By Kimberly Leonard

Good morning and thanks for reading Playbook. 

Gov. Ron DeSantis is facing his GOP rivals on the debate stage tomorrow. But the bigger concern for him and Florida may be forming in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking four storms that have materialized rather suddenly, just days after Tropical Storm Hilary brought dangerous floods to Southern California and as Tropical Storm Harold is set to make landfall today in south Texas. It's a harrowing reminder of how Florida is routinely battered by deadly hurricanes, just a year after Hurricane Ian claimed more than 140 lives and caused billions of dollars of damage to the state.

DeSantis made a name for himself by being combative. But when faced with a devastating hurricane last year, he mobilized state and national resources and embraced bipartisan harmony with President Joe Biden. (And he even managed to avoid seeming too close to the president, unlike former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's infamous “hug.”)

From left, Florida's first lady Casey Desantis, Gov. Ron DeSantis, first lady Jill Biden and President Joe Biden arrive at Fort Myers Beach, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022, to survey the damage caused by Hurricane Ian. (Saul Young/Knoxville News Sentinel via AP, Pool) | AP

Though DeSantis hasn’t faced the same number of storms as “Hurricane Governor” Jeb Bush, he benefited from saturated news coverage. For weeks, he stood alongside his emergency team and coordinated relief efforts with state and federal officials.

For elected leaders, storm efforts can help demonstrate “humanity and compassion,” Bryan Koon, the Florida Division of Emergency Management director under GOP Gov. Rick Scott, said in an interview. “It allows the voters to see you in a leadership role, and see firsthand how you handle that kind of situation, how you control the levers of government, how you interface with the private sector, how you communicate with your citizens,” he said.

Now storms are brewing again, and in the spirit of appearing presidential in times of crisis, DeSantis publicly offered assistance to California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat he frequently trades barbs with. (More on that below.)

The Atlantic storms currently brewing aren't, at this time, projected to hit here. But should the state face another serious hurricane, there would be a major reckoning ahead for DeSantis beyond the wreckage on the ground. It comes in the form of the ongoing property insurance mess, which persists despite Florida lawmakers taking several swings at fixing it.

The problem has made living in Florida unaffordable for many, especially for seniors and others on fixed incomes. When not enough people are insured, or are inadequately insured, then disaster recovery takes longer and the public relies more on “state funds, federal funds, charitable donations, their own bootstraps, etc,” Koon said.

“It just makes everything harder,” he said, adding that a storm this year would be more problematic than past years when property insurance was more affordable.

Former President Donald Trump has attacked DeSantis over the issue and Democratic Florida state senators are planning to draw attention to the state’s struggling insurance market during a virtual town hall this afternoon. Their primary concern is that the GOP-led legislature did very little to immediately ensure premiums didn't rise.

The legislative efforts to bring more insurers into the market won’t kick in for a while, DeSantis has acknowledged, adding, “knock on wood we don’t have a big storm this summer.”

“Florida is well-prepared for any possible hurricane,” Press Secretary Jeremy Redfern said, and the emergency management division added it was working directly with counties to promote readiness campaigns, such as the upcoming tax holiday for disaster preparedness supplies.

Bottom line: “If done well, dealing with a disaster can enhance a candidate's viability,” Koon said. “And just the opposite as well — if they perform poorly it can doom their chances.”

— WHERE'S RON? Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis (but safe to assume he’s preparing for tomorrow’s high-stakes presidential debate).

Airing today: 11 a.m. Fox News Channel interview featuring DeSantis and first lady Casey DeSantis. It’s part of Anchor Harris Faulkner’s “Families in Focus,” featuring 2024 candidates and their families.

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POST DEBATE — Trump will surrender in Georgia on Thursday, he said on Truth Social. “Can you believe it? I’ll be going to Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday to be ARRESTED,” he wrote. His bond will be set at $200,000.

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Calif., on May 2, 2023. | Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

TRUCE — California Gov. Gavin Newsom and DeSantis routinely attack each other over policy disagreements — but they’ve made a show of putting their differences aside during natural disasters.

DeSantis announced over the weekend that Florida was ready to assist California with Hilary relief. Similarly, Newsom’s office dispatched a five-person team to provide aid during Ian last year.

It’s good PR for the governors, but the trading of expertise is actually pretty typical through an alliance known as “EMAC,” in which states provide each other with law enforcement, firefighters, search and rescue teams and others during natural disasters.

