By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

Presented by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Ron DeSantis' team believes his campaign is gaining momentum in Iowa — despite Donald Trump's efforts to squash his push. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

NEW THIS MORNING — “Georgia prosecutors have messages showing Trump’s team is behind voting system breach,” by CNN’s Zachary Cohen and Sara Murray

BIG-PICTURE READ — On the surface level, it’s obvious: “How Trump Benefits From an Indictment Effect.” But under that headline, NYT’s Jonathan Swan, Ruth Igielnik, Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman deliver a compelling narrative this morning of how it happened.

Speaking of … “Fulton grand jury to hear Trump case early next week,” by AJC’s Tamar Hallerman and Greg Bluestein

How it’s playing … “Georgia Is Ground Zero for Trump Exhaustion as Another Indictment Looms,” by WSJ’s Cameron McWhirter and Lindsay Wise: “Trump fatigue is pervasive in Georgia, Republican campaign strategists warn, especially among suburban independents and some disenchanted Republicans.”

DeSANTIS’ IOWA NIGHTMARE OR ‘FIELD OF DREAMS’? — As Gov. RON DeSANTIS struggled through the past few weeks of staff turmoil, his campaign clung to a flash of hope to get them through the negative news cycles: His budding momentum in Iowa, where he’s running a much stronger second place to DONALD TRUMP than he is nationally.

But in dueling visits at the Iowa State Fair yesterday, everyone was reminded just how much of an uphill battle it will be for DeSantis to best the former president in the Hawkeye state. Trump sucked up the oxygen, attracting crowd sizes that dwarfed even the masses who swarmed DeSantis.

At times, the optics were brutal. As DeSantis spoke at Iowa Gov KIM REYONLDS’ “fair-side” chat, a plane circled over the fairgrounds with a banner that read, “Be likable, Ron.” As he stood at a grill flipping pork chops, Trump supporters started chanting “We love Trump! We love Trump!”

A plane flies over the Iowa State Fair pulling a banner that reads, "Be Likable, Ron!" on Saturday, Aug. 12. | Jeff Roberson/AP Photo

And throughout the fair, former DeSantis allies-turned-Trump-endorsers knocked their onetime friend in hopes of keeping him from peeling off support. As Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) went to introduce Trump at the fair, he told the crowd that the burgers would be grilled rare, medium rare and well done, but that “the most done you can be is Ron DeSantis.”

“It was a stark reminder both of Trump’s dominance in the 2024 primary and of how far behind DeSantis remains despite all of his hustle in Iowa in recent weeks,” our colleagues Natalie Allison and Adam Wren write from Iowa. And indeed, that narrative reigned most of the headlines on Saturday.

Donald Trump waves to supporters at the Iowa Pork Producers tent at the Iowa State Fair on Saturday, Aug. 12. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo

DeSantis’ campaign dismissed these stories as “lazy takes” by a Trump-obsessed media. And to be fair, it’s important to remember that it’s still early — and there are indeed bright spots for DeSantis in Iowa. In fact, his campaign tells Playbook that despite the fact that Trump currently polls 20 points ahead of him in Iowa — and despite the scene at the fair this weekend — they believe he’s actually in a better position to win the Hawkeye state than Trump.

Maybe they’re in denial, maybe they’re not. But here’s a download on their thinking:

1. Hope in history: In the summer of 2007, an ABC-Washington Post poll of Iowa voters showed MITT ROMNEY at 26%, RUDY GIULIANI at 14% and FRED THOMPSON at 13%. MIKE HUCKABEE was in the single digits — yet he would go on to win the state. Ditto with TED CRUZ in a Des Moines Register poll in summer of 2015, before he beat Trump in the state: At the time, it was SCOTT WALKER at 17%, BEN CARSON and RAND PAUL at 10%, and JEB BUSH and Huckabee at 9% each.

Stats like these are why DeSantis’ team has downplayed summer polling and argued that he has ample time to win. They argue that more than 75 percent of Iowa caucus-goers haven’t yet chosen their candidate, and the landscape is bound to change.

What’s more, DeSantis campaign officials who also helped Cruz win Iowa say that they’re actually in better shape than the Texas Republican was at a comparable moment ahead of the 2016 caucuses. (DeSantis has 40 endorsements from Iowa state legislators; Cruz had 12.)

