By Eli Okun

All of a sudden, a flurry of national and state surveys have seemingly catapulted Perry Johnson onto next week’s Debate stage. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo

SIREN — DONALD TRUMP has been telling associates in the past day that he will forgo the GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday and instead provide counterprogramming in the form of a TUCKER CARLSON interview online, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan just reported.

That would, of course, upend the debate and snub both the RNC and Fox News. And, remember, Trump will have yet another chance to steal the national spotlight next week when he turns himself in for booking on racketeering charges in Atlanta.

NOT SO FAST — Time is running short for the longer-shot GOP presidential candidates to make it onto the debate stage, but for a moment this morning it looked like Miami Mayor FRANCIS SUAREZ might have claimed the ninth podium. (Or eighth, without Trump.)

Suarez claimed to AP’s Steve Peoples that he’d officially met the fundraising and polling criteria to qualify for the debate. That would be a relief for the mayor, who has publicly stated that anybody who doesn’t make the debate should drop out.

But it wasn’t clear which polls Suarez was using to claim that he’d crossed the threshold. Our colleagues Zach Montellaro and Steve Shepard have an essential running tracker of who’s met which criteria — and, by their lights, Suarez has hit at least 1% in only two polls that the RNC is counting. He needs four. (WILL HURD is in the same boat, while ASA HUTCHINSON has notched the four polls but fallen short on donors.)

Sure enough, within a few hours, RNC sources told Peoples and other reporters that Suarez has not yet qualified. By his own metrics, that gives Suarez five days left to amass the necessary polling support — or become the first candidate to drop out.

Instead, somebody else swooped in: businessman PERRY JOHNSON, who started this week without a single qualifying poll in POLITICO’s tracking. All of a sudden, a flurry of national and state surveys from the Trafalgar Group and Victory Insights found him at 1% in one, two, three and four polls over just the last day — seemingly catapulting him onto next week’s debate stage. The wealthy self-funder had already crossed the fundraising threshold.

It’s the latest in a whirlwind scramble of last-minute efforts for the also-rans in the race. And with Suarez, Hurd and Hutchinson still on the outside looking in — along with LARRY ELDER and RYAN BINKLEY — Trump’s attendance isn’t the only question mark lingering over the debate. Read the full rundown from Zach, Steve and Kelly Garrity

THE MOST ANTICIPATED POLL OF THE MONTH — Suarez and Hurd have a golden opportunity to notch one more poll Monday: The cycle’s first Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa GOP presidential primary poll from the esteemed Selzer & Co. will drop at 6 a.m. Eastern time.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Morning Consult’s Eli Yokley has some new polling on the expectations game ahead of the debate, which reveals that a majority of potential primary voters think Trump would be the best debater on stage — if he shows up. With Trump gone, VIVEK RAMASWAMY slightly edges out Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, 32% to 31%, for whom voters expect to perform best. Expectations for other candidates are much lower. Roughly two-fifths of GOP voters say they plan to watch the debate.

What do they want to hear? Overwhelmingly, Republican voters say they’d like candidates to focus on the issues — like the economy, taxes and spending — more than themselves or each other. There’s a fair amount of agreement on matters like abortion, transgender rights, Social Security and pardons for Trump, but the primary electorate is divided over Ukraine, the poll finds. And Trump supporters are more interested in hearing about immigration, election fraud, wokeism and Trump himself on the debate stage than are non-Trump supporters.

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

WHAT TO WATCH AT TODAY’S SUMMIT — One big question looming over the U.S.-South Korea-Japan confab at Camp David today, which was unresolved as late as last night, is whether their documents will explicitly mention China as a threat, Phelim Kine reports. The extent to which the trilateral elevates China to the same level of regional concern as North Korea is up in the air, with South Korea in particular a bit warier about getting on China’s bad side.

