By Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil

In November, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley said Ukraine’s strong Military position and upcoming winter season combined to make a good time to consider peace talks. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

With help from Phelim Kine, Connor O’Brien, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman

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The conversation about Ukraine’s counteroffensive has shifted from one of excitement to disappointment, as Kyiv’s slow gains lead some U.S. officials and insiders alike to whisper: Should we have listened to Gen. MARK MILLEY?

In November, the Joint Chiefs chair said Ukraine’s strong military position and upcoming winter season combined to make a good time to consider peace talks. Plus, operations to expel Russian forces out of the whole of Ukraine –— which VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY demands — had a slim chance of success. Administration officials immediately scrambled to assure their counterparts in Kyiv that Milley was riffing and not reflecting a secret sentiment in the White House.

But listen to Milley lately, and you can hear the implicit “I told you so.”

“If the end state is Ukraine is a free, independent, sovereign country with its territory intact, that will take a considerable level of effort yet to come,” he told The Washington Post this week. “That’s gonna take a long, long time, but you can also achieve those objectives — maybe, possibly — through some sort of diplomatic means.”

One U.S. official, who didn’t want to run afoul of the administration by offering real views on the record, said the realities of the counteroffensive are sinking in around Washington. Ukraine’s tactics to preserve troops and equipment, Russia’s dug-in positions and the fight on multiple fronts have led to slow advances, shifting a possible breakthrough further into the future.

While the U.S. still backs Ukraine’s fight, the official said, “We may have missed a window to push for earlier talks.” The official also stressed, however, that few believe Moscow has been at all serious about negotiations since the war’s start. And no senior leader felt then, or feels now, that the counteroffensive was a mistaken play, considering how Ukraine maintains full support from the West and has had remarkable success throughout the war. Still, the official declared: “Milley had a point.”

Another U.S. official said the administration is increasingly asking itself this question: “If we acknowledge we’re not going to do this forever, then what are we going to do?”

Notably, no one is treating Milley like a prophet (and we have no indication the general is acting like he called it right from the start). Many people we talked to hastened to add that Kyiv and Moscow actually discussed peace before, that Ukraine recaptured lost northern territory late last year and that allies at this year’s NATO summit committed to the long-term defense of Ukraine. And consider the politics: The administration would’ve been shouted down for dragging Kyiv to the table before the counteroffensive got underway.

But the administration’s once-private outlook is more pessimistic than it let on. As the Post revealed Thursday, the U.S. intelligence community assesses that the operation will fail to achieve a key goal: reaching the southeastern city of Melitopol.

Retaking the city, a Russian logistics hub, has been a crucial piece of Ukraine’s overarching strategy to cut off the land bridge Moscow uses to move its forces and equipment to Crimea and other occupied territories along the Sea of Azov.

One top general acknowledged the challenges Ukraine is facing in its current operations in a roundtable with reporters Friday. ”Nothing ever goes as well as you had hoped it would go if you could do everything perfectly,” said Gen. JAMES HECKER, commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe and Africa. The fields they are pushing through are so heavily mined that Ukrainian forces are finding five or six mines per square meter, Hecker said.

“It's definite progress, but it's slow progress. And of course, all of us would like fast progress. But in a situation like this that's heavily defended and fortified, it's very difficult,” he said. “So slow progress is good, better than the alternatives.”

The administration, however, doesn’t appear like it plans to shift course.

“President [JOE] BIDEN has been clear that any decisions about a negotiated settlement to the war are going to be up to Ukraine and President Zelenskyy. We have been clear about the principle of ‘nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.’ And we are going to continue to focus on doing everything we can to help Ukraine defend its country against Russia’s brutal invasion,” said NSC spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON.

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U.S. MAYBE LOOKING TO LEAVE NIGER: Hecker also said today that the U.S. is making plans to move assets and troops out of Niger to other allied countries in the region if it's forced to leave Niger.

The U.S., which has 1,100 troops and a $110 million drone base in the country, has been allowed to remain in Niger in the aftermath of the coup. But the political crisis in Niger shows no signs of unwinding, as West African leaders continue to raise the possibility of military intervention to restore ousted Nigerien President MOHAMED BAZOUM and the junta shows no signs of backing down.

It also comes as France and the U.S. increasingly find themselves at odds over how to respond to the coup, as our own NAHAL TOOSI and CLEA CAULCUTT report.

F-16 TRAINING IN THE U.S.? The Biden administration has offered to train Ukrainian pilots in the United States if the European partners leading the training effort reach capacity, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER told Lara on Friday.

Ryder declined to say where the training would take place, but it’s likely it would happen at the 162nd Air Wing, stationed at Morris Air Force Base near Tucson. The 162nd is a unit of the Arizona Air National Guard that acts as the primary international F-16 schoolhouse. CBS News first reported the offer.