“Where we stand today is far and away further down the road than we were in 2016,” SAM COOPER, DeSantis’ national political director, told Playbook, adding that Cruz (and even Huckabee) didn’t reach double digits in polling until late fall. “The governor’s … in second place. Senator Cruz was barely in the single digits at this point.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis drives a bumper car with his daughter Madison at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Saturday, Aug. 12. | Jeff Roberson/AP Photo

2. Building the ground-game operation: Just as DeSantis has been quoting “Field of Dreams” on the stump, his team has adopted the 1989 KEVIN COSTNER film’s mantra: If you build it, they will come.

While Trump has visited the state only a few times, DeSantis’ campaign has spent the summer creating what they’re calling an “Iowa caucus machine” — a hyper-local operation aimed at putting DeSantis in front of as many caucus-goers as possible.

They’ve embarked on the so-called “Full Grassley” — a plan to visit all 99 Iowa counties, as the state’s senior senator routinely does. (So far, DeSantis has visited almost 40.) On Friday, his super PAC announced that they’ve locked down coordinators in every single county.

They’re also prioritizing local endorsements. On Friday, DeSantis snagged the backing of STEVE DEACE, a prominent conservative talk radio host and Iowa kingmaker of sorts.

Traditionally, these kinds of local connections matter in Iowa, one of the final places that tries to eschew nationalized campaigns for parochial politics and handshakes. It’s why DeSantis’ campaign boasts that while Trump allies flew in from Florida and other parts of the country to stump for him at the state fair, DeSantis was flanked by 11 Iowa legislators who back him.

“[W]hat we're doing is laying the foundation by doing the fundamentals well so when [Iowans] start paying attention — we have the organization built to capitalize and turn those folks into caucus-goers for governor,” Cooper said.

So far, the effort has promise: DeSantis’s super PAC Never Back Down says 10,000 Iowans have signed caucus cards committing to back DeSantis in January. (For perspective: Cruz won Iowa with just over 51,000 caucus-goers in 2016, while Trump had 45,000.)

And of course there’s potential for more: The NYT’s polling showed that Iowa voters viewed DeSantis as both more likable and more moral than Trump, assets likely to prove valuable in a state where retail politics and evangelical conservatives are of paramount importance.

3. Trump’s Iowa blunders. At the same time, DeSantis’ inner circle has accused Trump of snubbing Iowa. They’ve regularly reminded locals that he picked a fight with Reynolds, who is very popular. (Trump’s allies have even acknowledged to Playbook that this was a misstep, suggesting that this was his biggest blunder since inviting white supremacist NICK FUENTES to Mar a Lago last fall.)

Trump has also turned a cold shoulder to other Iowa political traditions, refusing to attend Republican Sen. JONI ERNST’s annual “Roast and Ride” and the evangelical Iowa Family Leadership Summit.

“You’ve got to show up in people’s communities and you’ve got to be able to make the case about why you should be the nominee of the party and the 47th president of the United States,” DeSantis told voters at a Pizza Ranch last weekend per the New York Times, an apparent swipe at Trump.

His campaign was more blunt: “Trump may think he is entitled to the nomination, but DeSantis is committed to spending the time needed with Iowa voters to earn their support,” the campaign wrote in a blast to reporters.

Related reads: “The Iowa State Fair Saw Many G.O.P. Candidates but Only One Trump,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Lisa Lerer … “Trump swoops into Iowa fair, defying customs and clashing with DeSantis,” by WaPo’s Hannah Knowles, Marianne LeVine and Dylan Wells … “Trump’s Iowa state fair spectacle clouds DeSantis as former president is joined by Florida officials,” by AP’s Thomas Beaumont and Hannah Fingerhut … “DeSantis takes aim at Trump as 2024 rivals hold competing events at the Iowa State Fair,” by Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser

A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Common Grounds event series brings together Republican and Democrat policymakers to explore issues and challenges facing businesses and our country. Over a cup of coffee, leaders discuss legitimate policy differences and pathways to meaningful, bipartisan solutions. The U.S. Chamber believes real work can get done, and we’re ready to drive consensus on top priorities. Grab your coffee and let’s get to work.