Brian Ferguson, California’s director of crisis communication in the governor’s Office of Emergency Services, said in an interview Monday evening that two Florida state employees with expertise in hurricanes were assisting him. “I’m looking at them right now … it’s a very normal and non-political arrangement,” especially for large states that face different natural disaster seasons, he said.

Alecia Collins, spokesperson for the Florida’s Emergency Management Division, added that executive director Kevin Guthrie was in “constant communication” with the emergency chief in California and that the Golden State said it didn’t need additional resources from Florida for now.

“Florida stands ready to deploy additional support to California if requested,” she said.

DEBATE SEND OFF — ‘Needs a breakout moment’: DeSantis heads to debate looking for a big win, by POLITICO’s Sally Goldenberg, Gary Fineout, and Mia McCarthy: Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday warned hundreds gathered at a beachside restaurant of the existential crisis facing America if he is not elected president in 2024. For the once-rising Republican superstar, however, his moment of truth may be coming just two nights from now.

HOME SWEET HOME — “DeSantis pitches outsider campaign, relies on Florida insider cash,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Emily Mahoney and Teghan Simonton: “Roughly half a million dollars in campaign cash flowed to DeSantis’ political operation from Tallahassee through June, buoyed by contributions from lobbyists, staffers in his office and businesses that receive millions in taxpayer-funded government contracts. Six leaders of state agencies, all directly appointed or recommended by the governor, also gave. This total includes money given to both DeSantis’ campaign and a supportive super PAC.”

COUNT HER OUT — State Rep. Fentrice Driskell, the leader of House Democrats, won’t mount a challenge against incumbent Sen. Rick Scott in 2024.

Driskell, who is from Tampa, has been contemplating a potential run for months even though Senate Democrats have been recruiting former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Miami Democrat who lost her reelection bid in 2020, to take on Scott.

Driskell announced on Monday, however, that “after giving it a lot of thought, I have realized that my work in the Florida House is not done yet.” Driskell, whose decision to bypass the race was first reported by NBC News, said in a statement that Scott has “spearheaded disastrous policies.”

Driskell’s decision to bypass the Senate race sends another signal that Democrats are coalescing around Mucarsel-Powell who is considering entering the race.

— Gary Fineout

MIAMI VISIT — Chris Christie is not going to apologize, OK? by POLITICO’s Michael Kruse: The about-to-turn-61-year-old former governor of New Jersey was Trump before Trump — charismatic, combative, politically incorrect — and he was, for that matter, Ron DeSantis before Ron DeSantis — winning reelection in a landslide not just in an erstwhile swing state but in an outright blue state.

BANNED — “GOP candidates push to ban Trump backers from Fox News debate spin room,” by The Messenger’s Tom LoBianco, Marc Caputo and Stephanie Murray: “Trump has a stable of nationally recognized Republicans surrogates ready to storm the spin room: Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Florida Congressmen Matt Gaetz and Byron Donalds.”

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here.

$2.5 MILLION — “Free Disney World passes is latest front in war between Disney and DeSantis appointees,” by the AP’s Michael Schneider: “Board members of the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District submitted a complaint to the state Inspector General, claiming that the millions of dollars in season passes, as well as discounts on hotels, merchandise, food and beverages, that their Disney-supporting predecessors provided governing district employees amount to unethical benefits and perks.”

— “Florida’s largest HOA is unraveling the mess caused by its ex board. It’s costing millions,” by Miami Herald’s Linda Robertson

DeSantis tapped Howard “Rusty” Williams as Holmes County Supervisor of Elections.

— “Kimberly Richey: From the Trump administration to a senior chancellor under DeSantis,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Ana Goñi-Lessan

BIRTHDAYS: State Rep. Kristen Arrington … State Sen. Dennis Baxley … Former U.S ambassador and Florida native Mark Gilbert … Former state Sen. Bill Montford … Kurt Browning, Pasco County schools superintendent and former Secretary of State … Mark Hinson, Florida journalist and writer

ENGAGED — Julia Canady, federal affairs coordinator for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Wells King, senior policy adviser for Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), got engaged Saturday in her hometown of Lakeland, Fla. They met in an American Enterprise Institute reading group for Matthew Continetti’s “The Right.” Pic … Another pic

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