Chipmakers and Big Tech companies have helped keep the stock market in the money in 2023. Their continued outperformance could hinge on their ability to prepare for any retaliation from China over President Joe Biden’s outbound investment order. Biden’s widely telegraphed order, which was announced earlier this month, is intended to curtail U.S. investors from financing quantum computing and artificial intelligence businesses in China. The White House has characterized those businesses as a possible national security threat and China’s ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng warned in July that his government would “not flinch from provocations.†Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s trip to Beijing this week is expected to include ample discussions over the fallout. Raimondo developing “a better understanding where China will respond to the outbound investment EO is one of the most significant outcomes that can actually come out of this and be useful for the U.S. private sector to hear,†Josh Lipsky, the senior director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, told MM. Most traders have likely already priced in how Biden’s order will affect highly touted chipmakers, Lipsky said, but the potential effects of any subsequent tit-for-tat remains unknown. That’s particularly relevant for Nvidia, whose chips have become a coin of the realm for A.I. startups that have attracted billions of dollars in investment from venture capital firms and strategic investors. Its chips are now prized enough to serve as collateral to multibillion dollar loans. With a $1.2 trillion market cap, Nvidia is now the fourth-largest component of the S&P 500. Markets climbed on Monday when the company’s shares spiked in anticipation of a positive second-quarter earnings release scheduled for Wednesday. Some analysts are warning that investors’ enthusiasm for Nvidia may be creating unreasonably high expectations for its future performance, Reuters’ Chavi Mehta reported. “I don't see this as the [Biden] order itself creating economic headwinds, but certainly retaliation from the order could,†Lipsky said. IT’S TUESDAY — All this talk of chips is making me anxious about a dip (groan). Send tips, gossip and suggestions to Sam at [email protected].
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