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— Sen. MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii) on why officials were unprepared for the Maui wildfires, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I'm not going to make any excuses for this tragedy, but the attorney general has launched a review of what happened with those sirens and some of the other actions that were taken. So that is happening. And there will be time enough, I would say, for those kinds of reviews and investigations to occur. But we are really focused, as far as I'm concerned, on the need for rescue and, well, location of, we know, sadly, more bodies.” More from Kelly Garrity

— Former VP MIKE PENCE on the DOJ-appointed special counsel investigating HUNTER BIDEN, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I am hopeful that Special Counsel [DAVID] WEISS will do his job without fear or favor, but I have confidence that JIM JORDAN, Congressman [JAMES] COMER, and others will continue to do their job for the American people.”

On how he would address the DOJ if he was president: “I'm going to clean house on the whole top floor of the Justice Department.”

— Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) on his call for a challenge to Biden as the Democratic nominee, on “Meet the Press”: “It’s about how people feel. People want to turn the page. I think that’s fair to say. As a Democrat, I adore Joe Biden. He saved this country. He can cement his legacy. … The call to action is to ask the president to pass the torch. There is an extraordinary bench of people ready to go proximate, prepared for the position.”

On who he would like to see challenge Biden: “I would like to see a moderate governor, hopefully from the heartland from one of the four states that Democrats will need.” Chuck Todd: “So, GRETCHEN WHITMER? You'd like to see her. Or, is it TIM WALZ, your home state governor? TONY EVERS? Help me out here.” Phillips: “You just said a few names I think would be great. JOSH SHAPIRO, there are a number of people — JB PRITZKER. Some people have asked me that I not use their names because of this institutional fear that it might impact you down the road.”

— WILL HURD on whether he’ll sign the RNC’s loyalty pledge to appear on the debate stage, on “State of the Union”: “I'm not going to lie to get access to a microphone. I have never signed a contract without making amendments to it. … And so my goal is to hit all those requirements and force the conversation.”

A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

• “The Lost Boys of the American Right,” by NYT’s David French
• “Ohio Shows Abortion Rights is a Winner. Transphobia is a Loser,” by Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher
• “A Republican Renaissance in Virginia?” by WSJ’s Kate Bachelder Odell
• “It's time to change how we cover Elon Musk,” by Platformer’s Casey Newton
• “Ron DeSantis Wants To Win Over Parents — But He’s Focusing On The Wrong Issues,” by FiveThirtyEight’s Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
• “DeSantis, Scott, and the Allure of ‘Someone Else,’” by The Dispatch’s Chris Stirewalt
• “Free Ron DeSantis,” by WSJ’s Kim Strassel
• “Why the Ohio Special Election Backfired for the GOP,” by Daniel McGraw for The Bulwark
• “A Hidden Currency of Incalculable Worth,” by NYT’s Esau McCaulley
• “I’ve Reported on Dementia for Years, and One Image of a Prisoner Keeps Haunting Me,” by NYT’s Katie Engelhart
• “Decoding Mike Pence: The words he just can’t say,” by Roll Call’s John Bennett

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Volunteers sort out donations for those affected by the Maui wildfire at a parking lot in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii on Saturday, Aug. 12. | Yuki Iwamura/AFP via Getty Images

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. DEVASTATION IN HAWAII: “Lahaina fire death toll climbs to 93,” by the Honolulu Star Advertiser’s Christie Wilson: “Already the deadliest U.S. wildfire in over a century, officials have warned the death toll is likely to rise substantially. … [Maui Police Chief JOHN PELLETIER] said only 3% of the impacted areas had been covered by cadaver dogs from FEMA’s Urban Search & Rescue Teams, and that 12 more dogs were on their way to Maui to expedite the process of locating human remains.”

2. DEMS’ DILEMMA: As Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) once again finds himself at the center of an inquiry from federal prosecutors, Dems are in large part sticking by him publicly — though the “latest investigation into Menendez feels different to many insiders,” Matt Friedman writes. “It’s one year ahead of Menendez’s reelection race, and New Jersey Democrats don’t want to risk what should be a safe seat. There’s a backlog of ambitious North Jersey Democrats who wouldn’t take much convincing to run.”

