NEAL. “At one point, Hunter Biden’s young son, BEAU, ran along the sidewalk and into the fitness studio,” Viser reported. Glad you guys got another early lid — now back to Instagramming your hikes.

BIDEN ON PRIGOZHIN: It must have been an invigorating class, because the president talked to the pool on the way out of PeloDog, answering questions about Wagner Group chief YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN being in a private jet that was shot down in Russia. Biden told STEVE HOLLAND of Reuters that the apparent death of the man behind a failed uprising against Moscow’s government exactly two months ago is anything but surprising.

“You may recall, when I was asked about this by you, I said I’d be careful what I rode in,” Biden said. “I don’t know for a fact what happened but I’m not surprised.” When asked if he thought Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN was behind the plane crash, Biden said: “There’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin's not behind. But I don’t know enough to know the answer. I’ve been working out for the last hour and a half.”

Biden also told reporters he would try to watch “as much as I can” of Wednesday’s GOP primary debate. Asked about his expectations, he laughed and told the pool: “I have none.”

BORDER SHIFT: Although the administration claims its efforts to counter unlawful crossings into the U.S. are working, NBC News’ JULIA AINSLEY reports that the DHS is turning back fewer migrants per day than it did before ending Title 42. The U.S. sent back 3,000 migrants per day in April, while Title 42 was still in effect, compared to 1,000 currently. Ainsley writes that the decline is likely attributed to the time it takes for the government to determine whether people are eligible for asylum and the increased usage of an app that allows migrants to stay in the country as their cases are processed.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This piece by The Hill’s MYCHAEL SCHNELL and REBECCA BEITSCH. It refutes Speaker KEVIN MCCARTHY’s claim in a Fox Business interview that Republicans could launch an impeachment inquiry into Biden as soon as the House returns next month if the administration doesn’t turn over documents it has requested. But an aide on the House Oversight Committee told The Hill that staffers never ended up requesting all the documents it claimed to want from the White House. “Basic reporting blows holes in the Speaker’s lies,” oversight and investigations spokesperson IAN SAMS tweeted. “Why isn’t there more of it?”

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by The Atlantic’s SARAH CHAYES about how the president’s continued support for his son Hunter Biden could become problematic amid the special counsel’s investigation during the 2024 campaign. “There is absolutely no evidence that Joe Biden, as vice president, changed any aspect of U.S. foreign policy to benefit Burisma or any of its principals,” Chayes writes. “But Hunter Biden’s position on that board of directors served to undermine the very U.S. anti-corruption policy his father was promoting.”

SOUNDS LIKE A TOUGH JOB: JIM JONES has been appointed to lead the FDA’s food division, our MEREDITH LEE HILL reports for Pro subscribers. He is currently the president of the consulting firm, J. Jones Environmental, and previously served as an assistant administrator at the EPA.

He and other members of an expert panel convened by the agency assessed that the division was in “constant turmoil” as it struggled to address the nationwide baby formula shortage last year.

MORE PERSONNEL MOVES: DANIELLE DECKER is now director of intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Commerce. She most recently was deputy director of intergovernmental and external affairs at the Interior Department and is an alum of the Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ office.

— LALITHA ADURY is now chief of staff for the policy planning staff at the State Department. She most recently was special assistant to the national security adviser.

A CLOSE CALL: The Department of Energy revealed that Biden and Harris’ personal information was at risk of being exposed during counterintelligence reviews by a “department support contractor.” A special report obtained by E&E News’ KEVIN BOGARDUS claims the incident occurred after the National Nuclear Security Administration asked the DOE's intelligence office to conduct a review on whether to grant access to the agency’s secret programs.

“What this episode shows is the need for external oversight. People may not know the rules and do the wrong thing," said STEVEN AFTERGOOD, a government secrecy specialist with the Federation of American Scientists. "This report is a good thing. It shows the oversight process is alert and effective.”

THIS IS GONNA COST MORE THAN A BUCK: The Labor Department reached a settlement with Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores to address years of safety hazards found at both companies, our NICK NIEDZWIADEK reports for Pro subscribers. The department previously penalized the discount chains and has collected more than $13 million in fines since 2017. Inspectors have routinely targeted the companies for tripping hazards, boxes blocking exits and blocked emergency exits and electrical panels.

MARK YOUR CALENDAR: The Biden administration is expected to announce early next week the first 10 prescription drugs selected for Medicare price negotiations, our DAVID LIM and ADAM CANCRYN report. The announcement will be paired with a celebratory event Tuesday at the White House and will “mark a major step in a bid to lower drug prices through the first-ever direct negotiations between Medicare and pharmaceutical manufacturers over a set of medicines.”

Scouting report: What DeSantis, Ramaswamy and everyone else needs to do in the debate (POLITICO’s Steven Shepard, Natalie Allison, Sally Goldenberg and Adam Wren)

The Staggering Economic Impact of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour (TIME's Jeannie Kopstein and Mariah Espada)

Biden Incentives for Foreign Investment Are Benefiting Factories (NYT's Jim Tankersley)

FRANKLIN DELANO ROOSEVELT owned many dogs in his lifetime, with Scottish terrier FALA perhaps being the most famous. But FDR, just like Biden, also had a German shepherd named Major. Coincidentally, both dogs got in trouble at the White House for similar reasons, according to the Huffington Post.

Thanks to the FDR Presidential Library and Museum for this question!

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.

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