That comes as the U.S. gave the Netherlands and Denmark the green light to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, the Associated Press’ MIKE CORDER, SAMYA KULLAB and JAN OLSEN report, citing American and European officials. On Thursday, two U.S. officials told Lara that the Biden administration had formally approved the transfer of F-16 training materials to Denmark, allowing Ukrainian pilots to begin training on the long-anticipated fighter jets.

‘STRONGER’ THAN EVER: With today’s summit alongside the leaders of South Korea and Japan, Biden aims to prove his pro-alliances play can deliver greater peace in East Asia — and deter aggression from China and North Korea.

“These alliances are stronger than they have been at any point in modern memory,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters ahead of the meeting.

Ahead of the summit with Biden, South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL and Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO, diplomats from each country were locked in last-minute negotiations over whether the documents for the trilateral should explicitly mention China as a challenge to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, our own PHELIM KINE reported overnight.

Beijing’s the elephant in the room, as Chinese state media has blasted the summit as a “mini NATO” — a characterization Sullivan denounced as “explicitly not” true.

China’s predictably unhappy with the newfound closeness of the three countries, and others in the region might feel the same way.

MOON CHUNG-IN, a former adviser to the last South Korean president, said conservatives and liberals are divided over the issue, with the right loving the deterrence message and the left fearful that it will undermine the prospects for peace with North Korea.

In a joint statement released by the White House, the three governments agreed to "hold trilateral meetings between our leaders, foreign ministers, defense ministers, and national security advisers at least annually" and organize "annual, named, multi-domain trilateral exercises on a regular basis. They also urge the "the complete denuclearization of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea" and plan to "operationalize our sharing of missile warning data" on North Korea missiles by the end of the year. In effect, the group aims to strengthen defense, political and economic ties in the years to come.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring VIVEK RAMASWAMY, a Republican candidate for president. When he’s not on the campaign trail, you can find the entrepreneur at a Mexican restaurant sipping on a margarita.

We’re told by his team that Ramaswamy “is obsessed with cheap Mexican food” — as are we — and he’s always on the hunt for street tacos. Which is why Ramaswamy is constantly around, and constantly enjoying, a margarita when he can. But if he had to choose a specific place, the candidate is most partial to the frozen margarita at Bertha Miranda's in Reno, Nev., because it pairs perfectly with enchiladas.

Cheers, Da Vek!

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VIVEK’S HOT ISRAEL TAKE: While Ramaswamy has proven to be an unconventional presidential candidate so far, his latest take on continuing aid to Israel strays very far from the party line.

“Come 2028, that additional aid won’t be necessary in order to still have the kind of stability that we’d actually have in the Middle East by having Israel more integrated in with its partners,” he said during an interview with RUSSELL BRAND, per the Jewish Chronicle’s JOSH KAPLAN.

In other words, while Israel is one of the United States’ closest allies, he said it shouldn’t get special treatment: “There’s no North Star commitment to any one country, other than the United States of America.”

Maintaining Washington’s support for Jerusalem is popular among both Republicans and Democrats, so we may see Ramaswamy get hit for the remarks in the future.

NO WAR WITHOUT BIDEN: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE is arguing that the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 led to Russia invading Ukraine the following year.

“The truth of the matter is that the war that's raging in Eastern Europe, I think, never would have happened if we'd have been reelected for four more years,” Pence said today during an event with The Erick Erickson Show. “That withdrawal from Afghanistan I think emboldened Russia to make their move.”

While Pence has sought to distance himself from DONALD TRUMP throughout the 2024 presidential race, that view aligns with Trump’s belief that because of their administration’s foreign policy, Putin didn’t attempt to invade Ukraine while Trump was in office.

SECURING SPACE: Washington anticipates “growing threats" to the American space industry in the coming years as the space economy balloons, a U.S. counterintelligence official told Voice of America’s JEFF SELDIN.

The warning follows a federal report underscoring the likelihood that adversaries will “target and exploit the U.S. space industry [and] can harm U.S. commercial firms and broader U.S. national and economic security.” Countries that could target the U.S. include China, Russia and “other nations,” the official said.

The report specifically mentions cyberattacks, which the U.S. has been focused on preventing when it comes to defending satellites and other assets in orbit. That was on full display last week at DEFCON, when the Pentagon allowed hackers to break into a live, orbiting satellite to help them build more secure space systems.

WHEELS UP: Acting Chief of Staff of the Army Gen. RANDY GEORGE has moved out on his first trip as the acting chief to assess his top focus: warfighting, spokesperson Maj. JEFFREY LEE told NatSec Daily.

After observing integration of emerging technologies such as electronic warfare and cyber at Camp Grayling, Mich., he'll be meeting with future commanders at Fort Leavenworth and then on to observing live fire exercises in Texas and California.

CYPRUS EMBARGO REMAINS LIFTED: Cyprus will continue receiving American defense materials in the 2024 fiscal year, the State Department announced Friday.