3. HALEY’S COMMIT: “Six months into her ’24 race, Nikki Haley faces familiar challenge: Moving the needle,” by The Post and Courier’s Caitlin Byrd and Alexander Thompson: “Nationally, her polling average has barely budged, going from 3.8 percent support when she kicked off her candidacy to 3.4 percent today. In the two leadoff states of Iowa and New Hampshire, she’s stuck in the low single-digits, polling in fifth and seventh place, respectively.

“She’s watched fellow South Carolinian TIM SCOTT, who entered the race three months behind her, rise to third place in Iowa. … And in her home state of South Carolina, she’s in double-digits but still trailing Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for support. Haley brushes off the numbers, saying that the race will start to shift after Labor Day and that this moment is an all-too-familiar refrain in her own political story.”

Blunt assessment: “‘She’s not running a conservative enough campaign to win Iowa, and not running a maverick enough campaign to win New Hampshire,’ said BUZZ JACOBS, state director of JOHN McCAIN’s 2008 South Carolina campaign.”

4. FLIP-FLOPS IN AUGUST: “Republicans Wanted a Special Counsel Investigation of Hunter Biden. Now Many Oppose It,” by NYT’s Luke Broadwater and Maggie Haberman: “The reaction was a notable political development, one that underscored both how [special counsel DAVID] WEISS, a Republican, has fallen in conservative circles, and how deeply it has become ingrained in the G.O.P. to oppose the Justice Department at every turn. … But in interviews, away from social media and television appearances, the reaction of many Republicans to Mr. Weiss’s appointment was more nuanced. Privately, some in the G.O.P. were chalking up the development as a victory.”

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5. VEGAS CRAPSHOOT: “Dueling GOP presidential nominating contests in Nevada raise concerns about voter confusion,” by AP’s Gabe Stern and Christina Cassidy in Reno, Nev.: “Republicans in Nevada could have two chances next year to decide who they want to be their party’s presidential nominee. The catch: Only one will count. The Nevada GOP is insisting on holding its own caucus despite a new state law calling for a primary election, a move critics say is designed to benefit former President Donald Trump. The competing contests are likely to confuse some and require GOP campaigns to spend extra time and money educating voters in one of the earliest states to cast ballots for the presidential nomination.”

6. TRAIL MIX: “Biden is out pitching his economic wins. Arizona voters say they don’t see them,” by NBC’s Peter Nicholas and Megan Lebowitz in Nogales, Ariz.: “The president’s troubles in Arizona mirror the dilemma he faces nationally. For all the progress Biden cites when it comes to the unemployment rate and job creation, many Americans neither see nor feel it. If anything, they believe life has been getting tougher under what the president has cheekily dubbed Bidenomics.”

Related reads: “Biden and House Democrats hope to make curbing ‘junk fees’ a winning issue in 2024,” by AP’s Will Weissert … “Kamala Harris Makes Reelection Bid at Vineyard Fundraisers,” by The Vineyard Gazette’s Brooke Kushwaha and John Kennedy

7. MAIL-PATTERN BOLDNESS: “Louis DeJoy: From Trump villain to Biden’s clean energy buddy,” by Hailey Fuchs: “When Joe Biden won, it was generally assumed that his days were numbered. Now, nearly three years later, DeJoy isn’t just still standing atop the U.S. Postal Service, he’s become a critical player in Biden’s environmental agenda, striking a partnership with the president’s green guru, John Podesta, as USPS considers an environmental renaissance of its fleet.”

8. THE IRA, ONE YEAR LATER: “Biden’s climate law stokes fresh fights in the states a year after passage,” by Josh Siegel, Kelsey Tamborrino and Jessie Blaeser: “While Republicans on the campaign trail and in Congress regularly bash the law — which Biden signed a year ago Wednesday — as big-government overreach by Democrats bent on killing off fossil fuels, its benefits are disproportionately landing in their communities. And as the measure supercharges efforts to combat climate change, it’s also rekindling economies where people have felt forgotten, potentially softening how some voters view Biden as he seeks reelection.”

9. WAR IN UKRAINE: “Would F-16s Have Made the Difference in Ukraine’s Counteroffensive?” by NYT’s Lara Jakes: “Most military experts doubt that they would have, and say that Kyiv can still prevail without them.”

HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.