SPY GAMES — Several U.S. agencies today warned the country’s private space sector that China and Russia increasingly have them in their intelligence sights, NYT’s Julian Barnes reports. “Space companies’ data and intellectual property could be at risk from attempts to break into computer networks, moles placed inside companies and foreign infiltration of the supply chain,” as space more and more becomes a crucial national security arena.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

EXTRA CHEESE — “Kenneth Chesebro, alleged architect of fake electors’ plot, followed Alex Jones around Capitol grounds on January 6th,” by Andrew Kaczynski, Em Steck and Yahya Abou-Ghazala: “When asked by the House select committee where he was the first week of January 2021 and on January 6, [KENNETH] CHESEBRO invoked his Fifth Amendment rights. But a CNN investigation has placed him outside of the Capitol at the same time as his alleged plot to keep Trump in office unraveled inside it. There is no indication Chesebro entered the Capitol Building or was violent.”

TRUMP CARDS

NEXT STEPS IN GEORGIA — Trump’s lawyers and the Fulton County, Ga., DA’s office are likely to meet early next week to hammer out the details of his bond package, ABC’s Olivia Rubin and John Santucci report. It’ll take place before the former president surrenders at the jail.

NEXT STEPS IN MANHATTAN — A judge today rejected Trump’s attempt to delay the next defamation lawsuit from E. JEAN CARROLL, the N.Y. Post’s Priscilla DeGregory reports. The judge deemed Trump’s appeal “frivolous” and tossed out his request for a stay pending that appeal.

REALITY CHECK — Anyone waiting for speedy trial dates in Trump’s many criminal indictments may be disappointed: Experts tell NYT’s Benjamin Weiser, Ben Protess, Jonah Bromwich and William Rashbaum that various forms of delays could lead to just one or two of the four trials happening before the 2024 election. “Ultimately, the judges overseeing the four cases might have to coordinate so that Mr. Trump’s lawyers can adequately prepare his defense without needlessly delaying the trials.”

“In my opinion, this trial, despite what dates anybody’s asking for anything else, it is not going to happen before the election,” chimed in Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP this morning about the case in his state.

Trump could also succeed in getting the Atlanta case moved from state to federal court, following in the footsteps of what MARK MEADOWS is attempting to do, experts tell WSJ’s Jan Wolfe and Byron Tau. The matter could turn on the question of whether he was acting within his federal duties in the actions at hand. And “defendant-friendly rules that courts have developed” could bolster Trump’s case to move the trial, particularly in the 11th Circuit. Moving the trial would likely benefit Trump in two ways: further delays and a more sympathetic jury pool.

THE SCOTUS ANGLE — Will the Supreme Court get involved in any of Trump’s high-profile legal proceedings? It’s unlikely that the ultimate outcomes will make their way to the high court, USA Today’s John Fritze writes. But other questions along the way could indeed go to SCOTUS to decide, including “whether two of the cases should be moved to federal court, whether Trump and other former federal officials are entitled to immunity and even whether efforts to limit Trump’s public remarks about his legal woes on the 2024 campaign trial are consistent with the First Amendment.”

INTRIGUE — “Trump PAC foots bill for private investigator in Manhattan criminal case, E. Jean Carroll trial,” by CBS’ Graham Kates: “As Donald Trump’s New York legal troubles began to mount this spring, his lawyers and political action committee sought the help of SEAN CROWLEY, a local private eye. Save America, a PAC founded by the former president, paid $152,285.50 to Crowley’s firm in April and May … It is unclear what that work entailed.”

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2024 WATCH

FED UP — MIKE PENCE was the latest GOP presidential contender to dump on Fed Chair JEROME POWELL in what’s becoming an increasingly common attack line in the primary. “Jerome Powell’s time is over,” said Pence, who’s called on the central bank to stop focusing on employment and simply fight inflation. “If I’m president of the United States, we’re going to get a new chairman at the Federal Reserve.”

MORE POLITICS

STORY OF THE DAY — WaPo’s Dan Balz and Clara Ence Morse take a big swing at exploring why American democracy is struggling, as the divide between the Constitution’s old counter-majoritarian checks and the country’s new, deep polarization leads to frequent minority rule. It’s the first in a new “Imperfect Union” series looking at Americans feeling unrepresented by their government. Though there are bright spots in the recent history of U.S. democracy, other factors also threaten its health, particularly the broad collapse of trust in an array of institutions. “[O]n balance, the situation now is dire,” the Post writes. “Americans are more dissatisfied with their government than are citizens in almost every other democracy.”