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN determined that Cyprus met the “necessary conditions” for such sales, which he must decide on an annual basis due to the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act of 2019 and the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. Last year, the administration lifted a decades-old arms embargo on Cyprus.

Cyprus is planning a military buildup, with the island country’s president pledging to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. Nicosia remains in Washington’s good graces following some financial reforms and its stiff arm to Russia since the war it launched.

‘PUSH HIM TO DO MORE’: The House Armed Services Committee’s top Democrat, ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) called out Rep. ANDY HARRIS (R-Md.) and DON BACON (R-Neb.) after the two supporters of past Ukraine packages floated stipulations on their support for more money.

Smith told our colleague CONNOR O'BRIEN that both arguments would effectively kneecap Ukraine at a critical moment and should "get appropriately shot down."

Bacon told us Thursday that he wants to see more aid go toward Ukraine, but only if a final deal guarantees Kyiv will finally get long-range missiles that Biden has refused to send. Harris, a co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, this week cast doubt on the prospects of a Ukrainian victory and signaled a preference for pushing Kyiv to sign a peace deal over sending more money.

Bacon's approach, Smith argued, would "cut Ukraine off and leave them at the mercy of Russia because he's got quibbles with exactly which weapon systems the president has sent."

"If you don't think Biden's doing enough, then support the supplemental and push him to do more," Smith said. "If you think it's time to negotiate a peace, support the supplemental and put Ukraine in the best possible position to get the best negotiation."

AOC WANTS CIA ALLENDE DOCS: Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) is reupping her push for the CIA to release documents about former Chilean dictator AUGUSTO PINOCHET’s 1973 coup and the United States’ involvement in ousting leftist president SALVADOR ALLENDE, according to the Associated Press’ MAURICIO CUEVAS and DANIEL POLITI.

The comments from AOC, who first began the push to declassify the CIA documents during the NDAA amendments process, were made at a museum in Santiago, Chile’s capital, that honors victims of the Pinochet regime’s dirty war against dissidents. AOC is in South America leading a delegation of progressive lawmakers to Colombia, Brazil and Chile this month for what the group billed as a “different” kind of CODEL, as Alex and Eric reported in last Friday’s NatSec Daily.

SOLOMON SNUB: Beijing chalked up a stealth diplomatic win this week in its ongoing battle with the U.S. for influence with Pacific Island countries.

Solomon Islands Prime Minister MANASSEH SOGAVARE declined a meeting with Rep. NEAL DUNN (R-Fla.) and Del. AUMUA AMATA COLEMAN RADEWAGEN of American Samoa who were visiting the country as part of a House Select Committee on China delegation.

Sogavare “was unable to make time in his schedule” to meet the visiting lawmakers, said a committee statement. Sogavare is an explicitly pro-Beijing politician who struck a controversial security pact with China in 2021 that the U.S. and its allies fear may give Beijing a new beachhead for military operations across the Pacific.

The Chinese government “is coiling around Solomon Islands in hopes of tightening their grip on the Indo-Pacific region,” committee chair MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) said in the statement.

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‘NOT SO CREDIBLE’: Republican threats of military force against Mexican drug cartels are just political posturing, Mexico’s former economy minister, ILDEFONSO GUAJARDO VILLARREAL, told our own PHELIM KINE on Thursday during a visit to Washington.

That rhetoric is “not so credible,” said Guajardo. “But the [Mexican] government makes it look credible” by reacting to it, Guajardo said.

TRUMP has discussed sending “special forces” and using “cyber warfare” to target cartel leaders if he’s reelected president and, per Rolling Stone, asked for “battle plans” to strike Mexico. Reps. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas) and MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) introduced a bill seeking authorization for the use of military force to “put us at war with the cartels.”

Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR has slammed such proposals as “an offense to the people of Mexico.”

That response is nothing more than Obrador “wrapping himself in the Mexican flag, a nationalistic position,” Guajardo said.

— BRENDAN KELLY is now director for China economics at the NSC. He most recently was deputy head of international relations and country risk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

— JOE BILLINGSLEY is now senior policy adviser for cyber workforce, training and education for the Office of the National Cyber Director at the White House. He most recently was director of strategic engagement for the College of Information and Cyberspace at the National Defense University and founder of the Military Cyber Professionals Association.

— RYAN RASINS is now a legislative assistant for Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) handling the Senate Values Action Team. He was previously the military legislative assistant for Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.).

— BENJAMIN PARKER, The Bulwark: Lessons for American Democracy from a Russian Prison Cell

— CATHERINE OSBORN, Foreign Policy: South America Is Upping Its Bet on BRICS

— SADANAND DHUME, The Wall Street Journal: Did the U.S. Really Oust Pakistan’s IMRAN KHAN?

— U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: Hearing on China’s economy

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Digital empires: the global battle to regulate technology

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who no one ever thinks is right about anything.

We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who everyone believes is a prophet.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

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