By Madison Fernandez

Virginia Democrats ran as defenders of abortion rights in 2021 — and lost. But Democrats in the “next Abortion battleground” think this year will be a different story.

After last week’s victory for Abortion Rights activists in Ohio, Virginia Democrats are doubling down ahead of this year’s marquee legislative elections, according to a donor memo from the Majority Project, a recently launched campaign that encourages early voting, first obtained by Score.

Abortion rights was a main component of former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s campaign in 2021. He, however, still lost to now-GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and Republicans flipped the state House as well. But Democrats are betting that the fall of Roe will make the issue more tangible. 

Abortion rights demonstrators march to the house of US Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito in Alexandria, Va., on May 9, 2022. | Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

With a split legislature, Youngkin has faced roadblocks in passing some of his top priorities — including a proposed 15-week abortion ban. Democrats in the state Senate stymied that effort earlier this year, and continue to warn of a repeat attempt from Republicans. (Democrats hold a slim majority in the state Senate, and the GOP has narrow control of the state House.)

“Virginia Republicans are trying to take total control of the state government and total control of the decision between a woman and her doctor,” reads the memo from Majority Project executive director Sam Signori. “They’ve adopted the same extreme MAGA agenda that has been rejected in other states and will be up for the test in Virginia in just a few months.”

The group says it plans to knock on over 1 million doors by Election Day and air statewide ads to reach voters. Last month, the Republican State Leadership Committee released a memo indicating that the GOP will hammer Democrats on education, the economy and crime.

Democrats across the country have pointed to Ohio — where voters definitively voted down Issue 1, a proposal that would have made it more difficult to pass constitutional amendments, including one that could enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution that’s being voted on this November — as evidence of the staying power of abortion rights in competitive elections, more than a year post-Dobbs. Abortion rights activists are riding the momentum in Arizona, where they’re hoping to put a similar abortion rights initiative on the ballot in 2024. Even President Joe Biden’s team is touting the Ohio win as a success of his leadership.

Scott Kozar, a veteran Democratic strategist who is working on a handful of Virginia legislative races, said that it’s critical for Democrats to affirmatively make the case on their support for abortion rights in contrast to their Republican opponents’ views. Kozar is speaking from recent experience: He was the media consultant for the campaign against Issue 1 and also worked on Democratic state Sen. Aaron Rouse’s successful campaign in a Virginia special election earlier this year, which put abortion messaging at the forefront.

Similar to Ohio — which saw opposition to Issue 1 in traditionally Republican counties home to educated, suburban voters — Kozar argues that Virginia Democrats can seize on those demographics that have been traditionally out of reach.

“The rise of Democrats in Virginia has been powered by women, women in the suburbs, women of color, and college-educated women coming into the fold of the Democratic coalition,” Kozar said. “This issue just supercharges all of that. The places that are the battlegrounds tend to be places that have large concentrations of highly educated people and people of color, and women's freedom is extremely popular with these constituencies.”

Happy Monday. Send tips and Iowa State Fair chronicles to [email protected] and @madfernandez616.

Days until the RI-01 and UT-02 special election primaries: 22

Days until the Louisiana primary: 61

Days until the 2023 election: 85

Days until the Republican National Convention: 336

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 371

Days until the 2024 election: 449

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ISSUE 1 AFTERMATH — Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a candidate for Senate next year, is “convinced Issue 1 will only help him, even if it failed in the end,” The Columbus Dispatch’s Haley BeMiller writes. LaRose, who some are concerned will have his campaign tarnished by the failure of Issue 1, put “much of the blame on outside spending and media coverage. He also accused the business community of getting squeamish when abortion began to dominate the conversation.”

2024 WATCH — Pennsylvania Republican Mark Houck, an anti-abortion activist, is running for PA-01 against Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. “His entry into the race sets up a potentially messy primary — one with a focus on abortion rights — between a conservative activist and one of the most bipartisan members of Congress in a swing seat that the GOP must win in November to try to hold onto a majority in Congress,” our Brittany Gibson writes. The NRCC “plans to spend on the incumbent’s behalf, including in a primary race, if necessary.”

… Democrat Ylenia Aguilar suspended her campaign for AZ-03, citing “unexpected health developments.” A crowded field of Democrats vying for the seat, which is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego as he runs for Senate, remains. Read more from the Arizona Republic’s Allie Feinberg.