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — In a swing suburban district, Rep. MIKE LAWLER’s (R-N.Y.) ability to get reelected may hinge on how well he can convince moderates that he’s one of them, WSJ’s Simon Levien reports from Clarkstown. Lawler is focused on presenting himself as a fairly independent voice in Congress; the Journal finds a number of voters struggling with how to balance Lawler, whom they like, against a Republican Party they like less. And the Trump factor looms large, too.

HEY BIG SPENDER — The Washington Examiner’s Gabe Kaminsky digs into the campaign finance filings from Sen. JACKY ROSEN’s (D-Nev.) reelect to shine a spotlight on the fancy restaurants and hotels where the campaign has been spending. From Le Bernardin in NYC to Nobu in Dallas, the campaign has shelled out thousands of dollars on expenditures that Republicans say belies her working-class focus. But there’s no indication of anything illegal.

CONGRESS

ONE TO WATCH — “GOP push to get more Americans into high-deductible health is dividing Democrats,” by Ben Leonard: “Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle want Americans to embrace more risk when it comes to their health care. They’re proposing to do it by making high-deductible health insurance plans a little less risky. … A push led by House Republicans to allow insurers offering the plans to cover more expenses than they do now is gaining momentum in Congress and dividing Democrats.”

MAUI FALLOUT — In the wake of the deadly Hawaii wildfire, some advocates for Congress for the creation of a national disaster investigator “see an opening for potential movement on their idea,” Jennifer Scholtes and Alex Daugherty report. Members like Reps. KATIE PORTER (D-Calif.) and NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) want to have the National Disaster Safety Board, a federal team that can probe disaster responses and preparation across the country — an idea that passed the House but ground to a halt in the Senate. Now it could get resurrected in conjunction with Biden’s request for $12 billion in additional FEMA disaster funding.

To make matters worse, FEMA’s disaster fund is on the verge of being depleted this month, CNN’s Ella Nilsen and Priscilla Alvarez report. The worst of hurricane season has barely gotten underway, but the start of the year has already set a record for the highest total of massive natural disasters. FEMA says it needs the $12 billion supplemental. “And now there’s growing concern inside the agency the funding could lapse if Congress doesn’t pass a spending bill.”

THE TALENTED MR. MIELE — Semafor’s Kadia Goba has the latest crazy twist in the saga of SAMUEL MIELE, the former aide to Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) who was indicted for allegedly impersonating DAN MEYER, chief of staff to Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY, in a fundraising appeal. It turns out that when Miele first reached out to Santos to set up a meeting, he used the alias REYEM NAD — which, yes, is Dan Meyer spelled backward. Miele declined to comment.

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THE ECONOMY

KNOWING SHAWN FAIN — “The tough-talking union boss leading autoworkers to the brink of a strike,” by WaPo’s Jeanne Whalen and Lauren Kaori Gurley: “Fain’s stance — ambitious, belligerent and very publicly ticked off — is setting a tense tone for contract negotiations hurtling toward a deadline, with big implications for the economy, the green-energy transition and the future of middle-class manufacturing wages.”

POLICY CORNER

STICKING TO THEIR GUNS — “Hundreds of Gun Dealers Lose Licenses Under Biden Administration Crackdown,” by WSJ’s Zusha Elinson: It’s “a significant escalation of federal enforcement actions that has angered many in the gun industry. It has also provoked disagreement among law-enforcement veterans.”

PLAYBOOKERS

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Joe Billingsley is now senior policy adviser at the Office of the National Cyber Director. He most recently was director of strategic engagement for the College of Information and Cyberspace at the National Defense University and founder of the Military Cyber Professionals Association.

TRANSITIONS — Brendan Kelly is now director for China economics at the NSC. He most recently was deputy head of international relations and country risk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. … Michael Rauber is now comms director for Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.). He most recently was deputy comms director for Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio).

ENGAGED — Gary Grumbach, a reporter at NBC, and Margaret Hynds, a Penn law student and CBS News alum, got engaged yesterday at Constitution Gardens on the National Mall. They joined family afterward for dinner at Rose’s Luxury. The couple were introduced to each other in 2021 through a mutual friend. Pic, via Al Drago … Another pic

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