REDISTRICTING REDUX — Former Rep. Al Lawson (D-Fla.) said he would “consider running for his old seat if the district was reinstated to a configuration similar to how it was prior to the midterms,” our Gary Fineout writes. There’s a possibility it could: On Friday, Florida and groups challenging the state’s congressional map struck an agreement that narrows the lawsuit to focus just on Lawson’s old seat. “Now, the trial will no longer include issues such as whether some districts were redrawn to benefit Republicans, a violation of Florida’s anti-gerrymandering standards adopted by voters,” Gary writes. “Instead the big remaining legal question in the litigation is whether Florida’s redistricting standards enacted by voters violate the U.S. Constitution’s equal protection clause.”

LEGAL LOOK — Amid federal prosecutors examining Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and his wife, “few in New Jersey politics are willing to write him off, even as his reelection approaches in 2024,” POLITICO’s Matt Friedman writes. “The latest investigation into Menendez feels different to many insiders. It’s one year ahead of Menendez’s reelection race, and New Jersey Democrats don’t want to risk what should be a safe seat. There’s a backlog of ambitious North Jersey Democrats who wouldn’t take much convincing to run. … But Menendez, who’s known to hold political grudges, has said he’s running for reelection in 2024. And absent an indictment, Democrats don’t appear likely to ask him to stand down.”

TAKING THE STAGE — Republican Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry will take part in “at least one” debate ahead of this fall’s gubernatorial election, the Louisiana Illuminator’s Julie O’Donoghue reports. Landry, who’s perceived as the frontrunner in the governor’s race, skipped out on forums with other candidates earlier this year. But it’s “not clear whether Landry intends to participate in a debate before the Oct. 14 primary, against six other contenders on the ballot, or just ahead of the Nov. 18 general election.”

… Over in Kentucky, Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Republican challenger Attorney General Daniel Cameron released their debate schedules. They’re first expected to face off at a gubernatorial forum on Sept. 20 hosted by the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce.

… And meanwhile in Mississippi, “it’s unclear if any media outlet or organization has formally offered a forum for the two candidates for governor to debate before the November 7 general election,” writes Mississippi Today’s Taylor Vance.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The Indiana Republican Party last week endorsed Rep. Jim Banks for Senate, “believed to be the first time the party has backed a candidate for an open Senate primary,” the Indianapolis Star’s Kayla Dwyer writes.

PENCEMENTUM? — Former Vice President Mike Pence “is still registering in single digits in the polls, punished by rank-and-file Republicans for his refusal to overturn the results of the 2020 election,” our Adam Wren writes from the Iowa State Fair. But “Pence is leaning into his actions on Jan. 6 and promises to be relevant long past Iowa.”

VIVEKMENTUM? — There are some “methodological curiosities” when it comes to Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s standing in the polls, our Steve Shepard writes. “Ramaswamy’s strength comes almost entirely from polls conducted over the internet, according to a POLITICO analysis. … There’s no singular, obvious explanation for the disparity, but there are some leading theories for it, namely the demographic characteristics and internet literacy of Ramaswamy’s supporters, along with the complications of an overly white audience trying to pronounce the name of a son of immigrants from India over the phone.”

PRESIDENTIAL — Never Back Down, the super PAC boosting Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid, is going after former President Donald Trump for beefing with Republican Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds for not endorsing in the presidential primary. The spot is running in Iowa as the Iowa State Fair kicks off and the governor hosts “fair-side chats” with the GOP presidential candidates. Trump did not take part. (Reynolds did imply that she could give a late endorsement.)

… Never Back Down is running a similar spot to the Reynolds one in New Hampshire, showing Trump swinging at Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

… Tell It Like It Is PAC, the group boosting former Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, calls him a “real conservative,” in comparison to Trump’s “drama,” “distractions” and “lies” in an ad running in the New Hampshire market.

MS GOV — Democratic Mississippi gubernatorial candidate Brandon Presley is out with a spot emphasizing his faith and his “pro-life” stance.

LA GOV — Protect Louisiana's Children, a PAC supporting Landry, is touting the attorney general as a foil to Biden through his work against the president’s policies on an oil and gas lease moratorium, the border and social media censorship.

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OPENING UP — Supporters of an initiative to open Idaho’s primaries will start collecting signatures after the state Supreme Court ordered the state’s attorney general to revise the ballot initiative title language, the coalition said on Friday. Should voters approve the measure, which supporters are trying to get on the November 2024 ballot, it would create a top four primary in which the top four vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election, when voters then use ranked choice voting to select their preferred candidates. Signatures are due by May 1. Read more from the Idaho Capital Sun’s Clark Corbin.

— Brian Hughes will be Florida director for Trump’s campaign, Gary writes. Hughes, a longtime Florida political operative, recently worked for former Republican Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry.

CODA: TWEET OF THE DAY — “2024 will be the year of the Doug.” — Republican presidential candidate and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum on a story about the rise of Dougs in politics, by POLITICO’s Sam Stein

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